Oil Market Research Articles

On the question of the transformation of Iran's place in the world oil market in the 1960s and 1970s

The article examines the changing role of Iran in the global oil market after the overthrow of the democratically elected government of M. Mosaddegh and the formation of the International Oil Consortium. The role of oil revenues in the process of Iran's transformation into a regional leader and an active participant in OPEC is revealed. The Shah's policy aimed at reducing the role of the International Oil Consortium and establishing new rules for the activities of Western oil companies in Iran is analyzed.

Пространственная организация рынков продукции топливно-энергетического комплекса России

The article analyzes the markets of fuel and energy complex products in Russia, i.e. of oil, natural gas, coal, electricity, and heating energy. Among the emphasized features of the markets of fuel and energy complex products are the manifold of regulatory influences, the dependence of geographical boundaries of the markets on the development of the corresponding infrastructure, the presence of vertical and horizontal integration, the high dependence of the national markets of the complex products on the corresponding world markets. The combination of the described features on each of the markets of fuel and energy complex products forms a variety of conditions for their functioning within the boundaries of the national economy, which sets the direction of commodity flows and determines the development of the relevant transport infrastructure, which, in turn, are manifested in the spatial organization of product markets (their geographical segmentation). The research algorithm consisted of the analysis of sectoral markets based on the following parameters: properties of energy as a commodity, resource base, characteristics of producers, consumption structure, infrastructure development, and institutional conditions. Based on the combination of parameters, segments were identified for each of the fuel and energy complex product markets. The oil, natural gas, coal and heating market have two segments each: western and eastern. In the coal market, the eastern segment itself has two segments: eastern coastal and eastern mainland. The electricity market has three segments: western, eastern and northeastern. The analysis allows us to identify the western and eastern segments in each of the fuel and energy complex product markets, which are diametrically different in their characteristics. The stability of the distribution of the country’s territories by segments suggests the presence of invariants determined by the parameters of physical space, the effect of which is weakly susceptible to regulatory influences

The Wax and Wane of CPO Prices in India: A DCC Approach to Understanding Market Sentiment

This study provides a detailed analysis of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) price dynamics, focusing on the relationship between spot and future prices during significant global events, notably the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Utilizing Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) models, the research examines conditional returns and covariance, as well as the correlation trends in the Crude Palm Oil (CPO) market. The study reveals critical insights into market behavior during these tumultuous times. For instance, sharp increases in covariance during key periods suggest strong movement synchronicity between spot and future prices, potentially driven by market-altering events. The onset of COVID-19 and the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict are identified as significant influencers, disrupting global supply chains and impacting global food supplies, which in turn affect both spot and future Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices. Additionally, the research finds a dynamic correlation trend between the future and spot prices of Crude Palm Oil (CPO). Starting with a strong positive correlation in 2018, the study observes a gradual decrease in this correlation, especially after 2020. This trend indicates diverging market forces or perceptions, particularly in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict. Such fluctuations in correlation suggest varying market sentiments and expectations, which have implications for market risk assessment, hedging strategies, and speculative activities

Інвестиційне забезпечення видобутку вуглеводневої сировини в США: основні тренди, енергетичні альтернативи та екологічні детермінанти

It is substantiated that the United States are present as the main actor in the global energy market in terms of both forming the supply of energy carriers and ensuring the stability of its functioning. It is found that in recent decades, the production of hydrocarbons in the United States has been regulated by the federal government, based on conjunctural fluctuations in the world hydrocarbon market and the reformatting of the centers of gravity in global energy flows. It is found that in 2010–2022 in the United States, despite the growth of hydrocarbon production, there was a decrease in the volume of investment support for the development of the oil and gas industry. It is proved that the reduction of investment injections into oil and gas production in recent years is due to the diversification of the investment portfolio of «hydrocarbon» TNCs and the change in priorities in the development of hydrocarbon reserves. It is identified that the diversification of the investment portfolio of oil and gas companies occurs through the transfer of financial flows to the development of alternative energy and giving priority to the implementation of small, less risky megaprojects, rather than excessively risky megaprojects. It is substantiated that the United States has formed a diversified investment landscape in the field of natural gas and oil production, which includes large transnational corporations, independent oil and gas companies, financial institutions, and private investment companies. It is agreed that one of the main priorities of investment support for hydrocarbon extraction projects is the extraction of shale gas, based on its significant reserves and taking into account the emergence of new niches in the capacious market of Western Europe as a result of the imposition of sanctions against oil and gas suppliers from terrorist countries. It is verified that an effective form of investment support for shale gas extraction are public-private partnership (PPP) agreements, which provide investment in the development of the infrastructure of technological and innovation centers, which are focused on the development of advanced technologies related to the exploration, production and use of this component of hydrocarbon raw materials. This creates conditions for gaining competitive advantages in the volatile and sensitive global oil and gas market.

Энергетическая политика Индии и сотрудничество с Россией

The relatively high growth rates of GDP and real incomes of the population compared to other Asian countries, combined with the ongoing policy of industrialization and urbanization, make India one of the most attractive markets for commodities. At the same time, India is characterized by extremely low levels of motorization and per capita consumption of many goods and services, including plastic products, which determines the potential for growth in consumption of primary energy sources. Due to the progressive increase in per capita GDP in India, the poverty level is decreasing, stimulating an increase in the number of relatively well-off citizens and, as a result, the consumption of electricity, petroleum products and other energy sources. However, due to the small reserves of fossil resources, India is in dire need of them, mainly oil and gas. Among the key areas of its economy are the oil and gas production and oil and gas processing industries. The subject of the study is India's energy policy, in particular its oil and gas market. The aim of the work is to establish prospects for cooperation between Russia and India due to the fact that the latter is a fast–growing economy and is an expanding market for fossil fuels for the needs of households and industry. The article identifies the peculiarities of the development of the fuel and energy sector of India, and establishes its energy needs. India's energy policy has been reviewed in the light of the implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement, its oil and gas reserves have been identified and directions for possible diversification of their supplies have been predicted. It is concluded that due to the sanctions imposed on Russian companies and the need to diversify the supply of natural resources, foreign economic cooperation with India is of particular interest to Russia.

OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND ITS ECONOMIC IMPACT ON OMAN

Without a doubt, the economy is significantly impacted by changes in oil prices. Our study on oil price fluctuations focused in particular on the impact of oil price volatility on the economy. As discussed in the literature review section, the majority of studies indicate that there is a negative association between oil prices and economic growth. The Sultanate of Oman, in particular, is one of the oil-producing nations that uses large oil resources, which are the most crucial resource in the budget and, as a result, which numerous factors, such as the world's supply and demand as well as natural catastrophes, have an impact on oil prices. OPEC's decisions about how to evaluate these factors provide insight into price volatility and expectations. In this study, we investigate the connection between the Sultanate of Oman's GDP and oil prices. The information gathered spans 20 of years, from 1970 to 2022.he result of our comprehensive research reveals a complex relationship between Omani's economic indicators and oil prices, creating an engaging story about the complexities of the Oman economy. Our methodology, which includes panel data regression, correlation analysis, and comprehensive data analysis, provided key insights into the complex dynamics of this connection. The continuing positive relationship between oil prices and economic indicators in the Sultanate of Oman highlights and amplifies the country's vulnerability to the volatile nature of oil price fluctuations. Oman is directly affected because it is a large oil exporter, as evidenced by the noticeable impact on GDP growth rates and government revenues. The volatile fluctuations in the global oil market are intricately intertwined with Oman's economic fabric.

Oil market crashes: from the subprime crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic

Oil market crashes: from the subprime crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic

Comparative analysis of gulf cooperation council oil market with the organization of petroleum exporting countries in the 21st century

Comparative analysis of gulf cooperation council oil market with the organization of petroleum exporting countries in the 21st century

THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY POLICY ON THE FORMATION OF OIL PRICES

The relationship between monetary uncertainty and price volatility in the global crude oil market has attracted considerable attention in recent years. Understanding this relationship is extremely important for both policy makers and market participants and investors. The purpose of this article is to explore a modern approach to regime switching in order to shed light on the dynamic interaction between monetary uncertainty and price volatility in the crude oil market. If we consider that oil is one of the main sources of energy in the world, and the price of oil plays an important role in the global economy, then the formation of oil prices depends on many factors, including supply and demand, political stability in the production regions, geopolitical events, climate change and, of course, monetary policy. The scientific significance of the article lies in the fact that it allows for a deeper understanding of the relationship between the economic policy of central banks and the dynamics of commodity prices. The practical significance lies in the fact that understanding the impact of monetary policy on oil prices can be useful for both government agencies and businesses. In this research methodology, an empirical method of work was used, in which the influence of monetary uncertainty on the volatility of world crude oil prices was considered. We also touch upon the issue of political uncertainty on the price of oil during the pandemic. The relevance of this article lies in the fact that the price of oil is one of the key indicators for the global economy, the study of the impact of monetary policy on this market is important. The price of oil can influence monetary policy in various ways. For example, changes in the interest rates of central banks affect investors and their decisions to invest in oil companies. In addition, monetary policy also affects the exchange rate, which also has an impact on the price of oil. In conclusion, it can be said that studying the impact of monetary policy on oil prices is important for both science and practice, and may lead to the development of more effective methods of economic and business management.

Analyzing the development factors of the global energy market

The modern world economy, operating in the global energy crisis, is largely developing under the influence of the world energy prices. The paper researches current pricing policy in the energy market. The main development trends of the world oil market are identified and substantiated based on data from international reviews of the OPEC and OPEC+ agreements. The factors affecting the current price dynamics and production volumes of energy resources are considered. The paper determines quota dynamics for oil production by countries, and analyzes trends in pricing of the OPEC and OPEC+ agreements, the impact of the modern corona crisis on demand for energy resources. It makes conclusions regarding further development prospects of the world energy market, as well as price dynamics for the near future.

Oil and global politics after 24 February 2022

A study of the impact of oil on global politics at this time is necessary to understand the relationship between energy security, geopolitical conflicts, and economic relations, which could substantially affect the future of the global energy landscape and international relations. The purpose of this study was to analyse the impact of the oil market on geopolitical relations and develop strategies to ensure energy security and stability in the international arena. The meth- ods employed include the analytical method, classification method, functional method, statistical method, and synthesis method. The study found that the rise in oil and other energy prices after the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts led to a considerable increase in economic pressure on importing countries. It was emphasised that the development of alterna- tive energy sources has become a vital strategic step to reduce dependence on oil. For instance, expanding the use of solar and wind power can help to balance the energy mix and reduce risks from geopolitical turbulence. The study analysed the possibilities of international cooperation in the energy sector to ensure energy security and stability in the global market. It was found that synergy between countries can help reduce the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the energy market and ensure sustainable energy supplies. It was established that the transition to alternative energy sources and the de- velopment of effective energy security strategies are key factors in supporting the sustainable development of national economies in a changing geopolitical environment. The conclusion is that there is a need to intensify efforts to develop and implement a comprehensive approach to energy regulation to ensure energy stability and maintain international peace and security. The authorities, business, and other stakeholders can use the findings of this study to make strategic decisions in the field of energy and global economic relations

Procena prelivanja šokova sa tržišta nafte na tržište berza različitih industrijskih sektora u Americi - pristup kvantilnoj regresiji

The research problem of this paper examines the impact of Brent oil price shocks on stock returns of nine companies from the US market, operating in three different industrial sectors. The observation period covers 2015 to 2023. The research process involves determining the impact of shock transmission using a quantile regression approach. The results show that most of the evaluated quantile parameters are highly statistically significant, i.e. with more than 99% probability. The estimated quantile parameters have the property of being able to observe the spillover effects of shocks in different states of the economy, such as recession, normal state and expansion. The research results suggest that the spillover of shocks from the Brent oil market is most pronounced in the automotive industry sector, that is, in the companies that are most dependent on oil for energy. The significance of the research is reflected in the lack of existing research that deals with the impact of the most important commodity in the world on the prices of company shares with the application of this methodology, which is also a contribution to science. Finally, the results of this research are very relevant for making investment decisions for economic policy makers, investors and company management.

ВПЛИВ ОКРЕМИХ ФАКТОРІВ НА ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНІ РИНКИ КРАЇН ЄС

The influence of energy consumption is an outstanding criterion for economic development of any state. European countries are critically dependent on energy supplies because of a high deficit of energy carriers and an energy crisis. The energy dependence makes the energy market not so stable and rises its instability due to global challenges. This article states the subject of research as the description and trends energy factors’ dynamics and their relevance to the other factors of influence on the European economic development. The goal of the article is to analyze and measure significant factors influencing the markets of energy through the current economic development of European countries. We try to analyze the up-to-date situation with ordinary energy carriers consumption, to define the peculiarities of the influence of energy markets on macroeconomic indices. We also try to measure here the degree of influence of energy market indices on macroeconomic development. That might allow us to define the significant factors for analysis and to demonstrate the overall condition of energy markets in the economy. There are the following common scientific methods used: systematic, logical and descriptive; analysis and synthesis; statistical; economic-mathematical modelling, constructing the correlation-regression model. Basing on the analysis made, it was defined that the EU markets of energy have common feature of growing dependence, and that is why their dependence on external factors, which is associated with a significant fall in domestic production, as well as a weak differentiation of markets. The European production of the common energy resources shows a downward trend for all energy markets, that leads to the growing significance of imports. The impact of energy market factors on macroeconomic indices of European countries is defined. The correlation analysis made by us proves the strong influence of oil market on GDP growth rate in Europe. The outstanding energy dependence of European countries shows bigger correlation with external factors, however no direct correlation between energy dependence and economic development was found. The intensive dependence of Europe on energy resources import is a big problem, and the energy security factor is also of high importance for investors. Summarizing it, we declare that energy factors do not have a big impact on the development of EU GDP these days, but the proper use of energy resources is more important than their consumption. This underlines the importance of effective use of resources for the further development of the European Union economy.

Risk estimation of crude oil future price using temporal fusion transformer model

To estimate the price risk of the crude oil market more accurately, this paper applies a temporal fusion transformer (TFT) model based on the quantile loss function. The TFT model first obtains the autocorrelation in the return of crude oil through the multi-head attention and the gating mechanism. Then, the risk at different confidence levels is directly calculated by utilizing the quantile loss function. The empirical results demonstrate that the TFT model outperforms traditional models in the risk estimation of crude oil prices at 2.5% and 1% confidence levels. This suggests that the TFT model may be more suitable for extreme risk estimation. This paper contributes by pointing out the direction of incorporating deep learning models into risk estimation and inviting more in-depth research in this field.

Detection and quantification of olive oil adulteration using fluorescence spectroscopy and chemometric tools

The increasing incidence of fraud in the olive oil market, particularly through adulteration with cheaper oils, poses a major challenge for the industry. This study examines the effectiveness of fluorescence spectroscopy combined with chemometric tools as a method to detect and quantify olive oil adulteration. Chemical analyses were used to measure parameters such as specific absorption coefficients K232 and K270, peroxide value, and acidity, in accordance with International Olive Council (IOC) standards. These measurements were conducted on samples of olive oil blended with varying percentages of adulterating oils. 3D fluorescence spectra were analyzed to examine the changes induced by adulteration. The results show that free acidity and peroxide value decrease with increasing adulteration degree, while the parameters K232 and K270 increase with the degree of adulteration. Principal component analysis (PCA) was effectively used to differentiate samples based on the percentage of adulterant. A partial least squares (PLS) regression model was developed, achieving a correlation coefficient of 0.999 for predicting the percentage of adulterant in olive oil. This PLS model also proved effective in predicting oil quality parameters such as free acidity and K232 and K270 indices. The results of this study demonstrate the significant potential of fluorescence spectroscopy as a rapid and non-destructive method for olive oil authentication. PCA emerges as a powerful tool for characterizing pure oils without requiring sample preparation or destruction. Furthermore, PLS models provide accurate means to predict both the presence of adulterants and olive oil quality parameters. This approach offers a promising solution to combat fraud in the olive oil industry, ensuring product integrity and quality.

Emerging Trends in Vegetable Oil Market: Healthier Oils, Safety Challenges, and Sustainability

Emerging Trends in Vegetable Oil Market: Healthier Oils, Safety Challenges, and Sustainability

Bioactive compounds and benefits of by-products of Amazon babassu oil production: potential for dietary supplement, biomedical and food applications.

Babassu coconut (Attalea speciosa syn. Orbignya phalerata) contains an oil-rich nut and is primarily found in South America's Amazon region. Future market researchers predict an increase in the babassu oil market from USD 227.7 million in 2022 to USD 347.0 million by 2032, and the yield of babassu oil from babassu-processed waste could reach 90%. Of these, mesocarp flour is an underrated by-product used only for animal feed purposes by local producers. This comprehensive review focuses on advances in knowledge and understanding of phytochemicals from babassu oil by-products considering the mechanisms of action - covering antioxidant, antimicrobial, antiparasitic, anti-inflammatory, antithrombotic, immunomodulatory, and anticancer effects. Babassu coconut fruit contains free fatty acids, (poly)phenols, phytosterols, and triterpenes. Pytochemicals, antiparasitic and antibacterial activities of babassu mesocarp flour were shown, but fungi and viruses can get more attention. Beyond its antioxidant capacity, babassu mesocarp flour showed potential as a dietary food supplement. Aqueous suspensions of mesocarp flour with a higher preference for cancer cells than normal cells and an antithrombotic effect were also identified, probably related to the antioxidant capacity of its secondary metabolites. Mesocarp flour, a starch-rich fraction, is promising for application as biodegradable packaging to improve the oxidative stability of foods. Finally, low-added value fractions can be considered bio-waste/co-products, and their phytochemicals may attract interest for applications in medicine and nutrition. Toxicological concerns, trends, and gaps are discussed for the future of foods and related sciences.

Procurement and Predictions: Analysing Crude Palm Oil Markets in India using GARCH approach

Procurement and Predictions: Analysing Crude Palm Oil Markets in India using GARCH approach

MARKET OF AUTOMOBILE FILLING STATIONS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: DETERMINATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT VECTOR OF PJSC TATNEFT

The article analyzes the geography of automobile gas stations (gas stations) of the Russian Federation from the point of view of the structure and features of the functioning, evolution and development prospects of the gas station network, as well as the interaction of the subjects forming it. The oil and gas complex market is illustrated in the context of large Russian vertically integrated oil companies (VIOCs). Its key players and their position in the market are identified, the companies are ranked by the number of gas stations and the share of sales in total revenue as of 2022. The authors record factors for the development of the geography of the network of automobile gas stations, indicators of the dynamics of the volume of the gas station market in Russia for 2018-2022. It is noted that the network of automobile gas stations is beginning to represent a developed retail distribution network providing a wide range of services and is becoming an attractive sector for the development of vertically integrated oil companies’ business. The authors analyze the position of PJSC Tatneft in the petroleum products market. The network of gas stations of PJSC TATNEFT is studied: geography, reformatting and loyalty programs, innovative projects. It is noted that the focus on expanding the network of gas stations as “service centers” is present in the company’s development strategy until 2030.

The influence features of individual factors on EU countries’ energy markets

The energy consumption impact is an important factor in the development of countries' economies. The European region is energy-dependent due to a significant shortage of energy carriers and an energy crisis. The energy dependence weakens the energy market and increases its vulnerability to external influences. The subject of research in the article is the characteristics, objective laws, and trends of the development of energy factors that are relative to other influence factors on the economic development of European countries. And the purpose is to analyze and assess important factors influencing the energy markets on the modern economic development of European countries. The task is to analyze the current state of traditional energy resource consumption, to determine the specifics of the impact of energy markets on macroeconomic indicators. To assess the influence degree of energy market indicators on macroeconomic development, which allows to identify the important factors for analysis and to indicate the general position of energy markets in the economy there are used following general scientific methods: systematic, logical and descriptive; analysis and synthesis; statistical; economic-mathematical modeling, namely the construction of a correlation-regression model. Based on the conducted analysis, it was established that the energy markets of the EU have a general feature of increasing dependence, and therefore their sensitivity on external factors, which is associated with a significant decrease in domestic production, as well as a weak differentiation of markets. The production of the main energy resources in Europe has a downward trend for all energy markets, which leads to the increased importance of imports. The influence of energy market factors on the macroeconomic indicators of EU countries is determined. The conducted correlation analysis confirmed the significant impact of the oil market on the GDP growth rate in the EU. The high energy dependence of the EU countries indicates the increased dependence on external factors but no direct correlation between energy dependence and economic development was found. The high dependence of the EU on the import of energy resources is a significant problem, and the energy security factor is also important for investors in the EU. Conclusions: energy factors do not have a significant impact on the development of EU GDP at the current stage, and the quality use of energy resources is more important than their consumption, which emphasizes the importance of efficient use of resources for the further development of the EU economy.