Uranium Market Research Articles

Future markets for uranium — a contribution to the debate

This article assesses the validity of some recent claims that the market for uranium is likely to improve substantially during the mid- and late-1990s. Drawing on a detailed study of western world uranium supply and demand during 1991–2000, it examines three key factors which affect uranium markets — installed nuclear generating capacity, the conversion of installed capacity to uranium demand, and the interaction between uranium demand and supply. It concludes that installed capacity is likely to rise very slowly during the 1990s, that any impact of rising tails assays on demand for uranium will be balanced by countervailing effects (particularly adoption of fuel-saving techniques), and that reduction in Western world uranium supply due to mine closures will be temporary and/or will be accompanied by increased exports from Eastern Europe. On this basis the article suggests that there is little likelihood of substantial real increases in uranium prices during the 1990s.

Niger: Anatomy of a Neotraditional Corporatist State

The apparent failure of competitive party politics to take root in much of contemporary Africa has not curtailed efforts by military regimes to extend popular participation. Curiously, current scholarship does not adequately reflect the range of such initiatives.' While analysts periodically look for liberalizing trends in Africa's soldier states and are primed to consider the prospects for a return to civilian rule,2 few have examined participatory institutions under indeterminate military tutelage.3 Indeed, the literature reflects a tendency to assume that officers who tarry in government regard the modem bureaucratic army as a paragon for the organization of society as a whole.4 There is growing evidence to suggest, however, that in the future Africa's military rulers will have greater recourse to corporatist models of state-society relations as they seek to avoid a return to the barracks. Why this is so and what characteristics these structural alternatives are likely to assume are central questions addressed in this essay. Following a brief typology of corporatist systems, my purpose here is to relate the installation of corporatist modes of representation and policymaking in Africa to the quest for effectiveness and legitimacy by regimes faced with a crisis of governance which is inseparable from the international context of capitalism. This proposition will be developed more fully in a case study of neotraditional corporatism in Niger. Distinctions among several frequently occurring varieties of corporatism establish the parameters for elaborating the special case of neotraditional corporatism, a mode of governance that draws heavily on indigenous cultural patterns of authority, interest aggregation, and leader-follower relations as prime sources of legitimation. By examining Niger's recent experience with participation fostered through a five-tier hierarchy of development councils, we shall see how a corporatist-style representational system was installed by the military rulers in a two-step process. First the system was presented as transitional; it served to draw civilian constituencies into preparations for a return to constitutional government. Then, when Niger's domestic economy began wrenching from the shocks of a precipitous decline in the price and market for uranium, the existence of these purportedly transitional participatory structures preempted the formation of class-based parties or pluralist political alternatives. The. final section of our analysis, which links the onset of a crisis in Niger's political economy of development with the new politics of participation, explores the regime's recourse to corporatist intermediaries in the implementation of structural and policy reforms. Following a discussion that highlights the interactive relationship between economic policy dilemmas and the problems of governance, we conclude with a few theoretical and empirical observations about neotraditional corporatism and regime legitimation in Niger.

Uranium in the Shadow of the Worldwide Nuclear Power Crisis: A Market Adjustment Problem

This paper provides an analysis of the world market for uranium, particularly as it relates to the production of nuclear power. The major characteristics of the uranium market are first described in detail: the geographic concentration of uranium ore and production, the oligopolistic structure of the market, the nature of contracts, the unusual links between buyers and sellers in a large portion of the market created by governmental action and the role of other political factors. The period of declining average prices and excess capacity that began in 1981 is then discussed and the future of the uranium market is considered. The author shows how the market is evolving into a form somewhat closer to that ofmarkets for other minerals and fuels; henceforth the delivery price of uranium will play normal role in adjusting supply to the demand conditions that prevail in the uranium market. He aIso believes that, contrary to the optimistic views observed in the uranium industry, the market is not likely to attain an equilibrium before the latter years of the next decade.

Laser enrichment: Its impact on the market for natural uranium

Laser-enrichment technology has now advanced to the stage where its commercial implementation is likely to occur within the next five years. Its large-scale adoption could radically reduce costs associated with the expensive enrichment stage in the production of fuel for nuclear reactors, as well as reducing the total amount of uranium required as feed.

Uranium Market Issues and Outlook: ABSTRACT

Uranium Market Issues and Outlook: ABSTRACT

Spectral Discrimination of Uranium-Mineralized Breccia Pipes in Northwestern Arizona: ABSTRACT

The price of uranium is currently the lowest in more than a decade. The only type of uranium deposit that is economically viable in the depressed uranium market is such high-grade ore as the unconformity type found in Canada and Australia. Exploration for uranium-bearing breccia pipes in northwestern Arizona by both domestic and foreign companies is currently active because of the relatively high-grade ore they contain and their tendency to be polymetallic. In the US, uranium-mineralized breccia pipes are one of the few deposits that can compete in the current market. A stepwise discriminant analysis was performed on spectral data acquired from the field, laboratory, and Landsat thematic mapper (TM). The principal objectives were (1) to investigate the fundamental differences in the spectral properties of outcrops on the surface of breccia pipes and the background, (2) to choose TM bandpasses that were statistically optimum for distinguishing between breccia pipes and the background, and (3) to compare the results of the field, laboratory, and TM digital data which were acquired by different instruments having different spatial and spectral resolutions.

Conventional and unconventional uranium deposits

The history of uranium exploration illustrates that the concept of typical, or conventional deposits has been conditioned by the relative ease with which deposits could be most quickly discovered and produced, that were best able to satisfy the existing market. The concept has been less influenced by the true range of deposit types and their relative abundances, sizes and grades, than by the prevailing concept of that range. All the parameters of the complete range have not been recognized at any time. History also demonstrates that the type of uranium deposit considered “conventional” at any stage changed radically from stage to stage. The size of the uranium market has grown stepwise in quantum jumps punctuated by dormant intervals. The size categories were determined by the extent of use. When new uses for larger amounts developed, the initial attempt was to meet the demand by discovering more deposits of the “conventional” types and in the same areas. However, uranium geology was unable to satisfy quickly the new market, either because the “conventional” deposits of the former stage could not be replicated or because they were too small. Pioneer prospecting in regions theretofore considered unfavorable discovered new larger types of deposits. Thus, the earlier mined deposits were conventional only to their corresponding market, but not in the complete range of geological parameters. The changes from rich veins and radium market to sandstone impregnations and military market and then to “unconformity-related” masses and power market were so radical that at no stage should the truly conventional types of deposits be considered well known. Scrutiny of the status of uranium geology at any stage reveals that geological relations had been described which indicated the existence of new classes of larger ore deposits. However, their significance was not generally recognized, and they did not assist in the subsequent discoveries. The current analysis of unconventional uranium deposits was initiated with the goal of recognizing the next generation of “conventional” deposits in the data mass accumulated from the sandstone impregnation era. Unfortunately results were still unpublished when the unconformity-related deposits became well established and the uranium market again declined. Nevertheless, the descriptions should be valuable if the established evolution trend continues, as suggested by recognition of a still newer and larger type represented by Roxby Downs.

Strong Rise Forecast in Global Uranium Demand

Taken at face value, the near-term prospects for uranium suppliers seem reasonably good, according to the Uranium Institute. In its latest review (the fourth to date) of the global uranium market, the London-based institute projects demand at the end of the 20th century to fuel commercial nuclear electricity-generating stations throughout the noncommunist countries at about 52,000 metric tons, an increase of almost 24% from the 42,000 metric tons or so used last year. The Uranium Institute was set up in 1975; its members comprise a number of bodies with interests in the nuclear fuel cycle in Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Finland, France, Gabon, Italy, Japan, Namibia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the U.K., the U.S., and West Germany, as well as Euratom, a sister organization of the European Economic Community. In the year 2000, West European uranium use will account for 40% (20,800 metric tons) of the global noncommunist total. Next will come the ...

Short-Term Price Formation in the U.S. Uranium Market: A Comment

The recent paper in The Energy Journal by A. D. Owen (1985) provided another important example of an econometric relationship for short-term pricing very similar to those presented by Fisher, Cootner, and Baily (1972) for copper, and Banks (1971) for refined zinc. This short comment merely adds an observation to the pricing behavior discussed by Owen. Other useful presentations of this topic are Owen (1983), and Stephany, Bauder, and Lurf (1981).

The results of exploration for unconformity-type uranium deposits in east-central Minnesota

East-central Minnesota is one of the few areas in the United States with geologic characteristics grossly similar to provinces in Canada and Australia that host high-grade, large tonnage, unconformity-type uranium deposits. These deposits constitute about 25 percent of the world's reasonably assured reserves of uranium. They commonly carry grades ranging from 0.2 to greater than 5 percent U/sub 3/O/sub 8/. In addition, the uranium is often accompanied by economic quantities of nickel, cobalt, gold, and silver. Their large size and high grade make these deposits particularly attractive exploration targets in the typically unstable uranium market of recent years. This report is a synthesis of much of the information collected by many geologists who explored the region and from my own experience in the area. Much of the exploration data and drill core from various private companies, now stored with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, was available for this review.

Short-Term Price Formation in the U.S. Uranium Market

Since the establishment of a private market for uranium in the United States in the late 1960s, the industry's fluctuating fortunes have been reflected in the short-term price of uranium as represented by NUEXCO's "exchange value."' Exchange values are current prices for current or near-term delivery. While NUEXCO emphasizes that its exchange value is not a "spot" price in the usual sense of the word, it still is generally regarded as an indicator of uranium spot (short-term) market price levels.

Uranium resource appraisal: Past trends and outlook for adequacy of supply

As uranium has practically no other industrial uses besides electricity generation, demand is determined by the requirements and stockpiling policies of electric utilities. The uranium market has experienced strong fluctuations and is currently affected by the reductions in nuclear forecasts resulting from the slowdown in electricity demand. Analysing supply/demand indicators proves, however, that in retrospect the development has been relatively smooth and it appears that oversupply is more a consequence of overly optimistic short-term expectations. In the future, especially in the long term, nuclear power policies continue to be concerned with striking a proper balance between increasing production capability and development of new reactor technologies which would be less dependent on the availability of uranium. A bounding scenario approach is applied in this article to the assessment of adequacy of supply under varying assumptions on the total installed nuclear capacity, available resource base and attainable production capability.

Deadly Gambits (review)

BOOK REVIEWS 289 None of this is particularly new material, but it is a new way of looking at U.S. nuclear policy. Furthermore, Krepon does make some suggestions for breaking the stalemate. Hope rests on the alliance of the two operationalist groups on such issues as survivability, parity, and reductions. Combined with strong presidential leadership and an effort on the part of both superpowers to isolate arms control from their other competitive endeavors, this would, in the author's opinion, move the two dominant nuclear powers closer to an arms control agreement. Unfortunately, Krepon does not tell the reader how these lofty goals can be attained. One would expect more concrete details from the author, a veteran observer of the Washington political and bureaucratic scene. Deadly Gambits. By Strobe Talbott. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1984. Reviewed by Seth Arenstein, M.A. candidate, SAIS. Strobe Talbott's new book, Deadly Gambits, has all the elements of a successful novel. It has an action-packed plot, lots of backroom dealings, complex characters including a ruthless but clever bureaucrat, a wise old negotiatior, and a president whose lack of interest in arms control leads him to doodle during high level meetings on the subject (his favorite etchings being cowboys and horses). Unfortunately, this book is not a fictionalized account of politics but a blow-byblow account of the Reagan administration's handling ofthe SALT and START negotiations. Talbott's task—explaining and analyzing the way the various proposals and negotations proceeded—is not an easy one. It requires a clear knowledge of strategy, politics, and the technical capabilities of the weapons involved. Talbott has all of these under his belt. He also has a clear and flowing style that makes the subject comprehensible to neophytes as well as students of security studies. From an academic standpoint, however, one must be wary of this book, for Talbott does not reveal his sources. For this reason the reader is left with many unanswerable questions about the reliability of his "inside" information. This caution aside, one comes away from Deadly Gambits with the worrisome feeling that we should not expect much in arms control from the present administration , since, as Talbott explains, its motto is: "Rearm now, disarm later, if ever." The International Uranium Market. By Thomas Neff. Cambridge, Mass.: BaIlinger Publishing Company, 1984. Reviewed by Bill Valdez, M.A. candidate, SAIS. The past decade has witnessed extreme turbulence in the little-known world of international uranium marketing. High expectations followed the 1973 opec oil embargo and led to an explosion ofexploration and production as a result ofthe belief that nuclear power would be the only solution to the world's energy shortfall. The 1979 recession and Three Mile Island accident later dampened those hopes, causing a consequent depression in the international production and sale of uranium. Until Thomas Neff wrote this account of the international uranium industry's violent ups and downs, interested observers have had to rely on ...

The In-Place Leaching of Uranium at Denison Mines

With to day's soft uranium market and the mining of high-grade open-pit deposits, a new technology to reduce the operating cost to recover relatively low-grade underground reserves of uranium was required.The biological aspects of bacterial leaching of pyritic uranium ore was well known. Blasting technology has advanced to a stage where relatively predictable results as to fragmentation and sizing of ore were possible. Based on this knowledge and the layout and disposition of the Denison orebody, a feasibility study was undertaken to determine the viability of in-place underground leaching of vast deposits of low-grade reserves which were not economically recoverable. In addition to these low-grade deposits, chloric ore not conventionally recoverable because of problems created in the hydrometallurgical plant such as high acid consumption and blinding of the drum filters, was also studied as to bacterial leaching amenability. Encouraging test results have led to a large-scale demonstration using known technology. This technology, developed initially by government labs and refined in practice, has allowed Denison to recover 80 tonnes of uranium from in-place leaching in 1983. Improvements on present methods are being investigated and will continue to be studied in the future. An ambitious research program is planned to optimize fragmentation technology, recovery potential and environmental problems. Acknowledgment is given to the many authors and investigators who have contributed to the development of bacterial leaching as a recovery method for uranium ores.

The In-Place Leaching of Uranium at Denison Mines

With to day's soft uranium market and the mining of high-grade open-pit deposits, a new technology to reduce the operating cost to recover relatively low-grade underground reserves of uranium was required.The biological aspects of bacterial leaching of pyritic uranium ore was well known. Blasting technology has advanced to a stage where relatively predictable results as to fragmentation and sizing of ore were possible. Based on this knowledge and the layout and disposition of the Denison orebody, a feasibility study was undertaken to determine the viability of in-place underground leaching of vast deposits of low-grade reserves which were not economically recoverable. In addition to these low-grade deposits, chloric ore not conventionally recoverable because of problems created in the hydrometallurgical plant such as high acid consumption and blinding of the drum filters, was also studied as to bacterial leaching amenability. Encouraging test results have led to a large-scale demonstration using known technology. This technology, developed initially by government labs and refined in practice, has allowed Denison to recover 80 tonnes of uranium from in-place leaching in 1983. Improvements on present methods are being investigated and will continue to be studied in the future. An ambitious research program is planned to optimize fragmentation technology, recovery potential and environmental problems. Acknowledgment is given to the many authors and investigators who have contributed to the development of bacterial leaching as a recovery method for uranium ores.

Uranium Exploration in 1970s and 1980s, Lessons for the Future: ABSTRACT

During the period 1974-83, the uranium industry spent $1.8 billion on domestic exploration, including 264 million ft of surface drilling. Exploration activities reached a high level in 1978-79, and have declined each year since. This effort was largely concentrated in the Colorado Plateau, Wyoming basins, and the south Texas coastal plain where ore deposits were located in the vicinity of producing mines. Significant new deposits also were found adjacent to producing areas, in inactive districts, and in frontier areas. Discoveries in nonsandstone environments in Canada, Australia, and Mexico gave impetus to exploration for similar deposits in the United States. The rapid decline in the uranium market caused many well-planned exploration programs to be cancelled just as th y were getting under way. However, this past cycle of exploration has shown that (1) world class deposits exist in the Appalachians and in the Great Plains, (2) concepts of mineral belts are often oversimplified, (3) deposits in collapsed pipe structures are more widespread than originally thought, (4) large deposits can be found in old, inactive districts, and (5) nonsandstone environments throughout the United States appear to be attractive exploration targets. The large amount of geologic information now available from the Department of Energy's National Uranium Resource Evaluation Program, and from the other sources should aid in the development of geologic models before the next increased demand for uranium. End_of_Article - Last_Page 845------------

Potential Exploration Targets for Roxby Downs-Olympic Dam Type Mineral Deposits: ABSTRACT

The Olympic Dam deposit near Roxby Downs, central South Australia, appears to be another type of sediment-hosted stratabound ore deposit. It contains copper, gold, silver, uranium, and rare earths, and in terms of present market prices, is valued at over $100 billion, making it one of the world's most valuable deposits. When brought on line in 1988, the projected production of 4,000 tons/year of U3O8 as a by-product will have a significant impact on the world uranium market. The deposit is hosted in middle Proterozoic rocks in a deep, small basin within the Gawler craton, and is overlain by 350 m (1,148 ft) of unmineralized late Proterozoic miogeoclinical Adelaidean sediments on the Stuart shelf. The nearest host rocks are no closer than 150 km (93 mi). According to Western Mining Corporation, the discovery resulted from regional considerations, with target selection being decided by nearly superimposed gravity and magnetic highs identified from detailed geophysical studies. The present study is a synthesis and integration of large amounts of geological, geophysical, and geochemical data available from the South Australian Department of Mines and Energy, mining companies, and universities. The presence of a probable analog deposit at Mt. Painter, approximately 270 km (168 mi) east-northeast of Olympic Dam, available for field study and sampling, makes possible the testing of ideas and hypotheses. The exposed Gawler craton and surface and drill core samples from Mt. Painter have supplied materials for further study. Plate tectonic reconstructions of the Gawler craton make it possible to apply Olympic Dam genetic models to other continents. The present study undertakes this application to the United States resulting in several areas being interesting targets. End_of_Article - Last_Page 853------------

Book Review

Abstract The International Uranium Market Thomas L Neff. Ballinger Cambridge, Mass, 1984. 347 pages. “Cut and run: the assault on Canada's forests”. By Jaime Swift, Between the Lines, 427 Bloor Street West, Toronto, Ontario 1983.

Advanced converters and reactors

As Western Europe and most countries of the Asia-Pacific region (except Australia) have only small natural uranium resources, they must import nuclear fuel from the major uranium supplier countries. The introduction of advanced converter and breeder reactor technology allows a fuel utilization of a factor of 4–100 higher than with present low converters (LWRs) and will make uranium-importing countries less vulnerable to price jumps and supply stops in the uranium market. In addition, breeder-reactor technology will open up a potential that can cover world energy requirements for several thousand years. The enormous development costs of advanced converter and breeder technologies can probably be raised only by highly industrialized countries, which have made nuclear power one of the mainstays of their energy programs. Those highly industrialized countries that have little or no uranium resources (Western Europe, Japan) will probably be the first to introduce this advanced reactor technology on a commercial scale. A number of small countries and islands will need only small power reactors with inherent safety capabilities, especially in the beginning of their nuclear energy programs. For economic reasons, the fuel cycle services should not be built up in such small countries or on islands, but rather should come from large reprocessing centers of countries having sufficiently large nuclear power programs or from international fuel cycle centers. Only in this way can the economic benefits of nuclear power be realized in small countries or islands of the Asia-Pacific region.

The world uranium industry

Abstract In the 1970s there was a worldwide boom in uranium exploration and recovery. Since then the accident at the Three Mile Island reactor in the US, the global recession and the subsequent reduction of the demand for electricity has led to a de facto moratorium on the construction of new nuclear plants. The result has been a severely depressed uranium market and large stockpiles, especially in the US, which has the largest nuclear-electric generating capacity among the OECD countries. From this perspective A D Owen analyses the world uranium market today, and particularly the configuaration of ownership and control in the industry.