Marital Fertility Rates Research Articles

Fertility, Biology, and Behavior: An Analysis of the Proximate Determinants

Fertility, Biology, and Behavior: An Analysis of the Proximate Determinants presents the proximate determinants of natural fertility. This book discusses the biological and behavioral dimensions of human fertility that are linked to intermediate fertility variables. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of the mechanisms through which socioeconomic variables influence fertility. This text then examines the absolute and relative age-specific marital fertility rates of selected populations. Other chapters consider the trends in total fertility rates of selected countries, including Colombia, Kenya, Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, France, and United States. This book discusses as well the effects of deliberate marital fertility control through contraception and induced abortion. The final chapter deals with the management of sex composition and implications for birth spacing. This book is a valuable resource for reproductive physiologists, social scientists, demographers, statisticians, biologists, and graduate students with an interest in the biological and behavioral control of human fertility.

Proxies for birth control. Comment on Kelly and Cutright, Sociological Focus, April 1983.

Kelly and Cutright (1983), using regression techniques, conclude that birth control is among the more important determinants of Swedish illegitimacy. To derive this conclusion, they use changes in the marital fertility of wives aged 35-39 as a proxy for birth control. They maintain that annual change in the marital fertility rate of wives aged 35-39 is not likely to be greatly influenced by annual change in factors other than birth control. The "argument" appears to derive from the "desired family size" model of childbearing--a basic assumption of social demography. In it simplest form it states that most couples do not practice birth control until they reach a preconceived goal, or desired family size. It thus implies that a change in family size preferences will most affect the birth control practices of the oldest reproductive age groups. The simple form of the model has been questioned by the failure of Western couples to reproductively compensate for a major proportion of their child deaths, by the proportions of Western couples who say they would have preferred larger families than they actually had, by the predictive inadequacy of family size preferences, and by suggestions that age may be the more important determinant of reproduction. As a result some demographers now concede its inadequacy. Others are trying to relax its assumptions, with as yet problematic success. Essentially every Western fertility decline to date has been characterized by an increasing concentration of childbearing in the youngest age groups. In discussing this pattern social demographers have maintained that it could only have come about by a decline in family size preferences. This then is the standard argument supporting Kelly and Cutright's proxy for birth control. The authorities who offer it generally ignore the difficulties with the desired family size model and simply assert without justification that couples do in fact conform to it. Data on the age patterns of chronic disease and on the reproductive effects of environmental stressors suggest that the modern age pattern of fertility could also be produced by a deteriorating environment. Kelly and Cutright are incorrect in asserting that factors other than voluntary birth control could not be responsible for changes in fertility at ages 35-39. At best they may argue that their proxy is uniquely definitive provided that the desired family size model can be saved and provided the health of Western populations has not been compromised by technological change. At issue is a debate between what Dunlap calls the human exemptionalist and the ecological world views.

Marriage and Marital Fertility: A Further Decomposition of Their Effects in the Study of Levels and Changes in Birth Rate

This study analyzed the effects of the volume of married women the volume of marital fertility and the interconnection between the pattern of married women and the pattern of marital fertility on levels and changes in the birthrate in India as a whole and in 10 selected states. The index of the birthrate was measured as the extent to which the birthrate in a given population and a standard population differed from each other. The standard population in this study included the proportion of married women to the total population in the state of Kerala and the age-specific marital fertility rate in the state of Maharashtra in 1971. Overall India required a further 28% decline to attain the birthrate of the standard population. Despite high crude birthrates the analysis suggests that all states except Rajasthan made substantial progress in the 1961-71 period in controlling fertility. The pattern of married women changed in a direction condusive to a lower birthrate in most states but especially in the southern states. The volume of marital fertility was the most important factor in the change in the birthrate in all states. This can be further reduced by increasing the proportion of couples protected by family planning. A favorable age distribution of family planning acceptors also helped to achieve a greater reduction in the birthrate/unit increase in the proportion of couples protected. (summary in FRE)

Evidence of increasing natural fertility in Taiwan.

A comparison of age-specific marital fertility experience of 3 successive birth cohorts in Taiwan (1921-25, 1926-30, and 1934-38) indicates that later cohorts have experienced progressively higher rates of natural fertility at each age from 15-19 to 35-39 years. Age-specific martial fertility for all 3 cohorts has been essentially natural up to ages 25-29 years, at which point it has become progressively more modified by deliberate fertility regulation. At ages 20-24 years, the 1934-38 cohort experienced 14% more fertility than the 1926-30 cohort and 20% more fertility than the 1921-25 cohort. This increase in natural fertility took place largely during the 1950s, a period of dramatic improvements in health, nutrition, and living conditions in Taiwan. However, the observed total marital fertility rate by age 35-39 years fell from 6.443 for the 1921-25 cohort to 6.154 for the 1926-30 cohort and 6.024 for the 1934-38 cohort, representing a decline in fertility of 4.5% between the 1st and 2nd cohorts and 6.5% between the 2nd and 3rd cohorts. Overall, these findings support the hypothesis of rising natural fertility in the early stages of modernization and the fertility transition as a result of improved health and nutrition and changes in lactation practices. It is only when the increase in natural fertility levels off and the practice of fertility regulation expands that a secular decline in fertility is observed.

Fertility, Biology, and Behavior: An Analysis of the Proximate Determinants.

Fertility, Biology, and Behavior: An Analysis of the Proximate Determinants presents the proximate determinants of natural fertility. This book discusses the biological and behavioral dimensions of human fertility that are linked to intermediate fertility variables. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of the mechanisms through which socioeconomic variables influence fertility. This text then examines the absolute and relative age-specific marital fertility rates of selected populations. Other chapters consider the trends in total fertility rates of selected countries, including Colombia, Kenya, Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, France, and United States. This book discusses as well the effects of deliberate marital fertility control through contraception and induced abortion. The final chapter deals with the management of sex composition and implications for birth spacing. This book is a valuable resource for reproductive physiologists, social scientists, demographers, statisticians, biologists, and graduate students with an interest in the biological and behavioral control of human fertility.

The decline of marital fertility in the late nineteenth century: The case of England and Wales

This paper deals with two kinds of theoretical approach the explanation of fertility control during the nineteenth century and considers two forms of empirical analysis. Explanations which emphasize the role of the changing structural context (industrialization and urbanization for example) are contrasted with those which make use of behavioural interpretations in which the decision-making of individual couples is paramount. Data for the registration districts of England and Wales in 1861 and 1891 are used in the empirical analyses. The authors also attempt to estimate social-class-specific marital fertility rates for three English towns between 1851 and 1871 by using data from the census enumerators books. The results of these analyses confirm the complexity of the processes involved in the secular decline of marital fertility and suggest the importance of the collective biography approach for the study of individuals motivations and behaviour patterns. (EXCERPT)

Fertility and Economic Change in Eighteenth and Nineteenth Century Europe: A Comment

There is a sensible economic interpretation for the rise in English fertility in the eighteenth century and the subsequent decline in the nineteenth century. Smith attributes changing fertility rates in England to the process of household formation. An economic interpretation means that the long-run increase and decline in fertility can be related to changes in the economic enviroment that influence marriage and fertility behavior. There is a positive association between population growth and the beginnings of industrialization. A demographic increase in fertility in the latter half of the eighteenth century despite the fall in real wages is attributed to a continuation of the earlier trend. Another explanation is the growth of rural industry. This contributed to lower age at marriage. It may have led to higher marital fertility rates. Industrialization introduced higher marital fertility. Children became an economic asset. Where industrialization per se did not stimulate fertility the opportunity to migrate toward industrializating regions may have. Proletarianization is the shift from self-employment with control over production means to wage work for others. In late eighteenth century England industrialization led to further proletarianization of the work force. The decline in fertility is explained by Caldwell; a shift in wealth flows in families with children leads to labor fertility. Families could have more productive children by educating them for professions. Type of employment influenced fertility through its effect on family structure. Urbanization--as distinct from industrialization--acted to lower fertility as did child labor laws and the rising importance of education.

Unwanted Fertility in Latin America and the Caribbean

An analysis of World Fertility Survey data from Costa Rica the Dominican Republic Guyana Jamaica and Paraguay shows that the estimated % of women likely to have at least 1 unwanted birth within 20 years of their last wanted birth ranges from 35% in Paraguay to 90% in Jamaica. The average number of unwanted births that a woman would have within 20 years following her last wanted birth at prevailing fertility rates is estimated to be about 1 birth in Costa Rica and Paraguay less than 2 in Guyana and more than 2 in the Dominican Republic and Jamaica. Fertility has declined in each of the 5 countries during the past 2 decades according to a comparison of total marital fertility rates (TMFRs) calculated for a real cohort of women married or in a consensual union for an average of 25 years (representing completed fertility) and for a synthetic cohort representing womens fertility experience over the past 5 years. The decrease was greatest in Costa Rica where the TMFR for the real cohort is 7.85 children/woman and for the synthetic cohort is 4.16; the decrease was smallest in the Dominican Republic where the TMFR varies from 7.07 children/woman for the real cohort to 6.30 for the synthetic cohort. Fertility declines in each country are probably due to decreases in wanted fertility as unwanted fertility usually decreases slightly or even increases between the real and synthetic cohorts. Dividing the TMFRs for the 2 cohorts according to wanted and unwanted fertility and analyzing them according to a number of different characteristics shows several to be associated with higher fertility: women who marry or enter a nonmarital union before age 20 have higher overall fertility and a greater proportion of unwanted births than women who enter their 1st union at a later age. Likewise women who have 3 or more births in the 1st 5 years after entering their 1st union who have had 3 or fewer years of education who live in rural areas who are involved in a common law union or whose husbands are farmers or unskilled laborers tend to have more children and larger proportions of unwanted births. The results show that in the 5 countries studied although marital fertility has fallen the level of unwanted fertility remains about the same as it was 20 or more years before; thus the proportion of births that are unwanted has actually risen on average. If all unwanted births were prevented total marital fertility would be reduced by more than 30% in the Dominican Republic Guyana and Jamaica by over 20% in Costa Rica and by more than 10% in Paraguay. These patterns are similar to those found in 3 other Latin American countries. (authors modified) (summaries in Eng SPA FRE)

Trends in Total and Marital Fertility for Black Americans, 1886–1899

Total fertility rates and age-specific marital fertility rates are estimated for the urban and rural black populations during the last fourteen years of the nineteenth century. The data source is a 1-in-750 sample of households from the 1900 census manuscripts. The results show sharp differences in the levels of urban and rural reproduction, as well as differences in the timing of the well-known black fertility transition. Calculation of Coale-Trussell m-values suggests that, up to 1899, rural blacks were essentially a "natural fertility" population while urban residents apparently had a history of family limitation. These findings support the inference that at least some segments of the black population were practicing birth control before the turn of the twentieth century.

Seasonal Patterns of Fertility Measures: Theory and Data

Abstract Seasonal patterns of five measures of reproduction in a population of married women are considered: marital fertility rate, pregnancy prevalence, mean open birth interval, mean closed birth interval-birth, and mean closed birth interval-woman. In a model the fertility rate is assumed to follow a known trigonometric curve; then the lag and relative variability of the other measures are considered in comparison with the fertility rate curve. The predictions from this theoretical work, when compared with observed patterns and trigonometric regression results for each measure in data from Bangladesh, are shown to be quite accurate. Implications for fertility analyses are discussed.

Seasonal patterns of fertility measures: theory and data.

The distribution of births by month exhibits a seasonal pattern in most populations. The monthly marital fertility rate for an area of Bangladesh provides a good example of the seasonal periodicity. Seasonal patterns of measures of reproduction in a population of married women are considered. Equations are developed that predict the seasonal patterns of these alternative measures under the assumption that the fertility rate (R) follows a trigonometric curve. This is followed by an empirical analysis of the measures in a Bangladesh population that has a pronounced seasonal fertility. The investigation is intended both to validate the theoretical framework developed in the 1st part of the paper as well as to determine whether seasonal variation in actual populations is sufficiently large to affect the alternative measures significantly. 4 measures are considered: pregnancy prevalence (PP)--the proportion of married women who are pregnant at the survey date; mean open birth interval (MOI)--the time from the last live birth to the date of the survey for parous women and from the time of marriage to the date of the survey for nulliparous women; mean closed interval-birth (MCIB)--the mean interval between the last 2 live births for married women who have a birth in the period immediately preceding the survey date; and mean closed interval-woman (MCIW)--the mean interval between the last 2 live births for women who have had at least 2 children by the time of the survey. It is assumed that the seasonal pattern of the fertility rate of a population follows a cosine curve and that there is no trend in annual fertility from year to year. The lag and relative variability of the other measures are considered in comparison with the fertility rate curve. The predictions from this theoretical effort, when compared with observed patterns and trigonometric regression results for each measure in data from Bangladesh, are shown to be quite accurate. The figure and regression results show that R, PP, and MOI have definite seasonal periodicity, but MCIB and MCIW do not display any seasonal patterns. If there is a secular trend in fertility in addition to seasonality, these relationships between the seasonal patterns of the measures may no longer hold. There is a disadvantage to using closed interval measures, for they are unable to detect effects of limiting of childbearing in a population since they are based only on information from women who have births.

The Decline in Unwanted Fertility, 1971-1976

Focuses on trends in unwanted fertility by comparing rates derived from the 1973 and 1976 National Surveys of Family Growth. Rates of unwanted fertility have been calculated based on women at risk of unwanted childbearing controlling for the length of exposure to such risk. Three indexes are presented indicating what the experience would be in a hypothetical cohort subject to the rates prevailing during the 30 months preceding each survey. There is clear evidence of a significant decline in unwanted fertility during the 1st 1/2 of the 1970s. For married women the chances of having an unwanted birth by 15 years since the last wanted birth declined from 0.21 implicit in the 1971-73 period to 0.11 in the 1974-76 period. The cumulative number of unwanted births declined from 0.38 to 0.20 births per woman. This decline affected all subgroups (by race hispanic origin region metropolitan status education income and religion) and was roughly equally distributed throughout the social structure. Differentials continued to persist however with higher rates of unwanted fertility among blacks Hispanics and those least educated and most poor. Overall total marital fertility rates declined from 2.19 births per woman in 1971-73 to 1.91 in 1974-76. The proportion consisting of unwanted births dropped from 14.4% to 10.0%. Additionally 17.3% of actual total births experienced by the cohort married 25 years by 1976 were reported as unwanted in contrast with 10.0% for the synthetic cohort experience in 1974-76. Black women had the highest proportion of unwanted births in 1974-76 and more educated and affluent women the lowest. Without unwanted fertility recent black marital fertility would average 1.57 children rather than 1.99. The wanted fertility among whites would be 1.75. Women with less than a high school education would have 2.11 children rather than 2.52 and women educated beyond high school level would have 1.47 rather than 1.57 children.

The Impact of the Female Marriage Squeeze and the Contraceptive Revolution on Sex Roles and the Women's Liberation Movement in the United States, 1960 to 1975

This paper argues that the advent of the Womens Liberation Movement was very much interconnected to the revolution in contraceptive technology which began in 1960 and a marked shift in the ratio of males to females at marriageable age a change which took place in the late 1950s and early 1960s. The former change reduced the number of women in the traditional role of wife and mother; the latter not only had the same effect but also reduced the benefits or compensation to be obtained from following that role. These 2 changes not only helped spawn the Womens Liberation Movement but also influenced the proportion of women who married the divorce rate the marital fertility rate the illegitimacy ratio and male-female differences both in education and in labor force participation. (Authors)

The Nutrition Fertility Link: An Evaluation of the Evidence

The determinants of age-specific marital fertility rates in non-contracepting populations are discussed and the physiological link between nutrition and reproduction in women who are chronically malnourished rather than famished are examined. Initial attention is directed to menarche and menopause for these set the outer bounds to the time of childbearing. This is followed by a discussion of the determinants of birth interval. Birth interval and its components are of primary concern because if populations are to fit different numbers of births into similar childbearing spans the intervals between these births must vary. There is reason to believe that the age of menarche might be affected by the level of nutrition. In some countries where nutrition has remained inadequate the age of menarche is comparatively high. Like the age at menarche the age at menopause is likely to have had little influence on overall fertility in Europe. The meager evidence available suggests that the mean age at last birth appears to vary little among populations which do not practice birth control. The length of postpartum anovulation the period after a birth when there is no ovulation is a primary determinant of variation in the length of the birth interval. Research in which the direct measurement of the duration of breastfeeding was possible found that breastfeeding was the primary determinant of the length of postpartum amenorrhea. Researchers in Bangladesh and in Guatemala have found a slight negative relation between nutritional status and the duration of postpartum amenorrhea.

Abortions Averted by Sterilization in Korea: 1977-1978

tBased on preliminary estimates from J. McCarthy, work in progress; see also: M. Gomez, Female Sterilization in Costa Rica, paper presented at Workshop on Methodological Aspects of Demographic Analysis of Sterilization, Honolulu, Sept. 1979. tC. F. Westoff, N. Goldman, J. McCarthy and M. Choe, see reference 1. According to a recent analysis of the history of contraceptive sterilization in the Republic of 1 81 percent of married couples will be protected by the procedure from the risk of unwanted childbearing by the time they have been married 25 years, if current marriage-duration-specific rates of sterilization continue. These data indicate a rate of sterilization adoption far higher than those found in other countries where sterilization has become popular (see Table 1). 81 percent figure involves a synthetic calculation projecting a recent period when there was a large increase in use of sterilization in Korea; since this rate of increase is unlikely to continue, the ultimate actual prevalence rate will undoubtedly be lower. Nevertheless, even the simple, or actual, percentages sterilized by the time of the 1978 survey indicate that about one-fifth of those married 10 years, and nearly one-quarter of those married 15 years, had already elected contraceptive surgery. * Despite these high sterilization rates, we estimate that only an average of 0.30 births per woman were being averted by contraceptive sterilization during the 1977-1978 period; that is, the total marital fertility rate at 25 years' duration would have been 3.55 rather than the observed 3.25 births per woman. f Why do such high rates of sterilization appear to have such a minimal effect on fertility? As indicated in Table 1, several other countries (Fiji,2 Panama,3 Sri Lanka4) with lower rates of sterilization at the earlier durations than those found in the most recent Korean survey5 showed more births averted. This was the first puzzle posed by these estimates. second puzzle was that in other countries examined, but not in couples who elected sterilization had a history of considerably higher fertility than couples with the same length of exposure to risk of childbearing who were using other methods of contraception or using no method at all (see Table 2, page 61). In there is evidence of only slight selectivity for high fertility among couples choosing sterilization. explanation for both of these puzzles lies in the very high abortion rates in Korea. remainder of this paper describes the interrelations of abortion, sterilization and fertility based on data from the 1978 Korea Fertility Survey. Abortion: Trends and Prevalence There are two possible explanations for the fact that marital fertility has declined sharply in Korea in recent years and that sterilization appears to be making only a minor contribution to this decline: Either more Korean couples are using more effective contraception or the abortion rate has increased. As may be seen in Table 3 (page 61), an increase in use of effective contraception does not seem to have been a major factor, at least for the five years from 1973 to 1978. Following an increase from 18 to 22 percent between Charles F. Westoff is Director of the Office of Population Research and Maurice P. During '22 Professor of Demographic Studies and Sociology at Princeton University. This article is part of a larger analysis of the demographic history of sterilization in the Republic of Korea by Dr. Westoff. Noreen Goldman, Siew-Ean Khoo and Minja Kim Choe, The Recent Demographic History of Sterilization in Korea, to be published in a forthcoming issue of Perspectives. It was prepared partly during the author's visit to the East-West Population Institute in Honolulu and was supported by funds provided by the Office of Population of the U.S. Agency for International Development. author is grateful for the critical comments of Dr. Goldman and to Minja Kim Choe for programming assistance. *See Appendix 1, p. 63, for the formal definitions of simple and synthetic rates.

Fertility and marriage in a nineteenth-century industrial city: Philadelphia, 1850-1880.

This paper examines age-specific and differential fertility, both marital and total, and nuptiality for census samples of white Philadelphia families headed by native white Americans, Germans, and Irish for 1850–1880. Using Philadelphia Social History Project data, own-children techniques are employed to construct age-standardized child-woman ratios and age-specific total and marital fertility rates. Conclusions are that the low fertility among native whites was due to both low marital fertility and later marriage; that rapid declines in marital fertility occurred among second generation migrants; and that variations existed in marital fertility across occupational groupings within ethnic groups.

The theory of change and response: an application to Puerto Rico, 1940 to 1970.

Summary This study demonstrates that even the complex and much misunderstood demographic transition in Puerto Rico can be understood with the aid of the Theory of Change and Response. Analysis of census and vital statistics in Puerto Rico by decade for the rural and urban sectors reveals a wide range of demographic responses. The 1940's were characterized by rural/urban migration, urban emigration, and moderate reductions in urban marital fertility. There was no decline in rural marital fertility during the 1940's. Contrary to expectations, rural fertility fell very little during the 1950's, and the rate of decline of urban fertility was reduced. The decline in the urban general marital fertility rate was smaller than in the 1940's (15 against 23 per cent), despite a highly publicized development programme and rapid growth in gross national product. This occurred because there was a ready emigration outlet (to the mainland United States), and because emigration was preferred to a reduction of marital fert...

Quantitative aspects of marriage, fertility and family limitation in nineteenth century America: Another application of the coale specifications

This paper deals with three aspects of the decline in the fertility of white women in the United States from 1800 to 1920. The first concerns the portion of the secular decline in the total fertility rate which was due to changes in marriage rates and the portion due to decreases in marital fertility rates. The second concerns the fraction of couples in the nineteenth century who acted effectively to reduce their fertility and the third deals with the importance of abortion as a family-limiting practice among white couples in the nineteenth century.

Fertility Patterns and Trends Among the Old Order Amish

Summary Using statistics from an Amish census, a survey of couples, and a family genealogy, we examine trends in Old Order Amish fertility during this century. We also examine factors which might explain variations in fertility. We find that Amish fertility has remained high and that there is no evidence of a downward trend. Comparisons with Hutterite fertility show that while marital fertility rates are similar for young women, the rates for older Amish women are much lower than those for older Hutterite women. We find some limited evidence of fertility control among women of high parity and among non-farm wives, but most variation in individual fertility is due to physiological factors, some of which appear to be passed from one generation to the next. We find that the main form of population control among the Old Order Amish is apostasy, and that rates of apostasy have been rising. Finally, we examine the family backgrounds of the leavers.

Fertility patterns and trends among the Old Order Amish

Summary Using statistics from an Amish census, a survey of couples, and a family genealogy, we examine trends in Old Order Amish fertility during this century. We also examine factors which might explain variations in fertility. We find that Amish fertility has remained high and that there is no evidence of a downward trend. Comparisons with Hutterite fertility show that while marital fertility rates are similar for young women, the rates for older Amish women are much lower than those for older Hutterite women. We find some limited evidence of fertility control among women of high parity and among non-farm wives, but most variation in individual fertility is due to physiological factors, some of which appear to be passed from one generation to the next. We find that the main form of population control among the Old Order Amish is apostasy, and that rates of apostasy have been rising. Finally, we examine the family backgrounds of the leavers.