Marine Heatwaves Research Articles

The state of the ocean in the northeastern Atlantic and adjacent seas

Abstract. In this paper, the Copernicus Ocean State Report offers detailed scientific analysis of the ocean under climate change, ocean variability, and ocean extremes in the northeastern Atlantic and adjacent seas. Major results show that the northeastern Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas have experienced consistent warming, with sea surface temperatures increasing at a rate of 0.25 ± 0.03 °C per decade since 1982, doubling the global average trend. This warming is most pronounced in the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Baltic Sea. Sea levels have risen significantly over the past 30 years, particularly in the Baltic and Mediterranean seas. Ocean acidification has also increased, with pH decreasing at a rate of −0.017 ± 0.001 units per decade. Marine heatwaves have intensified and expanded, affecting over 60 % of the region in 2022 and 2023. Over the past 16 years, most extreme wind speeds exceeding 22 m s−1 prevailed in the central and subpolar North Atlantic and northern Mediterranean Sea. The region has also seen significant variability in ocean climate indicators and circulation patterns, including increased Atlantic Water transport to the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait and notable variations in the Mediterranean Sea's meridional overturning circulation. No major Baltic inflow occurred in winter 2022/23.

Ocean conditions influence the quality of recruiting benthic marine invertebrate larvae—Insights from fatty acids

AbstractMany marine benthic invertebrates have a pelagic life stage, during which larvae need to accumulate enough reserves to complete metamorphosis to a settled benthic juvenile. Currently, very little is known about how ocean conditions affect quality of the larvae. We studied this for three settlement seasons (2017–2019) by collecting returning Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) megalopae at the Oregon coast and analyzing them for fatty acid biomarkers. We found that the larvae are omnivorous and have versatile diets. The daily larval abundance was positively correlated with larval quality. Despite the relatively high day‐to‐day variation, we found pronounced seasonal and inter‐annual differences in the body condition (size and total fatty acid content) and biomarker composition of megalopae. Especially, the early season recruits of 2017 had lower content of lipids and polyunsaturated fatty acids known to be beneficial to crustaceans. This is likely related to lingering effects of the eastern Pacific marine heat wave (2014–2016) on pelagic communities. The larvae were rich in docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) with lower levels in benthic juveniles, indicating an ontogenetic diet shift and likely lower availability of DHA and EPA in the benthic environment. The pulsed megalopa recruitment may provide substantial carbon and lipid inputs to the nearshore ecosystem as a form of pelagic subsidy. Our results reveal that ocean conditions may have an effect on the quality of returning larvae, which likely influence their recruitment performance and early juvenile success, and thus potentially also the population size and commercial catch 4 yr later.

Summer primary production of Arctic kelp communities is more affected by duration than magnitude of simulated marine heatwaves.

Fjord systems in the Norwegian Arctic are experiencing an increasing frequency and magnitude of marine heatwaves. These episodic heat stress events can have varying degrees of acute impacts on primary production and nutrient uptake of mixed kelp communities, as well as modifying the biogeochemical cycling in nearshore systems where vast areas of kelp create structural habitat. To assess the impact of future marine heatwaves on kelp communities, we conducted a 23 day mesocosm experiment exposing mixed kelp communities to warming and heatwave scenarios projected for the year 2100. Three treatments were considered: a constant warming (+1.8°C from the control), a medium magnitude and long duration heatwave event (+2.8°C from the control for 13 days), and two short-term, more intense, heatwaves(5 day long scenarios with temperature peaks at +3.9°C from the control). The results show that both marine heatwave treatments reduced net community production, whereas the constant warm temperature treatment displayed no difference from the control. The long marine heatwave scenario resulted in reduced accumulated net community production, indicating that prolonged exposure had a greater severity than two high magnitude, short-term heatwave events. We estimated an 11°C temperature threshold at which negative effects to primary production appeared present. We highlight that marine heatwaves can induce sublethal effects on kelp communities by depressing net community production. These results are placed in the context of potential physiological resilience of kelp communities and implications of reduced net community production to future Arctic fjord environmental conditions.

Variability of marine heatwaves’ characteristics and assessment of their potential drivers in the Baltic Sea over the last 42 years

This study examined Baltic Sea Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) using 42 years of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) data. We found that MHWs in warmer months are more intense but shorter compared to MHWs in cooler months. Also, MHWs predominantly affect offshore areas in warmer months, whereas MHWs predominantly impacting coastal seas in cooler months, especially along the eastern coast. Our analysis of interannual variability revealed that, unlike in many other basins worldwide, Baltic MHWs tend to maintain a constant intensity, while their spatial extent has significantly increased over the last few decades. Shortwave radiation notably influences MHW intensity and spatial extent, with additional impacts from longwave radiation in cooler months and latent heat flux in warmer months. Northern Hemisphere teleconnections exhibit stronger correlations with MHWs in the Baltic Sea compared to global-scale climate oscillations, with the Eastern Atlantic pattern having a particularly significant effect on MHW variability in the region.

Marine heatwaves and commercial fishing in New Zealand

A marine heatwave (MHW) is an atypical and relatively short period of warmer Sea Surface Temperature (SST) which may be disruptive to marine life. Changes brought about by MHWs can reshape marine ecosystems in ways that have an economic impact on their users. MHWs are expected to become more frequent, longer, and more intense due to anthropogenic climate change. We leverage high-resolution SST data, and spatially and temporally detailed fish catch data, for an analysis of the impact of MHW events on fish catch in Aotearoa New Zealand's large marine Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). We use Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression to assess the spatially heterogenous impact of MHWs on fish catch across different areas within the EEZ. We find that moderate MHWs correlate with increased fish catches; but, as the intensity of MHWs increase, their impact becomes predominantly negative. Intense MHWs are associated with substantial decreases in fish catch, suggesting significant disruptions to fish populations and their habitats. This pattern underscores the vulnerability of marine ecosystems and consequently commercial fisheries to the increasing frequency and severity of MHWs caused by climate change. As MHWs become more frequent and intense, better informed management approaches will be required to ensure the sustainability and viability of fisheries.

Arctic Amplification of marine heatwaves under global warming

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) and total heat exposures (THEs), extreme warming events occurring across the global oceans, seriously threaten marine ecosystems and coastal communities as the climate warms. However, future changes in MHWs and THEs in the Arctic Ocean, where unique marine ecosystems are present, are still unclear. Here, based on the latest CMIP6 climate simulations, we find that both MHWs and THEs in the Arctic Ocean are anticipated to intensify in a warming climate, mainly due to Arctic sea ice decline and long-term warming trend, respectively. Particularly striking is the projected rise in MHW mean intensity during the 21st century in the Arctic Ocean, surpassing the global average by more than sevenfold under the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario. This phenomenon, coined the ‘Arctic MHW Amplification’, underscores an impending and disproportionately elevated threat to the Arctic marine life, necessitating targeted conservation and adaptive strategies.

Different Modulations of Arctic Oscillation on Wintertime Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Northeast Pacific

AbstractPersistent positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the mid‐latitude Northeast Pacific (NEP), also known as “warm blob” or “marine heatwave,” have substantial ecological and climate effects. This study delves into the spatiotemporal connection between Arctic Oscillation (AO) and SSTAs in the NEP. First, we conduct the lead‐lag correlation and maximum covariance analyses to disentangle the closest temporal relationship between October AO and wintertime SSTAs in the NEP. Then, we categorize the years in positive AO (pAO) phase into two groups: positive AO with warm anomaly (pAO&Blob) group and positive AO without warm anomaly (pAO&noBlob) group based on the October AO index and wintertime blob index. Results show that the positive phase of AO in October strongly influences the wintertime warm SSTAs in the NEP through local and remote pathways. The local pathway is contingent upon the longitudinal positioning of AO‐related high‐pressure anomaly (i.e., anomalous ridge) in the North Pacific. When easterly anomalies prevail at the southern flank of the anomalous ridge over the NEP, they foster warm SSTAs in the NEP. However, different locations of the high‐pressure anomalies may impede the NEP warming. Remote pathways indicate the teleconnections triggered by AO‐related precipitation increase in Greenland and decrease in East Asia, sustaining the high‐pressure anomaly and promoting the anomalous NEP warming. Hence, this study presents new evidence on polar and mid‐latitude climate connections, which may provide potential predictability for the warm SSTAs in the NEP.

Altimeter-derived poleward Lagrangian pathways in the California Current System: Part 1

We use altimeter-derived geostrophic velocities, with and without the addition of surface Ekman transports, to create trajectories for virtual parcels in the California Current System (CCS). The goal is to investigate the poleward transport of passive water parcels in the surface 50–100 m of the nominally equatorward system. Motivation for the study is provided by observations of anomalous biomass of copepods with warm water affinities along the Newport Hydrographic Line off central Oregon (44.7°N) during El Niño years, as well as during and following the 2014–2016 marine heat wave. By backward tracking virtual parcels from 44.7°N, we find that the most distant source of passive water parcels in the upper ocean during a one-year period of travel is from within the Southern California Bight (SCB), north of 30°N. To make that journey, parcels use the Inshore Countercurrent off southern and central California during summer–winter and the Davidson Current off northern California and Oregon during autumn–winter. The inclusion of small-scale eddy diffusion usually increases the number of parcels that reach more northern latitudes, while the inclusion of Ekman velocities more often reduces those numbers. Even so, parcels can travel from the SCB to central Oregon in either the Ekman layer or beneath it in the geostrophic flow. Using backward tracking, we find that parcels arrive at 44.7°N most often in winter–spring, least often in autumn. They arrive from within the large-cape region off northern California (41°–42°N) during all years and all months, from just south of the large-cape region (38°–39°N) during most years but seldom in autumn, from south of Monterey Bay along central California (36°N) and within the SCB (34.5°N) during a third (or less) of the years and only in winter-spring. The shortest average transit times are found in winter: for parcels reaching 44.7°N in February, the average transit time is 2 months for parcels coming from 41°–42°N, 4 months for parcels coming from 38°–39°N, and 5–6 months or more for parcels coming from south of 36°N. Transit times increase as the arrival time progresses from winter to autumn. The longest average transit times are for parcels reaching central Oregon in autumn (9–12 months in October for parcels coming from south of 39°N). This makes the journey a multi-generational task for the copepods. Interannual variability in the observed southern copepod species biomass off central Oregon correlates highly with years when more virtual parcels from the south reach central and northern Oregon, providing increased confidence in the results found with the altimeter-derived parcel trajectories.

Vertical distribution of mesopelagic fishes deepens during marine heatwave in the California Current

Abstract Marine heatwaves can impact the distribution and abundance of epipelagic organisms, but their effect on deep pelagic communities is unclear. Using fisheries acoustics data collected in the Central California current from 2013 to 2018, we found that during the warmest years of a large marine heatwave (2015–2016), the estimated center of mass depth of mesopelagic fishes deepened by up to 100 m compared to preheatwave conditions. Using a generalized additive model, we evaluated which biophysical factors may have driven these changes and found that light, dynamic height anomaly, and acoustic backscatter explained 81% of the variability in depth. We attribute the vertical shift by mesopelagic fishes into deeper waters to heatwave-driven compression of upwelling habitat that indirectly increased the amount of light reaching mesopelagic depths. Our results suggest that mesopelagic fishes are interconnected with, and thus sensitive to changes in near-surface oceanographic conditions, which could lead to cascading effects on vertical carbon export and the availability of mesopelagic fishes as prey for top predators under future climate conditions.

Intrinsic short Marine Heatwaves from the perspective of sea surface temperature and height

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have recently been recognized as extreme climate events considering their devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. Our study explored the spatial and temporal variability of short (duration <10 days) and long MHWs in nine sub-regions around the Australian coastal region using the original (5-day) and an updated longer duration (10-day) criteria for MHW identification based on gap-free Sea Surface Temperature (SST) analyses from 1981 to 2020. By quantitatively investigating the contribution of ocean warming to short MHWs, we could consider most of the short events as background signals of a dynamic ocean surface over the Australian region. The application of the updated definition highlights areas that are more sensitive to local internal forcings, especially over the main flow of the East Australian Current. Furthermore, the Great Barrier Reef exhibit a larger increasing trend of MHW areas after excluding the short events. By numerically and graphically evaluating the relationship between the sea level anomaly (SLA) and SST metrics over two coastal regions of Australia, it is found that longer MHWs exhibiting two variation trends of large SLA metrics are ENSO dominant in the northwest coastal region (NW), and less ENSO-dominant but geographically-impacted in the southeast coastal region (SETS). However, it is possible that most short events in these two regions are a result of local and intrinsic variability or ocean warming of the water columns rather than the remote modulation of climate modes. Moreover, SLA over the 90th percentile, which successfully observed a subsurface MHW event over the NW region in 2008, has the potential to help identify subsurface MHWs, although limited by application area. Further investigation into the applicability of these, or other similar, updates to the MHW definitions may be warranted, to draw a broadly applicable conclusion to benefit detection and prediction of strong sub-surface MHWs impacting commercial and environmental activities.

Time series decomposition of land surface temperature for long-term trend forecasting and impact on nesting sea turtle habitats in the Arabian Gulf

Abstract Improving Land Surface Temperature (LST) modeling is vital for mitigating climate change effects on various ecosystems and marine habitats such as on important sea turtle habitats. Over the past decade, extreme temperatures have likely significantly affected nesting sea turtle habitats in the Arabian Gulf, with predominantly female hatchlings creating an imbalance in the sex ratio. Such shifts have profound implications for these habitats' long-term survival and conservation management. This study leverages statistical machine learning models to measure ongoing temporal variations in LST. We break down the LST time series into trend, seasonal, and noise components using classical decomposition methods like X11, SEATS, and the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) approach. The long-term trends in LST data are driven by climate change rather than seasonal fluctuations. We employed Neural Network Auto Regression (NNAR), BaggedETS, Exponential Smoothing models, and STL method to project future LST values. We also explored advanced forecasting models like Dynamic Harmonic Regression, TBATS, and SARIMA for comparative performance analysis. Extended warm periods were identified for Abu Ali Island between 2017 and 2018 through several decomposition methods, likely linked to the 2015-2016 El Niño event. We also conducted a Marine Heat Wave (MHW) analysis from 2010-2020, establishing a pronounced impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño on the Arabian Gulf. In nesting beach environments with high LST, marine heatwaves could have a significant impact on sea turtle populations without human intervention such as artificially cooling the nest temperature. SARIMA model showed higher forecasting precision for in-situ weather data while NNAR model demonstrated superior performance with remotely sensed data.

Assisted sexual coral recruits show high thermal tolerance to the 2023 Caribbean mass bleaching event.

Assisted sexual coral propagation, resulting in greater genet diversity via genetic recombination, has been hypothesized to lead to more adaptable and, hence, resilient restored populations compared to more common clonal techniques. Coral restoration efforts have resulted in substantial populations of 'Assisted sexual Recruits' (i.e., juvenile corals derived from assisted sexual reproduction; AR) of multiple species outplanted to reefs or held in in situ nurseries across many locations in the Caribbean. These AR populations provided context to evaluate their relative resilience compared to co-occurring coral populations during the 2023 marine heat wave of unprecedented duration and intensity that affected the entire Caribbean. Populations of six species of AR, most ranging in age from 1-4 years, were surveyed across five regions during the mass bleaching season in 2023 (Aug-Dec), alongside co-occurring groups of corals to compare prevalence of bleaching and related mortality. Comparison groups included conspecific adult colonies as available, but also the extant co-occurring coral assemblages in which conspecifics were rare or lacking, as well as small, propagated coral fragments. Assisted sexual recruits had significantly lower prevalence of bleaching impacts (overall pooled ~ 10%) than conspecific coral populations typically comprised of larger colonies (~ 60-100% depending on species). In addition, small corals derived from fragmentation (rather than sexual propagation) in two regions showed bleaching susceptibility intermediate between AR and wild adults. Overall, AR exhibited high bleaching resistance under heat stress exposure up to and exceeding Degree Heating Weeks of 20°C-weeks. As coral reefs throughout the globe are subject to increasingly frequent and intense marine heatwaves, restoration activities that include sexual reproduction and seeding can make an important contribution to sustain coral populations.

Emission reductions during COVID-19 enhance marine heatwave over the North Pacific in spring 2020

Emission reductions during COVID-19 enhance marine heatwave over the North Pacific in spring 2020

Evaluation and projection of marine heatwaves in the South China Sea: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

Evaluation and projection of marine heatwaves in the South China Sea: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

Mediterranean octocoral populations exposed to marine heatwaves are less resilient to disturbances.

The effects of climate change are now more pervasive than ever. Marine ecosystems have been particularly impacted by climate change, with marine heatwaves (MHWs) being a strong driver of mass mortality events. Even in the most optimistic greenhouse gas emission scenarios, MHWs will continue to increase in frequency, intensity and duration. For this reason, understanding the resilience of marine species to the increase of MHWs is crucial to predicting their viability under future climatic conditions. In this study, we explored the consequences of MHWs on the resilience (the ability of a population to resist and recover after a disturbance) of a Mediterranean key octocoral species, Paramuricea clavata, to further disturbances to their population structure. To quantify P. clavata's capacity to resist and recover from future disturbances, we used demographic information collected from 1999 to 2022, from two different sites in the NW Mediterranean Sea to calculate the transient dynamics of their populations. Our results showed that the differences in the dynamics of populations exposed and those not exposed to MHWs were driven mostly by differences in mean survivorship and growth. We also showed that after MHWs P. clavata populations had lower resistance and slower rates of recovery than those not exposed to MHWs. Populations exposed to MHWs had lower resistance elasticity to most demographic processes compared to unexposed populations. In contrast, the only demographic process showing some differences when comparing the speed of recovery elasticity values between populations exposed and unexposed to MHWs was stasis. Finally, under scenarios of increasing frequency of MHWs, the extinction of P. clavata populations will accelerate and their capacity to resist and recover after further disturbances will be hampered. Overall, these findings confirm that future climatic conditions will make octocoral populations even more vulnerable to further disturbances. These results highlight the importance of limiting local impacts on marine ecosystems to dampen the consequences of climate change.

The intensity of a field simulated marine heat wave differentially modulates the transcriptome expression of Posidonia oceanica from warm and cold environments

Marine Heat Waves (MHWs) occurrence has been increasing in the Mediterranean Sea. The effects of field simulated MHWs of different intensity (medium and high temperature) on the transcriptome expression of the endemic seagrass Posidonia oceanica were evaluated considering different origins of the plant. The aim of the study was reached through a common garden transplant experiment in the North-west of Sardinia (Italy), where two P. oceanica meadows characterized by different thermal regimes (cold and warm) were chosen. MHWs were simulated in front of a power plant, that creates a natural laboratory by releasing warm water in the sea. Differential gene expression and GO enrichment analyses highlighted differences in the transcriptomic profiles of plants from cold and warm environments suggesting that the MHWs induced different levels of stress due to different tolerance to the heat event. Plants from both origins activated processes to achieve protein homeostasis, but only cold plants activated an antioxidant defense and altered sugar metabolism, both indicators of heat stress. Within plants of the same origin, a different response to MHW intensity was also detected: while warm plants showed the most complex response at high temperature rather than at medium temperature, cold plants seemed to better cope with the medium temperature intensity rather than with high temperature.

Pathology of tissue loss in three key gorgonian species in the Mediterranean Sea

The Mediterranean is known for its marine biodiversity, especially gorgonian forests. Unfortunately, these are experiencing rapid declines due to climate change, manifested by repeated marine heat waves resulting in mass mortality events since the early 1990 s. To better understand why gorgonians are declining, more systematic approaches to investigate the exact causes are needed, and pathology may aid in this goal.We described gross and microscopic pathology of tissue loss in three key gorgonian species in the Mediterranean region, Paramuricea clavata, Eunicella cavolini, and Leptogorgia sarmentosa, that were all experiencing various degrees of acute to subacute tissue loss characterized by exposed axial skeleton sometimes partly colonized by epibionts and thinning of adjacent tissues. The most significant variety of lesions was seen in P. clavata followed by L. sarmentosa and E. cavolini. For all species, dissociation of gastrodermal cells was the dominant microscopic lesion followed by necrosis of the gastrodermis. Ciliates invading gastrodermis and associated with necrosis of polyps were seen only in E. cavolini. Epidermal tissue loss was seen only in L. sarmentosa, while P. clavata was distinguished by a prominent inflammatory response and unidentified dark round structures within the tentacle epidermis and gastrodermis with no host response. Further work to understand the cause of death in gorgonians is needed, particularly to elucidate the role of ciliates and environmental co-factors or infectious agents not visible on light microscopy, as well as applications of additional tools such as cytology.

Ocean warming and Marine Heatwaves unequally impact juvenile introduced and native oysters with implications for their coexistence and future distribution

Climate change is causing ocean warming (OW) and increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events, including Marine Heat Waves (MHWs). Both OW and MHWs pose a significant threat to marine ecosystems and marine organisms, including oysters, oyster reefs and farmed oysters. We investigated the survival and growth of juveniles of two commercial species of oyster, the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata, and the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, to elevated seawater temperatures reflecting a moderate and an extreme MHW in context with recent MHWs and beyond. The survival and size of Pacific oysters to moderate MHWs (22–32 °C; 14 days) was greater than that for Sydney rock oysters (24–32 °C; 15 days). While survival and growth of both species was significantly impacted by extreme MHWs (29–38 °C; 5–6 days), Sydney rock oysters were found to survive greater temperatures compared to the Pacific oyster. Overall, this study found that Pacific oyster juveniles were more tolerant of a moderate MHW, while Sydney rock oyster juveniles were more resilient to extreme MHWs. These differences in thermal tolerance may have consequences for aquaculture and coexistence of both species in their intertidal and latitudinal distributions along the south-eastern Australian coastline.

Marine heatwave in the Oyashio region in 2022/23 and its impact on subsurface dissolved oxygen

AbstractThe Oyashio region east of northern Japan has experienced frequent marine heatwaves (MHWs) since 2010, and in the summer and fall of 2022, sea surface temperature hit a record high as of that year. This study examined the impact of the 2022/23 MHW on dissolved oxygen (DO) by analyzing observations from a vessel and biogeochemical Argo floats. It was found that warm saline water from the Kuroshio Current intruded at ~ 42°N in July. DO anomalies from the climatology above a depth of 200 m were negatively correlated with the temperature anomalies at the same depth, while the opposite was true for deeper depths. In the density coordinate, DO and temperature anomalies exhibited a strong negative correlation when the potential density (σθ) was less than ~ 27.0 kg m−3. Thus, it was demonstrated that subsurface DO anomalies could be statistically predicted from temperature and salinity fields using this relationship. Notably, DO anomalies could be divided into components related to isopycnal mixing and density-surface heaving. This decomposition revealed a dynamical process, whereby the intrusion of the Kuroshio water, which is lighter than the Oyashio water, pushed down the density surfaces, causing oxygenation. Meanwhile, isopycnal mixing tended to mitigate the increase of DO concentration since DO concentration was smaller in the south than in the north on an isopycnal surface of σθ &lt; 27.0 kg m−3. This study clarified that, during the 2022/23 MHW, deoxygenation occurred near the surface owing the warming, whereas the DO concentration increased in the subsurface layer.

An Increase in Autumn Marine Heatwaves Caused by the Indian Ocean Dipole in the Bay of Bengal

Abstract This study investigates the interannual variability of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) associated with the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) from 1982 to 2021. The results revealed a significant positive correlation at the 95% confidence level between the IOD and MHW days in the central bay at the peak of the IOD in autumn. During positive IOD (pIOD) events, the central bay experienced more MHW days in autumn, with an average increase of 7.4 days. The increased MHW days in the central bay could be primarily attributed to the enhanced net heat flux (TQ), which is 9.7 times the contribution of ocean dynamic processes (horizontal advection + entrainment). The reduced latent heat flux loss and enhanced shortwave radiation due to the anomalous atmospheric low-level high pressure associated with the pIOD account for 63% and 50%, respectively, of the anomalous enhanced TQ, while the longwave radiation and sensible heat flux make smaller contributions of −20% and 7%. In addition, thermocline deepening in the southwestern bay, caused by this anomalous high pressure and associated anticyclonic wind anomalies, favors the occurrence and persistence of MHWs by reducing the mixed-layer cooling rate. In addition to the influence of the IOD, El Niño–Southern Oscillation mainly affects MHWs from winter to the following summer, which confirms the result of a previous study.