Threat Maps Research Articles

Runway debris impact threat maps for transport aircraft

AbstractLarge transport aircraft are particularly susceptible to impact damage from runway debris thrown up by the landing gear. A methodology was developed to predict the trajectories of stones lofted by the nose wheel and subjected to aerodynamic forces due to the wake behind the nose landing gear and beneath the aircraft. In conjunction with finite element modelling of the stone/ground/tyre contact mechanics, an analytical model was used to perform a stochastic prediction of the trajectories of runway stones to generate impact threat maps which showed the relative likelihood of stones impinging upon various areas on the underside of a C-130 Hercules. The impact envelopes for the C-130 extended three to eighteen metres behind the nose wheel and two metres either side of the centre of the aircraft. The impact threat maps were especially sensitive to the values of the coefficients of lift and drag acting on the stone during its flight.

The effects of vegetation density and habitat disturbance on the spatial distribution of ixodid ticks (Acari: Ixodidae)

Larval, nymphal, and adult Amblyomma americanum (L.), and adult Dermacentor variabilis (Say) ticks were collected using timed dragging techniques, in an attempt to examine how different habitat variables affect models that describe the distribution of ticks in Virginia, USA. Tick count data were modeled using two approaches: (i) habitat and edge, and (ii) habitat, edge, vegetation density and levels of disturbance. Nymphs and adults tended to follow a forest edge distribution when analysed by habitat and edge. Using all variables, we detected a positive relationship with forest edges and negative associations with high-density vegetation. When larvae were modeled by habitat and edge, we failed to detect associations with the edges of habitats. When all variables were included in the larval analysis, disturbed meadow edges emerged as important in the first year, and the categories of disturbed and maturing habitat in the second year. Vegetation density and levels of disturbance were marginally important towards explaining the distribution of nymphs and adults; however, levels of disturbance were potentially more important to the distribution of larvae, than habitat types. Using the habitat and edge variables, and predicted mean encounter rates for all stages of A. americanum and adult D. variabilis, we successfully cross-validated our predictions of high, moderate and low tick densities in both years. The results for nymphs and adults were combined to develop a colour-coded threat assessment map. We estimated that the majority of ticks were located on approximately 20% of the landscape. The potential uses of geographical information system-based threat maps are discussed.

Spatial Prediction of Invasion Success Across Heterogeneous Landscapes using an Individual-Based Model

The limited resources available for managing invasive plant species in native ecosystems and the magnitude of the problem make it essential that we develop methods to prioritize sites for management efforts. We used the individual-based simulation model ECOTONE in conjunction with climate and soil texture data to identify grassland site types where the invasive perennial forb Acroptilon repens is likely to be successful, and to create a threat map indicating the most vulnerable regions of Colorado. Acroptilon repens has the potential to become most abundant in dry areas with fine-textured soils. This information can be used to direct management efforts towards the areas at greatest risk, allowing the most effective use of limited resources. The most common approach for identifying invasible regions has been to extrapolate from the locations of existing invasions to find similar sites. Two major drawbacks to this method are the lack of consideration of the role of the existing plant community in inhibiting or facilitating invasion, and the assumption that the invading species is at equilibrium with the environment. The combination of an individual-based simulation model and a geographic information system provides a flexible tool to investigate the community and regional dynamics of invasive plant species.

The Threat of Transformation: Quantifying the Vulnerability of Grasslands in South Africa

Abstract: The ability to predict which areas of conservation importance are most vulnerable to transformation and to rank the relative damage that transforming land uses could cause to biodiversity are important components of an effective and realistic conservation planning process. We used the South African grassland biome as a case study to illustrate the assessment of vulnerability to land‐use transformation through the construction of a “threat map.” We identified the dominant transforming land uses and created suitability models based on area appropriateness for each. Land uses were scored according to their expected relative impacts on biodiversity, with a framework that included compositional, structural, and functional components. This information, once combined, resulted in a map that highlighted the areas most vulnerable to transformation in terms of the likelihood of their transformation and the impact on their biodiversity. We propose that such an analysis of the threat of transformation, in combination with species‐representation approaches, will aid the integration of conservation planning theory and decision making. This approach can be applied at any scale and in any region with a robustness and accuracy dependent on data quality, resultant suitability models, and comprehension of how land uses affect an area's biodiversity.

Changing industrial production systems and regional development in the New Europe

The continuing expansion and deepening integration of the European Union is redefining the map of threats and opportunities for both companies and regions in Europe. In this paper I analyze the changing geography of the production system in three industries – automobiles, clothing and steel – as a product of the strategies and tactics of companies, states (at EU, national and regional levels) and trades unions, as they seek to shape geographies of production to favour their interests within this changing European political–economic space. It is argued that the end product of this process will be the creation of new and sharper forms of regional uneven development and qualitative differentiation between regions, as well as a renewed widening rather than further narrowing of regional differences in economic performance and well–being.