Spatial Prediction of Invasion Success Across Heterogeneous Landscapes using an Individual-Based Model

Abstract

The limited resources available for managing invasive plant species in native ecosystems and the magnitude of the problem make it essential that we develop methods to prioritize sites for management efforts. We used the individual-based simulation model ECOTONE in conjunction with climate and soil texture data to identify grassland site types where the invasive perennial forb Acroptilon repens is likely to be successful, and to create a threat map indicating the most vulnerable regions of Colorado. Acroptilon repens has the potential to become most abundant in dry areas with fine-textured soils. This information can be used to direct management efforts towards the areas at greatest risk, allowing the most effective use of limited resources. The most common approach for identifying invasible regions has been to extrapolate from the locations of existing invasions to find similar sites. Two major drawbacks to this method are the lack of consideration of the role of the existing plant community in inhibiting or facilitating invasion, and the assumption that the invading species is at equilibrium with the environment. The combination of an individual-based simulation model and a geographic information system provides a flexible tool to investigate the community and regional dynamics of invasive plant species.