Wildfire Risk Management Research Articles

Rethinking the maps: A case study of knowledge incorporation in Canadian wildfire risk management and planning

As the natural fire regimes of Canada's Boreal forests have been transformed by dynamic social, economic, ecological and political drivers, wildfires have become a locus of increasingly complex land management decisions. But while, in Canada and elsewhere, social researchers have examined communities at risk of experiencing wildfire, the agencies and practitioners responsible for wildfire management have thus far been underrepresented in empirical inquiry. This article presents a case study of wildfire management in northern Alberta, examining how different forms of knowledge and experiences were incorporated into the creation of a new plan to support decision-making. Findings from interviews and a workshop confirm that ‘science’ in such applied contexts is not a pure entity. Instead, the objects represented internally and externally as ‘scientific’ have necessarily been shaped by the values and priorities of the individuals and institutions that have constructed them. Further, this case study revealed social factors that support the maintenance of institutional status quos, such as the commitment to total wildfire suppression policy, despite broad agreement amongst participants about superior alternatives. These findings support the need for further research on wildfire management agencies, and suggest that progress in wildfire management may be limited by mismatched expectations of ‘good’ policy between stakeholder groups and by practitioners' conceptions of their own institutional identity.

Relationships among leaf flammability attributes and identifying low-leaf-flammability species at the wildland–urban interface

Leaf flammability is a multidimensional plant functional trait with emerging importance for wildfire risk management. Understanding relationships among leaf flammability attributes not only provides information about the properties of leaves as fuels in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), it can also offer an effective way to identify low-leaf-flammability species. We examined relationships between leaf ignitibility, sustainability and combustibility among 60 plant species of the WUI of eastern Australia. We found that leaf ignitibility and sustainability worked in opposition to each other as dimensions of flammability. Species with leaves that were slow to ignite were those with leaves that sustained burning for the longest, whereas species with leaves that were fast to ignite had leaves that burned for the shortest periods of time. Low leaf combustibility was related to short leaf burning sustainability but not to ignitibility. We created an overall leaf flammability index (OLFI) to rank species on emergent properties of ignitibility, sustainability and combustibility attributes in combination. We found that low-leaf-flammability species with low OLFI values had small leaf area, high leaf mass per area and high leaf water content. Our findings have implications for species selection for green firebreaks in the WUI.

Regional fire scenarios in Spain: Linking landscape dynamics and fire regime for wildfire risk management

Fire scenarios are multiscale land-type planning units for a fire regime with different applications at national, regional, and local scales. The main aim of this research is to implement a methodology integrating landscape dynamics and wildfire risk from a context-specific approach, to identify current fire scenarios at a regional scale in the Spanish Central Mountain Range. These homogeneous areas are linked to different stages of a territorial dynamics model called wildfire generations and related to land use diversity and land management trends. A place-based methodology has been developed to characterize fire scenarios using Geographic Information Systems and statistical analysis, resulting in analytical and diagnostic mapping that can be used as a decision support tool for spatial planning and wildfire risk management. Its implementation has led to the delimitation of 91 discrete geographic units in the Central Mountain Range, classified according to wildfire generations and land use-land cover criteria. In conclusion, the fire scenarios concept is a potential approach to manage uncertainty by moving from the operational level of fire suppression to the strategic level of integrated fire management.

Delineating boreal plains bog margin ecotones across hydrogeological settings for wildfire risk management

Canada’s Boreal Plains peatland vegetation species assemblages are characterized by their functional ecosystem roles and feedbacks, which are important for carbon and water storage in a sub-humid climate. The vegetation communities at the peatland-upland interface, or the peatland margin ecotone, have not been extensively delineated or characterized as a distinct ecotone. Because these ecotones constitute a smouldering “hotspot” during wildfire, with carbon loss from these margins accounting for 50–90% of total peatland carbon loss, their delineation is critical. Post-fire, areas of severe peat smouldering have previously been shown to undergo shifts in vegetation community composition, resulting in a loss of key peatland ecohydrological functions. The aim of this study was to delineate Boreal Plains peatland margin ecotones and assess their prevalence across the landscape. Using split moving window analysis on vegetation transect data from a chronosequence of study sites, the margin ecotones were delineated at sites having different times since fire. No significant differences were identified in margin width over time or margin peat depths across hydrogeological settings. However, with peat depths of up to 2.46 m in small peatlands characteristic of moraine and glaciofluvial deposits, vulnerable margin peat has been demonstrated to represent a significant carbon store. Fire managers employing peatland fuel treatments for wildfire abatement and community protection should consider these confined peatlands more carefully to mitigate catastrophic carbon losses. Further, we suggest that a greater understanding is needed of the roles of peatland margin ecotones in sustaining peatland autogenic feedback mechanisms that promote paludification and recovery following wildfire.

Archetypes of community wildfire exposure from national forests of the western US

Risk management typologies and their resulting archetypes can structure the many social and biophysical drivers of community wildfire risk into a set number of strategies to build community resilience. Existing typologies omit key factors that determine the scale and mechanism by which exposure from large wildfires occur. These factors are particularly important for land managing agencies like the US Forest Service, which must weigh community wildfire exposure against other management priorities. We analyze community wildfire exposure from national forests by associating conditions that affect exposure in the areas where wildfires ignite to conditions where exposure likely occurs. Linking source and exposure areas defines the scale at which cross-boundary exposure from large wildfires occurs and the scale at which mitigation actions need to be planned. We find that the vast majority of wildfire exposure from national forests is concentrated among a fraction of communities that are geographically clustered in discrete pockets. Among these communities, exposure varies primarily based on development patterns and vegetation gradients and secondarily based on social and ecological management constraints. We describe five community exposure archetypes along with their associated risk mitigation strategies. Only some archetypes have conditions that support hazardous fuels programs. Others have conditions where managing community exposure through vegetation management is unlikely to suffice. These archetypes reflect the diversity of development patterns, vegetation types, associated fuels, and management constraints that exist in the western US and provide a framework to guide public investments that improve management of wildfire risk within threatened communities and on the public lands that transmit fires to them.

Deliberation for wildfire risk management: Addressing conflicting views in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Wildfires are increasingly affecting forest landscapes around the world. In the Bolivian Chiquitania, southern Amazonia, large wildfires during recent droughts have intensified public debate around more systemic solutions to address the possible root causes. While the integration of different forms of fire knowledge is gaining acceptance as an approach to dealing with increasing wildfire risk, little attention has been given to this integration in the Amazonia. In fact, mismatches between policy, science and local realities have curtailed the success of fire risk strategies in the region. To address this challenge, we conducted interviews and focus group discussions with a wide range of actors in the Chiquitania to examine different forms of knowledge and views of fire, and the extent to which these were integrated in prevalent wildfire risk strategies. We found that the risk strategies were in tension between two conflicting understandings of fire. A conceptual framework was developed to capture the configuration of knowledge underpinning this tension. Adopting a more integrated and inclusive approach to manage wildfire risk will require overcoming first this tension through a more open deliberation process within a reflexive governance framework. We proposed three “deliberation arenas” to facilitate this process, which could ultimately support more systemic, inter‐cultural fire management in the Chiquitania and other landscapes with conflicting views in the Amazonia.

THE EMERGENCE OF SOCIAL MEDIA FOR NATURAL DISASTERS MANAGEMENT: A BIG DATA PERSPECTIVE

Abstract. Social media is rapidly emerging as a potential resource of information capable to support natural disasters management. Despite the growing research interest focused on using social media during natural disasters, many challenges may arise on how to handle the ‘big data’ problem: huge amounts of geo-social data are available, in different formats and varying quality that must be processed quickly. This article presents a state-of-the-art approach towards the enhancement of decision support tools for natural disaster management with information from the Twitter social network. The novelty of the approach lies in the integration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) modeling outputs with real-time information from Twitter. A first prototype has been implemented that integrates geo-referenced Twitter messages into a Web GIS for wildfire risk management and real-time earthquake monitoring. Following a highly scalable architecture that relies on big data components, the proposed methodology can be applied in different geographical areas, different types of social media and a variety of natural disasters. The article aims at highlighting the role of social big data, towards a more sophisticated transfer of knowledge among civil protection agencies, emergency response crews and affected population.

Values of the public at risk of wildfire and its management

Wildfire management agencies increasingly seek to understand what the public values and expects to be protected from wildfire and its management. Recent conceptual development demonstrates the utility of considering values at three levels of abstraction: localised valued entities such as people, places and objects; valued attributes of communities and landscapes; and core values, or ideals that guide in life. We used a large-scale survey (n = 1105) in Victoria, Australia, to test and extend this framework. The results confirm the usefulness of the conceptual framework and demonstrate that values that members of the public consider at risk of wildfire are much more diverse than those typically considered in wildfire risk management. Relationships between values at different levels of abstraction are meaningful and reveal the multiple ways that objects, places and people become valued. The research suggests ways to understand and practically incorporate values of the public in wildfire management.

Politics & Policy: Note from the Editor

<i>Politics &amp; Policy</i>: Note from the Editor

Wildfire Susceptibility Assessment in Southern China: A Comparison of Multiple Methods

Wildfire is a primary forest disturbance. A better understanding of wildfire susceptibility and its dominant influencing factors is crucial for regional wildfire risk management. This study performed a wildfire susceptibility assessment using multiple methods, including logistic regression, probit regression, an artificial neural network, and a random forest (RF) algorithm. Yunnan Province, China was used as a case study area. We investigated the sample ratio of ignition and nonignition data to avoid misleading results due to the overwhelming number of nonignition samples in the models. To compare model performance and the importance of variables among the models, the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic plot was used as an indicator. The results show that a cost-sensitive RF had the highest accuracy (88.47%) for all samples, and 94.23% accuracy for ignition prediction. The identified main factors that influence Yunnan wildfire occurrence were forest coverage ratio, month, season, surface roughness, 10 days minimum of the 6 h maximum humidity, and 10 days maxima of the 6 h average and maximum temperatures. These seven variables made the greatest contributions to regional wildfire susceptibility. Susceptibility maps developed from the models provide information regarding the spatial variation of ignition susceptibility, which can be used in regional wildfire risk management.

Community diversity and hazard events: understanding the evolution of local approaches to wildfire

Existing research indicates that distinct human populations may prepare for, experience, and recover from wildfires in different ways. However, research that helps explain differential adaptation actions surrounding wildfire events is rare. The research presented here applied an existing approach for characterizing the social diversity of communities at risk from wildfire to: (1) identify any unique populations (i.e., “communities”) affected by the same large wildfire event; and (2) help explain the evolution of their approaches to wildfire risk management. Researchers conducted interviews with 87 residents and professionals who experienced the 2014 Carlton Complex Wildfire in Washington State, USA, including 53 residents who experienced property damage or loss. Results revealed three different “communities” whose local social context influenced differential preparation for wildfire and helped explain decisions to evacuate or stay and defend their property during the fire event. Likewise, respondents explained how combinations of social context characteristics unique to each community helped explain post-fire reactions to the Carlton Complex Wildfire and the actions each is taking to address future events. We compare our findings about community-specific influences on wildfire-related action to existing insights from wildfire social science literature to illuminate how systematic characterization of community context and recognition of dynamic social change can help inform wildfire management. We also present a conceptual model explaining how existing social dynamics, history and interactions surrounding a given wildfire event contribute to the evolution of local approaches to wildfire risk. The manuscript concludes with practical recommendations for integrating the above lessons into wildfire management and policy.

Resource Communication. Temporal optimization of fuel treatment design in blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus) plantations

Aim of study: This study was conducted to support fire and forest management planning in eucalypt plantations based on economic, ecological and fire prevention criteria, with a focus on strategic prioritisation of fuel treatments over time. The central objective was to strategically locate fuel treatments to minimise losses from wildfire while meeting budget constraints and demands for wood supply for the pulp industry and conserving carbon.Area of study: The study area was located in Serra do Socorro (Torres Vedras, Portugal, covering ~1449 ha) of predominantly Eucalyptus globulus Labill forests managedcultivated for pulpwood by The Navigator Company.Material and methods: At each of four temporal stages (2015-2018-2021-2024) we simulated: (1) surface and canopy fuels, timber volume (m3 ha-1) and carbon storage (Mg ha-1); (2) fire behaviour characteristics, i.e. rate of spread (m min-1), and flame length (m), with FlamMap fire modelling software; (3) optimal treatment locations as determined by the Landscape Treatment Designer (LTD).Main results: The higher pressure of fire behaviour in the earlier stages of the study period triggered most of the spatial fuel treatments within eucalypt plantations in a juvenile stage. At later stages fuel treatments also included shrublands areas. The results were consistent with observations and simulation results that show high fire hazard in juvenile eucalypt stands.Research highlights: Forest management planning in commercial eucalypt plantations can potentially accomplish multiple objectives such as augmenting profits and sustaining ecological assets while reducing wildfire risk at landscape scale. However, limitations of simulation models including FlamMap and LTD are important to recognise in studies of long term wildfire management strategies.Keywords: Eucalypt plantations; Fire hazard; FlamMap; fuel treatment optimisation; Landscape Treatment Designer; wildfire risk management.

Influences on stakeholder support for a wildfire early warning system in a UK protected area

ABSTRACTProjected increases in wildfire risk and impacts to human populations in the UK have prompted the installation of expanded management approaches such as early warning systems (EWSs). Newer iterations of wildfire EWSs help mitigate risk through rapid detection, often using high-resolution monitoring technology and instantaneous information collection. While existing research suggests that local social context plays an important role in the effective application of EWSs, little is known about factors that contribute to stakeholder support for these technocratic systems and their successful implementation in protected areas. This study examines support for an EWS in Northumberland National Park, UK, using focus groups with a broad range of local stakeholders. We found that diverse stakeholder understandings of wildfire, different perceptions of wildfire risk, and varied identification of values at risk collectively help explain mixed support for the EWS. Mixed support also was an outgrowth of distrust between several stakeholder groups, indicating a need for improved communication regarding wildfire risk management across stakeholder groups. Results suggest that EWSs adopted in multi-use protected areas shared by a range of stakeholder are most likely to be successful when stakeholders have shared understandings of the hazard and opportunities for collective planning to address its risks. We conclude that EWSs are a viable approach to wildfire risk reduction, but there needs to be a critical consideration of pre-existing stakeholder dynamics for effective EWS implementation.

A wildfire risk management concept based on a social-ecological approach in the European Union: Fire Smart Territory

The current wildfire policies in European Union countries have not solved the wildfire problem and probably will not be effective in the future, as all the initiatives focus on suppression and minimize the use of fire embedded in the Traditional Ecologic Knowledge of European communities. The traditional fire use as a tool for land management has been handled and almost criminalized by an urban-centric perspective and anti-fire bias. These policies are poorly adapted to, and cannot cope with, the complex nature of the wildfire phenomenon since they neglect its social roots. This paper presents a forward-looking and innovative model of wildfire management focused not at the landscape, or community, or forest level but at the territory scale. Fire Smart Territory (FST) is the proposed theoretical, the context specific, and place-based operational framework. The grounding assumptions of FST are that fire is a dual and ambiguous process, that it is not merely a biophysical process with social overtones but a social process, and it is a complex issue which can be understood only in the coupled human and natural systems where it occurs. FST advocates that the current wildfire challenges cannot be solved by a check list of theoretically adequate procedures, but through locally understanding the wildfire problem and strategically preparing each territory to be less wildfire prone, and its inhabitants to be less vulnerable, and more resilient, in the scope of economic valorization, sustainable development, and safety of the territory resources.

A new model of landscape-scale fire connectivity applied to resource and fire management in the Sonoran Desert, USA.

Understanding where and when on the landscape fire is likely to burn (fire likelihood) and the predicted responses of valued resources (fire effects) will lead to more effective management of wildfire risk in multiple ecosystem types. Fire is a contagious and highly unpredictable process, and an analysis of fire connectivity that incorporates stochasticity may help predict fire likelihood across large extents. We developed a model of fire connectivity based on electrical circuit theory, which is a probabilistic approach to modeling ecological flows. We first parameterized our model to reflect the synergistic influences of fuels, landscape properties, and winds on fire spread in the lower Sonoran Desert of southwestern Arizona, and then defined this landscape as an interconnected network through which to model flow (i.e., fire spread). We interpreted the mapped outputs as fire likelihood and used historical burned area data to evaluate our results. Expected fire effects were characterized based on the degree to which future fire exposure might negatively impact native plant community recovery, taking into account the impact of repeated fire and major vegetation associations. We explored fire effects within habitat for the endangered Sonoran pronghorn antelope and designated wilderness. Model results indicated that fire likelihood was higher in lower elevations, and in areas with lower slopes and topographic roughness. Fire likelihood and effects were predicted to be high in 21% of the currently occupied range of the Sonoran pronghorn and 15% of the additional habitat considered suitable. Across 16 designated wilderness areas, highest predicted fire likelihood and effects fell within low elevation wilderness areas that overlapped large fire perimeters that occurred in 2005. As ongoing changes in climate and land cover are poised to alter the fire regime across extensive and ecologically important areas in the lower Sonoran Desert, an analysis of fire likelihood and effects can contribute new and important information to fire and fuels management. Our novel approach to modeling fire connectivity addresses challenges in quantifying and communicating wildfire risk and is applicable to other ecosystems and management issues globally.

Calibration of FARSITE simulator in northern Iranian forests

Abstract. Wildfire simulators based on empirical or physical models need to be locally calibrated and validated when used under conditions that differ from those where the simulators were originally developed. This study aims to calibrate the FARSITE fire spread model considering a set of recent wildfires that occurred in northern Iranian forests. Site-specific fuel models in the study areas were selected by sampling the main natural vegetation type complexes and assigning standard fuel models. Overall, simulated fires presented reliable outputs that accurately replicated the observed fire perimeters and behavior. Standard fuel models of Scott and Burgan (2005) afforded better accuracy in the simulated fire perimeters than the standard fuel models of Anderson (1982). The best match between observed and modeled burned areas was observed on herbaceous fuel models. Fire modeling showed a high potential for estimating spatial variability in fire spread and behavior in the study areas. This work represents a first step in the application of fire spread modeling in northern Iran for wildfire risk monitoring and management.

The role of social science in the governance and management of wildland fire

Global social-economic and environmental changes are increasing the challenges of wildfire risk management. Addressing these challenges requires perspectives beyond knowledge of the bio-physical dynamics of fire. This Special Section provides some such perspectives, including safety, children's understanding of the risk, indigenous knowledge of fire, and ‘shared responsibility’. Each paper highlights important challenges and ideas for fire management.

Il progetto SISTEMATI – The SISTEMATI project

The SISTEMATI project is developing a distributed information and communication system aimed at distributing and sharing information among people in charge of preparedness and response activities in the field of Spatial Planning and Civil Protection. To this end, the project provides authorities and volunteers with a Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) supporting different tools and facilities targeted to: retrieve natural hazard risk maps on the basis of geo-information included in metadata files; it makes use of a Spatial Decision Support System to suggest and control the flow of actions to put in practice during an emergency; and manages Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) provided by citizens to point out anomalous conditions of the territory. Although, the SDI has been originally conceived and designed to support the management of distinct natural and man-made risks, in the prototypal implementation of the proposal, the management of wild fire risk in a study area approximately covering 3.900 km2 in the central-eastern part of the Sardinia Island (Nuoro province) is the primary issue.

The social costs of homeowner decisions in fire-prone communities: Information, insurance, and amenities

In this article, we consider wildfire risk management decisions using a dynamic stochastic model of homeowner interaction in a setting where spatial externalities arise. Our central objective is to apply observations from the social science literature about homeowner preferences to this economic externality problem and determine how assumptions about insurance, information and starting fuel loads affect outcomes and the effectiveness of policy. Three new features of our approach are, first, to assess fuel treatment behavior under potential misinformation scenarios, second, to allow for heterogeneous starting fuel loads across ownerships, and, finally, to evaluate the effectiveness of insurance and direct regulation at improving outcomes. Among other results, we find that risk-adjusted insurance may not create incentives for fuel treatment when government suppression exists, and in games with heterogeneous starting fuel loads, the social costs from misinformation can persist over a greater range of fire probability and damage function parameter values. These results suggest that, even as information about wildfire improves, the social costs inherent in private decisions will be more persistent than previously thought on landscapes where fuel stock differs across ownerships.

Accelerating wildfire susceptibility mapping through GPGPU

In the field of wildfire risk management the so-called burn probability maps (BPMs) are increasingly used with the aim of estimating the probability of each point of a landscape to be burned under certain environmental conditions. Such BPMs are usually computed through the explicit simulation of thousands of fires using fast and accurate models. However, even adopting the most optimized algorithms, the building of simulation-based BPMs for large areas results in a highly intensive computational process that makes mandatory the use of high performance computing. In this paper, General-Purpose Computation with Graphics Processing Units (GPGPU) is applied, in conjunction with a wildfire simulation model based on the Cellular Automata approach, to the process of BPM building. Using three different GPGPU devices, the paper illustrates several implementation strategies to speedup the overall mapping process and discusses some numerical results obtained on a real landscape.