Water Resources Management System Research Articles

An interval two-stage fuzzy fractional programming model for planning water resources management in the coastal region – A case study of Shenzhen, China

In this study, an interval two-stage fuzzy fractional programming (TFFP) method is developed to facilitate collaborative governance of economy and water resources. Methods of interval programming, fuzzy programming, two-stage programming, and fractional programming are integrated within a general system optimization framework. The main contribution of TFFP is simultaneously addressing various uncertainties and tackling trade-offs between environmental and economic objectives in the optimized schemes for water resources allocation. A case study of a highly urbanized coastal city (i.e., Shenzhen) in China is provided as an example for demonstrating the proposed approach. According to the results, industrial sectors should receive 34.8% of total water supply, while agricultural sectors should receive 1.5%. For the spatial allocation of water resources, Bao An, Long Gang, and Fu Tian districts should be allocated 21.6%, 20.5%, and 14.8% water to promote the economic development. The discharge analysis indicates that chemical oxygen demand (CODcr) and total phosphorus (TP) would be key pollutants. Moreover, the optimized seawater desalination volume would be negligibly influenced by price, while the upper bounds of desalination would be increased with the raising acceptable credibility levels in the period of 2031–2035. Analysis of desalination prices also reveals that the decision-makers should increase the scale of desalination in the period of 2021–2025. In addition, the effectiveness and applicability of TFFP would be evaluated under economic maximization scenarios. The result showed that the economic maximization scenario could obtain higher economic benefits, but it would be accompanied by a larger number of pollutant discharges. It is expected that this study will provide solid bases for planning water resources management systems in coastal regions.

ORGANIZATIONAL SUPPORT OF STATE MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES ACCORDING TO THE BASIN PRINCIPLE

Water resources are an integral part of nature management, which in terms of market relations is considered a commodity. Uneven territorial distribution of water resources and significant anthropogenic pressure lead to acute water shortages. At present, Ukraine's water management has a significant number of problems, including: deepening the trend of irrational water use; unsatisfactory water quality in natural water bodies; significant increase in material damage from the negative impact due to floods, flooding of groundwater, waterlogging, secondary salinization of land, water erosion, reduced investment in water management. The realities of water use, especially in the field of water resources management, have led to the need to improve existing scientific approaches that will allow more efficient allocation of resources and will be based on the principles of sustainable development. For a long time there was a notion of unlimited water resources and, accordingly, of free access to them. However, with the development of the country's productive forces and especially water-intensive enterprises, pollution of water sources, disputes between water users over the use of water resources, and, finally, water scarcity in some large river basins, society's costs of increasing water resources and bringing them to quality standards have risen sharply. It has become clear that water is a limited and rather expensive resource for society. The main essence, features and main advantages of the basin principle of water resources management are considered in the work; the functions, types and features of the water resources management system based on the basin principle were studied and researched, the structure was analyzed, the main problems of implementation were identified and measures for the effective operation of the water resources management system were proposed. It is noted that the development of the basin system of water resources management in Ukraine should be carried out with maximum use and significant expansion of the functions provided by the water sector of the State Water Management. This approach makes it possible to predict the consequences of human activities, for early prevention of environmental and man-made disasters.

Response of surface water quality characteristics to socio-economic factors in Eastern-Central China.

Following the implementation of the strictest water resource management system in China, it has become increasingly important to understand and improve the surface water quality and the rate at which water function zones reach the water quality standard. Based on the monthly monitoring data from 450 monitoring sites at the provincial borders of 27 provinces in China in 2019, the overall surface water quality at provincial boundaries in China was evaluated. The Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment-water quality index (CCME-WQI) showed that the provincial boundary water quality exceeded the fair level, and F1 was the most influential factor. Then, 27 factors that directly or indirectly affect the surface water quality were identified, and the indirect influencing factors were integrated into the ecological environmental quality index and human activities quantitative index. Finally, the 27 factors were integrated into six factors, and the relationship between these indicators and CCME-WQI as well as the concentration of influencing elements with respect to regulatory standard limits were analyzed. The proportion of building land was the most significant factor affecting the quality of the aquatic environment in provincial boundaries. In addition, the economic development level, proportion of farmland, and degree of social development were identified as significant influencing factors. The six factors have different degrees of impact on the concentrations of major elements with respect to standard limits. This study basically explores water resource management and offers significant reference and guidelines for the improvement of the quality of surface water at provincial boundaries in China.

Big Data Analysis of Water Saving Standard Based on Bibliometrics

At present, water-saving standard is an important technical means to implement national water-saving actions and the strictest water resources management system. In order to analyze the development process and research fields of water-saving standards in China, this paper makes quantitative statistics and qualitative analysis on seven aspects of water-saving standards, such as annual publication, drafting unit, research fields, and progress. The results show that the annual release of water-saving standards generally showed a trend of first rising and then declining, and the release reached its peak in 2017. The contribution of China National Institute of Standardization to the development of water-saving standards is dominant. From the point of view of water department, the water-saving standards in the industrial field are comprehensive. Our finding are helpful to better understand the development process of water-saving standards and provide reference for further improving the water-saving standard system and building a water-saving society.

Discussion on Zero-dimension Model and Designed Hydrological Conditions in Calculation of Water Pollution Capacity

In order to implement the strictest water resource management system and ensure the sustainable utilization of water resources, it is necessary to carry out the work of limiting pollution in water function area. The calculation of water pollution capacity is the basis of pollution limitation in water function area. Code of practice for computation on allowable permitted assimilative capacity of water bodies (GB/T25173-2010) is the main reference basis for the calculation of water pollution capacity. There are some limitations in the practical application. In this paper, the zero-dimensional model is modified based on the current code of pollutant carrying capacity. And the determination of designed hydrological conditions was discussed. This would give reference for the calculation of water pollution capacity.

Evaluation of efficiency and resilience of agricultural water resources system in the Yellow River Basin, China

Resilience and efficiency are the core concepts of sustainable management of agricultural water resources system. This study constructed an evaluation system of the efficiency and resilience of agricultural water resources system (EAWRS, RAWRS) in the Yellow River Basin by comprehensively applying the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), entropy method (EVM), SBM-DEA model, and the development coordination model. The results showed that: (1) From 2005–2019, the EAWRS and RAWRS showed a fluctuating upward trend. The EAWRS increased significantly, especially the Baihe, Heihe, Luohe and Wudinghe river basins grew at a faster rate. However, the overall efficiency levels were still not high, and all the 72 prefecture-level administrative units were inefficient areas. The RAWRS was at a relatively low level, in which the Huangshui, Taohe and Qingshuihe river basins had rapid growth in resilience. (2) From the perspective of spatial differentiation characteristics, the EAWRS in Sichuan, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Henan, and Shandong was relatively high, while that in Gansu, Shanxi and Ningxia was relatively low. The prefecture-level administrative units of the upstream river source area, Hetao Irrigation District, Fenwei Plain and Huanghuaihai Plain had a relatively high EAWRS. The RAWRS in the lower reaches was significantly better than that in the upper and middle reaches. (3) The development degree of the agricultural water resources system has gone through a process of rapid rise (2005–2013) - fluctuating growth (2014–2017) - rise (2018–2019), showing an "upstream-midstream-downstream" stepwise increasing pattern. The coordination degree of the agricultural water resources system showed a downward trend, and the decrease showed an "upstream-downstream-midstream" increasing pattern. (4) The three clusters divided by the average value of the development degree and coordination degree of the agricultural water resources system showed the changes from concentration to dispersion, in contrast, the coordination degree was gradually decreased.

Network flow and flood routing model for water resources optimization

Real-time management of hydraulic systems composed of multi-reservoir involves conflicting objectives. Its representation requires complex variables to consider all the systems dynamics. Interfacing simulation model with optimization algorithm permits to integrate flow routing into reservoir operation decisions and consists in solving separately hydraulic and operational constraints, but it requires that the water resource management model is based on an evolutionary algorithm. Considering channel routing in optimization algorithm can be done using conceptual models such as the Muskingum model. However, the structure of algorithms based on a network flow approach, inhibits the integration of the Muskingum model in the approach formulation. In this work, a flood routing model, corresponding to a singular form of the Muskingum model, constructed as a network flow is proposed and integrated into the water management optimization. A genetic algorithm is involved for the calibration of the model. The proposed flood routing model was applied on the standard Wilson test and on a 40 km reach of the Arrats river (southwest of France). The results were compared with the results of the Muskingum model. Finally, operational results for a water resource management system including this model are illustrated on a rainfall event.

Characterizing Meteorological Droughts in Nepal: A Comparative Analysis of Standardized Precipitation Index and Rainfall Anomaly Index

Drought is an environmental disaster related to the extremes (on a drier side) in hydrometeorology. The precipitation amount modulates drought in Nepalese river basins. It is vital for efficient water resources management to quantify and understand drought. This paper aims to characterize the droughts in Nepal based on standard precipitation index (SPI) and rainfall anomaly index (RAI) using daily precipitation data and assess their impacts on annual crop yields. We used 41 years (1975–2015) of daily precipitation data to compute monthly means and then the drought indices, namely, SPI and RAI, at 123 stations across Nepal. Results showed that the northwest and eastern regions experienced drought compared to other regions, although the severity and duration were shorter. For stations 101 and 308, we found extreme drought events after 2005 for SPI-1, SPI-3, and SPI-6. However, for SPI-6, extreme drought was also observed in 1989 and 1994 at both stations. The year 1992 was one of the severest drought years for the western and northwest regions, where the severity crossed more than −2.0 for all SPI months. Similar to SPI, RAI also revealed a similar degree of drought in the country. RAI showed that the eastern region depicted a higher degree of severity of drought compared to other areas beyond 2004. The lesser severity is also seen in the far west part beyond 2005. The results showed that SPI and RAI could equally be used to analyze drought severity. More frequent drought incidents have been observed after 2010 at all the considered precipitation stations. With the increase in the drought severity, the crop yield (such as paddy, maize, barley, millet, and wheat) has been directly impacted. These results might be significant for planning water resource and irrigation water management systems.

Impact of climate-induced extreme events and demand–supply gap on water resources in Bangladesh

Abstract Agriculture, domestic users, and industry rely on water resources systems for fulfilling water demand, while water resources systems face both climate-induced extreme events and management and governance problems. These constraints lead to a mismatch between demand and supply of water for those sectors. This study applies central tendency and variability to analyze data and a mixed methods approach to interpret the result. From 1999 to 2019, the growth rates of population, gross domestic product, and urban population are ­1.354, 6.084, and 3.70%, respectively, contributing to increased water demand. However, the average groundwater depletion increased from 2.455 km3 (1989–1990) to 4.9016 km3, while the average flood-affected areas enhanced by 8,644 km2 in 2014–2018 compared to 1987–1991. Furthermore, salt-affected areas incremented by 222,810 ha in 2009 contrasted to 1973, whereas the mean wind speed of cyclones increased by 30.02 km in 2015–2020 compared to 1988–1995. The mean sea-level rise increased by 16.8 and 169.2 cm in 1995–2000 compared to 1979–1983 in Cox's Bazar and the Char Changa station, respectively. The Mann–Kendall test was applied to detect the trend. This study urges policymakers, water experts, and academics to promote rainwater harvesting that is sustainable to govern rainwater and mitigate water and economic poverty.

Function zoning based on spatial and temporal changes in quantity and quality of ecosystem services under enhanced management of water resources in arid basins

With global warming, the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources is increasingly prominent in arid areas. Enhancing water resource management is an important way to alleviate the shortage of ecological water supply and improve ecosystem services in arid river basins. However, previous studies have rarely conducted comprehensive function zoning of ecosystem services using two aspects: category (quantity) and strength change (quality), based on the changes in ecosystem services. In this regard, two scientific problems need to be solved:(1) quantifying the temporal and spatial changes of ecosystem services and (2) conducting function zoning of ecosystem services in terms of quantity and quality. To answer these two questions, we took the upper and middle reaches of the Tarim River Basin in China as the study area. According to the eco-environmental characteristics of arid basins, this study measured four key indices: carbon storage (CAS), evapotranspiration (ET), temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) and groundwater depth (GWD). We used the related model to quantitatively analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of these four indicators and the spatial aggregation characteristics of increases and decreases. We used the Reclassify tool of ArcGIS 10.5 to classify areas with more than two important zones as high-quantity ecosystem services zones. We used factor analysis, combined with Quantile, to divide ecosystem service quality into high-quality and low-quality zones. Considering the quantity and quality of ecosystem services, we divided ecosystem services into important, general, sensitive and fragile ecosystem services zones. Based on comprehensive zoning results during 2000–2018, an ecosystem services restoration zoning was determined. We used correlation analysis to analyze the basic drivers of changes in these four indicators. The results showed that during 2000–2018, CAS and ET in the Tarim River Basin increased by 0.2% and 15.3%, respectively, TVDI decreased by 22.5% and GWD rose by 1.7%. In 2018, the hot spots of CAS, ET, TVDI and GWD accounted for a small proportion of the whole study area, accounting for 3.8%, 5.9%, 9.0% and 1.4%, respectively. Compared with 2000, the high-quantity zone of ecosystem services increased by 10.7% and the high-quality zone of ecosystem services increased by 2.0% in 2018. This clearly showed that water diversion and riverway loss were the main factor driving changes in ecosystem services. In terms of maintaining groundwater depth and increasing vegetation coverage, specific counter measures and suggestions for increasing the number of ecosystem services (“increment”) and improving the quality of ecosystem services (“quality improvement”) were proposed. This study can provide a scientific reference for achieving optimal management of water resource systems for similar river basins in arid regions.

What Governance Failures Reveal about Water Resources Management in a Municipality of Brazil

Humans have historically chosen to develop their cities close to rivers due to the need for water and food security. In Brazil, water security represents a growing challenge, despite advances in the National Water Resources Management System. While municipalities are responsible for integrating the various public policies that impact urban rivers, such as the environment, basic sanitation, and urban planning, only states and the federal government, along with watershed committees, have a formal role in the National Water Resources Management System. The goal of this paper is to assess the Brazilian water governance system from the perspective of municipalities. The OECD water governance framework is applied to a medium-sized Brazilian municipality (c. 200,000 inhabitants), Itabuna, Bahia state, through perception-based and objective data. Studies dealing with water governance do not address this reality, despite representing more than 90% Brazilian municipalities and approximately half of the country’s population. Several water governance failures were identified, such as connections between administrative and political failures, which highlight the tragic consequences of hydrological issues in this region. Developing integrated water resources’ management, as fixed in national and state laws, depends on the effective participation of the municipality. This study discusses the importance of water governance at the municipal scale.

Optimal design of two-dimensional water trading based on risk aversion for sustainable development of Daguhe watershed, China

Water related problems, including water scarcity and pollution, have become increasingly urgent challenges especially in arid and semiarid regions. Two-dimensional water trading (2DWT) mechanism has been designed to unify the quantity and quality of water for relieving the water crisis. This study aims to develop a risk aversion optimization-two dimensional water trading model (RAO-2DWTM) for planning the regional-scale water resources management system (RWMS). This is the first attempt on planning RWMS through risk aversion optimization within the two-dimensional water trading framework. RAO-2DWTM cannot only support in-depth analysis regarding the effect of decision maker's preferences on system risk in different trading scenarios, but also reflect the interaction between water right trading and effluent trading, as well as disclose the optimal scheme of water resource management under uncertainties. Twenty four scenarios associated with different trading scenarios and robust levels are analyzed. The optimization scheme under the optimal risk control level is determined based on TOPSIS. Results revealed that 2DWT would bring high benefit with reduced risk cost, water deficit and emissions, implying the effectiveness of 2DWT mechanism. The results also disclosed that risk aversion behavior can mitigate water scarcity and pollution, as well as reduce risk cost, but may lead to some losses of system benefit. Consequently, decision makers should make trade-offs between system benefit and risk in identifying desired trading schemes.

Short-Term Daily Univariate Streamflow Forecasting Using Deep Learning Models

Hydrological forecasting is one of the key research areas in hydrology. Innovative forecasting tools will reform water resources management systems, flood early warning mechanisms, and agricultural and hydropower management schemes. Hence, in this study, we compared Stacked Long Short-Term Memory (S-LSTM), Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) with the classical Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) network for one-step daily streamflow forecasting. The analysis used daily time series data collected from Borkena (in Awash river basin) and Gummera (in Abay river basin) streamflow stations. All data sets passed through rigorous quality control processes, and null values were filled using linear interpolation. A partial autocorrelation was also applied to select the appropriate time lag for input series generation. Then, the data is split into training and testing datasets using a ratio of 80 : 20, respectively. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and coefficient of determination (R2) were used to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. Finally, the findings are summarized in model variability, lag time variability, and time series characteristic themes. As a result, time series characteristics (climatic variability) had a more significant impact on streamflow forecasting performance than input lagged time steps and deep learning model architecture variations. Thus, Borkena’s river catchment forecasting result is more accurate than Gummera’s catchment forecasting result, with RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R2 values ranging between (0.81 to 1.53, 0.29 to 0.96, 0.16 to 1.72, 0.96 to 0.99) and (17.43 to 17.99, 7.76 to 10.54, 0.16 to 1.03, 0.89 to 0.90) for both catchments, respectively. Although the performance is dependent on lag time variations, MLP and GRU outperform S-LSTM and Bi-LSTM on a nearly equal basis.

Water-energy-ecosystem nexus modeling using multi-objective, non-linear programming in a regulated river: Exploring tradeoffs among environmental flows, cascaded small hydropower, and inter-basin water diversion projects

Small hydropower (SHP) possesses significant economic, technical, and environmental advantages, and accounts for a large proportion of hydropower development in China. However, the concentrated, cascaded, and diversion-type development of SHP has resulted in long-distance dewatering of river sections, and inter-basin water transfers have led to severe exploitation of water resources and damage to river ecosystems. In this paper, the Datong River Basin, a secondary sub-basin of the Yellow River Basin in China, was selected as the illustrative case, which includes 22 hydropower projects (HPPs) and three inter-basin water diversion projects (WDPs). A nexus system model was established that used weighted multi-objective programming to consider three main objectives: the water resources utilization (local water withdrawal and inter-basin water transfer), energy production (by cascaded HPPs), and riverine environmental conservation. The Tennant method was used to estimate the environmental flows (e-flows) at the cross-sections immediately downstream of the dam/sluice gate and immediately downstream of the hydropower plant of diversion-type HPPs. The decreased percentage of regulated flow in comparison with runoff and the guaranteed rate of e-flow at the control cross-section were introduced to assess the degree of environmental impact to the river. Using a historical series of runoff data during 1956–2016 as the model input (i.e., implicit stochastic method), the Multi-start solver of nonlinear programming of LINGO software was used to conduct optimizations and analyses for multiple scenarios (with/without e-flow, with consideration of various levels of e-flow, and with/without water resources utilization). The sectoral linkages relating to the water-energy-ecosystem (WEE) nexus were quantitatively identified. The possible influences of different boundary conditions (i.e., initial/final reservoir storage, inter-basin water diversion capacity, and climate change) on the WEE nexus were further explored. The present study aims to provide an exemplar for the optimal operation and scientific management of a complicated water resources system in a regulated river with cascaded SHP and inter-basin WDPs.

Optimal Allocation Model for Water Resources Coupled with Ecological Value Factors—A Case Study of Dalian, China

The surface water ecosystem has important ecological value and plays an important supporting and guarantee role in the sustainable development of human society. In this study, an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) model was developed for supporting water resource allocation for the four main water sectors (industry, municipal, agriculture, and ecological environment). Several scenarios corresponding to different flow patterns, which reflect different probabilities of water resource availability and environmental carrying capacity, were examined. On the basis of traditional water resource allocation, this model adds consideration of ecological value factors, which is conducive to the synergistic efficiency of socio-economic and ecological water consumption. Results revealed that the water resource carrying capacity, ecological value factors, and water environmental capacity are the main factors affecting the optimal allocation of water resources. Furthermore, the optimal allocation scheme for water resources coupled with ecological value factors were determined to realize the coordinated development of social economic benefits and ecological benefits. The current study findings are of great significance for establishing a rational water resource management system for water resource exploitation and utilization. This model can be used to guide various departments in Dalian to formulate an optimal water resources allocation scheme by considering ecological value factors, and provide a basis for realizing the coordinated development of Dalian’s socio-economic development goals, water resource utilization, and environmental quality improvement.

Assessing the Effects of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Groundwater Recharge in a Sudano-Sahelian Zone: Case of Koda Catchment, Mali, West Africa

Groundwater is the main source of water in the studied area; therefore, it is significantly requested in all the activities of the inhabitants. These natural resources are affected by some drivers especially Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) and Climate Change. A Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) dynamics study is crucial for any global environmental change evaluation. For instance, for a given place, its change could affect considerably water cycle components. Therefore, the knowledge of the effects of LULC on groundwater recharge is then the key in water resources management system, in particular for the decision makers of the Koda Catchment where the scarcity of the water availability for agriculture is real. The spatiotemporal variation of the different units of LULC present in the catchment has been examined in this study. The Envi 4.5 Software coupled with ArcGIS using the Supervised Classification method, was applied to subset Landsat images from 1990 to 2016. Five (5) major LULC categories, cultivated land, bare land, herbaceous savannah, shrubby savannah and degraded savannah, were identified in the catchment. In a parallel direction, the groundwater recharge has been estimated through the conceptual Gardenia model for the same period 1990-2016. The results showed that the portion of cultivated land and bare land increased (14.9% and 23.5% respectively) while, the portion of savannah decreased: herbaceous savannah by 24.4%, degraded savannah by 10.32% and Shrubby Savannah by 3.6%. Savannah areas in Koda catchment is converted to agricultural land and urban area due to human activities. The decline of 8.4% in groundwater recharge might become so far obvious in the future if the current rate of deforestation continues in the Koda catchment. There is a need to closely monitor the changes in LULC for sustainable development. The results of this study could help to well understand the recharge pattern across Koda catchment under a changing LULC.

Melhorias na proposta do sistema de codificação de bacias hidrográfica de Pfafstetter

ABSTRACT The coding basin system proposed by Pfafstetter (1989) is an important reference point and adopted by the principal water resources management system in the world. This adoption is due to the method’s simplicity and the topological relationship between the river stretches built-into the codes. Otherwise, the Pfafstetter basin coding system can only be applied in a hydrographic vector represented by an anti-arborescence binary graph. This type of representation causes loss of hydrographic information due to the simplification of regions where there are anabranching, braided or delta areas that implies multiple confluences, cycles or disruptions of the network. This paper proposes improvements to the Pfafstetter basin coding system, maintaining it simple, while keeping the topological relationship between the stretches and including the possibility to represent the hydrography with multiple confluences, cycles, delta mouths, sinks, water masses and disruptions to drainage.

Bottleneck and development path of water resources protection and utilization in Henan Province in the new era

Objective：to promote the sustainable and efficient utilization of water resources in Henan Province, accelerate the optimization of the water resources management system, innovate the government administrative management mode, and provide new strategic countermeasures and path choices for the industrial upgrading and transformation in water resources related fields and the high-quality development of regional economy in Henan Province. Methods: by combing the current situation and existing problems of water resources utilization in Henan Province, this study focuses on analyzing the strategic opportunities faced by the field of water resources in Henan Province and expounds on the innovation and application of cutting-edge key technologies for water resources protection and utilization in Henan Province. Results: while the protection and utilization of water resources in Henan Province have achieved great results, it still faces great challenges: low water-saving results, imperfect advanced technology system, unstable water pollution control results, and imperfect water resource management mechanism. Conclusion: in the future, we must coordinate the relationship between water resources development and protection, establish the idea of harmonious development, give full play to the regional advantages of Henan Province, strengthen the research and development of cutting-edge key technologies, innovate the government management mechanism, and realize the efficient and sustainable utilization of water resources.

Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall over Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia

Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. This study assessed the historical (1983–2005) and future (2026–2100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. The performance of simulated rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin of the CMIP5 models were statistically evaluated using observation datasets at eleven stations. The results showed that the selected CMIP5 models can reasonably simulate the monthly rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin at the majority of the stations. Modified Mann–Kendall trend test were applied to estimate the trends of annual rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin in the historical and future periods. We found that rainfall experienced no clear trends, while Tmax, and Tmin showed consistently significant increasing trends under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. However, the warming is expected to be greater under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 by the end of the 21st century, resulting in an increasing trend of Tmax and Tmin at all stations. The greatest warming occurred in the central part of the basin, with statistically significant increases largely seen by the end of the 21st century, which is expected to exacerbate the evapotranspiration demand of the area that could negatively affect the freshwater availability within the basin. This study increases our understanding of historic trends and projected future change effects on rainfall- and evapotranspiration-related climate variables, which can be used to inform adaptive water resource management strategies.

Multiagent System and Rainfall-Runoff Model in Hydrological Problems: A Systematic Literature Review

Typically, hydrological problems require approaches capable of describing and simulating part of the hydrological system, or the environmental consequences of natural or anthropic actions. Tools such as Multiagent System (MAS) and Rainfall-Runoff Model (RRM) have been used to help researchers to develop and better understand water systems. Thus, this study presents a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) on the joint use of MAS and RRM tools, in the context of hydrological problems. SLR was performed based on a protocol defined from the research question. Initially, 79 papers were found among six bibliographic databases. This total was reduced over four stages of selection, according to exclusion criteria. In the end, three papers were considered satisfactory within the scope of the research, where they were summarized, analyzed, and compared. While the MAS and RRM tools can interact with their results in a coupled model, SLR showed that there are still major challenges to be explored concerning the dynamics between them, as the steps of scales and validation. However, the coupling of MAS and RRM can provide an interesting alternative tool to analyse decision-making about water resources management systems.