Volcanic Crisis Management Research Articles

An overview of the eruption of La Soufrière Volcano, St Vincent 2020–21

Abstract This paper provides an overview of the eruption of La Soufrière Volcano on the island of St Vincent which occurred between 27 December 2020 and 22 April 2022. It sets the stage for the 17 papers included in this Special Publication that showcase the initial scientific findings arising from analysis of the crisis. Here we present a chronology of the eruption and discuss the key findings from these papers while underscoring the areas for which further research is needed. The detailed account of the eruption offers several lessons for volcanic crisis management and provides insights into the most effective communication process through this type of crisis. It highlights the need for and benefits of planning and preparedness activities prior to an eruption as well as of long-term engagement with disaster management officials and at-risk communities. The value of partnerships both within the island and with external collaborators was shown to be critical as was the use of a multiparametric dataset to assess the course of the eruption. We contend that the papers contained in this publication provide key insights into the mechanisms by which volcanic eruptions can impact populations at risk. The suite of analyses and data have generated a canonical dataset that can provide the framework for new advances in understanding the causes and consequences of varying eruptions worldwide.

Volcanic crisis management supported by near real-time lava flow hazard assessment at Piton de la Fournaise, La Réunion

Since 1979, Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion) has erupted on average two times per year, with 95 % of these eruptions occurring within an uninhabited caldera. However, lava flows have occasionally impacted populated regions on the island, as in 1977 and 1986. Since 2014, an integrated satellite data–driven multinational response to effusive crises has been developed to rapidly assess lava inundation area and flow runout distance. In 2018, this protocol was implemented as a standalone software to provide a lava flow hazard map showing the probability of flow coverage and runouts as a function of discharge rate. Since 2019, the produced short-term hazard map is shared with local civil protection in the first few hours following the start of an eruption to aid in mitigation actions. Multiple exchanges between scientists, the observatory, and civil protection has improved the delivered hazard map, ensuring a common understanding, a product which is of use and usable, and helping to build effective mitigation strategies at Piton de la Fournaise. In this work we illustrate this effective near real-time protocol with case studies and document how the produced short-term hazard map has been tailored to meet the needs of civil protection.

Rapid response petrology for the opening eruptive phase of the 2021 Cumbre Vieja eruption, La Palma, Canary Islands

How and why magmatic systems reactivate and evolve is a critical question for monitoring and hazard mitigation efforts during initial response and ongoing volcanic crisis management. Here we report the first integrated petrological results and interpretation provided to monitoring authorities during the ongoing eruption of Cumbre Vieja, La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain. The first eruptive products comprised simultaneous Strombolian fountain-fed lava flows and tephra fall from near-continuous eruption plumes. From combined field, petrographic and geochemical analyses conducted in the 10 days following sample collection, we infer low percentage mantle melts with a variably equilibrated multimineralic crystal-cargo and compositional fractionation by winnowing during eruptive processes. Hence ‘rapid response’ petrology can untangle complex magmatic and volcanic processes for this eruption, which combined with further study and methodological improvement can increasingly assist in active decision making.

The 2015 eruption of Gamalama volcano (Ternate Island–Indonesia): precursor, crisis management, and community response

Gamalama is an active stratovolcano on Ternate, a small volcanic island in Maluku Utara, Indonesia. Since 1510, a total of 77 eruptions have been recorded, with various impacts on the population and environment on the island and its surroundings. In July 2015, Gamalama erupted after < 24 h of precursor signs. The seismic activity continued to increase until September 2015, as marked by three sudden eruptions that were not preceded by significant volcanic and tremor earthquakes. This research was intended to understand the chronology and impact of the 2015 Gamalama eruption, which is categorically unusual, and to learn how the government conducted relevant crisis management and in what manners the community affected by ejected materials reacted to it. The former was achieved by analyzing the data provided by the Gamalama volcano observatory. As for the latter, interviews with key stakeholders in volcanic disaster management and a questionnaire-based survey involving 85 respondents in the most affected areas were conducted. The results showed that despite the relatively small Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI = 2), the 2015 eruption was rather unexpected to many parties because it began with a short-term precursor sign (less than a day). The impact included tephra deposits as thick as 2–6 mm was in the Loto, Togafo, and Takome Villages. A total of 1791 people was recorded evacuating to several locations, such as Afe Taduma village, the SMKN 2 camp, the SKB camp, and the Naval Base camp. After a rapid impact assessment and coordination with the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM), the government issued a status of emergency and evacuation orders. In cases when eruptions are initiated with a short-term precursor, the large population size and geographic condition of Ternate Island create a particular challenge in the resultant evacuation. Nevertheless, with prior mitigation measures and evacuation drills in hazard zones, evacuation can be carried out effectively. Even when a large-scale Gamalama eruption requires an evacuation to neighboring islands, a properly implemented mitigation such as the establishment of sister islands can substantially facilitate volcanic crisis management activities on small islands.

Strategies for the development of volcanic hazard maps in monogenetic volcanic fields: the example of La Palma (Canary Islands)

Traditionally volcanic-hazard assessments have been applied to stratovolcanoes, where volcanic hazard maps represent important tools for volcanic crisis management and land-use planning. In recent years, several improvements have been made for monogenetic volcanic fields focused on, among other things, the development of spatial models to deal with one of the main problems in these areas, namely the unknown vent location. However, volcanic hazard maps of monogenetic volcanic fields present some significant differences with respect to those developed for stratovolcanoes, including the fact that they commonly represent multiple eruptive processes spread over the possible vent opening area. Likewise, the scientific communication of the volcanic-hazard assessment and how this information is comprehended are critical issues in the development of mitigation strategies for monogenetic volcanic fields.In this research, we focused on developing volcanic hazard maps using simple numerical hazard models in combination with a random approach for vent location to cover the whole vent opening area. We added some spatial methods to better manage potentially affected areas. The maps were designed for use in a digital environment (Geographic Information System) by Civil Protection professionals in high-risk monogenetic volcanic fields on small oceanic islands. The methodology presented does not use susceptibility base maps for hazard assessment to avoid possible underestimation of low probability areas by Civil Protection. The methodology represents an attempt to respond to the most important questions of where, when and how a new eruption might take place in a monogenetic volcanic field. The example presented here was developed for La Palma (Canary Islands).

Development of a Data Sharing System for Japan Volcanological Data Network

In Japan, a number of universities, research institutes, and administrative organizations continue to conduct observations on volcanoes according to their respective roles. They also promote the distribution and sharing of observation data and have collaborated with each other. Japan Volcanological Data Network (JVDN) is a framework that strengthens this cooperation, promotes volcano research, and contributes to volcanic disaster mitigation. In this paper, we report the overview, progress, tasks, and future prospects of the system being developed for JVDN that was initiated in 2016. The observational data collected from each organization is stored in a database and shared using visualization tools to promote collaborative research, (e.g., multi-disciplinary research for eruption prediction) and cooperation between organizations. Furthermore, this database will contribute to volcanic disaster mitigation measures through collaboration between the volcano research community and administrative organizations responsible for volcanic crisis management. Adaptation to the standards of the international WOVOdat database will also promote cooperation with research institutes worldwide.

Risk management issues in tourist regions with explosive volcanism: The Teide's 2004 unrest, Canary Islands

Volcanic crisis management in small and densely populated islands is extremely complex. Preparedness 15 is critical to give an adequate response to volcanic unrest and reduce economic losses. However, such preparedness takes time, and involves a variety of groups of people and institutions, sometimes not only because of the requirements of knowledge with respect to self-protection but also because people must be made to change their understanding of the environment. Experience is vital if preparedness is to be improved meaning that the society at risk and the institutions involved in the management 20 sometimes have to face eruptive process. A key factor here is the magnitude and behavior of eruptive events, how these are understood by people and decision-makers, plus the ability to use them as real- life drills. Lower-medium magnitude eruptive events may help to better understand how these natural processes work but may give the impression that such events are easy to manage. Large eruptive events without preparedness can be catastrophic, and may be arduous to recover from as a result. The 25 idiosyncrasy of the society at risk plays a significant role here, thus improvements vary worldwide. In the present study, we address the initial situation in Tenerife (The Canary Islands) in 2004 and the local people's resulting response, while addressing other situations such as the pressure exerted by 1 international tour-operators or the tourist industry in general, the conflicting views of the scientists and how these affected the people, together with an overview of the management of the seismic catalog in 30 the Canary Islands as a key factor in volcanic crisis management. Current achievements will be compared to the situation given in 2004.

Accessibilité territoriale et gestion de crise volcanique aux Antilles françaises (Guadeloupe &amp; Martinique) : contribution à la planification des évacuations

Cet article privilegie une approche spatiale et comparative de l’accessibilite du territoire en situation de crise volcanique aux Antilles francaises. Apres une evaluation des ressources et populations exposees, il propose une cartographie du risque d’isolement territorial en cas de lahars. Ce risque indirect est modelise au moyen de calculs sur graphe et d’indicateurs prenant en compte la vulnerabilite specifique des ouvrages de franchissement des cours d’eau et la connaissance des lahars historiques. Une autre application des graphes porte sur l’evacuation des populations, seule parade efficace face a une eruption. Elle debouche sur un decoupage optimise des zones a evacuer permettant d’apprecier le gain de charge potentielle sur le reseau routier. Ces differents resultats sont integres dans deux prototypes de cartes d’evacuation destines aux autorites locales. La situation de la Guadeloupe est davantage preoccupante que celle de la Martinique, compte tenu de son niveau d’exposition, des pertes d’accessibilite potentielles en cas de lahars, et du regain d’activite de son volcan, la Soufriere.

VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT AT SANTORINI VOLCANO: A REVIEW AND A SYNTHESIS IN THE LIGHT OF THE 2011-2012 SANTORINI UNREST

In 2011 and the first half of 2012 Santorini experienced its first seismo-volcanic unrest since 1950, as detected by the permanently installed monitoring networks and a large number of campaign measurements. The unrest was characterized by small magnitude but intense seismic activity, significant uplift and inflation deformation rates, and changes of water temperature as well as of fluid and soil gases. While the unrest ended in the spring of 2012, the world-wide interest led to the performance of several studies, in an attempt to assess the possible scenarios for the unrest evolution. Within this framework, we summarize the most important findings regarding the volcanic hazard assessment of the broader Santorini volcanic complex, as well as the constraints that need to be taken into account for a possible future volcanic crisis management.

Advanced procedures for volcanic and seismic monitoring

European Union FP7 APhoRISM project proposes the development and testing of two new methods to combine Earth Observation satellite data from different sensors and ground data. The aim is to demonstrate that this two types of data, appropriately managed and integrated, can provide new improved Copernicus Emergency products useful for seismic and volcanic crisis management. The first method, APE – A Priori information for Earthquake damage mapping, concerns the generation of maps to address the detection and estimate of damage caused by a seismic event. The novelty of APE relies on the exploitation of a priori information derived by InSAR time series to measure surface movements, shake maps obtained from seismological data, and buildings vulnerability information. The second method, MACE – Multi-platform volcanic Ash Cloud Estimation, concerns the exploitation of GEO sensor platform, LEO satellite sensors and ground measures to improve the ash detection and retrieval, and to characterize the volcanic ash clouds. INGV covers the role of project coordinator and ALMA Sistemi is participating in the exploitation and dissemination of the project results.

Chlorine as a geobarometer for alkaline magmas: Evidence from a systematic study of the eruptions of Mount Somma-Vesuvius.

Defining the magma storage conditions of a volcanic system is a major goal in modern volcanology due to its direct implications for the style of a possible eruption, and thus on the associated risk of any crisis and the necessary management and mitigation strategies. Below 200 MPa and at equivalent depths, the strongly non-ideal behaviour of the H-C-O-S-Cl-F system in the silicate melt causes unmixing of the fluid phase to form an H2O-rich vapour and a hydrosaline phase in equilibrium with the silicate melt, both responsible for buffering the chlorine (Cl) concentration. Following this equilibrium, the Cl concentration in melts may be used as a geobarometer for alkaline magmas. Systematic application of this method to the main explosive eruptions of Mount Somma-Vesuvius highlights two main magma ponding zones, at ~180–200 and ~100 MPa. At these pressures, the maximum pre-eruptive H2O contents for the different magma compositions can be estimated; the results obtained, largely in agreement with the current literature, therefore confirm the validity of the method. The Cl geobarometer may help scientists to define the variation of the magmatic reservoir location through time and thus provide strong constraints on pre-eruptive conditions, which are of utmost importance for volcanic crisis management.

Pour un renforcement des capacités de gestion des crises volcaniques au Cap-Vert

Dans les pays dits en developpement, l’occurrence de nombreuses eruptions volcaniques recentes souleve la question de la gestion des risques et des catastrophes associes aux phenomenes naturels « extremes ». En s’appuyant sur le cas de l’eruption du volcan de Fogo du 23 novembre 2014, a l’origine d’importantes destructions, de l’evacuation et du relogement des populations locales de Cha das Caldeiras, cet article vise a une analyse des rapports de pouvoir au niveau local, articules a un niveau plus global, et des reponses apportees par les populations et les institutions face aux menaces volcaniques. La remise en cause d’une approche alea-centree et top-down en faveur d’une dynamique de resilience sur le long terme mobilisant les savoirs et ressources de tous les acteurs doit permettre de renforcer les capacites de gestion des risques et des crises volcaniques au Cap-Vert. Centree sur la vulnerabilite socio-economique des populations face au risque volcanique, l’etude porte egalement sur les vulnerabilites institutionnelles, « champ qui reste a ce jour largement inexplore, alors qu’il est fondamental a la comprehension des situations de crise » (Morin 2012, Leone 2007).

Preliminary assessment for the use of VORIS as a tool for rapid lava flow simulation at Goma Volcano Observatory, Democratic Republic of the Congo

Abstract. Assessment and management of volcanic risk are important scientific, economic, and political issues, especially in densely populated areas threatened by volcanoes. The Virunga volcanic province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 1 million inhabitants, has to cope permanently with the threat posed by the active Nyamulagira and Nyiragongo volcanoes. During the past century, Nyamulagira erupted at intervals of 1–4 years – mostly in the form of lava flows – at least 30 times. Its summit and flank eruptions lasted for periods of a few days up to more than 2 years, and produced lava flows sometimes reaching distances of over 20 km from the volcano. Though most of the lava flows did not reach urban areas, only impacting the forests of the endangered Virunga National Park, some of them related to distal flank eruptions affected villages and roads. In order to identify a useful tool for lava flow hazard assessment at Goma Volcano Observatory (GVO), we tested VORIS 2.0.1 (Felpeto et al., 2007), a freely available software (http://www.gvb-csic.es) based on a probabilistic model that considers topography as the main parameter controlling the lava flow propagation. We tested different parameters and digital elevation models (DEM) – SRTM1, SRTM3, and ASTER GDEM – to evaluate the sensitivity of the models to changes in input parameters of VORIS 2.0.1. Simulations were tested against the known lava flows and topography from the 2010 Nyamulagira eruption. The results obtained show that VORIS 2.0.1 is a quick, easy-to-use tool for simulating lava-flow eruptions and replicates to a high degree of accuracy the eruptions tested when input parameters are appropriately chosen. In practice, these results will be used by GVO to calibrate VORIS for lava flow path forecasting during new eruptions, hence contributing to a better volcanic crisis management.

Virtual tools for volcanic crisis management, and evacuation decision support: applications to El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, México)

Decision making regarding massive evacuation of a population threatened by a probable volcanic eruption is a major problem in crisis management. Such a decision is general on the number of people to be evacuated, available resources and infrastructure, quantity and quality of the escape routes and shelters, and the economic, social and political costs involved in the operation, coupled with the updated information provided by scientists about the forecast of future activity and probable eruption scenarios. Knowing time-lapse between the evacuation decision-making time and the time in which the evacuation is completed is another critical issue that must be carefully considered in densely populated areas. In such areas, it is really important to estimate in advance this time-lapse, as the forecast must be released with enough time to complete all the evacuation process before the destructive manifestations of the eruption begin. In this context, evacuation planning is a crucial component of emergency management. It is common for Emergency Plans to include pre-established strategies. However, an evacuation procedure should be flexible, depending on the above-mentioned timing, and on the decisions, evacuation schemes, environmental characteristics and other factors. In this work, several hazard models such as a lava flow model based on a Monte Carlo algorithm, a pyroclastic density current based on energy cone model, a semi-empirical inversion model to estimate the thickness of ash deposits, and all available information about the El Chion volcano have been used to obtain the area that should be evacuated in case of an eruption. Then, multiple evacuation strategies at El Chichon volcano have been designed, considering not only the characteristics of the eruption forecast, but also environmental factors (e.g., weather conditions) and social factors (e.g., tourism and farming seasons). The variable scale evacuation model has been used to estimate the evacuation time. In the paper, those virtual tools are briefly described as well as the information obtained from the drill of 2009. In addition to the optimization of evacuation under variable conditions and situations, one of the main objectives of this work is to provide a reliable estimation of the mitigation action time, for an Emergency Plan.

Influence of the institutional and socio-economic context for responding to disasters: case study of the 1994 and 2006 eruptions of the Merapi Volcano, Indonesia

Abstract This article explores the institutional responses to the volcanic crises and related problems encountered during the 1994 and 2006 eruptions of the Merapi Volcano, Indonesia. It also illustrates traditional responses to the volcanic crisis led by the local community and provides recommendations to encourage a comprehensive institutional volcanic crisis management including community-based response. This study aims to understand and to explain the gap between institutional responses and the community's perception during pre- to post-crisis situations. Interviews, questionnaires and focus group discussions revealed that top-down institutional responses to the volcanic crisis are not fully appropriate in regions with a high cultural perception. Working with the community is an ideal solution to minimize the gap between the government, scientists, non-governmental organizations and the community itself. A community-based methodology combined with natural hazard studies generates comprehensive risk and crisis management.

The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM): a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant). Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM). The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc.) and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

About this title

The andesitic dome-building eruption of Soufrère Hills Volcano wreaked havoc on the small Caribbean island of Montserrat. About half of this ‘Emerald Isle’ was rendered barren and uninhabitable, almost two-thirds of the original population had to leave, and 19 lives were lost, all as a direct result of the volcanic activity. This Memoir presents results of monitoring and associated research covering almost five-years; from the onset of the eruption in July 1995 until November 1999. Many diverse phenomena related to the ascent and extrusion of andesitic magma have been studied at close quarters. The eruption has permitted detailed documentation and better understanding of processes and associated signals that lead to lava dome instability and to explosive decompression, and of the physical behaviour and characteristics of associated pyroclasti currents. It has also provided the opportunity for development of different methods in hazards assessment and zonation, including formal elicitations of international scientific expertise and statistical treatments of eruption-scenario models. The eruption and its consequences constitute an important case of volcanic crisis management and of the interactions between scientists, authorities and populace on a small island, with significant lessons for the future. This volume contains 30 papers, many of which address the chronology, dynamics, products and associated hazards of the eruption. It also includes papers specifically on the associated geophysics and geochemistry. Four introductory papers provide overviews of the eruption chronology and consequences, of the scientific results, of the evolution, organization, role and activities of the Montserrat Volcano Observatory, and of the volcanic evolution of Montserrat through time. A large photographic record of the 1995-1999 eruptive period is included.

Encyclopedia of Volcanoes

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Development Of A Volcanic Risk Assessment Information System For The Prevention And Management Of Volcanic Crisis: Stating The Fundamentals

The variety of constraints that conventional methods devised to account for volcanic risk have commonly faced, has limited the successful achievement of this kind of study. The detailed analysis and categorisation of the most common difficulties found by classical volcanic risk assessments has allowed us to identify the basic elements that risk calculation procedures would have to include to become efficient. Due to the operational improvement that the incorporation to the risk assessment context of technologies such as GIS and physical simulation models can provide, the development of a volcanic risk assessment information system for early prevention and management of volcanic crisis has been considered. Because of the lack of a previous extensive background on the application of GIS for these purposes, a previous study aimed at defining the procedures to be followed to analyse volcanic risk in the frame of a GIS has been carried out. In order to test the model devised, a pilot project devoted to assess the risk posed by lava flows at Tenerife island (Canary Islands, Spain) has been then carried out. Although the analysis of the results obtained indicates a good level of achievement of the objectives pursued, the complexity of the resulting calculation structure and the background knowledge required to manage it, make the system devised a tool difficult to master by the users that could eventually benefit of the methodology developed. These facts have called attention upon the need to improve the communication with the system through a customised interface, capable of satisfying the users' basic information requirements. To achieve this new goal, a methodology for object oriented design has been selected to define the basic architecture of the system.