Abstract
Abstract. Assessment and management of volcanic risk are important scientific, economic, and political issues, especially in densely populated areas threatened by volcanoes. The Virunga volcanic province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with over 1 million inhabitants, has to cope permanently with the threat posed by the active Nyamulagira and Nyiragongo volcanoes. During the past century, Nyamulagira erupted at intervals of 1–4 years – mostly in the form of lava flows – at least 30 times. Its summit and flank eruptions lasted for periods of a few days up to more than 2 years, and produced lava flows sometimes reaching distances of over 20 km from the volcano. Though most of the lava flows did not reach urban areas, only impacting the forests of the endangered Virunga National Park, some of them related to distal flank eruptions affected villages and roads. In order to identify a useful tool for lava flow hazard assessment at Goma Volcano Observatory (GVO), we tested VORIS 2.0.1 (Felpeto et al., 2007), a freely available software (http://www.gvb-csic.es) based on a probabilistic model that considers topography as the main parameter controlling the lava flow propagation. We tested different parameters and digital elevation models (DEM) – SRTM1, SRTM3, and ASTER GDEM – to evaluate the sensitivity of the models to changes in input parameters of VORIS 2.0.1. Simulations were tested against the known lava flows and topography from the 2010 Nyamulagira eruption. The results obtained show that VORIS 2.0.1 is a quick, easy-to-use tool for simulating lava-flow eruptions and replicates to a high degree of accuracy the eruptions tested when input parameters are appropriately chosen. In practice, these results will be used by GVO to calibrate VORIS for lava flow path forecasting during new eruptions, hence contributing to a better volcanic crisis management.
Highlights
During the past century, Nyamulagira, the westernmost volcano of the Virunga Volcanic Province (VVP), erupted at intervals of 1–4 years (Burt et al, 1994; Smets et al, 2010a, 2015)
In order to identify a useful tool for lava flow hazard assessment at Goma Volcano Observatory (GVO), we tested VORIS 2.0.1 (Felpeto et al, 2007), a freely available software based on a probabilistic model that considers topography as the main parameter controlling the lava flow propagation
To check whether VORIS could be of use to GVO for lava flow hazard assessment in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) volcanoes, and for quickly estimating the potential impact of new lava flows in the event of a new eruption, we tested this package’s lava-flow simulation model by replicating the Nyamulagira 2010 eruption, most of whose parameters and pre-eruption topography are known
Summary
Nyamulagira (or Nyamuragira), the westernmost volcano of the Virunga Volcanic Province (VVP), erupted at intervals of 1–4 years (Burt et al, 1994; Smets et al, 2010a, 2015). Crisci et al, 1986, 1997; Ishihara et al, 1989; Wadge et al, 1994; Kuauhicaua et al, 1995; Felpeto et al, 2001; Favalli et al, 2005; Damiani et al, 2006) and offer different degrees of accuracy, depending on the mathematical methods used to make calculations and the input parameters considered Most of these models only exist in the scientific literature and their source codes are not freely available. To check whether VORIS could be of use to GVO for lava flow hazard assessment in the DRC volcanoes, and for quickly estimating the potential impact of new lava flows in the event of a new eruption, we tested this package’s lava-flow simulation model by replicating the Nyamulagira 2010 eruption, most of whose parameters and pre-eruption topography are known
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