Management Decisions Research Articles

Comparison of in situ black-lipped oyster spat collection and larval dispersal modelling results in semi-closed pearl-farming lagoons of the Tuamotu Archipelago

Spat collection of the pearl oyster Pinctada margaritifera in atoll lagoons of French Polynesia is the fundamental sustain of black pearl farming. Spat collection has always yielded variable results in space and time, but obvious signs of steady decreases, even collapses, have emerged in several lagoons. Spat collection materializes the ecological connectivity pathways between wild spawning populations and the location of artificial larval settlement substrates. To assess if oyster larval dispersal modelling could capture such pathways, we compared four six-week long spat collector deployment periods with dispersal simulations in two different lagoons. Spat collectors displayed wide spatial and temporal variations. Numerical modelling and field experiments were generally not in agreement. Although both methods have limitations, they can still approximate each other. But the accuracy of model simulations cannot be ascertained with spat collection data only. Using a SWOT (Strength-Weakness-Opportunities-Threats) analysis, we emphasize the complementarity of both approaches for management decisions.

Meta-analysis of association between Just-in-Time system and firm performance: moderating effects of National Culture differences

PurposeThe effectiveness of the Just-in-Time (JIT) production system in non-Japanese contexts is a topic of diverse findings. This study conducts a meta-analysis of empirical research on JIT and its relationship with performance, focusing on studies published since 1995. Additionally, it examines the moderating influence of National Culture (NC) values on JIT outcomes.Design/methodology/approachA total of 59 empirical studies with 211 effects and 17,008 observations from 18 countries are meta-analyzed. A meta-regression using hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) is performed to explore how four dimensions of National Culture (NC) moderate the impact. (viz. institutional collectivism, uncertainty avoidance future orientation, and power distance,) based on the Global Leadership and Organizational Behavior Effectiveness (GLOBE) culture model.FindingsThe meta-analysis results show that improved production efficiency, product quality and reduced wastes achieved through JIT deployments translate into the overall performance of organizations. The meta-regression results shed light on how local cultures influence the effectiveness of JIT across different countries.Originality/valueThe findings of meta-analysis have implications for multinational manufacturers in realizing efficacy of JIT. The research adds to the international operations management literature by examining how NC values influence strategies and decisions in operations management.

Molecular changes and physiological responses involved in migratory bird fuel management and stopover decisions.

Migratory birds undertake long journeys across continents to reach breeding habitats with abundant resources. These migrations are essential for their survival and are shaped by a complex interplay of physiological adaptations, behavioral cues, and gene expression patterns. Central to migration are stopovers, critical resting points where birds replenish energy stores before continuing their journey. In this study, we integrate physiological measurements, behavioral observations, and molecular data from temporarily caged migrating Garden Warblers (Sylvia borin) to gain insights into their stopover strategies and physiological adaptations after crossing the extended ecological barrier formed by the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea. Depleted individuals, marked by low body mass and flight muscle mass, showcased remarkable plasticity in recovering and rapidly rebuilding energy stores within a short 5-day stopover. Flight muscle mass increased during this period, highlighting a dynamic trade-off between muscle rebuilding and refuelling. Notably, birds prioritizing muscle rebuilding exhibited a trade-off with the downregulation of genes related to lipid transport and metabolism and at the same time showing evidence of skeletal muscle angiogenesis. Early arrivals were more motivated to depart and exhibited higher levels of physiological stress. Our study highlights the importance of understanding the adaptive responses of birds to changing environmental conditions along their migration routes.

Soil quality assessment in the Araban plain across various land use types

BackgroundSoil is an important resource for improving the quality of human well-being and creating sustainable environmental awareness. Therefore, it is imperative to protect the soil health. This study determined quality of the soils in the Araban plain, Türkiye using three different methods, i.e., principal component analysis (PCA), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and expert opinion (EO). The major aim was to determine the most appropriate method for determining soil quality and recommending soil protection practices for improving quality. MethodsThis study was conducted on an area of approximately 25,000 ha. A total of 230 soil samples (7 pasture areas, 56 orchards, and 167 arable crops) were analyzed to determine key soil quality indicators. A minimum dataset consisting of parameters that best represent the soils of the region was created. Subsequently, PCA was used to predict soil quality with the optimal accuracy using the least amount of data. The EO was incorporated to validate the PCA results. The AHP was used to assign weights to the parameters. Indicators at all sampling points were converted to unitless scorers. These scores were then formulated as soil quality index (SQI) using the weighted summation method. ResultsOrganic matter (OM) exerted the highest impact on soil quality. Significant variations in SQI values were observed among arable land, orchards land and pastureland (P < 0.01). Significant variations were recorded in SQI values of the assessment methods employed in this study. The lowest (0.552) and highest (0.829) SQI values were recorded for AHP and EO, respectively. Overall, streamlining indicators through PCA gave the most accurate result for SQI value. Subsequently, SQI determination should involve weighing with AHP, particularly towards EO. ConclusionThe AHP was found to be the most appropriate method for evaluating soil quality in Araban. This integrated approach ensures a robust evaluation of soil quality, facilitating more accurate and nuanced insights for informed land management decisions. Overall, 92.61 % of the region’s soil had poor and medium soil quality. Therefore, increasing OM content and aggregate stability are suggested to improve soil quality in the study region.

Sex bias in pain management decisions

In the pursuit of mental and physical health, effective pain management stands as a cornerstone. Here, we examine a potential sex bias in pain management. Leveraging insights from psychological research showing that females' pain is stereotypically judged as less intense than males' pain, we hypothesize that there may be tangible differences in pain management decisions based on patients' sex. Our investigation spans emergency department (ED) datasets from two countries, including discharge notes of patients arriving with pain complaints (N = 21,851). Across these datasets, a consistent sex disparity emerges. Female patients are less likely to be prescribed pain-relief medications compared to males, and this disparity persists even after adjusting for patients' reported pain scores and numerous patient, physician, and ED variables. This disparity extends across medical practitioners, with both male and female physicians prescribing less pain-relief medications to females than to males. Additional analyses reveal that female patients' pain scores are 10% less likely to be recorded by nurses, and female patients spend an additional 30 min in the ED compared to male patients. A controlled experiment employing clinical vignettes reinforces our hypothesis, showing that nurses (N = 109) judge pain of female patients to be less intense than that of males. We argue that the findings reflect an undertreatment of female patients' pain. We discuss the troubling societal and medical implications of females' pain being overlooked and call for policy interventions to ensure equal pain treatment.

Why shouldn't I collect more data? Reconciling disagreements between intuition and value of information analyses

Abstract Value of information (VoI) analysis is a method for quantifying how additional information may improve management decisions, with applications ranging from conservation to fisheries. However, VoI studies frequently suggest that collecting more data will not substantially improve management outcomes. This often contradicts the intuition of ecologists and managers who usually believe new information is critical for management. This inconsistency is exacerbated by the perception that VoI is a black‐box method. A lack of understanding as to why VoI is usually lower than ecologists expect is hampering on‐ground uptake. There is an urgent need to identify the factors that drive VoI methodology to produce low values. Here, we use a rigorous approach to provide insights into why VoI values are often low. We first derive analytic solutions and upper bounds for a VoI problem with two uncertain states, two actions, and four management outcomes. We show how VoI changes with respect to the benefit (i.e. utility) of implementing actions in each state, and the probability the system is in each state. We apply our formulation to a published frog population management case study and extend the results numerically to 10 million randomly generated larger‐sized problems. Zero VoI occurred half of the time in our two‐action two‐state simulations, corresponding to when one action is best, or equal best, across all states. Even when VoI values were positive, they were typically low. However, on average, VoI tended to increase with the number of states and actions. Our analytic expression for VoI, in the case where VoI is positive, demonstrates that VoI is characterized by the state probabilities and, the utility gaps, that is the difference in utility of deploying each action in each state. Our derived bounds reveal that, in all two‐action two‐state systems, VoI cannot be larger than half the largest utility gap. Our simple, yet powerful, analysis provides precious insight into the important factors that drive VoI analysis. Our work provides an essential stepping stone towards increasing the interpretability of VoI analysis in more complex settings, ultimately empowering managers to use VoI to help inform their decisions.

Awareness and perceptions of contaminants in the Dehcho and Sahtú Regions of the Northwest Territories

ABSTRACT The development and dissemination of health messaging is a critical component of reducing health disparities. Participants (n = 87) from a human biomonitoring study in six Dene communities responded to a survey about health communication regarding contaminants. The survey included questions on awareness of health messages and risk perceptions related to country foods and contaminants. The vast majority of participants reported eating country foods (99%) and heard that country foods had beneficial nutrients (90%). Seventy per cent of respondents had heard or seen messages about fish with high levels of mercury, and 60% had concerns about the safety or quality of country foods they consumed. Respondents who reported decreasing the number of fish they ate since hearing the messages about fish and mercury had lower (p = 0.04) mercury concentration in hair, compared to those who had not heard the messages. However, no differences in hair mercury were observed for respondents who reported to have changed their fishing location, chosen smaller fish or eaten less predatory fish since hearing the messages. Results indicate the need to examine reasons for self-reported behaviour changes, in addition to awareness. The conclusions of this study can inform the development of messaging and risk management decisions about contaminants within Indigenous populations.

Modelling Climate Effects on Site Productivity and Developing Site Index Conversion Equations for Jack Pine and Trembling Aspen Mixed Stands

Forest site productivity estimates are crucial for making informed forest resource management decisions. These estimates are valuable both for the tree species currently growing in the stands and for those being considered for future stands. Current models are generally designed for pure stands and do not account for the influence of climate on tree growth. Consequently, site index (SI) conversion equations were developed specifically for jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) trees grown in naturally originated mixed stands. This work involved sampling 186 trees (93 of each species) from 31 even-aged mixed stands (3 trees per species per site) across Ontario, Canada. Stem analysis data from these trees were utilized to develop stand height growth models by incorporating climate variables for each species. The models were developed using a mixed effects modelling approach. The SI of one species was correlated with that of the other species and climate variables to establish SI conversion equations. The effect of climate on site productivity was evaluated by projecting stand heights at four geographic locations (east, center, west, and far west) in Ontario from 2022 to 2100 using the derived stand height growth models. Height projections were made under three emissions scenarios reflecting varying levels of radiative forcing by the end of the century (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 watts m−2). Climate effects were observed to vary across different regions, with the least and most pronounced effects noted in the central and far western areas, respectively, for jack pine, while effects were relatively similar across all locations for trembling aspen. Stand heights and SIs of jack pine and trembling aspen trees grown in naturally originated mixed stands can be estimated using the height growth models developed here. Similarly, SI conversion equations enable the estimation of the SI for one species based on the SI of another species and environmental variables.

Climate Change, Anthropogenic Pressure, and Sustainable Development of Karst Geosystems (A Case Study of the Brestnitsa Karst Geosystem in Northern Bulgaria)

This study examines climate change, anthropogenic impacts, and their relationship with the sustainable development of the Brestnitsa karst geosystem. It is representative of the karst in Bulgaria, which is developed on a quarter of its territory. The geosystem approach was used to reveal the interrelationships in a typical karst territory. The data were collected from more than 10 years of integrated monitoring of the geosystem, including continuous instrumental monitoring in the show cave Saeva Dupka, which is part of the geosystem. Various data from other sources were also used, such as satellite observations (a digital terrain model, land cover, and satellite images and products), ground data, and climate reanalyses. A spatial analysis of the karst geosystem in the context of climate change and sustainable development was conducted using a complex of remote sensing methods, geographic information systems, and statistical methods. The main results include the state and trends in the climate of the area, changes and trends in the speleoclimate and gas composition of the air in the Saeva Dupka cave, and changes in land use in the territory of the geosystem. Conclusions about the connections between climate change, current karstogenesis, and the carbon cycle in the geosystem, as well as the response of the geosystem to the consequences of the combined impact of climate change and human activities, have been made. All these impacts on the karst geosystem have been assessed in order to make adequate management decisions to guarantee its sustainable development in the future.

The first report of digenean infecting short mackerel (Rastrelliger brachysoma) from Chon Buri Province, the Gulf of Thailand

Rastrelliger brachysoma (Bleeker, 1851), the short mackerel, is a dietary staple and of significant economic demand in Southeast Asia and Thailand. However, the demand for short mackerel has precipitated an overfishing crisis, leading to a depletion of fish stocks. Overfishing, coupled with parasitism, may result in a decline in the population of R. brachysoma. Digenetic trematode infection is prevalent in marine fish and has a considerable impact on the overall health of the fish. Here, to identify digenetic trematodes infecting R. brachysoma, we aim to determine the identity, prevalence, and intensity of digenean infections in R. brachysoma from the Gulf of Thailand. A total of 194 short mackerel were obtained from Chon Buri Province, where digeneans were isolated and identified. The molecular identity of the digeneans was confirmed using the nuclear 28S rRNA gene. Of the 194 short mackerel, 100% were found to be infected with digeneans, comprising of Lecithocladium, Prodistomum, Opechona, and Aphanurus. Lecithocladium was the most prevalent (98%) and had the highest intensity of infection (37 mean intensity), followed by Prodistomum (75% prevalence and 17 mean intensity). Our study thus presents the first evidence of digeneans infecting the economically important short mackerel from the Gulf of Thailand. The high infection rate of digenetic trematodes may have implications on the health of R. brachysoma, further driving their population decline. These data underscore the importance of safeguarding fisheries resources in the Gulf of Thailand, and downstream conservation efforts are crucial for evidence-based management decisions to safeguard the long-term sustainability of fish resources.

Tipping points and farmer decision-making in European permanent grassland (PG) agricultural systems

Permanent grasslands (PG) provide multifunctional ecosystem services (ES) in Europe and globally, which are threatened by both increased farming intensity and land use change in marginal areas. Farm management decisions can represent critical thresholds, or behavioural “tipping points”, in the agricultural system. Decisions are influenced by a combination of agronomic, policy and social factors. Transformation of PG systems can be facilitated through positive tipping points and relevant policy implementation to ensure sustainable PG systems. The aim of this research was to understand the drivers of decisions regarding land use changes and management towards critical positive and negative tipping points across five biogeographic zones in Europe. Interview methodology assessed farmers’ preferences and priorities regarding the adoption of sustainable PG systems. Participants were selected from five case study countries, each representing a different biogeographic zone in Europe (Continental/Pannonian: Czech Republic, Boreal: Sweden, Mediterranean: Spain, Alpine: Switzerland, and Atlantic: UK). The sample also covered three farming intensity types within these biogeographic zones: high input/intensive conventional farms (≥1.0 LU/ha); low input/extensive conventional farms (<1.0 LU/ha); and certified organic farms. In total, 373 farm interviews were obtained from the case study countries between October 2020 and October 2021. The analysis focuses on drivers of change and considers tipping points across these countries, considering case studies of land use changes (specifically land abandonment) and land management practices (specifically changes in stocking rates). The most common reasons for PG management changes towards either intensification or extensification were economic. Farmers require policy support to increase provision of non-market ES, while rebalancing subsidies can deliver environmental ES at scale through abandonment (e.g., through the creation of specific habitats that support some threatened species). Agri-environment schemes (AES)and subsidies could be more flexible to allow farmers to better adapt grassland management to local production conditions and unpredictable circumstances such as droughts, floods, or market shocks. To maintain PG that delivers more goods and services, financial compensation for ES delivery was perceived to be the most significant support mechanism needed, while easier access to ES provision expertise through extension or consultancy services is considered important factor.

Sex Bias in Pain Management Decisions

Sex Bias in Pain Management Decisions

Monitoring of vegetation changes based on RS monitoring in Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve

High vegetation cover helps maintain the ecosystem's stability and reduces the risk of soil erosion and natural disasters. Vegetation restoration is essential for the ecological value of Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve. In this study, the interannual changes in vegetation cover in Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve, China, from 2013 to 2022 were studied in depth based on Landsat remote sensing data and land use transfer matrix. The study includes interannual dynamic changes in vegetation types, quantitative analysis of interannual changes in surface vegetation types, and the land use transfer matrix analysis. In addition, the drivers of dynamic changes in vegetation types were analysed. The research indicates a notable advancement in ecological restoration within Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve between 2013 and 2022. There was a substantial reduction in the extent of barren land, which predominantly transitioned into grass and woodland areas. In particular, the year 2022 exhibited a significant increase in grassland area when compared to 2013, with a remarkable expansion of 27.18 square kilometers, primarily concentrated in the central-eastern sector of the study area. The findings of this investigation serve as a valuable scientific foundation for guiding ecological preservation and management decisions within Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve, contributing to a deeper comprehension of the evolving patterns in vegetation cover.

Importance of Both Clinical and Dermoscopic Findings in Predicting High-Risk Histopathological Subtype in Facial Basal Cell Carcinomas.

Being able to recognize high-risk facial basal cell carcinoma (BCC) may lead to fewer incomplete excisions and inappropriate treatments. We sought to investigate clinical and dermoscopic criteria for predicting facial BCC subtypes, analyze the interobserver agreement between readers, and develop a diagnostic algorithm to predict high-risk histopathological subtype. In this single-center, retrospective investigation, 6 independent readers evaluated predefined clinical and dermoscopic criteria in images of histopathologically verified primary facial BCCs including: topography, border demarcation, vessels, ulceration, white porcelain areas, shiny white blotches and strands, and pigmented structures and vessels within ulceration. Overall, 297 clinical and dermoscopic image pairs were analyzed. The strongest associations with high-risk subtype were: "bumpy" topography (OR 3.8, 95% CI, 3.1-4.7), ill-defined borders (OR 3.4, 95% CI 3.1-4.7), white porcelain area (OR 3.5, 95% CI 2.8-4.5), and vessels within ulceration (OR 3.1, 95% CI 2.4-4.1). Predominantly focused vessels were a positive diagnostic criterium for either nodular (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.2) or high-risk (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.6-2.5) subtypes and a strong negative diagnostic criterium for superficial BCC (OR 14.0, 95% CI 9.6-20.8). Interobserver agreement ranged from fair to substantial (κ = 0.36 to 0.72). A diagnostic algorithm based on these findings demonstrated a sensitivity of 81.4% (95% CI, 78.9-83.7%) and a specificity of 53.3% (95% CI, 49.7-56.9%) for predicting high-risk BCC subtype. Integration of both clinical and dermoscopic features (including novel features such as topography and vessels within ulceration) are essential to improve subtype prediction of facial BCCs and management decisions.

Editorial Introduction to Issue 39: Managing Complexity and Knowledge in Enterprise Projects

This issue of CSIMQ includes five articles selected on the topics of complexity management and knowledge management in enterprises from various perspectives and towards diverse goals: the economic and societal perspective seeking strategy fulfillment with the help of enterprise architecture management, the operational performance perspective, which requires grounding management decisions on data insights, and the human aspect perspective to facilitate collaboration, creativity and innovation. Methodologically, the issue reports a mix of conceptual modeling and analytics approaches, suggesting an emerging requirement to balance or alternate, in complexity management, abstraction-based analysis, and data-oriented analytics.

УПРАВЛІННЯ ФІНАНСОВИМИ РЕСУРСАМИ ТЕРИТОРІАЛЬНИХ ГРОМАД У СИСТЕМІ ПУБЛІЧНИХ ФІНАНСІВ

The article examines the elements of managing the financial resources of territorial communities in the public finance system. The essence of the concept of public finance was analyzed, the classification of the sources of the formation of financial resources of territorial communities was considered, the level of effectiveness of local self-government bodies in the implementation of the functions and powers assigned to them and their role in managing the resource potential of socio-economic development of administrative-territorial units was investigated. It is established that local financial resources management is carried out using an integrated approach, which includes a combination of resources of the State and non-State sectors of the economy. This is done with a view to achieving the goals and indicators of socio-economic development set out in the planning process in the interests of the population of the administrative-territorial entity. In this context, it is important to apply the principles of financial support for the development of territorial communities in the activities of local public authorities. The analysis of the development of the local finance management system has led to the conclusion that it is advisable to determine a comprehensive indicator of the resource provision of local budgets. It should take into account the indicators of revenues per capita, the percentage of budget subsidies, the amount of funds raised through grant support project activities, the share of borrowing made to the local budget, the assessment of the communal property management indicators of the territorial community, etc. The generalised indicator will make it possible to compare the state of financial and resource provision of the territorial community in regions with different levels of economic, natural, recreational and social potential. At the same time, it should be clearly understood that the system of financial management of territorial communities is fundamentally determined by those who actually, not nominally, influence the development and implementation of management decisions and have actual levers of influence on it.

ON SUBSTANTIATING THE NECESSITY OF CREATING AND USE OF CONSENSUS MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIAL COMMUNITIES IN UKRAINE

Based on the analysis of the concept, essence and content of the term «consensus», the article suggests that it is quite appropriate to use it in the processes of practical management of territorial communities of Ukraine, which today urgently need to use innovative principles of public consensus formation in relation to solving the problems of their development. It is demonstrated that the issue of managing the processes of reaching consensus at the basic level of territorial communities of Ukrainian society has not been studied or researched at all. It is proved that the technology of consensus building requires consolidation of intellectual resources of the population of the territorial community, which, in turn, requires professional management based on the intellectualization of personnel and leadership in local self-government bodies. At the same time, the main tool for achieving consensus is the use by leaders and functionaries of the governing body of a constructive dialogue with the population, based on logic and rational assessments of realities, when the parties resolve all issues by coming to a common opinion and common agreement, which raises the problem of increasing the professionalism of governance on the basis of intellectual interaction, analytical thinking and creative approach to the adoption and implementation of management decisions based on the «dictatorship of reason» and the intellectual consensus of the leadership and the population. For this purpose, territorial communities should «...be governed not by the strongest, but by the smartest».

EVALUATION AND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR PATIENTS WITH BLUNT ABDOMINAL TRAUMA: A HOSPITAL-BASED STUDY

Introduction:Blunt trauma to the abdomen occurs due to forces that induce shearing, compression, or deceleration injuries, particularly affecting anatomical structures that are relatively immobile. The evaluation of abdominal injuries is challenging and often results in missed diagnoses due to the complexity of symptoms and the difficulty in identifying subtle signs of internal injury. Aims &amp; Objectives:To study the clinical presentation, evaluation, diagnostic investigations, and management strategies for various intra-abdominal organ injuries resulting from blunt trauma to the abdomen. Methods: - Following initial resuscitation and attainment of hemodynamic stability, all blunt abdominal trauma patients underwent meticulous clinical history-taking and comprehensive physical examination. Subsequent management decisions, whether operative or non-operative, were determined based on the integrated findings of clinical assessments and radiological evaluations. Results:Between August 2022 and August 2023, fifty (50) patients with blunt trauma to the abdomen were admitted to Basaveshwara Teaching and General Hospital, Kalaburagi. In this study, males predominated in the 21 to 30-year age group, which represented the most frequent demographic for abdominal blunt trauma. Traffic collisions were identified as the leading cause of abdominal blunt trauma. The spleen emerged as the organ most frequently affected. Of the patients, 28 underwent conservative management, while 22 required surgical intervention. Conclusion:In cases of blunt trauma to the abdomen, the early hours following injury are critically significant and represent a crucial window, often referred to as the golden period of trauma, associated with higher survival rates. Timely intervention andappropriate management during this phase have been shown to significantly decrease morbidity and mortality rates associated with blunt trauma abdomenandappropriate management during this phase have been shown to significantly decrease morbidity and mortality rates associated with blunt trauma abdomen.

MULTI-AGENT SIMULATION MODEL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE SPREAD

The aim of the research is to develop a multi-agent simulation model for predicting the spread of infectious diseases, particularly COVID-19. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, there emerged an urgent need to create tools for forecasting and analyzing the dynamics of epidemics, as well as for evaluating the effectiveness of management decisions. The use of mathematical models in this process allows for an adequate description of the infection spread dynamics, which is essential for making informed decisions. The article discusses traditional approaches to epidemic modeling, such as the predator-prey model and the compartmental SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model. The predator-prey model describes the interaction between two species in an ecosystem using differential equations, which allows for modeling population dynamics. The compartmental SIR model divides the population into three groups: susceptible, infected, and recovered, which enables the analysis of the spread of infectious diseases. However, these models have limitations, particularly due to assumptions about population homogeneity and constant parameters. To more accurately model complex epidemic processes, a multi-agent simulation model was developed. In this model, agents interact within a defined area, mimicking real conditions of infection spread. Agents are divided into three classes: healthy, infected, and recovered. The movement of agents is modeled using random walk in a two-dimensional space, taking into account the possibility of contact between them, which can lead to infection. Infected agents transition to the recovered class after a certain period of illness and can no longer be infected. Modeling results showed that the multi-agent model allows for more accurate prediction of infection spread dynamics. Numerous experiments were conducted, demonstrating the model's adequacy in replicating the infection process, peak infection rates, and recovery periods. The influence of various parameters, such as the duration of illness, on the epidemic dynamics was investigated. The obtained results confirm that considering individual characteristics and behavioral traits of agents improves the accuracy of modeling. This allows the multi-agent simulation model to be used for developing effective control strategies and predicting the spread of infectious diseases, which can be useful for making management decisions in real pandemic conditions.

Near‐infrared spectroscopy and deep neural networks for early common root rot detection in wheat from multi‐season trials

AbstractIn Australia, the soil‐borne disease common root rot (Bipolaris sorokiniana) (CRR) in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) leads to substantial yield losses, yet has limited visible aboveground symptoms, making detection and identification labor intensive. Near‐infrared (NIR) spectroscopy offers an early potential identification solution for CRR in wheat and has previously been reported with success for crop disease detection. This study investigated the ability of nondestructive NIR spectroscopy in combination with deep neural networks (DNN), logistic regression (LR), and principal component analysis combined with support vector machines (PCA‐SVM) for early‐stage CRR detection in wheat. NIR spectra of five different wheat varieties with varying resistance to CRR were collected in two seasons of glasshouse and three seasons of field trials using a portable spectrometer. Results demonstrated that DNN outperformed LR and PCA‐SVM, achieving 66%–91% average classification accuracy in glasshouse trials and an average accuracy of 73% with up to 87% in field trials, effectively distinguishing inoculated and non‐inoculated wheat plants from seedling to anthesis stages. Validation with a third season of field data achieved an average of 77% accuracy for the most susceptible variety during the stem elongation stage. NIR reflectance within 1600–1700 nm was identified as most important for estimating CRR presence, with initial detection occurring 35 days after sowing (DAS) in the glasshouse and 46 DAS in the field. In conclusion, a NIR spectrometer with a DNN model successfully performed disease classification, with the potential as a portable early disease detection tool to assist farm management decisions.