PurposeEnsuring energy security and controlling the share of energy in climate change are the two main challenges of the energy sector in the path of a sustainable future. This study has designed the dynamic model of Iran’s electrical energy supply system based on the water-food-energy-climate change nexus in order to identify sustainable policies for the supply of electrical energy resources and adaptation to Iran’s climate change process.Design/methodology/approachFor this purpose, first, the system dynamics model was designed with the participation of policymakers and the supply and demand data of water-food-energy resources and the trend of climate change and economic growth in Iran. After validation, the model is simulated in the 30-year horizon (2020–2050), and according to the results of the Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis, Iran’s electric energy supply policies are based on four strategies, including (1) Electric energy supply based on electric energy supply management from non-renewable sources, (2) Development of electrical energy supply based on management of energy supply from renewable sources, (3) Electrical energy supply based on electrical energy demand management and (4) Electrical energy supply based on adaptation to climate changes. By identifying and applying the policies of each strategy separately, the model was tested and the results were compared.FindingsBased on the implementation of the combination of selected policies in the model, the following policies have been proposed: 16% development of nuclear power plants, 18% reduction in the ratio of production of gas power plants to the total production of non-renewable power plants, and an increase in the production of combined cycle power plants through conversion of gas to combined cycle, energy aggregation and development of heat recovery systems in industrial units by 32%, a decrease of 5% Energy transmission and distribution losses, per capita reduction of energy consumption from 0.926 to the global average of 0.182 (MW) per year, management of water demand in the food sector by increasing irrigation efficiency to about 85%, a 27% increase in the area of land under the irrigation network, and reducing losses Food amounting to the global average of 0.9 m tons per year.Originality/valueThe proposed model is an application of system dynamics in the field of policymaking to ensure the security of electrical energy resources, taking into account the water-food-energy-climate changes nexus. The model is a valuable tool for policymakers in planning the sustainable management of resources in the path of adapting to climate change.
Read full abstract