Man-made Risks Research Articles

Global Warming and Climate Change – Need of Nuclear Energy

Global warming and climate change are the central point of scientific discussion and research around the world in 21st Century, the endeavor to alleviate the adverse impacts. The looming crisis of rising of global mean surface temperature by 1.5 oC and/or 2 oC over and above the pre-industrial level compelled the international community to execute the Paris Agreement in 2015. This is an agreement negotiated by 196 countries emphasizing the exigency to reduce the emission intensity of greenhouse gases and adopt measures to mitigate the adverse effect on the ecosystem. Extreme temperatures; more intense and frequent storms, droughts & floods; ocean acidifications; warmer ocean; loss of biodiversity; disruption of crops and increased health risks are reported across the regions which reflects the adverse effects of global warming and climate change. Intensity, frequency and scale of these man-made risks are going to follow an upward trend till the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases to limit the anticipated temperature rise [1].

Determination of technogenic risks when using various water purification technologies

In modern conditions, ensuring the reliability and safety of water supply systems is a primary task for the industrial economy and the safety of life of the population of Ukraine. Constant bombing and damage to critical infrastructure facilities, including water management facilities, endangers the stability and quality of the country's water resources. In this context, conducting research on the identification of man-made risks in water treatment systems using various technologies, as well as developing strategies to increase the reliability and safety of operation of water supply systems are becoming relevant for the industrial sector of Ukraine. In order to increase the reliability of water treatment units and their operational safety, man-made risks were investigated when using ion exchange, electrodialysis, and water distillation technologies at thermal power plants. It is shown that during normal operation of the ion-exchange water purification system with an average productivity of 400 m3/h, in the case of frequent changes in the concentration of salts at the inlet, the risk of receiving underpurified water is 0.0783. This value must be taken into account for the assessment of economic and social-ecological risks, since it exceeds the generally accepted value of 0.01. When using electrodialysis water purification and frequent changes in the concentration of salts at the inlet, the risk of receiving underpurified water is 0.0271. This value is also greater than 0.01 risk accepted as acceptable. The water distillation technology has enough margin to compensate for any deviations in the purification process and gives a very low risk. However, the distillation process is more effective in removing only soluble impurities, while in the case of suspended substances, in particular of organic origin, there is a risk of exceeding the limit of 0.01.

Labor safety improvement at heat and power supply facilities

Improving the occupational safety management system involves the development of recommendations for implementing modern methods for assessing occupational risks and the hazards of technological processes, using effective collective and individual protection tools, making decisions on the development of investment programs intended to improve conditions and labor protection at enterprises. The purpose of the study is to analyze accidents and injuries at heat and power supply facilities and develop measures to improve occupational safety management and reduce man-made risks. The procedure for selecting an optimal method for managing occupational safety, assessing professional risks, and the method of informing about working conditions using digital technologies were used. Measures aimed to manage occupational risks at heat and power supply facilities were developed. It was recommended to involve qualified specialists and psychologists in labor safety management, to implement digital technologies to calculate the level of occupational risks and inform workers about working conditions. Recommendations on occupational safety culture as a measure aimed to improve industrial safety were given. The proposed measures may improve safety and working conditions at heat and power supply facilities, improve social responsibility and safety culture, and simplify the procedure for informing workers about occupational risks.

How to conceptualize the connotation of “resilience – risk” for critical infrastructures? An exploratory theoretical framework

Critical infrastructures (CIs) play an important role in urban economic development and the maintenance of social stability. In recent years, with the increase in natural and man-made risk events affecting CI operations, CI risk management is facing severe challenges and gradually transitioning to CI resilience management. However, the connotation of “resilience - risk” for CIs is still not clearly conceptualized. To address this problem, an exploratory theoretical framework is constructed, including three stages of system resilience identification, resilience impact analysis and connotation element extraction. Subsequently, based on the constructed framework, probability, consequence, and resilience-based scenario that align with the resilience characteristics and impact analysis results are extracted as connotation elements to define a triplet spatial-temporal evolution function of “resilience - risk”. This study can provide a theoretical reference for better understanding the relationship between CI resilience and CI risk.

РИСКОВАЯ СРЕДА РОССИЙСКИХ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ НЕФТЕГАЗОВОЙ ОТРАСЛИ

The scientific article is devoted to an overview of the current risk environment of the Rus-sian oil and gas sector. Based on statistical data, it is shown that oil and gas enterprises make a significant contribution to the GDP of the Russian Federation, to the formation of the country’s budget, while soon, the importance of the oil and gas industry in both the domestic and global econ-omies is not expected to decrease. Nevertheless, there is an obvious trend towards a decrease in the share of oil and gas budget revenues since 2014, as well as their absolute value. As a result of the analysis of scientific sources, it was revealed that the functioning of oil and gas enterprises is accom-panied by a wide range of risks of various nature. The author has reviewed the risks characteristic of oil and gas industry enterprises, considered some approaches to their classification, most studies highlight technological, personnel, geological, environmental, price, financial, investment, regula-tory, and political risks. According to insurance companies, the most significant damage is caused by the implementation of man-made risks. The accumulated risk management experience has allowed Russian oil and gas sector enterprises to form effective integrated risk management systems. At the same time, there is an increase in uncertainty about the operating conditions of oil and gas enterprises in Russia, due to a significant increase in sanctions pressure on the industry after Febru-ary 2022. The sanctions significantly limit the opportunities for trade in products of Russian enter-prises in the oil and gas sector, and erect barriers to the innovative development of the oil and gas industry in Russia. Nevertheless, enterprises, with the support of the state, managed to reduce the negative impact of sanctions risks by redirecting their flows mainly to Asian markets, using parallel import technologies for critical oilfield service infrastructure and transfer of critical technologies. This will partially reduce the increase in the technological lag of the industry in the face of sanctions, however, given the continued high level of geopolitical risks in the foreseeable future, a prerequisite for the successful development of Russian oil and gas enterprises is the activation of import substi-tution processes, as well as ensuring interaction with high-tech enterprises of the military-industrial complex.

Cultural Heritage Protection from Disaster Impacts: A Review of Global Disaster Risk Reduction Frameworks

Cultural heritage inheritance was a valuable asset passed down through many centuries. Nevertheless, the assets were in significant danger of suffering damage in the case of a disaster, which might have been caused by either naturally occurring or man-made risks. The fragility of the cultural heritage has not yet received sufficient protection from the massive disaster risk management that is being done all over the world, despite the frequency of natural disasters growing because of climate change. This paper aims to investigate whether or not the current methods of disaster risk reduction (DRR) are sufficient to protect cultural assets. The existing gap in the improvement of the inclusion of cultural heritage protection into the current disaster risk management was identified through a comparative study of already extant worldwide DRR frameworks. The protection of cultural assets receives less priority throughout the many components of the disaster risk management plan, according to an analysis of multiple DRR frameworks, including the most recent Sendai Framework 2015-2030.

Social vulnerability of historic Districts: A composite measuring scale to statistically predict human-made hazards

One of the significant challenges in heritage risk assessment is concentrating on investigating physical characteristics in assessing man-made hazards and vulnerabilities without addressing the social aspects that may affect the potential rates of man-made risks on heritage buildings and surrounding historic fabric. This article aims to investigate the predictive relationship between human-made hazards in historic districts and the socio-economic weaknesses that represent Social Vulnerability of Historic Districts (SVHD). The methodology comprises a literature review for extracting the most relevant items of SVHD. Subsequently, a content validation was performed. To enhance the quality and effectiveness of the study, a pilot study was implemented for seventy-three historic districts in historic Cairo, Egypt. Then, using IBM SPSS statistics 20, exploratory factor analysis was executed to develop fewer factors of SVHD from the extracted items and establish their validity and reliability. Finally, multiple linear regression was carried using the surveyed data of human-made hazards rates occurring in the study cases. As a result, the regression analysis developed three predictive models: (the humans model, the heritage buildings model, and the context model). These models have been succussed in predicting the potential rates of human-made hazards significantly. The resulting models highlighted the importance of investigating the social component to predict human-made hazards in historic districts using a quantitative assessment tool. This would help authorities in formulating suitable strategies for the effective performance of historic districts.

Modernization of electrical equipment as a way of reducing the risks of emergency situations at nuclear power plants

An analysis of major accidents in the electric power and coal industry was carried out. It is shown that for many types of technological equipment, the cause of failure was the unsatisfactory performance of the seals. It is shown that in two known nuclear accidents, the cause is the failure of coolant supply systems. Moreover, it had catastrophic consequences at the Fukushima nuclear power plant. The direct cause of the cessation of cooling of the reactors was the ingress of water into the electric motors of the circulation pumps. Most electric drives of nuclear power plants are synchronous electric motors. Turbogenerators are also synchronous four-pole electric machines of great value, which determines the expediency of increasing their reliability and service life. The solution to this problem is possible with the help of magnetic fluid sealing complexes (MFCs). To compare the level of man-made safety when using MFCs and traditional sealing systems, an improved method of risk assessment is proposed, developed at the expense of a systematic analysis of sealing complexes of equipment of hazardous industries for synchronous electric motors of the SDN type under different modes of operation, power and revolutions of the rotating shaft. The man-made risk assessment shows that the level of man-made danger is reduced by 1.5 to 4 times when sealants are introduced.

Explaining of the experts' points of view about the types and importance of man-made hazards in Iran’s process industries: A qualitative study

IntroductionProcess industries may have different hazards that can cause serious injury to humans, the environment, and the economy. Considering the importance of man-made risks in process industries, Experts' Points of View should be considered to apply risk reduction strategies Hence, the present study was performed to explain the views of experts regarding the types and importance of man-made hazards in process industries. Materials and methodsThis study was conducted using a qualitative method of directed content analysis with a deductive approach. The participants included 22 experts in the field of process industries. The selection of samples started purposeful and continued until data saturation. Data collection was done through semi-structured interviews. ResultsBased on experts' points of view, 5 man-made hazards in process industries were classified into 14 subcategories. The man category was divided into three subcategories: human error, technical knowledge error, and management error, the Material category was divided into 3 sub-categories of leakage and rupture, chemical properties, physical properties, Medium category was divided into two sub-categories of incorrect location selection and placement and harmful environmental factors, Machines category was divided into three sub-categories of failure in design, failure in Preventive Maintenance (PM), failure in Safety Instrumented System (SIS), and the Methods category was classified into three sub-categories: defects in inspection, defects in information, defects in executive instructions. ConclusionTechnical training to reduce personnel errors, conducting risk-based inspections to control leaks and possible ruptures, careful design and site selection in the initial phase of the project, is recommended. The use of engineering methods and artificial intelligence to obtain the risk number and control methods to reduce the harmful effects of risks can be helpful.

Changes in the spatial vulnerability of the large cities population to natural and man-made hazards under the influence of housing construction

The study purpose is to assess the degree of influence of the new large residential complexes commissioning on the main parameter of the spatial vulnerability of the Moscow population to natural and man-made hazards – its density. For this purpose, the key indicators of housing commissioning in Moscow for 2011-2021 were analyzed. The use of Big Data (data from mobile operators) made it possible to determine the actual change in population density for 2018-2019 on the largest possible scale – in cells of 500 by 500 m. The indicators of the present population density according to the mobile operators’ data on weekday winter nights in 2018 and 2019 were compared with indicators of growth in the housing stock for the considered period. The established dependence of these indicators can later be used to predict the intracity dynamics of the population in studies of natural and man-made risks, when longer time series of mobile operators’ data become available for Moscow. In addition, this study also considered the factors of increasing natural and man-made hazards in Moscow districts associated with housing construction. It was found that due to the limited free land resources for new construction on the territory of Old Moscow, most housing complexes are localized in areas of increased engineering-geological and technogenic danger. Additional risk factors are an increase in the number of storeys and building density. They are characterized by a steady positive trend over the period under review.

Assessment of air quality and damage caused after an anthropogenic disaster in the city of Beirut

Air pollution is an important cause of concern and has a significant impact on health as well as the environment. Air pollutants are released into the atmosphere by various sources, and the concentration in cities is mainly due to anthropogenic sources like emissions from industries, factories, vehicles, fossil fuel combustion, waste production, etc. But certain high episodes of air pollution can be witnessed in cities which can cause serious threats to human beings and the environment. Remote sensing is one of the sustainable measures, which allows the integration and presentation of useful information at various temporal and spatial scales. This tool can be helpful in understanding and managing natural disasters and man-made risks contributing to air pollution. Analyzing the cause of such high pollution episodes can help to take necessary steps to reduce the emissions, and damage or to take precautions to avoid man-made disasters. One such incident of an explosion of ammonium nitrate in a port had a long-lasting impact on the air quality in Beirut where the average concentration of air pollution already exceeds WHO threshold limits. This paper explores the concentration of aerosols and NO2, before and after the incident of an explosion that took place in Beirut. Assessment of the damage near the port caused by the explosion in Beirut was done using a change detection technique for which an algorithm was developed. Due to the non-availability of field data for the study area of Beirut, the algorithm was developed and validated for Chennai city and extended to Beirut. The aerosol and NO2 concentration data were extracted from sentinel-5p/TROPOMOI and validated with ground data through regression analysis. The results obtained from this study can be used as an early warning system and decision support system for mitigating loss due to the explosion.

Forest Fire Analysis with Sentinel-2 Satellite Imagery: The Case of Mati (Greece) in 2018

Due to the damage they cause to the environment, forest fires have an important place among the disasters that occur around world. In recent years, forest fires have increased in frequency, size and intensity, especially in Mediterranean countries. Preventive measures should be taken and risk reduction should be implemented so that natural or man-made risks do not turn into a catastrophe disaster. After a disaster commences, the implementation of evacuation plans for the settlement, when necessary, is of great importance in this context. One of these forest fires started on July 23, 2018 in the popular holiday resort of Mati in Greece. Mati located within the borders of the Attica region and 29km east of the Athens, was examined within the scope of this study. The forest fire that took place in the said regions affected a very large area and the fires caused the death of 103 people and the destruction of approximately 4,000 houses, including thousands of vehicles. In the study, data processing and evaluation using Sentinel-2 satellite images from the Copernicus program of the European Space Agency (ESA), SNAP software, an open source software developed by ESA and the ArcMap program were used for subsequent statistical calculations. As a result, it was determined how much the area was burned with the help of Sentinel-2 satellites and a study was carried out on the mapping of the affected areas. In addition, the relationship between disaster risk reduction activities has been examined.

The Impacts of Armed Conflicts and Civilian Uprisings on Children's Health.

Besides the most common causes of death, children under 14 may suffer from the consequences of disasters and emergencies caused by natural and manmade risks and hazards. These incidents may be prevented by proper risk assessment and the prevention of unnecessary deaths by increasing the safety and well-being of children. An increasing number of manmade incidents are seen in international, non-international, and domestic conflicts when government forces use heavy and light weapons within countries with autocratic leadership. These deaths should be mitigated by holding perpetrators responsible for their deeds and respecting international humanitarian law, human rights, and children's rights.

Social Distancing and the Deficit of Presence (a Philosophical Reflection on the Covid-19 Pandemic)

This paper argues that if the COVID-19 pandemic turns out to be a man-made risk (А. Giddens), i.e. an unforeseen consequence of a person's behavior and actions, then, in order to avoid such fatal contingencies that occur so unexpectedly, it is necessary to change the type of behavior and actions that have been established in the culture of the Modern Period. People have been forced to observe the spatial order during the pandemic. Social distancing, self-isolation, the Red Zone, and other spatial limitations have made people aware of the deficit of presence and the lack of independent, active participation in life. On the one hand, the novel coronavirus has returned us to an awareness of the biological, natural origin of human existence, which has been forgotten by culture (science). On the other hand, the practices of social rationing and restriction have revealed the influence of various forms of alienation – social, political, economic, and cultural – on the fate of each individual. Introducing the bio-principle (the virus) into the social, cultural, and political space radically changes the relationship between people and nature. This situation forces us to contemplate the meaning of the concept of culture, which received its definition in the 18th century and is understood as non-nature, as reflected in the formula culture versus nature. This paper shows that the cultural ideal of human activity, established in modern times, is the reason behind the alienation of technogenic civilization and social forms of life from nature. By destroying nature and turning it into material for people's various techne, people found themselves in conflict with their own life. Culture has lost its inner meaning of the presence of the world and of an individual, which dissolved in various interpretations and ideas. Contemporary history is moving towards establishing a culture of presence, where the world is viewed not as a mere material to be used but as an area for humans to engage with. Today, we see the assertion of the right to difference and the right to the presence of diversity – in nature, culture, and politics (the struggle for a multipolar world) and in the personal domain (selfies, blogs, chats, etc.).

Имитационная модель функционирования человеко-машинной системы и показатели её эффективности

Reliability and safety of electrical installations (ES) of production facilities under operating conditions depends on many factors. Taking into account and minimizing their influence, especially for human-machine systems (HMS), where personnel is involved in the maintenance of the ES, requires a systematic approach that combines theoretical and experimental studies. Modern production facilities have a complex structure of power supply, including external and internal electrical equipment, etc. All this requires an effective system for monitoring and diagnosing the parameters and modes of electrical installations. The analysis of control results underlies decision-making, the formation of inference rules, the formation of databases and knowledge in order to predict and manage man-made risks of electrical installations. Moreover, diagnosing the technical condition of the ED is one of the main factors for ensuring the efficiency of their operation under conditions of uncertainty caused by the objectively existing dynamic process of the functioning of the human-machine system. Keywords: MAN-MADE FIRES, LEAKAGE CURRENTS IN ELECTRICAL INSTALLATIONS, THERMAL OVERLOAD, HUMAN-MACHINE SYSTEM

INVESTIGATING OVERTOURISM IMPACTS, PERCEIVED MAN-MADE RISK AND TOURIST REVISIT INTENTION

This research explores the interrelationships between overtourism impacts, perceived man-made risk and revisit intention among tourists visiting Melaka UNESCO World Heritage Site (WHS). The aim of the study is to illustrate the overutilization of destination resources and subsequent human risk that shape tourist behavioural from the outlooks of sustainable and tourism impacts. Five hundred and ninety-three responses were quantitatively collected through an online data collection. Partial least square structural equation modelling (PLSSEM) is employed to investigate the research hypotheses. It can be reported overtourism impacts have positive and significant influence on the perceived man-made risks. However, this is not the case for the relationship between overtourism impacts on revisit intention, and the perceived man-made risk on the latter construct. This renders the potential mediation role of perceived man-made risk as insignificant. The findings heighten the unique dynamics of overtourism within developing WHS planning in shaping tourist revisit intention.

Natural and Man-Made Risks of the Southern Baikal Area

Objective. In the last decade, there has been a significant increase in natural phenomena, leading to catastrophic consequences. In this regard, there is a need to use science-based risk-oriented approaches to ensure the safety of people and protect the environment. Zoning of territories according to the levels of risk of emergency situations makes it possible to effectively process and respond to risk. This paper presents an analysis of the risks inherent in natural and man-made disasters in the Southern Baikal Area of the Irkutsk Region and a quantitative assessment of their level based on the modern risk analysis methodology.Methods. We used a retrospective statistical analysis and modeling of possible emergency situations. The processing and synthesis of statistical data was carried out as a whole for the Slyudyansky Municipality of the Irkutsk Region for the period 2015—2019 according to the data of the State Reports “On the State of the Protection of the Population and Territories of the Russian Federation from Natural and Man-made Emergencies” in the relevant years.Results. We assessed the complex risk indicator of the territory, which consists of the potential territorial risk, and the collective risk indicator, which characterizes the level of damage. We calculated the average individual risk of death of the population as a result of the cumulative impact of the damaging factors of emergency situations. It was shown that it exceeded the values of the acceptable risk adopted for the Irkutsk Region by 4.2 times. Based on the modeling of manmade emergencies with depressurization of containers with hazardous substances transported by rail and modeling of damage during catastrophic earthquakes that are possible in a given area, social risk curves were calculated and built. Based on all the results obtained, the zoning of the territory of the Southern Baikal Area was carried out according to the risks of emergencies.Conclusion. Based on the assessments of the complex risk, the territory of the Southern Baikal Area of the Irkutsk Region belongs to the zones with increased risk of natural and man-made emergency situations.

BUDGET POLICY OF HYDROCARBON TRANSPORT ENTERPRISES IN THE FIELD OF DECARBONIZATION

The socio-economic situation of each community, regions and the country as a whole, the implementation of functions and tasks of all authorities, the efficiency of public services and the effectiveness of all participants in the budget process depend on properly organized management of the budget process. The budget process is a continuous process of consistent action aimed at ensuring the sustainable functioning of the budget sector and funding other priority programs and activities. With the implementation of administrative-territorial reform and decentralization of power in Ukraine, the system of inter-budgetary relations and budget equalization in particular has changed. To strengthen the financial base of local budgets, the vector of regulation was shifted from equalization “by expenditure” to equalization “by income”. However, the introduction of a new system of financial equalization is associated with a number of risks. Ukraine’s oil and gas industry has always been one of the main budget-generators, but the activities of its enterprises are accompanied by the risks of man-made disasters, the consequences of which lead to greenhouse gas emissions. In this article, the authors emphasize the need to form a carbon tax as a compensator for the greenhouse effect and the formation of a quality socially responsible budget policy of enterprises that transport hydrocarbons. A brief overview of the principles and grounds of budget policy of Ukraine. An analysis of carbon pricing initiatives has been made. A list of determinants influencing the decarbonisation process is proposed, and carbon pricing should be based on economic and environmental assessments of man-made risks, as none of the available carbon pricing instruments in the world set the price at a level that would reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.

MAPPING OF AVALANCHE HAZARD ALONG THE OSH-BISHKEK ROAD

This article describes in detail the new methodology and results of research on mapping and development of the avalanche hazard geodatabase of the Bishkek-Osh transport corridor. The Bishkek-Osh Road, connecting the northern and southern parts of the country, has a strategic role, but prone to various types of natural and man-made risks, the most frequent of which are avalanches. Reduction of the avalanche risk, which annually cause significant socio-economic losses, is possible with the application of new technologies, scientific and technological achievements. The research has used modern geoinformation technologies and methods for studying geographic, topographic, soil-geological, hydrometeorological, botanical and other objects on the most avalanche prone sections of the Bishkek-Osh Road. A geodatabase has been developed with digital maps of the area and avalanches based on the results of digitized paper maps and entering operational and statistical data on snow avalanches.

Creation of a system of comprehensive monitoring of the aquatic environment state of the black sea by its mathematical modeling

Modeling and forecasting of hydrodynamic processes in the Black Sea with high resolution are important for coastal and shelf zones, because of the biggest anthropogenic pressures. Here are the processes of distribution and transformation of pollutants that emerged in the sea in different ways, the transfer and sedimentation of solid river alluvium, lithodynamic and biochemical processes and more. The peculiarities of such processes are directly related to the dynamic processes that develop in coastal areas. Development of a regional operational system for forecasting the state of the Black Sea northwestern part has to be undoubtedly considered as a significant step forward for oceanography in this area. Creation of the integrated monitoring system of the Black Sea aquatic environment as well as its separate areas by means of mathematical modeling, in conjunction with further forecasting instruments meets the modern needs of society. It will help to prevent and respond in a timely manner to crises caused by natural and man-made risks. The created system will contribute to ensuring national security, improving the quality of life of people, the development of new knowledge-intensive industries.