Changes in the spatial vulnerability of the large cities population to natural and man-made hazards under the influence of housing construction

Abstract

The study purpose is to assess the degree of influence of the new large residential complexes commissioning on the main parameter of the spatial vulnerability of the Moscow population to natural and man-made hazards – its density. For this purpose, the key indicators of housing commissioning in Moscow for 2011-2021 were analyzed. The use of Big Data (data from mobile operators) made it possible to determine the actual change in population density for 2018-2019 on the largest possible scale – in cells of 500 by 500 m. The indicators of the present population density according to the mobile operators’ data on weekday winter nights in 2018 and 2019 were compared with indicators of growth in the housing stock for the considered period. The established dependence of these indicators can later be used to predict the intracity dynamics of the population in studies of natural and man-made risks, when longer time series of mobile operators’ data become available for Moscow. In addition, this study also considered the factors of increasing natural and man-made hazards in Moscow districts associated with housing construction. It was found that due to the limited free land resources for new construction on the territory of Old Moscow, most housing complexes are localized in areas of increased engineering-geological and technogenic danger. Additional risk factors are an increase in the number of storeys and building density. They are characterized by a steady positive trend over the period under review.