Man-made Risks Research Articles

How Can a Risk Be Increased? An Analysis of Risk Communication Channels

A risk is objective; however, its perception is subjective. This subjectivity is based on many factors (risk communication style, probability of the occurrence of risky events, etc.) with a relative stability and measurability. However, a gap exists between subjective perception and the objective risk. The psychometric paradigm proposed by Slovic is the most widely-used method to qualitatively analyze risk perception using psychometric scaling. It enables researchers to obtain dimensions that affect risk perception. Relevant researches in the field were all based on the paradigm. Findings showed that different sensory channels, information delivery channels, and types of environmental risks affected risk perception. Therefore, using the psychometric paradigm, this research aimed to explore the effects of risk communication styles and risk type on risk perception, and to determine the factors that cause individual perception to deviate from the actual situation. The participants were college students, with 178 participants in study 1 and 274 in study 2. The research combined an experimental design and a questionnaire survey, providing participants with actual environmental risk materials. The effects of different types of risks (man-made vs. natural) and image information (with vs. without pictures) were examined, with inputs from different sensory channels (in voice vs. in words) and information delivery channels on risk perception. ANOVA regression analysis with gender as the covariate and an independent sample t-test were used to analyze the data. The experimental design was used with the risk type and sensory channels as the within-subject variables and whether or not a picture was presented as the between-subject variable. Study 1 found that man-made risks aroused a higher level of risk perception than natural risks, and identical results were observed for the presentation of the image. However, the inputs from different sensory channels did not affect risk perception. In study 2, where real-life coverage of risk information by TV and Web pages were simulated, their effects on risk perception as compared with the risk type as the within-subject variable and the information delivery channel as the between-subject variable provided the result that a stronger risk perception was evoked by TV than by Web pages. The research, for the first time ever, combined a pure psychometric paradigm and actual environmental risk information. This offset the accompanying limitations when the psychometric paradigm was used alone to some extent, namely, the constraint in the participants' freedom to generate risk characteristics themselves and an excessive reliance upon the sample and the data derived from the result. The present study offers a deeper understanding of people's perception of the risks in real life and a better practical value in launching an effective risk communication strategy. Therefore, it is advisable to consider adopting this method in future researches. The results indicate that sensory channels did not influence risk perception. However, whether or not risk perception was affected by the presentation of a picture and the different information delivery channels has implications in actual risk communication situations. The concerned authority should resort to different and effective media through which the information conveyed is taken into account, in order to achieve the desired objective of their program in accordance with their highly specific goals.

Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

Abstract. Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM – Risk Map Germany – Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP) or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats) display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

Évaluation par les professionnels de santé du système d'information sur les risques de cancer liés à l'environnement

The increase in the number of cancers sprouting from man-made environmental risk factors calls for prevention policies strictly centered on the basis of a fact-sharing and transparent, evidence-based knowledge exchange. However, the related areas which are concerned are quite diverse, and given that the risks are of a cumulative nature, they are very difficult to measure. The information system therefore is complex and infinite. A qualitative study was carried out on the representations held by a variety of specialists who have potential links to the public or groups who might be exposed or at risk, including health professionals, engineers, and NGO and association managers and supervisors. The investigation was based upon a questionnaire which was developed with the assistance and participation of those involved in the management of information regarding professional, ecological or other kinds of risks. This method allowed for the study to favour and objectively prioritise the vision of the health professionals who were interviewed. The results show that the depictions vary depending on how and to what extent the different categories of professionals are involved, and that they reflect for the most part society's fears.

Are New World leishmaniases becoming anthroponoses?

In the New World, leishmaniases are originally wild exoanthropic zoonoses developing in sylvatic ecotopes. For a long time, Leishmania parasites have shown a remarkable plasticity to face modifications in their environment. Now, both geographical extension and numerical increase of leishmaniasis cases in the New World are giving cause for concern. These circumstances might have been provoked by the simple invasion of zoonotic foci by humans. However, dramatic evolutionary mechanisms are also at work in the New World: (i) the reduction of biodiversity associated with anthropogenic environmental changes (deforestation and urbanization); and (ii) the subsequent adaptations and interactions of new vectors and reservoir hosts at the interface with humans. This paper considers that these processes could result in new pathogenic complexes tending to synanthropic zoonoses, if not anthroponoses. Increasing man-made risk factors could thus possibly make leishmaniases a growing public health concern in the New World.

It's the end of the world as we know it

Presented in the style of an imaginary conversation between grandfather and grandchild, this critical reflection, will create a pragmatic view of the near future. This conversation will focus on examining how the increase in consumerism can lead to an environment which can no longer cope with the pressures of society’s demands as well as the role human nature has in creating its own manmade risks, which, evidently, may cause the destruction of the universe.

The risk of groundling fatalities from unintentional airplane crashes.

The crashes of four hijacked commercial planes on September 11, 2001, and the repeated televised images of the consequent collapse of the World Trade Center and one side of the Pentagon will inevitably change people's perceptions of the mortality risks to people on the ground from crashing airplanes. Goldstein and colleagues were the first to quantify the risk for Americans of being killed on the ground from a crashing airplane for unintentional events, providing average point estimates of 6 in a hundred million for annual risk and 4.2 in a million for lifetime risk. They noted that the lifetime risk result exceeded the commonly used risk management threshold of 1 in a million, and suggested that the risk to "groundlings" could be a useful risk communication tool because (a) it is a man-made risk (b) arising from economic activities (c) from which the victims derive no benefit and (d) exposure to which the victims cannot control. Their results have been used in risk communication. This analysis provides updated estimates of groundling fatality risks from unintentional crashes using more recent data and a geographical information system approach to modeling the population around airports. The results suggest that the average annual risk is now 1.2 in a hundred million and the lifetime risk is now 9 in ten million (below the risk management threshold). Analysis of the variability and uncertainty of this estimate, however, suggests that the exposure to groundling fatality risk varies by about a factor of approximately 100 in the spatial dimension of distance to an airport, with the risk declining rapidly outside the first 2 miles around an airport. We believe that the risk to groundlings from crashing airplanes is more useful in the context of risk communication when information about variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates is characterized, but we suspect that recent events will alter its utility in risk communication.

Land recovery and man-made risks: a perspective from the EU accession countries

This paper presents the results of a workshop held in Vienna in November 1998 to study the recovery of land in Easter European countries polluted by industrial spoil, military activities and improper handling of hazardous wastes, a topic which is of particular importance to these countries, emerging as they are from a period in which these topics received less attention than in the West. While the detailed situations vary from country to country among the EU candidate accession states, many of the underlying problems related to land recovery are common to all of them, and there is therefore great opportunity for mutual benefit by a meaningful exchange of information on problems, and methodologies to tackle them. The means of prioritising, monitoring and the remediation technologies are key issues in such an information network; however, without effective financing solutions, it seems very unlikely that these countries will be able to tackle their problems with contaminated land in an efficient and “sustainable” manner. The paper discusses the present situation in the first group of EU accession countries, describing the situation in the various countries and outlining the conclusions and recommendations of the workshop.

Risky business: challenges in vaccine risk communication.

* Abbreviations: AAP = : American Academy of Pediatrics • ACIP = : Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices • IPV = : inactivated polio vaccine • FDA = : Food and Drug Administration • DTwP = : diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and whole-cell pertussis vaccine • DTaP = : diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and acellular pertussis vaccine • DTP = : diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis vaccine • CDC = : Centers for Disease Control and Prevention • NCVIA = : National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act • VICP = : Vaccine Injury Compensation Program • IOM = : Institute of Medicine • OPV = : oral polio vaccine • VIS = : Vaccine Information Statements Concern over vaccine safety has been a major determinant of immunization policy—from passage of the Biologics Control Act in 1902 to the recent American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) and Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommendations for expanded use of inactivated polio (IPV) and acellular pertussis vaccines.1-4 With the availability of new vaccines and vaccination options comes the challenge of how best to communicate these options to patients and their parents. Lessons from the field of risk communication on predictors of risk acceptability and vaccination decision heuristics provide insight into why some parents resist vaccination. This article provides a historical perspective on vaccine adverse events and applies lessons from risk communication research to help physicians improve their ability to discuss vaccine risks. Immunizations have been described as the single most effective health intervention after clean water and sewage disposal,5 and have an extraordinary safety record. However, public policy has long reflected concern for the safety of vaccines and related biologics. In 1902, Congress passed the Biologics Control Act in response to the death of 13 children who had received injections of diphtheria antitoxin contaminated with tetanus toxin.6 This act required biologics to be manufactured in a manner that assured their safety, purity, and potency. Responsibility for these regulations was assigned originally to the Hygienic Laboratory of the Public Health Service, which evolved into the National Institutes of Health. The regulation of biologics including vaccines was transferred to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 1972. The first published accounts of serious adverse events after whole cell pertussis vaccine occurred in 1933 with Madsen's7 report of two deaths within 48 hours of immunization, and in 1948 with the report in Pediatrics by Byers and Moll8 of encephalopathy after diphtheria and tetanus toxoids combined with whole-cell pertussis …

Managers at Work: Confronting the Risks to Your Business

Whether the world is becoming more risky is open to disagreement. But the growing public concern about risks is beyond question. Surveys have repeatedly revealed increasing concern over natural and man-made risks to personal health and safety and to our collective well-being. As society becomes more complex and more networked in its relationships, it is likely that the number and kinds of risk will increase. More significantly, the likelihood of the manifestation of risks on a large scale will grow as systems expand and become more complex. This is already the case with brownouts as we inevitably experience imperfectly integrated grids. As we introduce new pharmaceuticals, and are increasingly able to detect side effects among users, risk factors grow in importance, as does the awareness of them. Indeed, at every scale of the human enterprise, risks are intrinsic, not accidental, to the systems involved. Even natural hazards present greater risks as we choose to live on the attractive terrain associated with floods, earthquakes, landslides, and storms. There are significant opportunities to reduce risks. But a too-limited perspective, in both time and space, in any future risk situation thwarts intelligent management and effective action. With the exception of regulatory requirements, which have grown steadily over the last several decades, there is little incentive in the market system to look ahead and anticipate risks; although liability is drawing businesses' attention ever more sharply to the implication of risk. Similarly, in terms of government action, whether legislative or executive, there is no incentive to look ahead at side effects that may incur risks, except in those areas where there is, by statute, a requirement such as the Environmental Impact Statements' requirement to show foresight. Even here, the issues are confounded by the overwhelming passion for detail and an often astigmatic focus on the limited questions. The statutory requirements for foresight lead to concentration on the tree while missing the forest. I propose a general risk analysis question that can become the starting framework for anyone--public or private, individual or group, corporate or public interest group, government agency or citizen-at-large--to quickly develop a comprehensive overview of any situation with regard to any risk they are concerned with. The generalized risk question, as I see it, is Who is at what kind of risk, when, where, with what effects, from what causes, with whom, responsible (for), by what instruments, in what value context, at what costs and benefits for its management? Being able to answer this complex question puts one in a great starting position to think ahead intelligently. Let me suggest that breaking the complex question into individual clauses offers further insight into the risks. …

Cognitive components in risk perception: Natural versus manmade risks

AbstractIn a questionnaire study 106 Norwegian students rated natural and manmade hazards according to risk magnitude and public versus private responsibility for risk management. Another group of 50 subjects judged 36 natural hazards on nine risk dimensions used in previous psychometric studies of ‘manmade risks’. When ratings on nine risk characteristics for natural hazards were factor analyzed a three‐dimensional solution was found, with one active/passive dimension, one potency dimension, and one novelty dimension. This contrasts with the two‐dimensional solution found for manmade hazards. Responsibility for risk management was found to be related to the type of risk in focus, and different risk characteristics seem to play different roles for manmade and natural hazards.

Computer risk management

Our perception is risk shaped along traditional lines. For most of us, the risks that can relate to are those that have been with us for many years: fire, flood, accidental damage, theft, fraud and embezzelement. The development of computer technology has introduced a new range of risks, and a new set of vulnerabilities. The value of the hardware is now immaterial compared with the potential costs that could arise out of it's failure or misuse. Of equal Importance to the natural perils are the man-made risks, whether they be maliciously or accidentally motivated. Our priorities have been slow to reflect these changes. Insurance covers, risk management thinking and management strategy invariable reflect the computer technology of the 1970's. To explore this further I will examine the implications for computer crime risks of the development of computer technology and its application. I will review some of the new types of losses being experienced, and draw conclusions on the risk characteristics of the new technology.

Computer crime

Our perception is risk shaped along traditional lines. For most of us, the risks that can relate to are those that have been with us for many years: fire, flood, accidental damage, theft, fraud and embezzelement.The development of computer technology has introduced a new range of risks, and a new set of vulnerabilities. The value of the hardware is now immaterial compared with the potential costs that could arise out of it's failure or misuse. Of equal Importance to the natural perils are the man-made risks, whether they be maliciously or accidentally motivated. Our priorities have been slow to reflect these changes. Insurance covers, risk management thinking and management strategy invariable reflect the computer technology of the 1970's.To explore this further I will examine the implications for computer crime risks of the development of computer technology and its application. I will review some of the new types of losses being experienced, and draw conclusions on the risk characteristics of the new technology.

Risikoermittlung und Sicherheitsanalysen in der chemischen Technik

AbstractRisk assessment and safety analysis in chemical engineering. There are in principle two possible ways of assessing the risks originating from industrial plants: the empirical method, which tries to directly evaluate experience from actual hazards and their consequences in the past, and the theoretical‐analytical method, which – in so called risk analyses – uses extensive model calculations to deduce risk values from the interrelationship between minor disturbances and major hazards and their possible consequences. It is shown that in the chemical industry reliable results can only be expected from the empirical method, since indispensable prior conditions for the application of risk analysis methods are not given in operating chemical plants. Because of the considerable degree of uncertainty, theoretically assessed values for risk should not – in the chemical industry – be used for decisions. Empirical risk assessment on the other hand is reliable and makes it clear that the risk from chemical activities is fairly low as compared to other natural and manmade risks for both employees of chemical industries and people living near industrial sites. This is, no doubt, the clear result of the consequent use of hazard and safety analysis methods during the planning and development of chemical plant.