Malaria Transmission Dynamics Research Articles

Understanding the effects of individual awareness and vector controls on malaria transmission dynamics using multiple optimal control

Malaria is a vector-borne diseases caused by parasite of genus Plasmodium and is transmitted via a bite of mosquitoes. Although the number of malaria cases has been reduced, an outbreak still happens, which causes deaths particularly in children. In this paper, mathematical models in the absence and presence of awareness programs and vector controls have been formulated and studied. The qualitative analysis of the model has been conducted. A global sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to determine the most influential parameters on the increasing number of infected individuals and the reproduction number. An optimal control approach has been used to analyse the effects of control strategies and the model is fitted to data of malaria cases from Weeluri Health Center, Central Sumba, Indonesia. Qualitative analysis of the model showed that the disease-free and endemic equilibrium are globally stable. Furthermore, the reproduction number for malaria is found to be R0=1.1199. Results from global sensitivity analyses showed that the biting rate, the transmission probability from mosquitoes to human, and human to mosquitoes, and the number of mosquitoes per human are the most influential parameters, which indicate the importance of reducing the contact between human and mosquitoes. This suggests the awareness of individuals to take the prevention actions hold an important role for reducing the contact with mosquitoes. Furthermore, using the Pontryagin maximum principle, we found that the awareness programs and vector control should be implemented at a higher level and the vector controls need to be applied for the entire period to obtain the reduction in the number of infected individuals at the minimum costs. Interestingly, in the absence of vector control programs, it is still possible to reduce the number of malaria cases when the awareness programs have been implemented and aware individuals are willing to take the prevention actions.

Assessing Anopheles vector species diversity and transmission of malaria in four health districts along the borders of C\xf4te d\u2019Ivoire

BackgroundAlthough malaria and Anopheles mosquito vectors are highly prevalent in Côte d’Ivoire, limited data are available to help understand the malaria vector density and transmission dynamics in areas bordering the country. To address this gap, the Anopheles mosquito species diversity, the members of the Anopheles gambiae complex and the transmission of malaria were assessed in four health districts along the borders of Côte d’Ivoire.MethodsFrom July 2016 through December 2016 and July 2017 through December 2017, adult Anopheles mosquitoes were collected in four health districts of Côte d’Ivoire (Aboisso, Bloléquin, Odienné and Ouangolodougou) using standardized window exit trap (WET) and pyrethrum knockdown spray collection (PSC) methods. The collected mosquitoes were identified morphologically at species level and the members of the An. gambiae complex were separated using short interspersed nuclear element-based polymerase chain reaction (SINE-PCR). Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.), Anopheles funestus s.l. and Anopheles nili specimens were analysed for malaria Plasmodium parasite detection using the cytochrome oxidase I gene (COX-I), and malaria prevalence among human population through local Ministry of Health (MoH) statistical yearbooks.ResultsA total of 281 female Anopheles were collected in Aboisso, 754 in Bloléquin, 1319 in Odienné and 2443 in Ouangolodougou. Seven Anopheles species were recorded including An. gambiae s.l. (94.8–99.1%) as the main vector, followed by An. funestus s.l. (0.4–4.3%) and An. nili (0–0.7%). Among An. gambiae s.l., Anopheles coluzzii represented the predominant species in Aboisso (89.2%) and Bloléquin (92.2%), while An. gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) was the major species in Odienné (96.0%) and Ouangolodougou (94.2%). The Plasmodium sporozoite infection rate in An. gambiae s.l. was highest in Odienné (11.0%; n = 100) followed by Bloléquin (7.8%, n = 115), Aboisso (3.1%; n = 65) and Ouangologoudou (2.5%; n = 120). In An. funestus s.l., Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite infection rate was estimated at 6.2% (n = 32) in Bloléquin, 8.7% (n = 23) in Odienné. No An. funestus s.l. specimens were found infected with P. falciparum sporozoite infection in Ouangolodougou and Aboisso. No P. falciparum sporozoite was detected in An. nili specimens in the four health districts. Among the local human populations, malaria incidence was higher in Odienné (39.7%; n = 45,376) and Bloléquin (37.6%; n = 150,205) compared to that in Ouangolodougou (18.3%; n = 131,629) and Aboisso (19.7%; n = 364,585).ConclusionAnopheles vector species diversity, abundance and Plasmodium sporozoite infection were high within the health districts along the borders of the country of Côte d’Ivoire, resulting in high malaria transmission among the local populations. Anopheles gambiae s.l. and An. funestus s.l. were found to be highly infected with Plasmodium in the health districts of Bloléquin and Odienné where higher malaria incidence was observed than the other districts. This study provides important information that can be used to guide Côte d’Ivoire National Malaria Control Programme for vector control decision-making, mainly in districts that are at the country borders.

Spatial Distribution of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in Northern Ethiopia by Microscopic, Rapid Diagnostic Test, Laboratory Antibody, and Antigen Data.

Determining malaria transmission within regions of low, heterogenous prevalence is difficult. A variety of malaria tests exist and range from identification of diagnostic infection to testing for prior exposure. This study describes the concordance of multiple malaria tests using data from a 2015 household survey conducted in Ethiopia. Blood samples (n=2279) from 3 regions in northern Ethiopia were assessed for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax by means of microscopy, rapid diagnostic test, multiplex antigen assay, and multiplex assay for immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies. Geospatial analysis was conducted with spatial scan statistics and kernel density estimation to identify malaria hot spots by different test results. The prevalence of malaria infection was low (1.4% by rapid diagnostic test, 1.0% by microscopy, and 1.8% by laboratory antigen assay). For P. falciparum, overlapping spatial clusters for all tests and an additional 5 unique IgG clusters were identified. For P. vivax, clusters identified with bead antigen assay, microscopy, and IgG partially overlapped. Assessing the spatial distribution of malaria exposure using multiple metrics can improve the understanding of malaria transmission dynamics in a region. The relative abundance of antibody clusters indicates that in areas of low transmission, IgG antibodies are a more useful marker to assess malaria exposure.

Modelling and analysis of human–mosquito malaria transmission dynamics in Bangladesh

Malaria, a parasite based infectious disease spread by anopheles mosquitos, is widespread, affecting people of all ages. Malaria blood-borne pathogens cause approximately 110 million clinical cases of malaria and between one and two million deaths associated with Plasmodium falciparum each year worldwide, including Bangladesh. In this paper, we develop a human–mosquito transmission dynamics malaria model and analyse of the system properties and solutions. Both analytical and numerical results suggest that if the basic reproduction number R0<1, the disease-free equilibrium is asymptotically stable, meaning malaria naturally dies out. Further, if R0>1, the malaria disease persists in the population. We also provide the model calibration to estimate parameters with year-wise malaria incidence data from 2001 to 2014 in Bangladesh. Sensitivity analysis also performs to identify the most critical parameters through the partial rank correlation coefficient method. We found that the contact rate of both humans and mosquitoes had the most extensive influence on malaria prevalence. Finally, the impacts of progression rate, disease-related death rate, recovery rate and the rate of losing immunity are examined through numerical simulations and graphical analysis.

Malaria Transmission, Vector Diversity, and Insecticide Resistance at a Peri-Urban Site in the Forest Zone of Ghana

IntroductionRecent surge ofAnophelesresistance to major classes of World Health Organization (WHO)-approved insecticides globally necessitates the need for information about local malaria vector populations. It is believed that insecticide efficacy loss may lead to operational failure of control interventions and an increase in malaria infection transmission. We investigated the susceptibility levels of malaria vectors to all classes of WHO-approved vector control insecticides and described the dynamics of malaria transmission in a peri-urban setting.MethodsFit 3–5-day-old adults that emerged fromAnopheleslarvae collected from several different sites in the study area were subjected to the WHO bioassay for detecting insecticide resistance. The knockdown resistance gene (kdr) mutations within the vector populations were detected using PCR. Entomological inoculation rates were determined using the human landing catch technique andPlasmodium falciparumcircumsporozoite ELISA.ResultsThe malaria vectors from the study area were resistant to all classes of insecticides tested. Out of the 284Anophelescomplex specimen assayed for the resistance study, 265 (93.30%) were identified asAnopheles gambiae s.s.The kdr gene was detected in 90% of theAnopheles gambiae s.s.assayed. In an area whereAnopheles coluzziiresistance to insecticides had never been reported, the kdr gene was detected in 78% of theAnopheles coluzziisampled. The entomological inoculation rate (EIR) for the dry season was 1.44 ib/m/n, whereas the EIR for the rainy season was 2.69 ib/m/n.ConclusionsThis study provides information on the high parasite inoculation rate and insecticide resistance of malaria vectors in a peri-urban community, which is critical in the development of an insecticide resistance management program for the community.

Mathematical modeling of the impact of temperature variations and immigration on malaria prevalence in Nigeria

The study examines the population-level impact of temperature variability and immigration on malaria prevalence in Nigeria, using a novel deterministic model. The model incorporates disease transmission by immigrants into the community. In the absence of immigration, the model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. The disease-free equilibrium of the autonomous version of the model was found to be locally asymptotically stable in the absence of infective immigrants. However, the model exhibits an endemic equilibrium point when the immigration parameter is greater than zero. The endemic equilibrium point is seen to be globally asymptotically stable in the absence of disease-induced mortality. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the model, using parameter values and ranges relevant to malaria transmission dynamics in Nigeria, shows that the top three parameters that drive malaria prevalence (with respect to [Formula: see text]) are the mosquito natural death rate ([Formula: see text]), mosquito biting rate ([Formula: see text]) and the transmission rates between humans and mosquitoes ([Formula: see text]). Numerical simulations of the model show that in Nigeria, malaria burden increases with increasing mean monthly temperature in the range of 22–28[Formula: see text]. Thus, this study suggests that control strategies for malaria should be intensified during this period. It is further shown that the proportion of infective immigrants has marginal effect on the transmission dynamics of the disease. Therefore, the simulations suggest that a reduction in the fraction of infective immigrants, either exposed or infectious, would significantly reduce the malaria incidence in a population.

Elucidating relationships between P.falciparum prevalence and measures of genetic diversity with a combined genetic-epidemiological model of malaria.

There is an abundance of malaria genetic data being collected from the field, yet using these data to understand the drivers of regional epidemiology remains a challenge. A key issue is the lack of models that relate parasite genetic diversity to epidemiological parameters. Classical models in population genetics characterize changes in genetic diversity in relation to demographic parameters, but fail to account for the unique features of the malaria life cycle. In contrast, epidemiological models, such as the Ross-Macdonald model, capture malaria transmission dynamics but do not consider genetics. Here, we have developed an integrated model encompassing both parasite evolution and regional epidemiology. We achieve this by combining the Ross-Macdonald model with an intra-host continuous-time Moran model, thus explicitly representing the evolution of individual parasite genomes in a traditional epidemiological framework. Implemented as a stochastic simulation, we use the model to explore relationships between measures of parasite genetic diversity and parasite prevalence, a widely-used metric of transmission intensity. First, we explore how varying parasite prevalence influences genetic diversity at equilibrium. We find that multiple genetic diversity statistics are correlated with prevalence, but the strength of the relationships depends on whether variation in prevalence is driven by host- or vector-related factors. Next, we assess the responsiveness of a variety of statistics to malaria control interventions, finding that those related to mixed infections respond quickly (∼months) whereas other statistics, such as nucleotide diversity, may take decades to respond. These findings provide insights into the opportunities and challenges associated with using genetic data to monitor malaria epidemiology.

An Age-Structured Model for Transmission Dynamics of Malaria with Infected Immigrants and Asymptomatic Carriers

An age-structured (children and adults) model for the transmission dynamics of malaria with asymptomatic carriers and infected immigrants has been analyzed. We first analyze a model without infected immigrants. It shows that the disease-free equilibrium exists and is stable when and unstable for . Also, we compute the sensitivity indices of the basic reproduction number. The basic reproduction number is most sensitive to the mosquito biting rate. Besides, the sensitivity of the basic reproduction number shows that the children's class parameters are more sensitive than those of adults. In the presence of infected immigrants, the model does not admit a disease-free equilibrium. The sensitivity of endemic equilibrium shows that the asymptomatic carrier parameters are more critical than that of infected immigrants. Also, the inflow of infectious immigrants is sensitive than that of infected immigrants. The results obtained indicate that strategies that target asymptomatic carriers and infected immigrants can help control malaria.&#x0D; Keywords: Age-structure; malaria; immigrants; asymptomatic carrier; nonlinear ODE model

Control measures of malaria transmission in Rwanda based on SEIR SEI mathematical model

This research paper investigated the dynamics of malaria transmission in Rwanda using the nonlinear forces of infections which are included in SEIR-SEI mathematical model for human and mosquito populations. The mathematical modeling of malaria studies the interaction among the human and mosquito populations in controlling malaria transmission and eventually eliminating malaria infection. This work investigates the optimal control strategies for minimizing the rate of malaria transmission by applying three control variables through Caputo fractional derivative. The optimal control problems for malaria model found the control parameters which minimize infection. The numerical simulation showed that the number of exposed and infected people and mosquito population are decreased due to the control strategies. Finally, this work found out that the transmission of malaria in Rwanda can be minimized by using the combination of controls like Insecticide Treated bed Nets (ITNs), Indoor Residual Spray (IRS) and Artemisinin based Combination Therapies (ACTs).

An increasing role of pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles funestus in malaria transmission in the Lake Zone, Tanzania

Anopheles funestus is playing an increasing role in malaria transmission in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, where An. gambiae s.s. has been effectively controlled by long-lasting insecticidal nets. We investigated vector population bionomics, insecticide resistance and malaria transmission dynamics in 86 study clusters in North-West Tanzania. An. funestus s.l. represented 94.5% (4740/5016) of all vectors and was responsible for the majority of malaria transmission (96.5%), with a sporozoite rate of 3.4% and average monthly entomological inoculation rate (EIR) of 4.57 per house. Micro-geographical heterogeneity in species composition, abundance and transmission was observed across the study district in relation to key ecological differences between northern and southern clusters, with significantly higher densities, proportions and EIR of An. funestus s.l. collected from the South. An. gambiae s.l. (5.5%) density, principally An. arabiensis (81.1%) and An. gambiae s.s. (18.9%), was much lower and closely correlated with seasonal rainfall. Both An. funestus s.l. and An. gambiae s.l. were similarly resistant to alpha-cypermethrin and permethrin. Overexpression of CYP9K1, CYP6P3, CYP6P4 and CYP6M2 and high L1014S-kdr mutation frequency were detected in An. gambiae s.s. populations. Study findings highlight the urgent need for novel vector control tools to tackle persistent malaria transmission in the Lake Region of Tanzania.

Updating the bionomy and geographical distribution of Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) albitarsis F: A vector of malaria parasites in northern South America.

Anopheles albitarsis F is a putative species belonging to the Albitarsis Complex, recognized by rDNA, mtDNA, partial white gene, and microsatellites sequences. It has been reported from the island of Trinidad, Venezuela and Colombia, and incriminated as a vector of malaria parasites in the latter. This study examined mitochondrially encoded cytochrome c oxidase I (MT-CO1) sequences of An. albitarsis F from malaria-endemic areas in Colombia and Venezuela to understand its relations with other members of the Complex, revised and update the geographical distribution and bionomics of An. albitarsis F and explore hypotheses to explain its phylogenetic relationships and geographical expansion. Forty-five MT-CO1 sequences obtained in this study were analyzed to estimate genetic diversity and possible evolutionary relationships. Sequences generated 37 haplotypes clustered in a group where the genetic divergence of Venezuelan populations did not exceed 1.6% with respect to Colombian samples. Anopheles albitarsis F (π = 0.013) represented the most recent cluster located closer to An. albitarsis I (π = 0.009). Barcode gap was detected according to Albitarsis Complex lineages previously reported (threshold 0.014–0.021). Anopheles albitarsis F has a wide distribution in northern South America and might play an important role in the transmission dynamics of malaria due to its high expansion capacity. Future studies are required to establish the southern distribution of An. albitarsis F in Venezuela, and its occurrence in Guyana and Ecuador.

Comparison of four outdoor mosquito trapping methods as potential replacements for human landing catches in western Kenya

IntroductionLongitudinal monitoring of outdoor-biting malaria vector populations is becoming increasingly important in understanding the dynamics of residual malaria transmission. However, the human landing catch (HLC), the gold standard for measuring human biting rates indoors and outdoors, is costly and raises ethical concerns related to increased risk of infectious bites among collectors. Consequently, routine data on outdoor-feeding mosquito populations are usually limited because of the lack of a scalable tool with similar sensitivity to outdoor HLC.MethodologyThe Anopheles trapping sensitivity of four baited proxy outdoor trapping methods—Furvela tent trap (FTT), host decoy trap (HDT), mosquito electrocuting traps (MET) and outdoor CDC light traps (OLT)—was assessed relative to HLC in a 5 × 5 replicated Latin square conducted over 25 nights in two villages of western Kenya. Indoor CDC light trap (ILT) was run in one house in each of the compounds with outdoor traps, while additional non-Latin square indoor and outdoor HLC collections were performed in one of the study villages.ResultsThe MET, FTT, HDT and OLT sampled approximately 4.67, 7.58, 5.69 and 1.98 times more An. arabiensis compared to HLC, respectively, in Kakola Ombaka. Only FTT was more sensitive relative to HLC in sampling An. funestus in Kakola Ombaka (RR = 5.59, 95% CI 2.49–12.55, P < 0.001) and Masogo (RR = 4.38, 95% CI 1.62–11.80, P = 0.004) and in sampling An. arabiensis in Masogo (RR = 5.37, 95% CI 2.17–13.24, P < 0.001). OLT sampled significantly higher numbers of An. coustani in Kakola Ombaka (RR = 3.03, 95% CI 1.65–5.56, P < 0.001) and Masogo (RR = 2.88, 95% CI 1.15–7.22, P = 0.02) compared to HLC. OLT, HLC and MET sampled mostly An. coustani, FTT had similar proportions of An. funestus and An. arabiensis, while HDT sampled predominantly An. arabiensis in both villages. FTT showed close correlation with ILT in vector abundance for all three species at both collection sites.ConclusionFTT and OLT are simple, easily scalable traps and are potential replacements for HLC in outdoor sampling of Anopheles mosquitoes. However, the FTT closely mirrored indoor CDC light trap in mosquito indices and therefore may be more of an indoor mimic than a true outdoor collection tool. HDT and MET show potential for sampling outdoor host-seeking mosquitoes. However, the traps as currently designed may not be feasible for large-scale, longitudinal entomological monitoring. Therefore, the baited outdoor CDC light trap may be the most appropriate tool currently available for assessment of outdoor-biting and malaria transmission risk.Graphic abstract

Analysis of Control Interventions against Malaria in communities with Limited Resources

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential impact of multiple current interventions in communities with limited resources in order to obtain optimal control strategies and provide a basis for future predictions of the most effective control measures against the spread of malaria. We developed a population-based model of malaria transmission dynamics to investigate the effectiveness of five different interventions. The model captured both the human and the mosquito compartments. The control interventions considered were: educational campaigns to mobilise people for diagnostic test and treatment and to sleep under bed nets; treatment through mass drug administration; indoor residual spraying(IRS) with insecticide to reduce malaria transmission; insecticide treated net (ITN) to reduce morbidity; and regular destruction of mosquito breeding sites to reduce the number of new mosquito and bites/contact at dusks and dawn. Analysis of the potential impact of the multiple control interventions were carried out and the optimal control strategies that minimized the number of infected human and mosquito and the cost of applying the various control interventions were determined.

Differential drivers of intraspecific and interspecific competition during malaria-helminth co-infection.

Various host and parasite factors interact to determine the outcome of infection. We investigated the effects of two factors on the within-host dynamics of malaria in mice: initial infectious dose and co-infection with a helminth that limits the availability of red blood cells (RBCs). Using a statistical, time-series approach to model the within-host ‘epidemiology’ of malaria, we found that increasing initial dose reduced the time to peak cell-to-cell parasite propagation, but also reduced its magnitude, while helminth co-infection delayed peak cell-to-cell propagation, except at the highest malaria doses. Using a mechanistic model of within-host infection dynamics, we identified dose-dependence in parameters describing host responses to malaria infection and uncovered a plausible explanation of the observed differences in single vs co-infections. Specifically, in co-infections, our model predicted a higher background death rate of RBCs. However, at the highest dose, when intraspecific competition between malaria parasites would be highest, these effects of co-infection were not observed. Such interactions between initial dose and co-infection, although difficult to predict a priori, are key to understanding variation in the severity of disease experienced by hosts and could inform studies of malaria transmission dynamics in nature, where co-infection and low doses are the norm.

Natural malaria infection in anophelines vectors and their incrimination in local malaria transmission in Darién, Panama.

BackgroundMore than 85% of the malaria cases in Panama occur in poor, rural and indigenous regions like Darien Province. Vector diversity, infection rate and spatial distribution are important entomological parameters of malaria transmission dynamics. Their understanding is crucial for the development of effective disease control strategies. The objective of this study was to determine the composition of Anopheles species, their natural infection rate and their geographic distribution to better understand the malaria transmission dynamics in Darién, Panama.MethodsAnophelines mosquitoes were captured during the rainy and dry season of 2016. We selected five communities where adult anophelines were collected using CDC light-traps, and through protective human-baited traps. Detection of natural infection and Plasmodium genotype were detected via nested PCR through the amplification of ssrRNA and the circumsporozoite protein gene (csp), respectively.ResultsA total of 1,063 mosquitoes were collected mosquitoes were collected for the detection of natural infection with Plasmodium spp. Nine Anophelines species were identified, with the predominant species being: An. (Nys.) darlingi (45.0%) and An. (Nys.) albimanus (42.6%). Natural infection in An. (Nys.) albimanus with P. vivax was detected in one mosquito pool from the community Pueblo Tortuga (0.6%), three from Marraganti (1.7%), two from Bajo Chiquito (1.1%) and three pools from Alto Playona 3 (1.7%). For An. (Nys.) darlingi mosquitoes, we detected seven positive pools from the community Bajo Chiquito (4.0%), two pools from Marraganti (1.1%) and two pools from Alto Playona (1.1%). The P. vivax allelic variant VK210 was detected in infected mosquitoes.ConclusionThe results from this study provide new information on the transmission dynamics associated with anophelines vectors in the Darién region. This is the first report of natural P. vivax infection in An. (Nys.) darlingi and its incrimination as a potential malaria vector in this region of Panama. Additional studies are necessary to expand our knowledge and determine crucial parameters in malaria transmission in Darién, which in turn will aid the National Malaria Program in attaining an adequate malaria control strategy towards malaria elimination.

Integrating Parasitological and Entomological Observations to Understand Malaria Transmission in Riverine Villages in the Peruvian Amazon.

BackgroundRemote rural riverine villages account for most of the reported malaria cases in the Peruvian Amazon. As transmission decreases due to intensive standard control efforts, malaria strategies in these villages will need to be more focused and adapted to local epidemiology.MethodsBy integrating parasitological, entomological, and environmental observations between January 2016 and June 2017, we provided an in-depth characterization of malaria transmission dynamics in 4 riverine villages of the Mazan district, Loreto department.ResultsDespite variation across villages, malaria prevalence by polymerase chain reaction in March 2016 was high (>25% in 3 villages), caused by Plasmodium vivax mainly and composed of mostly submicroscopic infections. Housing without complete walls was the main malaria risk factor, while households close to forest edges were more commonly identified as spatial clusters of malaria prevalence. Villages in the basin of the Mazan River had a higher density of adult Anopheles darlingi mosquitoes, and retained higher prevalence and incidence rates compared to villages in the basin of the Napo River despite test-and-treat interventions.ConclusionsHigh heterogeneity in malaria transmission was found across and within riverine villages, resulting from interactions between the microgeographic landscape driving diverse conditions for vector development, housing structure, and human behavior.

Agent-based modelling of complex factors impacting malaria prevalence

BackgroundIncreasingly complex models have been developed to characterize the transmission dynamics of malaria. The multiplicity of malaria transmission factors calls for a realistic modelling approach that incorporates various complex factors such as the effect of control measures, behavioural impacts of the parasites to the vector, or socio-economic variables. Indeed, the crucial impact of household size in eliminating malaria has been emphasized in previous studies. However, increasing complexity also increases the difficulty of calibrating model parameters. Moreover, despite the availability of much field data, a common pitfall in malaria transmission modelling is to obtain data that could be directly used for model calibration.MethodsIn this work, an approach that provides a way to combine in situ field data with the parameters of malaria transmission models is presented. This is achieved by agent-based stochastic simulations, initially calibrated with hut-level experimental data. The simulation results provide synthetic data for regression analysis that enable the calibration of key parameters of classical models, such as biting rates and vector mortality. In lieu of developing complex dynamical models, the approach is demonstrated using most classical malaria models, but with the model parameters calibrated to account for such complex factors. The performance of the approach is tested against a wide range of field data for Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) values.ResultsThe overall transmission characteristics can be estimated by including various features that impact EIR and malaria incidence, for instance by reducing the mosquito–human contact rates and increasing the mortality through control measures or socio-economic factors.ConclusionComplex phenomena such as the impact of the coverage of the population with long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), changes in behaviour of the infected vector and the impact of socio-economic factors can be included in continuous level modelling. Though the present work should be interpreted as a proof of concept, based on one set of field data only, certain interesting conclusions can already be drawn. While the present work focuses on malaria, the computational approach is generic, and can be applied to other cases where suitable in situ data is available.

New vectors that are early feeders for Plasmodium knowlesi and other simian malaria parasites in Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo

Plasmodium knowlesi is the main cause of malaria in Sarawak, where studies on vectors of P. knowlesi have been conducted in only two districts. Anopheles balabacensis and An. donaldi were incriminated as vectors in Lawas and An. latens in Kapit. We studied a third location in Sarawak, Betong, where of 2169 mosquitoes collected over 36 days using human-landing catches, 169 (7.8%) were Anopheles spp. PCR and phylogenetic analyses identified P. knowlesi and/or P. cynomolgi, P. fieldi, P. inui, P. coatneyi and possibly novel Plasmodium spp. in salivary glands of An. latens and An. introlatus from the Leucosphyrus Group and in An. collessi and An. roperi from the Umbrosus Group. Phylogenetic analyses of cytochrome oxidase subunit I sequences indicated three P. knowlesi-positive An. introlatus had been misidentified morphologically as An. latens, while An. collessi and An. roperi could not be delineated using the region sequenced. Almost all vectors from the Leucosphyrus Group were biting after 1800 h but those belonging to the Umbrosus Group were also biting between 0700 and 1100 h. Our study incriminated new vectors of knowlesi malaria in Sarawak and underscores the importance of including entomological studies during the daytime to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the transmission dynamics of malaria.

Evaluation of Mosquito Magnet and other collection tools for Anopheles mosquito vectors of simian malaria

BackgroundVector surveillance is essential in determining the geographical distribution of mosquito vectors and understanding the dynamics of malaria transmission. With the elimination of human malaria cases, knowlesi malaria cases in humans are increasing in Malaysia. This necessitates intensive vector studies using safer trapping methods which are both field efficient and able to attract the local vector populations. Thus, this study evaluated the potential of Mosquito Magnet as a collection tool for Anopheles mosquito vectors of simian malaria along with other known collection methods.MethodsA randomized 4 × 4 Latin square designed experiment was conducted to compare the efficiency of the Mosquito Magnet against three other common trapping methods: human landing catch (HLC), CDC light trap and human baited trap (HBT). The experiment was conducted over six replicates where sampling within each replicate was carried out for 4 consecutive nights. An additional 4 nights of sampling was used to further evaluate the Mosquito Magnet against the “gold standard” HLC. The abundance of Anopheles sampled by different methods was compared and evaluated with focus on the Anopheles from the Leucosphyrus group, the vectors of knowlesi malaria.ResultsThe Latin square designed experiment showed HLC caught the greatest number of Anopheles mosquitoes (n = 321) compared to the HBT (n = 87), Mosquito Magnet (n = 58) and CDC light trap (n = 13). The GLMM analysis showed that the HLC method caught significantly more Anopheles mosquitoes compared to Mosquito Magnet (P = 0.049). However, there was no significant difference in mean nightly catch of Anopheles mosquitoes between Mosquito Magnet and the other two trapping methods, HBT (P = 0.646) and CDC light traps (P = 0.197). The mean nightly catch for both An. introlatus (9.33 ± 4.341) and An. cracens (4.00 ± 2.273) caught using HLC was higher than that of Mosquito Magnet, though the differences were not statistically significant (P > 0.05). This is in contrast to the mean nightly catch of An. sinensis (15.75 ± 5.640) and An. maculatus (15.78 ± 3.479) where HLC showed significantly more mosquito catches compared to Mosquito Magnet (P < 0.05).ConclusionsMosquito Magnet has a promising ability to catch An. introlatus and An. cracens, the important vectors of knowlesi and other simian malarias in Peninsular Malaysia. The ability of Mosquito Magnet to catch some of the Anopheles mosquito species is comparable to HLC and makes it an ethical and safer alternative.Graphical

Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia

BackgroundClimate and environmental factors could be one of the primary factors that drive malaria transmission and it remains to challenge the malaria elimination efforts. Hence, this study was aimed to evaluate the effects of meteorological factors and topography on the incidence of malaria in the Boricha district in Sidama regional state of Ethiopia.MethodsMalaria morbidity data recorded from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from all public health facilities of Boricha District in the Sidama regional state of Ethiopia. The monthly malaria cases, rainfall, and temperature (minimum, maximum, and average) were used to fit the ARIMA model to compute the malaria transmission dynamics and also to forecast future incidence. The effects of the meteorological variables and altitude were assessed with a negative binomial regression model using R version 4.0.0. Cross-correlation analysis was employed to compute the delayed effects of meteorological variables on malaria incidence.ResultsTemperature, rainfall, and elevation were the major determinants of malaria incidence in the study area. A regression model of previous monthly rainfall at lag 0 and Lag 2, monthly mean maximum temperature at lag 2 and Lag 3, and monthly mean minimum temperature at lag 3 were found as the best prediction model for monthly malaria incidence. Malaria cases at 1801–1900 m above sea level were 1.48 times more likely to occur than elevation ≥ 2000 m.ConclusionsMeteorological factors and altitude were the major drivers of malaria incidence in the study area. Thus, evidence-based interventions tailored to each determinant are required to achieve the malaria elimination target of the country.