Malaria Indicator Survey Research Articles

Spatiotemporal analysis of insecticide-treated net use for children under 5 in relation to socioeconomic gradients in Central and East Africa

BackgroundInsecticide-treated net (ITN) use is the core intervention among the strategies against malaria in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the percentage of ITN ownership has increased from 47% in 2010 to 72% in 2017 across countries in SSA. Regardless of this massive expansion of ITN distribution, considerable gap between ownership and use of ITNs has been reported. Using data from more than 100,000 households in Central and East Africa (CEA) countries, the main aim of this study was to identify barriers associated with low ITN use and conduct geospatial analyses to estimate numbers and locations of vulnerable children living in areas with high malaria and low ITN use.MethodsMain sources of data for this study were the Demographic and Health Surveys and Malaria Indicator Surveys conducted in 11 countries in CEA. Logistic regression models for each country were built to assess the association between ITN ownership or ITN use and several socioeconomic and demographic variables. A density map of children under 5 living in areas at high-risk of malaria and low ITN use was generated to estimate the number of children who are living in these high malaria burden areas.ResultsResults obtained suggest that factors such as the number of members in the household, total number of children in the household, education and place of residence can be key factors linked to the use of ITN for protecting children against malaria in CEA. Results from the spatiotemporal analyses found that although total rates of ownership and use of ITNs across CEA have increased up to 70% and 48%, respectively, a large proportion of children under 5 (19,780,678; 23% of total number of children) still lives in high-risk malaria areas with low use of ITNs.ConclusionThe results indicate that despite substantial progress in the distribution of ITNs in CEA, with about 70% of the households having an ITN, several socioeconomic factors have compromised the effectiveness of this control intervention against malaria, and only about 48% of the households protect their children under 5 with ITNs. Increasing the effective ITN use by targeting these factors and the areas where vulnerable children reside can be a core strategy meant to reducing malaria transmission.

Individual and contextual correlates of mosquito net use among women in Nigeria

BackgroundMalaria has been described as an urgent public health priority with almost half of the world’s population being at risk. Use of insecticide-treated nets is considered one of the effective ways of preventing malaria. Nigeria, which is ranked among the five countries that are responsible for almost half of the global malaria cases, has less than half of its women population using mosquito nets. This study examined the effects of individual and contextual factors on the use of mosquito nets among women of reproductive age in Nigeria.MethodsThis study used data obtained from 2015 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey (NMIS) which involved 6048 women aged 15–49 who possessed at least one mosquito net. Multilevel binary logistic regression models were applied in the multivariable analysis.ResultsAbout 53% of the women used mosquito nets with more than 60% of uneducated and poor women in this category. The use of mosquito nets was significantly associated with being from poor households, having knowledge about the cause of malaria, having access to malaria messages, possessing knowledge about the efficacy of malaria prevention drugs during pregnancy, having knowledge about the importance of tests to detect malaria, maintaining small household size and living in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged communities and states.ConclusionsThe study revealed that mosquito net use among women in Nigeria is affected by individual and contextual factors. It is important for policy makers to design a mosquito-net-use model which would take individual and contextual factors into consideration.

Housing and child health in sub-Saharan Africa: A cross-sectional analysis.

BackgroundHousing is essential to human well-being but neglected in global health. Today, housing in Africa is rapidly improving alongside economic development, creating an urgent need to understand how these changes can benefit health. We hypothesised that improved housing is associated with better health in children living in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of housing conditions relative to a range of child health outcomes in SSA.Methods and findingsCross-sectional data were analysed for 824,694 children surveyed in 54 Demographic and Health Surveys, 21 Malaria Indicator Surveys, and two AIDS Indicator Surveys conducted in 33 countries between 2001 and 2017 that measured malaria infection by microscopy or rapid diagnostic test (RDT), diarrhoea, acute respiratory infections (ARIs), stunting, wasting, underweight, or anaemia in children aged 0–5 years. The mean age of children was 2.5 years, and 49.7% were female. Housing was categorised into a binary variable based on a United Nations definition comparing improved housing (with improved drinking water, improved sanitation, sufficient living area, and finished building materials) versus unimproved housing (all other houses). Associations between house type and child health outcomes were determined using conditional logistic regression within surveys, adjusting for prespecified covariables including age, sex, household wealth, insecticide-treated bed net use, and vaccination status. Individual survey odds ratios (ORs) were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Across surveys, improved housing was associated with 8%–18% lower odds of all outcomes except ARI (malaria infection by microscopy: adjusted OR [aOR] 0.88, 95% confidence intervals [CIs] 0.80–0.97, p = 0.01; malaria infection by RDT: aOR 0.82, 95% CI 0.77–0.88, p < 0.001; diarrhoea: aOR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88–0.97, p = 0.001; ARI: aOR 0.96, 95% CI 0.87–1.07, p = 0.49; stunting: aOR 0.83, 95% CI 0.77–0.88, p < 0.001; wasting: aOR 0.90, 95% CI 0.83–0.99, p = 0.03; underweight: aOR 0.85, 95% CI 0.80–0.90, p < 0.001; any anaemia: aOR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82–0.92, p < 0.001; severe anaemia: aOR 0.89, 95% CI 0.84–0.95, p < 0.001). In comparison, insecticide-treated net use was associated with 16%–17% lower odds of malaria infection (microscopy: aOR 0.83, 95% CI 0.78–0.88, p < 0.001; RDT: aOR 0.84, 95% CI 0.79–0.88, p < 0.001). Drinking water source and sanitation facility alone were not associated with diarrhoea. The main study limitations are the use of self-reported diarrhoea and ARI, as well as potential residual confounding by socioeconomic position, despite adjustments for household wealth and education.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that poor housing, which includes inadequate drinking water and sanitation facility, is associated with health outcomes known to increase child mortality in SSA. Improvements to housing may be protective against a number of important childhood infectious diseases as well as poor growth outcomes, with major potential to improve children’s health and survival across SSA.

Assessment of subpatent Plasmodium infection in northwestern Ethiopia

BackgroundEthiopia has set a goal for malaria elimination by 2030. Low parasite density infections may go undetected by conventional diagnostic methods (microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests) and their contribution to malaria transmission varies by transmission settings. This study quantified the burden of subpatent infections from samples collected from three regions of northwest Ethiopia.MethodsSub-samples of dried blood spots from the Ethiopian Malaria Indicator Survey 2015 (EMIS-2015) were tested and compared using microscopy, rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR) to determine the prevalence of subpatent infection. Paired seroprevalence results previously reported along with gender, age, and elevation of residence were explored as risk factors for Plasmodium infection.ResultsOf the 2608 samples collected, the highest positive rate for Plasmodium infection was found with nPCR 3.3% (95% CI 2.7–4.1) compared with RDT 2.8% (95% CI 2.2–3.5) and microscopy 1.2% (95% CI 0.8–1.7). Of the nPCR positive cases, Plasmodium falciparum accounted for 3.1% (95% CI 2.5–3.8), Plasmodium vivax 0.4% (95% CI 0.2–0.7), mixed P. falciparum and P. vivax 0.1% (95% CI 0.0–0.4), and mixed P. falciparum and Plasmodium malariae 0.1% (95% CI 0.0–0.3). nPCR detected an additional 30 samples that had not been detected by conventional methods. The majority of the nPCR positive cases (61% (53/87)) were from the Benishangul-Gumuz Region. Malaria seropositivity had significant association with nPCR positivity [adjusted OR 10.0 (95% CI 3.2–29.4), P < 0.001].ConclusionUsing nPCR the detection rate of malaria parasites increased by nearly threefold over rates based on microscopy in samples collected during a national cross-sectional survey in 2015 in Ethiopia. Such subpatent infections might contribute to malaria transmission. In addition to strengthening routine surveillance systems, malaria programmes may need to consider low-density, subpatent infections in order to accelerate malaria elimination efforts.

Simulating the council-specific impact of anti-malaria interventions: A tool to support malaria strategic planning in Tanzania.

IntroductionThe decision-making process for malaria control and elimination strategies has become more challenging. Interventions need to be targeted at council level to allow for changing malaria epidemiology and an increase in the number of possible interventions. Models of malaria dynamics can support this process by simulating potential impacts of multiple interventions in different settings and determining appropriate packages of interventions for meeting specific expected targets.MethodsThe OpenMalaria model of malaria dynamics was calibrated for all 184 councils in mainland Tanzania using data from malaria indicator surveys, school parasitaemia surveys, entomological surveillance, and vector control deployment data. The simulations were run for different transmission intensities per region and five interventions, currently or potentially included in the National Malaria Strategic Plan, individually and in combination. The simulated prevalences were fitted to council specific prevalences derived from geostatistical models to obtain council specific predictions of the prevalence and number of cases between 2017 and 2020. The predictions were used to evaluate in silico the feasibility of the national target of reaching a prevalence of below 1% by 2020, and to suggest alternative intervention stratifications for the country.ResultsThe historical prevalence trend was fitted for each council with an agreement of 87% in 2016 (95%CI: 0.84–0.90) and an agreement of 90% for the historical trend (2003–2016) (95%CI: 0.87–0.93) The current national malaria strategy was expected to reduce the malaria prevalence between 2016 and 2020 on average by 23.8% (95% CI: 19.7%-27.9%) if current case management levels were maintained, and by 52.1% (95% CI: 48.8%-55.3%) if the case management were improved. Insecticide treated nets and case management were the most cost-effective interventions, expected to reduce the prevalence by 25.0% (95% CI: 19.7%-30.2) and to avert 37 million cases between 2017 and 2020. Mass drug administration was included in most councils in the stratification selected for meeting the national target at minimal costs, expected to reduce the prevalence by 77.5% (95%CI: 70.5%-84.5%) and to avert 102 million cases, with almost twice higher costs than those of the current national strategy. In summary, the model suggested that current interventions are not sufficient to reach the national aim of a prevalence of less than 1% by 2020 and a revised strategic plan needs to consider additional, more effective interventions, especially in high transmission areas and that the targets need to be revisited.ConclusionThe methodology reported here is based on intensive interactions with the NMCP and provides a helpful tool for assessing the feasibility of country specific targets and for determining which intervention stratifications at sub-national level will have most impact. This country-led application could support strategic planning of malaria control in many other malaria endemic countries.

Uptake of intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy for malaria: further analysis of the 2016 Ghana Malaria Indicator Survey

Significant proportions of pregnant women living in malaria-endemic countries throughout the world are exposed to the risk of malaria. The World Health Organization (WHO) suggests the use of intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy with sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP) in at least three doses to achieve the optimal benefit of preventing malaria among pregnant women. The study uses secondary data from the 2016 Ghana Malaria Indicator Survey (GMIS). The analysis included a total of 1220 women aged from 15 to 49 who had children under the age of 24 months and who attended antenatal care (ANC) during their pregnancy. Multinomial logistic regression is used to examine the uptake of partial and optimal doses of IPTp-SP. The results show that, overall, the proportion of women in Ghana with uptake of IPTp-SP during pregnancy was 63% for three or more doses, 27% for one to two doses, and 10% for no dose. Uptake varies by background characteristics. At the bivariate level, sociodemographic factors (level of education and religion) and knowledge-related factors (exposure to messages on treatment of malaria and covered by health insurance) predicted partial (1–2 doses) or optimal uptake (3+ doses) of IPTp-SP compared to no uptake among pregnant women. The multinomial regression analysis showed that region, education, wealth, and exposure to messages on treatment of malaria are associated with uptake of optimal doses of IPTp-SP compared to partial uptake. The Ministry of Health, the National Malaria Control Program, Ghana Health Service, and other stakeholders should take cognizance of these factors in planning programs for improving uptake of IPTp-SP among pregnant women. Efforts should be made by stakeholders to increase women’s exposure to mass media messages on the use of IPTp-SP for malaria during pregnancy.

The quality of malaria care in 25 low-income and middle-income countries

IntroductionEven with accessible and effective diagnostic tests and treatment, malaria remains a leading cause of death among children under five. Malaria case management requires prompt diagnosis and correct treatment but...

Length of maternal schooling and children’s risk of malaria infection: evidence from a natural experiment in Uganda

IntroductionAn estimated 216 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide every year. Cross-sectional studies have reported negative association between maternal education and child malaria risks; however, no randomised trial or quasi-experimental...

Investigating the spatial variation and risk factors of childhood anaemia in four sub-Saharan African countries

BackgroundThe causes of childhood anaemia are multifactorial, interrelated and complex. Such causes vary from country to country, and within a country. Thus, strategies for anaemia control should be tailored to local conditions and take into account the specific etiology and prevalence of anaemia in a given setting and sub-population. In addition, policies and programmes for anaemia control that do not account for the spatial heterogeneity of anaemia in children may result in certain sub-populations being excluded, limiting the effectiveness of the programmes. This study investigated the demographic and socio-economic determinants as well as the spatial variation of anaemia in children aged 6 to 59 months in Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania and Uganda.MethodsThe study made use of data collected from nationally representative Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in all four countries between 2015 and 2017. During these surveys, all children under the age of five years old in the sampled households were tested for malaria and anaemia. A child’s anaemia status was based on the World Health Organization’s cut-off points where a child was considered anaemic if their altitude adjusted haemoglobin (Hb) level was less than 11 g/dL. The explanatory variables considered comprised of individual, household and cluster level factors, including the child’s malaria status. A multivariable hierarchical Bayesian geoadditive model was used which included a spatial effect for district of child’s residence.ResultsPrevalence of childhood anaemia ranged from 36.4% to 61.9% across the four countries. Children with a positive malaria result had a significantly higher odds of anaemia [AOR = 4.401; 95% CrI: (3.979, 4.871)]. After adjusting for a child’s malaria status and other demographic, socio-economic and environmental factors, the study revealed distinct spatial variation in childhood anaemia within and between Malawi, Uganda and Tanzania. The spatial variation appeared predominantly due to unmeasured district-specific factors that do not transcend boundaries.ConclusionsAnaemia control measures in Malawi, Tanzania and Uganda need to account for internal spatial heterogeneity evident in these countries. Efforts in assessing the local district-specific causes of childhood anaemia within each country should be focused on.

Investigating the Effect of Prompt Treatment on Malaria Prevalence in Children Aged below Five Years in Zambia: A Nested Case-Control Study in a Cross-Sectional Survey

Background. In a highly malaria endemic country like Zambia, prompt treatment of cases is known to reduce morbidity and mortality; however, it is not known whether it has a role as an effective prevention strategy because of the presence of asymptomatic chronic carriers who do not seek treatment and maintain the reservoirs of infection in the population. This study investigated the role of treatment of malaria cases as a prevention strategy in low, moderate, and high endemic settings. Methods. A nested case-control design was employed using datasets from a large countrywide national Malaria Indicator Survey of 2015. Self-reported malaria cases (n = 209) who took treatment in the two weeks preceding the survey were matched with controls (n = 511) who did not report malaria and did not take treatment during the same period using nearest neighbour propensity score matching for age, sex, and district. The data were analysed using conditional logistic regression in STATA version 15.1. Results. The malaria cases were more likely to be from rural areas (p=0.001), poorest households (p=0.049), and who lived in improvised housing structures (p=0.004) compared with the controls. Data from low and moderate malaria endemic areas did not have sufficient cases for the analysis to proceed; however, data from high endemic areas showed borderline evidence (p=0.054) that prompt treatment reduces the risk of malaria by almost half in the short-term aOR 0.057 (95% CI 0.32–1.01). Conclusion. We found borderline evidence which suggests that prompt treatment of malaria cases even in high endemic areas has potential to reduce the risk of malaria by almost half in the short term.

Factors associated with utilization of LLINs among women of child-bearing age in Igabi, Kaduna State, Nigeria

BackgroundThe long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) are effective against prevention of malaria and its utilization has been proven to save lives. Despite the mass distribution of LLIN, Nigeria remains the country with the highest malaria burden in Africa. The awareness of LLIN in Nigeria is high, but the utilization is low. The aim of this work is to describe factors associated with the utilization of LLIN among women of child-bearing age (WCBA) in Igabi, Kaduna, Nigeria.MethodsA cross-sectional survey was conducted among 630 WCBA selected using a multi-stage sampling at 63 randomly selected villages in Igabi Local Government Area of Kaduna State. Trained female data collectors administered pre-tested structured questionnaires adapted from the Malaria Indicator Survey. Information collected were demographic profile, knowledge of LLIN as a preventive strategy for malaria, and LLIN ownership and utilization. LLIN utilization was assessed by identifying household members that slept under the hanged LLIN the night before the survey. Questions on the awareness of LLIN, ability to define what it is, use of LLIN, what differentiates LLIN from other bed nets, and duration of use before replacement, were scored and categorized as good, average and poor knowledge of LLIN.ResultsA total of 629 WCBA was sampled, their mean age (± SD) was 29.3 (± 6.2) years, 22.0% were pregnant, 40.5% had no formal education, 41.1% were employed, and 47.7% lived in rural communities. Awareness and good knowledge about LLINs for the prevention of malaria was 96.0% and 24.0%, respectively. The proportion of women who slept under a LLIN the night before the survey (utilization) was 70.0% and slightly higher (74.0%) among pregnant WCBA. Women who lived in rural communities were more likely to utilize LLINs compared to their urban counterparts (OR 3.4; 95% CI 2.3–4.9). Younger women (aged < 30 years) were less likely to utilize LLINs compared to the older women (OR 0.7; 95% CI 0.5–0.9).ConclusionsThe knowledge of LLIN among WCBA was poor, but LLIN utilization was moderate. Living in rural communities and older WCBA were significant characteristics associated with LLIN utilization. Strategies that will improve the utilization of LLIN among the young and urban WCBA should be the focus of the Malaria Elimination Programme (MEP).

Who buys nets? Factors associated with ownership and use of purchased mosquito nets in sub-Saharan Africa

BackgroundPublic sector strategies to promote insecticide-treated net (ITN) access have resulted in increased ITN ownership across sub-Saharan Africa. However, the current status of the private sector distribution channel for nets has not been fully explored. This multi-country study explored the prevalence of net purchases and the characteristics of households that had purchased nets and used such nets in sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsData from recent Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) or Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in 16 countries were analysed to explore the prevalence of purchased nets. Purchased nets were defined as nets obtained from shops/markets or pharmacies. Additional sub-analysis of factors associated with ownership and use of purchased nets was conducted in seven countries with over 10% of nets reported as purchased. Key outcomes included: prevalence of purchased nets out of all nets, household ownership of a purchased net, and whether a purchased net was used the previous night. Analytical methods included country level tests of association and multivariable logistic regressions.ResultsAmong all nets, the proportion of purchased nets in the study countries ranged from 0.8 to 32.7% and most (median = 77%) of these purchased nets were ITNs. Although the private nets are presumed to be from the retail, non-public sector, the prevalence of treated purchased nets suggests that some purchased nets may be “leaked” ITNs from public sector distributions, and thus, may be an informal sector rather than part of the formal “private sector”. Urban, wealthier households as well as those with educated heads were more likely to own purchased nets. Use of such nets was, however, lower in wealthier households. In addition, net use was higher in households owning insufficient nets for their family size, and when the nets were newer than 24 months.ConclusionThe formal and informal private sector have played a role in bolstering net access rates in some settings. Study findings can help relevant malaria control stakeholders gain insight on the contribution of purchased nets on their overall ITN strategy, identify potential target populations for private sector nets as well as inform the design and distribution of private sector insecticide-treated nets that appeal to their target groups.

Characterizing the Spatial Determinants and Prevention of Malaria in Kenya.

The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 3 is to ensure health and well-being for all at all ages with a specific target to end malaria by 2030. Aligned with this goal, the primary objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of utilizing local spatial variations to uncover the statistical relationships between malaria incidence rate and environmental and behavioral factors across the counties of Kenya. Two data sources are used—Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys of 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015, and the national Malaria Indicator Survey of 2015. The spatial analysis shows clustering of counties with high malaria incidence rate, or hot spots, in the Lake Victoria region and the east coastal area around Mombasa; there are significant clusters of counties with low incidence rate, or cold spot areas in Nairobi. We apply an analysis technique, geographically weighted regression, that helps to better model how environmental and social determinants are related to malaria incidence rate while accounting for the confounding effects of spatial non-stationarity. Some general patterns persist over the four years of observation. We establish that variables including rainfall, proximity to water, vegetation, and population density, show differential impacts on the incidence of malaria in Kenya. The El-Nino–southern oscillation (ENSO) event in 2015 was significant in driving up malaria in the southern region of Lake Victoria compared with prior time-periods. The applied spatial multivariate clustering analysis indicates the significance of social and behavioral survey responses. This study can help build a better spatially explicit predictive model for malaria in Kenya capturing the role and spatial distribution of environmental, social, behavioral, and other characteristics of the households.

Spatio-temporal analysis of association between incidence of malaria and environmental predictors of malaria transmission in Nigeria

Malaria still poses a significant threat in Nigeria despite the various efforts to abate its transmission. Certain environmental factors have been implicated to increase the risk of malaria in Nigeria and other affected countries. The study aimed to evaluate the spatial and temporal association between the incidence of malaria and some environmental risk factors in Nigeria. The study used malaria incidence and environmental risk factors data emanating from 2015 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey accessed from the Demographic and Health Survey database. A total of 333 and 326 clusters throughout the country were used for malaria incidence study and environmental variables respectively. The spatial autocorrelation of malaria incidence and hotspot analysis was determined by the Moran’s diagram and local Moran’s I index, respectively. The relationships between the malaria incidence and the ecological predictors of transmission were analysed in all the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria from 2000–2015 using ordinary least square (OLS), spatial lag model (SLM), and spatial error model (SEM). Annual rainfall, precipitation and proximity to water showed significant positive relationship with the incidence rate of malaria in the OLS model (P < 0.01), whereas aridity was negatively related to malaria incidence (P < 0.001) in the same model. The rate of incidence of malaria increased significantly with increase in temperature, aridity, rainfall and proximity to water in the SEM whereas only temperature and proximity to water have significant positive effect on malaria incidence in the SLM. The modelling of the ecological predictors of malaria transmission and spatial maps provided in this study could aid in developing framework to mitigate malaria and identify its hotspots for urgent intervention in the endemic regions.

The potential of pregnant women as a sentinel population for malaria surveillance

BackgroundWith increasing spatial heterogeneity of malaria transmission and a shift of the disease burden towards older children and adults, pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC) have been proposed as a pragmatic sentinel population for malaria surveillance. However, the representativeness of routine ANC malaria test-positivity and its relationship with prevalence in other population subgroups are yet to be investigated.MethodsMonthly ANC malaria test-positivity data from all Tanzanian health facilities for January 2014 to May 2016 was compared to prevalence data from the School Malaria Parasitaemia Survey 2015, the Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) 2015/16, the Malaria Atlas Project 2015, and a Bayesian model fitted to MIS data. Linear regression was used to describe the difference between malaria test-positivity in pregnant women and respective comparison groups as a function of ANC test-positivity and potential covariates.ResultsThe relationship between ANC test-positivity and survey prevalence in children follows spatially and biologically meaningful patterns. However, the uncertainty of the relationship was substantial, particularly in areas with high or perennial transmission. In comparison, modelled data estimated higher prevalence in children at low transmission intensities and lower prevalence at higher transmission intensities.ConclusionsPregnant women attending ANC are a pragmatic sentinel population to assess heterogeneity and trends in malaria prevalence in Tanzania. Yet, since ANC malaria test-positivity cannot be used to directly predict the prevalence in other population subgroups, complementary community-level measurements remain highly relevant.

Estimating malaria burden among pregnant women using data from antenatal care centres in Tanzania: a population-based study

BackgroundMore timely estimates of malaria prevalence are needed to inform optimal control strategies and measure progress. Since 2014, Tanzania has implemented nationwide malaria screening for all pregnant women within the antenatal care system. We aimed to compare malaria test results during antenatal care to two population-based prevalence surveys in Tanzanian children aged 6–59 months to examine their potential in measuring malaria trends and progress towards elimination.MethodsMalaria test results from pregnant women screened at their first antenatal care visits at health-care facilities (private and public) in all 184 districts of Tanzania between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2017, were collected from the Health Management Information Systems and District Health Information System 2. We excluded facilities with no recorded antenatal care attendees during the time period. We standardised results to account for testing uptake and weighted them by the timing of two population-based surveys of childhood malaria prevalence done in 2015–16 (Demographic and Health Survey) and 2017 (Malaria Indicator Survey). We assessed regional-level correlation using Spearman’s coefficient and assessed the consistency of monthly district-level prevalence ranking using Kendall’s correlation coefficient.FindingsCorrelation between malaria prevalence at antenatal care and among children younger than 5 years was high (r≥0·83 for both surveys), although declines in prevalence at antenatal care were generally smaller than among children. Consistent heterogeneity (p<0·05) in antenatal care prevalence at the district level was evident in all but one region (Kilimanjaro). Data from antenatal care showed declining prevalence in three regions (Arusha, Kilimanjaro, and Manyara) where surveys estimated zero prevalence.InterpretationRoutine antenatal care-based screening can be used to assess heterogeneity in transmission at finer resolution than population-based surveys, and provides sample sizes powered to detect changes, notably in areas of low transmission where surveys lack power. Declines in prevalence at antenatal care might lag behind those among children, highlighting the value of monitoring burden and continuing prevention efforts among pregnant women as transmission declines. The pregnancy-specific benefits and cost-effectiveness of antenatal care-based screening remain to be assessed.

Mapping and enumerating houses and households to support malaria control interventions on Bioko Island

BackgroundHousing mapping and household enumeration are essential for the planning, implementation, targeting, and monitoring of malaria control interventions. In many malaria endemic countries, control efforts are hindered by incomplete or non-existent housing cartography and household enumeration. This paper describes the development of a comprehensive mapping and enumeration system to support the Bioko Island Malaria Control Project (BIMCP).ResultsA highly detailed database was developed to include every housing unit on Bioko Island and uniquely enumerate the associated households residing in these houses. First, the island was divided into a virtual, geo-dereferenced grid of 1 × 1 km sequentially numbered map-areas, each of which was in turn subdivided into one hundred, 100 × 100 m sequentially numbered map-sectors. Second, high-resolution satellite imagery was used to sequentially and uniquely identify all housing units within each map-sector. Third, where satellite imagery was not available, global positioning systems (GPS) were used as the basis for uniquely identifying and mapping housing units in a sequential manner. A total of 97,048 housing units were mapped by 2018, 56% of which were concentrated in just 5.2% of Bioko Island’s total mapped area. Of these housing units, 70.7% were occupied, thus representing uniquely identified households.ConclusionsThe housing unit mapping and household enumeration system developed for Bioko Island enabled the BIMCP to more effectively plan, implement, target, and monitor malaria control interventions. Since 2014, the BIMCP has used the unique household identifiers to monitor all household-level interventions, including indoor residual spraying, long-lasting insecticide-treated nets distribution, and annual malaria indicator surveys. The coding system used to create the unique housing unit and household identifiers is highly intuitive and allows quick location of any house within the grid without a GPS. Its flexibility has permitted the BIMCP to easily take into account the rapid and substantial changes in housing infrastructure. Importantly, by utilizing this coding system, an unprecedented quantity and diversity of detailed, geo-referenced demographic and health data have been assembled that have proved highly relevant for informing decision-making both for malaria control and potentially for the wider public health agenda on Bioko Island.

Multiplex serology demonstrate cumulative prevalence and spatial distribution of malaria in Ethiopia

BackgroundMeasures of malaria burden using microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in cross-sectional household surveys may incompletely describe the burden of malaria in low-transmission settings. This study describes the pattern of malaria transmission in Ethiopia using serological antibody estimates derived from a nationwide household survey completed in 2015.MethodsDried blood spot (DBS) samples were collected during the Ethiopian Malaria Indicator Survey in 2015 from malarious areas across Ethiopia. Samples were analysed using bead-based multiplex assays for IgG antibodies for six Plasmodium antigens: four human malaria species-specific merozoite surface protein-1 19kD antigens (MSP-1) and Apical Membrane Antigen-1 (AMA-1) for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Seroprevalence was estimated by age, elevation and region. The seroconversion rate was estimated using a reversible catalytic model fitted with maximum likelihood methods.ResultsOf the 10,278 DBS samples available, 93.6% (9622/10,278) had valid serological results. The mean age of participants was 15.8 years and 53.3% were female. National seroprevalence for antibodies to P. falciparum was 32.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 29.8–34.4) and 25.0% (95% CI 22.7–27.3) to P. vivax. Estimated seroprevalences for Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium ovale were 8.6% (95% CI 7.6–9.7) and 3.1% (95% CI 2.5–3.8), respectively. For P. falciparum seroprevalence estimates were significantly higher at lower elevations (< 2000 m) compared to higher (2000–2500 m) (aOR 4.4; p < 0.01). Among regions, P. falciparum seroprevalence ranged from 11.0% (95% CI 8.8–13.7) in Somali to 65.0% (95% CI 58.0–71.4) in Gambela Region and for P. vivax from 4.0% (95% CI 2.6–6.2) in Somali to 36.7% (95% CI 30.0–44.1) in Amhara Region. Models fitted to measure seroconversion rates showed variation nationally and by elevation, region, antigen type, and within species.ConclusionUsing multiplex serology assays, this study explored the cumulative malaria burden and regional dynamics of the four human malarias in Ethiopia. High malaria burden was observed in the northwest compared to the east. High transmission in the Gambela and Benishangul-Gumuz Regions and the neglected presence of P. malariae and P. ovale may require programmatic attention. The use of a multiplex assay for antibody detection in low transmission settings has the potential to act as a more sensitive biomarker.

Regional variation and demographic factors associated with knowledge of malaria risk and prevention strategies among pregnant women in Nigeria

ABSTRACTPregnant women and children are the most vulnerable populations for malaria infection. Yet, knowledge of risk, and preventive measures are poor among this population. Using the 2015 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey, we applied logit link function to estimate the associations of wealth status, educational attainment, and region of residence with malaria risk knowledge and prevention strategies (using a treated mosquito net and malaria drugs) among 739 Nigerian pregnant women aged 15–49 years. Urban women who had obtained a secondary school education (Adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.12; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09–4) or higher (aOR = 8.31; 95% CI 3.2–22) had more knowledge of malaria risk. Urban women in the South-West (aOR = 5.02; [CI] 2.02–12.50) and South-East (aOR = 2.68; 95% CI 1.19–6.06) were more likely to use treated mosquito nets during pregnancy. Women in the urban South-West (aOR = 4.04; 95% CI 1.5–11) were more likely to use malaria drugs during pregnancy than those in the North-Central. A wide regional disparity in the knowledge of malaria risks and use of preventive measures exists. Thus, promoting equal access to malaria preventive measures as well as improving knowledge about malaria transmission by mosquitoes should be considered as essential components of ongoing malaria control and elimination efforts in Nigeria.

Targeting remaining pockets of malaria transmission in Kenya to hasten progress towards national elimination goals: an assessment of prevalence and risk factors in children from the Lake endemic region

BackgroundWith an overall decline of malaria incidence, elimination of malaria is gradually becoming the next target for many of countries affected by the disease. In Kenya the national malaria control strategy is aiming to reach pre-elimination for most parts of the country. However, considerable heterogeneity in prevalence of the disease within the country and especially the remaining high prevalent region of the Lake endemic region is likely to slow progress towards this target. To achieve a sustained control and an eventual elimination, a clear understanding of drivers of ongoing malaria transmission in remaining hotspots is needed.MethodsData from the 2015 Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) were analysed for prevalence of malaria parasitaemia in children (6 months to 14 years) of different countries within the highly endemic Lake region. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were preformed to explore associations between selected risk factors and being parasitaemic. A predictive model was built for the association between malaria and the risk factors with the aim of identifying heterogeneities of the disease at the lower administrative levels.ResultsOverall, 604/2253 (27%, 95% CI 21.8–32.2) children were parasitaemic. The highest prevalence was observed in Busia County (37%) and lowest in Bungoma County (18%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the 10–14 years age group (OR = 3.0, 95% CI 2.3–4.1), households in the poorest socio-economic class (OR = 2.1, 95% CI 1.3–3.3), farming (OR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.2–2.5) and residence in Busia (OR = 4.6, 95% CI 2.1–8.2), Kakamega (OR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.3–5.4), and Migori counties (OR = 4.6 95% CI 2.1–10.3) were associated with higher risk of parasitaemia. Having slept under a long-lasting insecticide-treated bed net (LLIN) was associated with a lower risk (OR = 0.7, 95% CI 0.6–0.9). No association were found between malaria infection and the gender of the child, the household head, and the education status of the household head.Discussion and conclusionDetailed analysis of malaria prevalence data in a hotspot area can identify new threats and avail opportunities for directing intervention. In the Lake endemic region of Kenya, interventions should be focused more on counties with the highest prevalence, and should target older children as well as children from the lower socio-economic strata. Precisely targeting interventions in remaining hotspots and high-risk populations will likely make impact and accelerate progress towards pre-elimination targets.