Major Parties Research Articles

Multi-scale analysis of the community structure of the Twitter discourse around the Italian general elections of September 2022

We perform a multi-scale analysis of the geometric structure of the network of X (Twitter at the time of data collection) interactions surrounding the Italian snap general elections of September 25th 2022. We identify within it the communities related to the major Italian political parties and after it we analyse both the large-scale structure of interactions between different parties, showing that it resembles the coalitions formed in the run-up to the elections and the internal structure of each community. We observe that some parties have a very centralised communication with the major leaders clearly occupying the central role, while others have a more horizontal communication strategy, with many accounts playing an important role. We observe that this can be characterized by checking whether the network in the community has a strongly connected giant component or not.

Presidential Threshold in The Election of The President and Vice President from A Constitution and Human Rights Perspective

Art 222 Law Number 7 year 2017 concerning General Elections, regulates the provisions of the threshold where the acquisition of seats in the DPR must be 20 percent or obtain valid votes nationally as much as 25 percent then political parties can nominate and nominate pairs of presidential and vice-presidential candidates. Setting the Presidential Threshold in the election of President and Vice President in Indonesia from a constitutional and human rights perspective brings its own problems in the Indonesian constitutional system. The Presidential Threshold system does give rise to privileges for certain parties. This is because only parties that meet the threshold can compete directly in the presidential election. It is for this reason that the privileges of these major parties have given birth to political cartels. What is bad for democracy is that it eliminates equal competition for all potential candidates to contest the Presidential election. The Presidential Threshold is not justified in eliminating or emasculating the meaning of democracy which provides rights and freedoms for citizens. Among the constitutional rights include the right to vote, the right to nominate (the right to be a candidate), and the right to nominate candidates, these are rights guaranteed by the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia which everything is reduced because of this Presidential Threshold provision.

Politics, Chieftaincy and Violent Extremism: Case of Chereponi-Wenchiki in Ghana-Togo Border

This study examined three issues, namely politics, violent extremism, and chieftaincy issues, in the Ghana-Togo border communities to determine which variable(s) influenced the other. This paper examines the relationship between violent extremism, politics, and chieftaincy conflicts in Ghana's North East region. It attempts to see if there is any linkage or connection between or among the three variables in the context of conflict and security along the two West African countries' borders (Ghana and Togo). Edward Azar's (1990) Protracted Conflict Theory (PCT), later emphasized by Bat-Tal (2000), guided the study. This study posits that politics and chieftaincy conflicts are the primary causes of violent extremism. In this regard, the study seeks the opinions, views, and experiences of the people in the Chereponi district, especially the communities along the Ghana-Togo borders. The study adopted an exploratory research design with a blend of experts' and non-experts' perspectives in the North East Region of Ghana and a few communities in Togo. The experts are spread across five regions of Northern Ghana, whereas the non-experts are concentrated in the Chereponi district. Twenty (20) respondents were interviewed face-to-face. The study found that the two major political parties (NPP and NDC) in Ghana were more involved in promoting the interests of some chiefs for political expediency. It found no link between politics and chieftaincy, leading to violent extremism. The study concludes that there is a clear link between politics and the chieftaincy institution in Ghana, but it also establishes that the Ghana-Togo border is free of extremist activities. It recommends a strong collaboration between Ghana and Togo in the fight against insecurity and possible acts of violent extremism along their borders.

The European far right and human rights language

ABSTRACT In recent years, the European far-right movements have increasingly employed the language and terminology of human rights, even though resistance towards international influences continues to be one of their most consistent traits. The purpose of this article is to analyse how authors in the European far right use human rights language and concepts and what it reveals of their views on human rights. In this analysis, based on publications by major European parties, organisations, and activists in the far-right movement mainly in France, Germany and Finland, we argue that while the use of human rights language is primarily instrumental, it also utilises surprising remnants from the history of human rights thought, such as the relative natural law theory. In many cases, the observed uses are thinly veiled attempts to pass racism as legitimate rights claims, but others are more creative, for example when the criticism of Western bias in human rights is turned into an argument for white supremacy, repurposing the language of minority protections.

Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) Versus Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah): A Contestation Over Interpretation of Islam in Malaysian Politics

This study analysed contending views over interpretation of Islam in politics between two major Malaysian Islamist political parties; Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and Parti Amanah Negara (AMANAH), and how the differing discourses taken were reflected electorally. It explored the historical dynamics of conservatism and progressivism within PAS, and by extension AMANAH as its splinter party. Primary and secondary documentation analysis was conducted on resources ranging from writings and speeches of respective party figures, official documents and extensive literatures written on the subject. The research concluded firstly, a preference over Malay communalistic ideas in PAS was the main factor that led to the systematic elimination of AMANAH. Secondly, while PAS has a long historical root centred upon creation of Islamic state, implementation of hudud, and exclusivist attitude towards others, AMANAH views Islam from the higher objectives of syariah that emphasizes good governance, justice, and inclusivity regardless of religious and ethnic differences. Thirdly, a mutual contestation existed, id est not only AMANAH challenged the conservative Islamist narrative of PAS, PAS also challenged the progressive Islamist narrative of AMANAH. Finally, electoral contestation between PAS and AMANAH shown that AMANAH managed to edge over PAS in 14th General Election (GE14). However, PAS capitalized on ethnic sentiments to gain unprecedented electoral success in 15th General Election (GE15). While this research was limited to existing data in the field, future studies could utilize quantitative methods to explore how electorates on the ground grasp respective parties’ ideas and contestation.

Analysis of Offensive Language Use by South Korea’s Two Major Political Parties: Using Party Press Releases from 2007 to 2023

Analysis of Offensive Language Use by South Korea’s Two Major Political Parties: Using Party Press Releases from 2007 to 2023

Without “Bipartisanship” Have Referendums to Change the Australian Constitution Ever Succeeded? An Unnoticed Success, Several Near‐Misses, and the Struggle to Explain Why Referendums Fail

That bipartisanship has been required for referendums to change the Australian Constitution to succeed is regarded widely as axiomatic. But the idea of bipartisanship as a necessary condition of success is relatively new; in the first half of the twentieth century, party opposition did not loom large in accounts of why referendums failed. And for good reason. As this article shows, the importance attached to bipartisanship is based on a misreading of the record from 1906 to 1951: first, because there is one referendum—the 1946 referendum on Social Services—that passed without bipartisan support; second, because several other referendums came close to passing, despite lacking bipartisan support; and third, because bipartisanship allows for the minor party in a coalition to be opposed provided the major party is in favour—one reason why commentators have misread the success of the Social Services referendum. Whether or not bipartisanship has been necessary, it has never been regarded as sufficient. Attempts to identify more than one factor in the success of referendums have proliferated. But attempts to measure their relative importance—either in particular referendums or across referendums as a whole—have not got us very far.

Seachange Migration, Outer Metropolitan Suburbanisation, and Marginality: The Electoral Politics of the Central Coast of New South Wales, 1949–2001

Seachanging and the expansion of suburbia led to important changes in Australia's human geography during the second half of the twentieth century. However, the implications of domestic migration on electoral politics have received only limited study. The Central Coast of New South Wales was one place where these two patterns of movement converged and which came to be routinely identified in public debate as electorally marginal. In reviewing this discursive positioning across both federal and state politics over several decades, the article examines how the region's marginality was often linked to the social mix created by migration primarily from Sydney, among which retirees and long distance commuters received particular attention as cohorts of voters. The analysis then turns to electoral competition in what was thus seen as a contestable space. This spanned national, state, and local issues and the major parties sometimes pre‐selected candidates offering very distinct value propositions. Overall, the Central Coast's regional political discourse reflected wider understandings of voting realignment seen around Australia, including changing perspectives on class, but also highlights how migration created new, formative communities where marginality was viewed as an important part of local political identity and practice.

Electoral change through generational replacement: An age-period-cohort analysis of vote choice across 21 countries between 1948 and 2021

People’s generation may have become one of the core predictors of their vote choice. This study examines this hypothesis across 21 Western established democracies between 1948 and 2021. An age-period-cohort analysis on 258 national election surveys (N = 462.084) reveals that the most recent generations are much less likely to vote for the major right-wing party in two-party systems. In multi-party systems, the gradual decline of Christian democratic parties has been largely driven by the generational replacement of pre-WW2 cohorts. Social democratic and conservative parties may face a challenge in future decades because their support is particularly low among the most recent generations whereas liberal, socialist, and particularly green parties stand to gain from generational replacement. Far-right parties have been least popular among voters who came of age during the 1930s and 1940s. A small life-cycle effect points out that people over the age of 65 vote slightly more conservative.

An Examination of the Policy Content of Scott Morrison's and Anthony Albanese's 2022 Federal Election Campaign Materials

This Research Note reports on an analysis of the speeches, media releases, opinion pieces, and transcripts of the utterances of both major party leaders, Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese, during the 2022 federal election campaign. We undertake a reflexive thematic analysis of these documents to identify the key messages of the two campaigns.

Cross-border political competition.

Individuals are increasingly exposed to news and opinion from beyond national borders. This news and opinion are often concentrated in clusters of ideological homophily, such as political parties, factions, or interest groups. But how does exposure to cross-border information affect the diffusion of ideas across national and ideological borders? Here, we develop a non-linear mathematical model for the cross-border spread of two ideologies. First, we describe the standard deterministic model where the populations of each country are assumed to be constant and homogeneously mixed. We solve the system of differential equations numerically by the Runge-Kutta method and show how small changes in the influence of a minority ideology can trigger shifts in the global political equilibrium. Second, we simulate recruitment as a stochastic differential process for each political affiliation and fit model solutions to population growth rates and voting populations in US presidential elections from 1932 to 2020. We also project the dynamics of several possible scenarios from 2020 to the end of the century. We show that cross-border influence plays a fundamental role in determining election outcomes. An increase in foreign support for a national party's ideas could change the election outcome, independent of domestic recruitment capacity. One key finding of our study suggests that voter turnout in the US will grow at a faster rate than non-voters in the coming decades. This trend is attributed to the enhanced recruitment capabilities of both major parties among non-partisans over time, making political disaffection less prominent. This phenomenon holds true across all simulated scenarios.

From regional autonomy towards horizontal and vertical congruence coalition politics in Polish regions in the period 1998–2018

ABSTRACT In 1999 regional self-government was established in Poland and, subsequently, politics began to operate in a new multilevel setting. The question raised in this article is, how did Polish parties adapt to functioning in a multilevel system focusing on coalition politics? The analysis of documents – regional assemblies’ resolutions were used to track regional coalition formation in the period 1998–2018 – was supplemented by data gathered from the author’s interviews with regional politicians. The tendency to avoid cross-cutting coalitions was evident from the first two elections when regional politics was rather autonomous. Vertically and horizontally congruent coalitions gradually became standard when advantageous conditions occurred after 2006. The particular features of the party system leading to the avoidance of cross-cutting coalitions were the role of socio-political cleavage, that is a ‘post-communist divide’ and, later, rising polarization within a bipolar party system. Cross-cutting coalitions were occasionally acceptable but never those requiring cooperation between a majority party forming the government and the main opposition party at the central level. Recent studies indicate the rise of divergent coalitions in Europe, but in Polish regions, the contrary tendency has been observed.

Senate Countermajoritarianism

This article is the first comprehensive treatment of countermajoritarian roll call outcomes in the U.S. Senate, 1789–2022. Divergences from majoritarian principles are rooted in part in malapportionment and equal representation by state. Roll calls where a majority of the chamber votes one way while the other side represents most of the U.S. population are frequent across Senate history, depending on the proportion of the population covered by the majority party and the degree of conflict in the agenda. Other departures from majoritarian principles derive from the presence of supermajority requirements within the chamber. Such decision thresholds likewise are prevalent across Senate history, with significant increases since the 1970s. Although the two sources of countermajoritarian potential tend to be mutually reinforcing, under certain conditions they work against one another. The partisan impact varies over time, but in the modern chamber, Republicans have benefited more from Senate countermajoritarianism than have Democrats.

Application of Game Theory in the Nigerian Electoral System

In this paper, we carry out a study on the application of game theory in the Nigerian electoral system. The data for the study was collected from the official publication of INEC results for six major political parties in the February 25th, 2023 presidential election in Nigeria. In the competitive game, each political party and INEC used mixed strategies in the game. The political parties compete for the electorates’ vote while INEC regulates the game. INEC has six strategies and political parties also have six strategies which they apply in various proportions to outweigh the other. Therefore, for any of the political parties to be successful in the election, she must apply: party structure up to 19.54%; manifesto up to 20.18%; campaign up to 19.05%; people’s perception of the political party up to 20.26%; vote from electorate up to 19.54% and acceptable candidate up to 1.43% of the time respectively. For INEC to effectively perform her statutory responsibility, she must apply: electoral law up to 18.71%; electoral guidelines up to 19.99%; prosecuting electoral offenders up to 16.87%; cancelling elections up to 23.14%; inconclusive elections up to 19.19%; declaration of results up to 2.10% of the time respectively and the value of the game was 1.5337.

Issue Ownership and Framing

This article explores how Scottish political parties frame their owned issues on social media to persuade voters during the run-up to elections. Through a qualitative analysis of 150 Twitter and Facebook posts from five major Scottish parties, the study reveals that parties employ threat and victim framing to bolster their vote share. Opposition parties predominantly portray the Scottish National Party (SNP) as a threat, while all parties frame the electorate as victims. The extent and focus of these frames vary based on parties' parliamentary strength and government/opposition status. The SNP, holding a strong governing position, focuses on advancing its independence agenda, while other parties critique the SNP and then promote their own priorities. This article contributes to framing theory by highlighting the nuanced relationship between issue ownership, threat, and victim frames in shaping electoral outcomes. The findings underscore the strategic use of social media by parties to influence voter perceptions and decisions.

The general theoretic aspects of the optimization of democracy in the context of the guaranteeing of the order and welfare

The article is devoted to the problems and perspectives of democracy as the form of organization of the social and political existence in general, as well as to the some aspects of the optimization of democracy in the context of the guaranteeing of the social welfare in particular. The real aim of the existence of the democracy was revealed. It was noted that stability is the most important elements of the value of the state. The author pays attention to the advantages of the presidential republic, of the constitutional monarchy, of the «Polybius scheme» of the ideal «mixed» state, of the two-party system, of the indirect elections, of the temporal fixation of the elections and of the absence of the snap elections in the context of the guarantee of the political stability. The optimal model of government, the rational limits of the democracy and its acceptable forms were proposed. The author says that democracy is more or less acceptable only if the laws of the state guarantee the impossibility of the election of the unworthy candidate. The system of the electoral qualifications for the members of the Electoral College as well as for the candidates to the elected positions was recommended. Also, the similar system of the qualifications for the officials of the executive power was recommended. The author says that the republican state should be built «from the below». It was noticed that citizens may make the conscious choice only inside their common during the local elections or during the elections of the members of the Electoral College, when they really know the candidates and their personal qualities. The author recommends the political model, when people elect the members of the Electoral College, and the last one form the local representative organs during the local elections, and after that the local representative organs delegate some their members to the regional representative organs, and the last one delegate some their members and form the parliament of the state. Also, the political model, when the executive power is built «from the below», was recommended. The author says that each official of the executive power should start his service from the primary position in local executive bodies, and that the filling of the vacant positions should be done exclusively on the basis of professionalism, experience, length of service and seniority of the officials, but not on the grounds of the arbitrariness of the highest officials or randomnicity. The main principles of replacing of the post of the head of the state in the parliamentary republic as well as in the presidential republic were outlined. It was noted that the professionalism, experience and the high moral qualities of the officials, and especially of the senior state officials, are the fundament of the effective governance and welfare of society, etc.

Facebook Campaigning in the 2019 and 2021 Canadian Federal Elections

Canada’s federal elections in 2019 and 2021 produced a similar outcome—a minority Liberal government. These back-to-back elections provide an ideal context to understand trends in digital campaigning strategies and assess how the pandemic influenced campaigns’ use of social media. We examine how the three leaders of the major parties used Facebook in 2019 (<em>n</em> = 712) compared to 2021 (<em>n</em> = 979). The Conservative leader O’Toole posted more frequently than other candidates in 2021, fitting with the equalization theory of digital campaigning. In 2019 and 2021, the incumbent prime minister, Trudeau, received the most user engagement on his Facebook posts despite calling a snap election during a pandemic and less than two years into his mandate. These findings support normalization theories of digital campaigning with evidence of an accumulating incumbent advantage. The Covid-19 pandemic sidelined attention to climate change. We argue that the Liberal government owned both issues; we expected Trudeau to have greater attention to and user engagement for these policy posts. In general, Facebook posts about the pandemic yielded greater user engagement than posts that did not mention the pandemic. Candidates tested new campaign strategies in 2021, particularly making calls to interact with them; these posts yielded higher user engagement than posts that did not include a call to interact. While candidates used new social media campaign strategies, voter turnout declined from 2019 to 2021. These findings have implications for other democratic systems and the future of digital campaigning.

A Mathematical Model of an Electoral Process and Predicting of Outcome

We developed and analysed a mathematical model to study the dynamics of an electoral process and predict the outcome in Nigeria with three political parties as major actors. We model the ruling party (P1); major opposition party (P2) and minority opposition parties (P3). The model includes party campaigners of the three political parties and a class of eligible voters. The model also incorporates the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), electoral observers, judiciary, security personnel and thugs. The influx of voters into the system is determined by the registration rate of voter cards. The model’s interest lies in the measure of positive influence that the party campaigners who eligible voters to join their party. With this, the model mirrors election’s outcome and the movement of voters between the three groups of political parties involved. The model has proven that the pattern of election’s outcome for each political party is affected by the defection of party members and lack of policy consistency. We determine the equilibria analytically and discuss the stability of the system. Numerical simulations are graphed in combination with curve fitting to compare each party’s performances over the years. The result shows that no political party remains in power steadily from 2007 to 2019. Thus, the prediction of elections outcome to the political space of any region in Nigeria depends on political party structures and voters’ decisions.

Mobilizing middlemen: the Conservative Political Action Conference and the creation of party activists

ABSTRACT How are activists molded into middlemen in a polarized two-party system? Using the case of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), this paper examines the process of activist mobilization that occurs at political gatherings. Using two rounds of interviews and participant observation from CPAC in 2019 and 2020, I argue that contrary to popular media portrayals of CPAC as political theater now rooted in the spectacle of President Trump, the conference is an important site of mobilizing activists into party middlemen. This happens through three processes: first conference attendees are taught conservative policy stances and presented with a bundle of issue positions; second, they are provided with the tools for effective activism formally through provided training and informally through socialization; and finally, their conservative identity is continually defined and reinforced with cultural meaning-making practices throughout the conference.

Ethnic votes and parties' mobilization: A case study of New Zealand

AbstractThe aim of this research is to investigate how ethnicity and political parties' mobilization efforts influence the voting preferences of migrants in electoral contexts. To achieve this, an empirical study was conducted, focusing on New Zealand's two major parties (New Zealand National and New Zealand Labour Party) and their mobilization practice targeting ethnic Chinese voters. This research adopted a mixed‐methods approach, involving conducting interviews with Chinese community leaders and surveys within the community. The quantitative findings establish a positive correlation between a party's mobilization efforts and the level of support from Chinese ethnic voters. Furthermore, the research underscores the importance of genuine targeting, emphasizing the recognition and addressing of the unique needs and concerns of ethnic minority communities, rather than engaging in mere tokenism.Related ArticlesEscaleras, Monica, Dukhong Kim, and Kevin M. Wagner. 2019. “You Are Who You Think You Are: Linked Fate and Vote Choices among Latino Voters.” Politics & Policy 47(5): 902–30. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12329.McKay, Spencer. 2021. “The Politics of Referendum Rules: Evidence from New Zealand (1893–2016).” Politics & Policy 50(1): 137–53. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12445.Stokes‐Brown, Atiya Kai. 2009. “The Hidden Politics of Identity: Racial Self‐Identification and Latino Political Engagement.” Politics & Policy 37(6): 1281–305. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2009.00220.x.