Major League Baseball Games Research Articles

The Ballpark Effect: Spatial-Data-Driven Insights into Baseball’s Local Economic Impact

The impact of sporting events on local economies and their spatial distribution is a topic of active policy debate. This study adds to the discussion by examining granular cellphone location data to assess the spillover effects of Major League Baseball (MLB) games in a major US city. Focusing on the 2019 season, we explore granular geospatial patterns in mobility and consumer spending on game days versus non-game days in the Saint Louis region. Through density-based clustering and hotspot analysis, we uncover distinct spatiotemporal signatures and variations in visitor affluence across different teams. This study uses features like game day characteristics, location data (latitude and longitude), business types, and spending data. A significant finding is that specific spatial clusters of economic activity are formed around the stadium, particularly on game days, with multiple clusters identified. These clusters reveal a marked increase in spending at businesses such as restaurants, bars, and liquor stores, with revenue surges of up to 38% in certain areas. We identified a significant change in spending patterns in the local economy during games, with results varying greatly across teams. Notably, the XGBoost model performs best, achieving a test R2 of 0.80. The framework presented enhances the literature at the intersection of urban economics, sports analytics, and spatial modeling while providing data-driven actionable insights for businesses and policymakers.

Cooler Bobbleheads Prevail: Bobblehead Character Type and Impact on Attendance at Major League Baseball Games

Abstract: Giveaways such as jerseys, caps, or bobbleheads are part of a host of promotions used to entice fans to purchase tickets and attend live events, particularly in sports. Bobbleheads have often been viewed as the bellwether giveaway in demand-side analytical studies as they are common across sport, league, and team and are viewed as highly prized collectable items. Empiricists typically code promotions as binary variables to measure the impact these additional perks have on attendance, yet each bobblehead event features a distinct figurine distinguished by several previously unexplored dimensions. Due to the nature of bobbleheads typically resembling real-life individuals, consumer sentiment toward the bobblehead’s namesake may drive or deter the demand for the giveaway. Using a novel dataset of descriptions of bobblehead giveaways, this study finds that demand for Major League Baseball games varies by a bobblehead’s character type, where the impact on attendance is greatest for bobbleheads featuring players and sportscasters, lowest for managers, and middling for mascots and other types. Evidence suggests that bobbleheads depicted in costumes or as characters of licensed brands lead to greater attendance than brandless bobbleheads, yet the gains observed from the average branded bobblehead game may not offset the additional costs associated with licensing agreements.

Inefficient Forecasts at the Sportsbook: An Analysis of Real-Time Betting Line Movement

This paper tests the efficiency of a set of sports betting markets using detailed betting line movement from opening until closing for four different sportsbooks for each of 3,681 Major League Baseball games. The reliability of the markets’ forecasts are assessed at several lead times. The forecasts are mostly reliable, but there are simple betting strategies that would have yielded significant profit. In addition, forecasts do not always improve monotonically as the games get closer, despite more information being available; forecasts at weekend day games’ start times are significantly worse than forecasts 90 minutes earlier. Furthermore, analysis of the sequences of forecasts within individual games reveals that these betting markets do not incorporate information optimally. There is sufficient evidence to reject weak form market efficiency; specifically, betting lines tend to overreact, exhibiting significant negatively autocorrelated changes that could be exploited by sophisticated bettors. This paper was accepted by Manel Baucells, behavioral economics and decision analysis. Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.00456 .

Machine learning prediction of factors affecting Major League Baseball (MLB) game attendance: algorithm comparisons and macroeconomic factor of unemployment

PurposeThis study aims to identify an automated machine learning algorithm with high accuracy that sport practitioners can use to identify the specific factors for predicting Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance. Furthermore, by predicting spectators for each league (American League and National League) and division in MLB, the authors will identify the specific factors that increase accuracy, discuss them and provide implications for marketing strategies for academics and practitioners in sport.Design/methodology/approachThis study used six years of daily MLB game data (2014–2019). All data were collected as predictors, such as game performance, weather and unemployment rate. Also, the attendance rate was obtained as an observation variable. The Random Forest, Lasso regression models and XGBoost were used to build the prediction model, and the analysis was conducted using Python 3.7.FindingsThe RMSE value was 0.14, and the R2 was 0.62 as a consequence of fine-tuning the tuning parameters of the XGBoost model, which had the best performance in forecasting the attendance rate. The most influential variables in the model are “Rank” of 0.247 and “Day of the week”, “Home team” and “Day/Night game” were shown as influential variables in order. The result was shown that the “Unemployment rate”, as a macroeconomic factor, has a value of 0.06 and weather factors were a total value of 0.147.Originality/valueThis research highlights unemployment rate as a determinant affecting MLB game attendance rates. Beyond contextual elements such as climate, the findings of this study underscore the significance of economic factors, particularly unemployment rates, necessitating further investigation into these factors to gain a more comprehensive understanding of game attendance.

Striking Out Swinging: Specialist Success Following Forced Task Inferiority

Organizing work around specialized professionals leverages their deep expertise and mastery of particular skills. However, as work becomes more flexible, organizations often require specialists to perform some work outside their specialization. These tasks, which distance specialists from the area of their greatest contribution, could diminish their performance by being distracting or tiring or by creating negative comparisons with others who are more proficient in that work. Contrary to these perspectives, we find robust evidence that specialists’ performance can be enhanced, rather than diminished, after work outside their specialization. Using archival data from 22 years of Major League Baseball (MLB) games and interviews with former MLB players and coaches, we find that specialized players perform better in their specialty after obligatory tasks outside of their specialization. We argue that this occurs through a process we call forced task inferiority, in which underperformance in tasks outside their specialty frustrates specialists, generating heightened arousal and drive that they can channel into better performance in their specialty work. The results are robust to alternative mechanisms, such as tasks outside a specialist’s area of specialization leading to learning, breaking monotony, or threatening the specialist’s professional identity. This research advances knowledge about managing specialists and flexible work arrangements by showing that when tasks are particularly sequenced, specialists’ performance can be enhanced, rather than diminished, by doing work outside their specialty. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2023.1680 .

Global Warming, Home Runs, and the Future of America’s Pastime

Abstract Home runs in baseball—fair balls hit out of the field of play—have risen since 1980, driving strategic shifts in gameplay. Myriad factors likely account for these trends, with some speculating that global warming has contributed via a reduction in ballpark air density. Here we use observations from 100,000 Major League Baseball games and 240,000 individual batted balls to show that higher temperatures substantially increase home runs. We isolate human-caused warming with climate models, finding that >500 home runs since 2010 are attributable to historical warming. Several hundred additional home runs per season are projected due to future warming. Adaptations such as building domes on stadiums or shifting day games to night games reduce temperature’s effects on America’s pastime. Our results highlight the myriad ways that a warmer planet will restructure our lives, livelihoods, and recreation, some quantifiable and easily adapted to, as shown here, many others, not.

Examining the impacts of “local” concessions at major league baseball stadiums

ABSTRACT Sports stadiums represent important hospitality entities that generate billions and act as both powerful memorials of and contributors to place and destination image for visitors and locals alike. With increasing entertainment competition and waning fan attendance, many sport facilities are elevating gastronomic options available at events by integrating local foods, drinks and hospitality brands into concession environments, particularly as concessions are a central source of revenue for many sport entities. The use of local in this capacity is often viewed as beneficial — satisfying fans’ expectations for unique experiences and tastes. However, the neolocal practice of integrating local eateries and watering holes into stadium concession environments may have other unanticipated impacts outside the facility or venue, potentially limiting the values and benefits typically associated with neolocalism. Despite the popularity of concessions at sporting events, these aspects of the gastro trend have received little scholarly attention. Thus, this study sought to examine the relationship between local and sport concessions using a deconstructive approach to explore the phenomena in major league baseball (MLB). Data collected at four MLB games at four different stadiums in 2019, utilising a case study methodology, revealed that the concessions now offered enhanced the visitor experience whether through nostalgia or perceived insight into the host city’s culinary scene. Yet, when deconstructed, the local foods and drinks, through hospitality vendors within sport concession experiences may undermine in some ways the values and benefits associated with neolocalism.

Analyzing the Relationship between the Major League Baseball (MLB) Attendance and the Length of Baseball Games: A Hierarchical Linear Modeling of the 2010-19 MLB Seasons

In order to investigate the relationship between Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance and game duration, this study analyzed the number of spectators throughout the 2010-19 MLB regular seasons (N=24,297) with attendance determinants identified in earlier studies. Also, a three-level hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) was used in consideration of the characteristics of attendance data for several seasons, teams, and individual games. A total of 27 independent variables were used in the current research, and 17 attendance determinants, including game duration (γ =4.45, p<.05), were identified as having a significant impact on the number of spectators. Furthermore, by confirming the hierarchical structure of the attendance data, this study highlights how critical it is to utilize appropriate analytical methods. Based on these findings and statistical analysis that confirmed MLB''s current attendance decline, these results will help in the development of a number of strategies to increase or sustain team’s attendance to practitioners.

One Strike, You’re Out: Lightning during Professional Baseball Games

Abstract Millions of people attend Major League Baseball games every year, during a season that is played primarily outdoors at the peak of the U.S. lightning season. In recent years, social media photographs and baseball game television broadcasts have revealed lightning within proximity of several baseball games without the game being delayed. Lightning data from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network within 12.8 km of 9717 Major League Baseball games between 2016 and 2019 were examined to find the extent to which lightning is a threat to games, players, staff, and fans: 717 games were found to have lightning within 12.8 km, with more than 175 000 in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning discharges detected during those games. The distribution of games with lightning was not uniform and is related to the annual average lightning density of each ballpark. Despite the significant risk of a lightning-related incident at Major League Baseball games, existing work from other organizations like the National Collegiate Athletics Association and the National Athletics Trainers Association can be leveraged to improve lightning safety at professional baseball games. Significance Statement Nearly one of every 14 Major League Baseball games has lightning within what lightning safety experts would consider an unsafe distance. The potential for a lightning casualty incident is high because most games are played outdoors and millions of people are at baseball games every year. Although frameworks that can improve lightning safety at the thousands of professional baseball games that are played every year exist, it is unclear how frequently they are implemented.

Foul Ball Rates and Injuries at Major League Baseball Games: A Retrospective Analysis of Data from Three Stadiums.

This paper provides a large-scale, per Major League Baseball (MLB) game analysis of foul ball (FB) injury data and provides estimates of injury frequency and severity. This study's goal was to quantify and describe the rate and type of FB injuries at MLB games. This was a retrospective review of medical care reports for patients evaluated by on-site health care providers (HCPs) over a non-contiguous 11-year period (2005-2016). Data were obtained using Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests. Data were received from three US-based MLB stadiums. The review reported 0.42-0.55 FB injuries per game that were serious enough to warrant presentation at a first aid center. This translated to a patients per 10,000 fans rate (PPTT) of 0.13-0.23. The transport to hospital rate (TTHR) was 0.02-0.39. Frequently, FB injuries required analgesics but were overwhelmingly minor and occurred less often than non-FB traumatic injuries (5.2% versus 42%-49%). However, FB injured fans were more likely to need higher levels of care and transport to hospital (TH) as compared to people suffering other traumatic injuries at the ballpark. Contusions or head injuries were common. Finally, FB injured fans were often hit in the abdomen, upper extremity, face, or head. It was found that FB injuries appeared to increase with time, and this increase in injuries aligns with the sudden increase in popularity of smartphones in the United States. These data suggest that in roughly every two or three MLB games, a foul ball causes a serious enough injury that a fan seeks medical attention. This rate is high enough to warrant attention, but is comparable in frequency to other diagnostic categories. Assessing the risk to fans from FBs remains difficult, but with access to uniform data, researchers could answer persistent questions that would lead to actionable changes and help guide public policy towards safer stadiums.

All-Inclusive v. Partitioned Pricing in Sports: The Effects of Pricing Format on Ticket Purchasers’ Response

Abstract: Sport organizers may employ one of two common pricing strategies—partitioned pricing (PP) and all-inclusive pricing (AIP)—to present the price of the ticket and associated fees to potential consumers. The study examines differences in spectators' price recall, perceived value, and search intentions when purchasing tickets to attend a regular-season Major League Baseball game based on the pricing format experienced (PP v. AIP), as well as the moderating effect of price tier selected, and participants' level of team identification on the impact of the pricing format. Findings point to both theoretical and managerial implications associated with the significant effect that the pricing strategy has on the outcome variables. Although the moderating effect of price tier and team identification were nonsignificant, both variables had a direct influence on the dependent variables considered.

Exploring and Selecting Features to Predict the Next Outcomes of MLB Games.

(1) Background and Objective: Major League Baseball (MLB) is one of the most popular international sport events worldwide. Many people are very interest in the related activities, and they are also curious about the outcome of the next game. There are many factors that affect the outcome of a baseball game, and it is very difficult to predict the outcome of the game precisely. At present, relevant research predicts the accuracy of the next game falls between 55% and 62%. (2) Methods: This research collected MLB game data from 2015 to 2019 and organized a total of 30 datasets for each team to predict the outcome of the next game. The prediction method used includes one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1DCNN) and three machine-learning methods, namely an artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), and logistic regression (LR). (3) Results: The prediction results show that, among the four prediction models, SVM obtains the highest prediction accuracies of 64.25% and 65.75% without feature selection and with feature selection, respectively; and the best AUCs are 0.6495 and 0.6501, respectively. (4) Conclusions: This study used feature selection and optimized parameter combination to increase the prediction performance to around 65%, which surpasses the prediction accuracies when compared to the state-of-the-art works in the literature.

Assessment of Event Quality in Major Spectator Sports: Single-Item Measures

The purpose of this study was to develop measurement scale of event quality in spectator sports - single-item measures (SEQSS-SIM). The reliability and validity of single item measures developed in the current study were tested using the responses from 220 spectators of a Major League Baseball game. Both exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis were conducted along with structural equation modeling. The results indicate that single item measures fairly represent 11 key aspects of sport events. Although scholars addressed the usefulness and necessity of single item measures, this approach has not been explored in the sport event context. Therefore, the current study will contribute methodologically to the measurement of event quality by offering a parsimonious and psychometrically sound scale to measure spectators’ perceived sport event quality. Event managers can use the single-item measures as a convenient diagnostic tool to evaluate spectators’ quality perceptions in an efficient and effective manner.

Baseball Home Field Advantage Without Fans in the Stands

Abstract: Home field advantage is universally accepted across most major sports and levels of competition. However, exact causes of home field advantage have been difficult to disentangle. The COVID-19 pandemic offers a unique, natural experiment to isolate elements related to home field advantage since all 2020 regular season Major League Baseball games were played without fans. Results provide no statistically significant evidence of a difference in home field advantage between the 2019 and 2020 seasons, evidence that home crowd support is not a driver of home field advantage. There does appear to be a statistical advantage by the home team batting second in the inning. Travel fatigue seems to have no impact on home field advantage, and while home field advantage seems to increase throughout the 2020 season, we chalk that up to small sample noise. Despite lacking historical precedence, betting markets seemingly respond efficiently to the new home conditions.

The influence of time, contracts, and audience on investment decisions in Major League Baseball

Attainment discrepancy (AD) studies emphasize situations where management believes options exist to raise performance over aspirations, or where low performance makes survival the relevant aspiration level. Sometimes organizations face performance sufficiently below aspirations that achieving aspirations in the time available becomes unreasonable, even though survival is not at risk. We develop hypotheses regarding the influence of negative AD on investment decisions in such situations, and how time pressures and alternative forms of performance pressure may moderate the influence of negative AD on investment. Using Major League Baseball game data from 2007 to 2016 and measuring investment by use of rookies yields the following results. First, negative AD increases investment. Second, the effect of negative AD on investment increases as time remaining to raise performance above aspirations declines. Third, the final year of a manager’s contract (a second indictor of time remaining to improve performance) and home game attendance (an alternative indicator of performance pressure) diminish the influence of negative discrepancy on investment.

The Conditionality of Outdoor Sports Events on Weather-Induced Impacts and Possible Solution

All over the globe, outdoor sports events are highly affected by weather conditions that frequently influence the comfort of the players and sports fans, the duration, or even the cancelation of the event. To verify the range of weather-induced impacts on selected Major League Baseball events, this interdisciplinary study investigated the causes of unexpected postponements of several Major League Baseball games in March and April 2018, according to official weather reports in the event host destinations. The impact was measured by a recurrent neural network with long short-term memory as an investigation model. Autocorrelation analysis was conducted between all input and target fields. The research focused on the explanation of the influence of weather risks on the event host destinations. Moreover, the study is based on projecting an effective instrument for managing weather risks and then evaluating the tourism services that the future climatic conditions will support. The long short-term memory analysis revealed that solar activity had the greatest influence on the temperature. On the other hand, humidity and air pressure depended very little on solar activity; this finding was confirmed by the zero values of the sensitivity. These values encourage further research on weather disturbances and their connections with outdoor sports and tourism activities.

Exploring the components of brand equity amid declining ticket sales in Major League Baseball

Ticket sales for Major League Baseball (MLB) games are decreasing annually, yet baseball fans have increased team interest and following in other ways. Instead of following from the stands or on television fans are choosing to follow, for example, via social media. The emerging unified theory of brand equity offers a framework to examine the mediating role of attendance and local television and the moderating role of Twitter followers on the relationships between MLB marketing assets (MA) and team financial performance. Publicly available secondary data are analyzed with PLS-SEM. The results indicate attendance and local TV partially mediate the relationship between non-seasonal MA and team financial performance, whereas attendance and local TV fully mediate the relationship between in-season MA and team financial performance. Furthermore, the number of Twitter followers for each MLB team moderates various relationships within the MLB brand equity research model. Findings suggest MLB sales and marketing professionals should design ticket sales initiatives that not only promote attendance in the short-term but, more importantly, build upon non-seasonal sources of team brand equity for the long-term.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1057/s41270-020-00083-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Pre- and within-season attendance forecasting in Major League Baseball: a random forest approach

ABSTRACT This study explores the forecasting of Major League Baseball game ticket sales and identifies important attendance predictors by means of random forests that are grown from classification and regression trees (CART) and conditional inference trees. Unlike previous studies that predict sports demand, I consider different forecasting horizons and only use information that is publicly accessible in advance of a game or season. The models are trained using data from 2013 to 2014 to make predictions for the 2015 regular season. The static within-season approach is complemented by a dynamic month-ahead forecasting strategy. Out-of-sample performance is evaluated for individual teams and tested against different least-squares dummy variable regression models and a naïve lagged attendance forecast. My empirical results show high variation in team-specific prediction accuracy with respect to both models and forecasting horizons. Linear and tree-ensemble models, on average, do not vary substantially in predictive accuracy; however, least-squares regression fails to account for various team-specific peculiarities, despite accounting for team fixed effects and censoring attendance predictions to fit to stadium capacities.

Impacts of Performance-Enhancing Drug Suspensions on the Demand for Major League Baseball

In 2005, Major League Baseball (MLB) introduced a new policy regarding the use of performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) wherein the league would not only suspend but also publicly name any player who tested positive for banned PEDs. Using the estimated television audience size of MLB games from 2006 to 2012, these PED suspension announcements provide a unique natural experiment to test how consumers react to news of PED use. This study finds that PED announcements have two major impacts on the demand for baseball. First, there is on average an immediate 9.3% reduction in the television audience of the PED player’s team. Second, the magnitude of the effect gradually decreases over time yet remains negative and significant for a period of 37 days or approximately 33 game-broadcasts. This is the first study to link PED use to an adverse reaction by consumers in a systematic way using television audience while controlling for the change in team quality caused by removing the suspended player from the team.

Whose Stats are They Anyway? Analyzing the Battle Between Major League Baseball and Fantasy Game Sites

This article provides an in-depth analysis of the ongoing legal battle in C.B.C Distribution & Mktg., Inc. v. Major League Baseball Advanced Media, L.P. and particularly examines the Eastern District of Missouri’s and Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals’ analysis of the right of publicity, the First Amendment, and copyright law. In 2006, the Eastern District Court of Missouri handed down a decision that promised to have a wide-ranging effect on the future of online fantasy sports. In 2007, that decision was affirmed in a divided 2-1 vote by an Appellate Board for the Eighth Circuit. While the district court judge held that players do not have a right of publicity in the names and playing statistics as used in an online fantasy baseball game, the appellate court held that players do in fact have a right of publicity. While the two courts came down differently on this issue, both agreed that even if a right of publicity existed here, the First Amendment trumps that right. District Judge Medler’s decision (affirmed by the Eighth Circuit) has broad reaching implications for the entire genre of fantasy sports operations. The ultimate decision in C.B.C Distribution will go a long way toward determining the course of the multi-billion dollar industry of fantasy sports. Web sites such as ESPN.com and Yahoo.com are able to generate revenue in a variety of ways. Both sites feature stories, advertisements, a variety of games, and other sections of interest. For CBC, its sole source of revenue is its fantasy sports games. The site does not offer other content, stories, or sections that appeal to the masses. Fantasy baseball requires a niche audience that has a fascination with statistics and how a player performs throughout the season. Fantasy baseball is the lifeblood of CBC’s business operation. If the U.S. Supreme Court were to r everse this ruling in favor of Advanced Media, it would initiate a slippery slope, creating a scenario in which a famous person’s name could never be used for entertainment value. Trivial Pursuit, Cranium, and other trivia -based board games use the names of famous people for the purpose of asking questions. Where does the line begin and end with respect to what is considered a legal use of a person’s name? Trivial Pursuit would have to eliminate two entire categories of questions if it was not permissibl e to use names. Two Pop Culture versions are now ma de – they include categories such as movies, TV, sports, and ames. In these versions, players are asked questions on hot gossip, celebrity trivia, and movie information. You cannot have a game based o n popular culture without using the athlete and celebrity names that make up Pop Culture, because the Arts & Entertainment and Sports questions are so heavily based on the use of athlete and celebrity names. Cranium has a new Pop version that asks questions and requires acting out. On an even simpler level, any time you go to the movie theater, trivia questions and scramble puzzles appear on the screen prior to the start of the previews. These questions almost always include the name of a celebrity or athlete. Is every theater across the country licensing the names of these famous folks? It is highly doubtful.