Exploring and Selecting Features to Predict the Next Outcomes of MLB Games.

Abstract

(1) Background and Objective: Major League Baseball (MLB) is one of the most popular international sport events worldwide. Many people are very interest in the related activities, and they are also curious about the outcome of the next game. There are many factors that affect the outcome of a baseball game, and it is very difficult to predict the outcome of the game precisely. At present, relevant research predicts the accuracy of the next game falls between 55% and 62%. (2) Methods: This research collected MLB game data from 2015 to 2019 and organized a total of 30 datasets for each team to predict the outcome of the next game. The prediction method used includes one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1DCNN) and three machine-learning methods, namely an artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), and logistic regression (LR). (3) Results: The prediction results show that, among the four prediction models, SVM obtains the highest prediction accuracies of 64.25% and 65.75% without feature selection and with feature selection, respectively; and the best AUCs are 0.6495 and 0.6501, respectively. (4) Conclusions: This study used feature selection and optimized parameter combination to increase the prediction performance to around 65%, which surpasses the prediction accuracies when compared to the state-of-the-art works in the literature.