Major Export Research Articles

IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH FOREST PRESERVATION IN THE AMAZON AND CERRADO BIOMES IN BRAZIL

Brazil is a major agricultural producer and exporter, with agribusiness accounting for 26.6% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The growth of agriculture is the result of increased agricultural productivity and expansion over native vegetation. Deforestation causes direct and indirect changes in land use and increases in gross greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Brazil has ambitious GHG mitigation and deforestation reduction goals, facing a possible tradeoff between environmental conservation and economic growth. The main objective of this research was to analyze the economic and environmental impacts of “Green Growth” scenarios in the main Brazilian biomes. The model built and used for this analysis, the Brazilian Biomes, Land Use and Emissions Economic Model (BLUME), brings important methodological advances for integrated economic modeling with environmental aspects in Brazil. The results indicate that simulated policies would be able to avoid part of national emissions at a relatively small cost compared to national GDP.

HarvestGRID: high-resolution harvested crop areas of the United States from 1981 to 2019

Abstract The United States is a major producer and exporter of agricultural goods, fulfilling global demands for food, fiber, and fuel while generating substantial economic benefits. Agriculture in the U.S. not only dominates land use but also ranks as the largest water-consuming sector. High-resolution cropland mapping and insights into cultivation trends are essential to enhance sustainable management of land and water resources. Existing data sources present a trade-off between temporal breadth and spatial resolution, leading to gaps in detailed geographic crop distribution. To bridge this gap, we adopted a data-fusion methodology that leverages the advantages of various data sources, including county-level data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, along with several gridded land use datasets. This approach enabled us to create annual maps, termed HarvestGRID, of irrigated and harvested areas for 30 key crops across the U.S. from 1981 to 2019 at a resolution of 2.5 arc minutes. Over the past four decades, irrigated harvested area has remained relatively stable nationally; however, several western states exhibit a declining trend, while some eastern states show an upward trend. Notably, more than 50% of the irrigated land in the U.S. lies above three major aquifers: the High Plains, Central Valley, and Mississippi Embayment Aquifers. We assessed the accuracy of HarvestGRID by comparing it with other large-scale gridded cropland databases, identifying both consistencies and discrepancies across different years, regions, and crops. This dataset is pivotal for analyzing long-term cropland use patterns and supports the advancement of more sustainable agricultural practices.

Total arsenic and inorganic arsenic in Myanmar rice

Myanmar is a major rice exporter. Rice is an important source of nourishment for its population. However, rice can be contaminated with toxic elements, including arsenic, long-term exposure to which has been linked to several illnesses, including cancer. There is a paucity of published data on arsenic in Myanmar rice. This study analysed rice (n=50) from southern, middle and northern Myanmar for both total arsenic (T-As) (by ICP-MS) and inorganic arsenic (i-As) (by species–specific hydride generation ICP-MS or HPLC-ICP-MS). The mean concentration of T-As was 110 μg.kg-1(IQR 75 to 142 μg.kg-1), of which 86 μg.kg-1 (IQR 58 to 113 μg.kg-1) was high toxicity i-As. The calculated mean i-As intake arising from typical consumption of this rice normalised to typical body weights in Myanmar was approximately 1 μg.kg-bw-1.day-1, close to the recently withdrawn WHO, PTWI of 2.1 μg.kg-bw-1.day-1and higher than the EFSA reported BMDL05 for skin cancers of 0.06 μg.kg-bw-1.day-1.

Fertilizer price bubbles and contributing factors: evidence from the Chinese urea fertilizer market

ABSTRACT Recent fertilizer price booms have raised concerns about whether prices reflect market fundamentals. This study examines urea fertilizer price explosiveness (‘bubbles’) in China, a major global producer and exporter, from 2016 to 2023. We identified six episodes of explosiveness, with five occurring during the 2021–2022 boom. Regression analysis reveals that rising coal and corn prices significantly increase the likelihood of price bubbles, while China’s export restrictions significantly reduce it. Additionally, bubble likelihood ratios were lower during the Black Sea Initiative but increased following the implementation of agricultural subsidies. However, the magnitudes of these changes were not economically meaningful.

The environmental and social opportunities of reducing sugar intake

Sugar is the largest agricultural crop by mass and has seen a rapid increase in consumption around the world. There are widespread public health efforts to curb sugar intake through targeted policies given its association with noncommunicable diseases. Although curbing sugar intake aligns with sustainable diets that meet essential environmental and health targets, such a shift may be challenging from a political economy perspective. Utilizing sugar for other purposes such as the production of microbial protein, biofuels, and bioplastics, or using sugar lands to grow other food items, or rewilding could provide health and environmental win–wins that could be more politically palatable. Here, we explore several potential scenarios to illustrate the option space from which national and international stakeholders could choose locally appropriate pathways for alternative utilization of sugar or its lands. While beneficial, such alternative pathways would require the integration of environmental, economic, and health policies to provide a smoother diet transition that reduces stakeholder tensions. Given the trade in sugar as a commodity crop, international approaches that compensate sugar producers for avoided production or incentivize them for redirecting sugars to other uses will be needed. Such approaches could borrow concepts from Just Transition Partnerships that have been applied to energy system transitions in ensuring a transition for major exporters of sugar cash crops across low- and middle-income nations.

Survey of Thrips (Thysanoptera) Associated with Four Berry Crops in Mexico1

Abstract Mexico is one of the major exporters of a variety of berries worldwide. Thrips (Thysanoptera) are highly attracted to berry crops, and several species can become serious pests that limit berry yield. Given the pest status of thrips in berry production and the magnitude and importance of berries for export in Mexico, this study was conducted to survey and identify the thrips fauna associated with commercial berry orchards in Mexico. We sampled berry plants in 41 commercial plantations of blackberry (Rubus spp.), blueberry (Vaccinium spp.), raspberry (Rubus spp.), and strawberry (Fragaria × ananasa) in Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacán, and Sinaloa during spring and summer 2020. Our study collected 4,394 thrips specimens belonging to 19 species of thrips. Of those, 53.7% were collected from blackberry, 16.1% from blueberry, 15.5% from strawberry, and 14.8% from raspberry. The predominant species in the four berry crops was Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande). Its relative abundance with respect to other species of thrips collected was 52.9% in blueberry, 69% in raspberry, 79.6% in blackberry, and 88.7% in strawberry. The second most abundant species was Scirtothrips dorsalis Hood, varying from 2.6% in strawberry to 24.6% in blueberry. Other important phytophagous species recorded were Frankliniella cephalica (Crawford) and Frankliniella gossypiana Hood. These four species are invasive, polyphagous, and widespread in Mexico; thus, economic damage by one or more of these species can be expected in locales where management measures are not appropriately applied to avoid economic losses. Data gathered in this survey, coupled with information provided by related studies conducted in Mexico, should serve as a basis for further research dealing with monitoring and management of thrips populations.

Impact of plant diseases on global food and nutritional security: a strategic theme for Brazil

Plant diseases have a significant impact on global food and nutritional security, and their occurrence has the potential to destabilize economies and create political challenges, as well as affect the health and well-being of populations. Diseases impact the key components of food security (availability, access, utilization, stability), particularly in less developed regions and/or vulnerable populations. The occurrence of plant diseases is exacerbated by factors such as increased global trade, the genetic uniformity of hosts, and climate change, leading to reduced food production, higher prices, and greater dependence on agricultural inputs like pesticides. Brazil, as a major producer and exporter of food, plays a crucial role in global food security. Future prospects for mitigating the negative effects of diseases involve the ongoing pursuit of innovative solutions through investment in research and strengthening global collaboration in disease monitoring and promoting sustainable agricultural practices to tackle this complex challenge.

Strategic insights: Unveiling the potential of Pharmaceutical exports from India to Regulated markets

India is a major exporter of medicinal products in the world. India's pharmaceutical sector has grown significantly to contribute largely to the GDP of the nation because of its rapidly expanding economy and abundance of highly skilled labor. However, exporting pharmaceuticals to markets that are subject to regulations can be a difficult procedure that requires a lot of paperwork. This all-inclusive handbook will assist in navigating the documentation and export regulatory requirements for pharmaceutical exports from India to regulated markets. It also provides export projections for the future, enabling exporters to adapt their export strategy. This handbook will give you the knowledge needed to be successful in the pharmaceutical export business, regardless of whether an experienced exporter or a recent entry into the market. A study on Indian Pharmaceutical Exporter together with future forecasts and SWOT Analysis of Indian Pharmaceutical manufacturers.

The Bitter Taste of Brazil's Temporary Import Ban on Robusta Coffee

ABSTRACTBrazil, a leading Robusta coffee producer and exporter, faced a significant drought in 2016–2017, which drastically reduced production and depleted stocks. Consequently, Brazil temporarily permitted the import of one million 60‐kg bags of Robusta coffee in the spring 2017. An import ban was imposed shortly afterward due to lobbying by domestic Robusta farmers. We examine the welfare and trade impacts of the drought and subsequent import ban on stakeholders in the Robusta bean and soluble coffee markets. The import ban improved the welfare of Brazilian Robusta producers by $174.85–$280.26 million, nearly offsetting the drought's effects. However, it increased unit cost for Brazilian soluble processors by 10% and reduced consumer surplus in Brazil by $108.35–$174.44 million. Deadweight losses remained minimal due to the markets' price inelasticity. Major Robusta exporters faced reduced exports to Brazil and up to 9% lower prices, losing 0.3363–0.7564 million 60‐kg bags. Additionally, foreign consumers of Brazilian soluble coffee lost $62–$107 million in welfare from higher prices. without the import ban, global stakeholders would have seen a $12.61/bag higher world bean price. The drought benefitted Robusta sellers outside Brazil but harmed net importers, even with the ban in place.

Firm-level capabilities and response to a negative export shock: 2014 Russian embargo on the West

This paper investigates the resources and capabilities that determine firm-level adjustments after a sudden unexpected closure of a major export market. We focus on the effects of the 2014 Russian embargo on Western food exporters using the example of Estonian firms. The paper applies a novel multimethod approach consisting of Study I quantifying the embargo effect on the trade diversion of firms that had exported embargoed goods to Russia, and Study II conducting a multiple case study into three dairy exporters highly affected by the embargo. Study I employs a difference-in-difference model with matched exporters of embargoed goods as treatment. Study II builds on extensive document analysis that serves as input for interviews with the CEOs of the sample dairy firms. We find that pre-shock productivity is on average a good predictor of post-shock firm trade diversion (Study I), however, we specify that the key firm-level resources and capabilities necessary for successful post-shock adjustments might not be reflected in the standard quantitative productivity level measures (Study II). We conclude that key firm-level resources and capabilities for embargo-resilience are the quality of exporting experience, competitive product-market matching, absorptive capacity, and managerial vision and empowerment.

The Competitiveness and Export Performance of Indonesian Coffee in The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)

Since its establishment in 1969, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has served as a platform for Islamic countries worldwide to cooperate in various sectors, including economic, social, and cultural. One longstanding form of economic cooperation among OIC countries is in the field of trade. Indonesia, as one of the major producers and exporters of coffee, has engaged in coffee trade with OIC countries, and this cooperation has continued to the present day. This research aims to assess the competitiveness and export performance of Indonesian coffee to OIC using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Constant Market Share (CMS) methods. The results show that Indonesian coffee exports to OIC are competitive but have a declining growth rate. Meanwhile, the export performance of Indonesian coffee to OIC demonstrates good performance in following market distribution trends but shows shortcomings in meeting market preferences. Therefore, enhancing internal trade cooperation within OIC, partnering strategies with competing countries, and measures such as improving technology accessibility and evaluating responsive export policies are necessary.

National and transboundary contributions to surface ozone concentration across European countries

Tropospheric ozone impacts health, climate, and ecosystems. Effective ozone mitigation policies are challenged by limited quantitative understanding of national versus transboundary contributions to surface ozone. This study uses a chemical transport model with a source apportionment algorithm to analyze ozone contributions across Europe from 2015 to 2017 during peak ozone season. We quantify country-level ozone production and imported ozone, distinguishing contributions from 35 European countries, neighboring countries, seas, and hemispheric influences. Results show substantial contributions from outside the 35 European countries, with hemispheric contributions playing a significant role. European contributions are crucial during high ozone episodes, especially from Germany, France, Italy, the UK, Poland, and Spain. Spain, northern Italy, and northwest France are identified as areas where national precursor reductions would be more effective in improving national air quality. Furthermore, 25 of the 35 European countries studied are net importers of cumulative ozone mass, with the Netherlands, Belgium, and the UK acting as major exporters. These findings highlight the need for comprehensive air quality policies and cross-border cooperation.

An Integrated Framework for Estimating Origins and Destinations of Multimodal Multi-Commodity Import and Export Flows Using Multisource Data

Estimating origin-destination (OD) demand is integral to urban, regional, and national freight transportation planning and modeling systems. However, in developing countries, existing studies reveal significant inconsistencies between OD estimates for domestic and import/export commodities derived from interregional input-output (IO) tables and those from regional IO tables. These discrepancies create a significant challenge for properly forecasting the freight demand of regional/interregional multimodal transportation networks. To this end, this study proposes a novel integrated framework for estimating regional and international (import/export) OD freight flows for a set of key commodities that dominate long-distance transportation. The framework leverages multisource data and follows a three-step process. First, a spatial economic model, PECAS activity allocation, is developed to estimate freight OD demand within a specific region. Second, the international (import and export) freight OD is estimated from different zones to foreign countries, including major import and export nodes such as international seaports, using a gravity model with the zone-pair friction obtained from a multimodal transportation model. Third, the OD matrices are converted from monetary value to tonnage and assigned to the multimodal transportation super network using the incremental freight assignment method. The model is calibrated using traffic counts of the highways, railways, and port throughput data. The proposed framework is tested through a case study of the Province of Jiangxi, which is crucial for forecasting freight demand before the planning, design, and operation of the Ganyue Canal. The predictive analytics of the proposed framework demonstrated high validity, where the goodness-of-fit (R2) between the observed and estimated freight flows on specific links for each of the three transport modes was higher than 0.9. This indirectly confirms the efficacy of the model in predicting freight OD demands. The proposed framework is adaptable to other regions and aids practitioners in providing a comprehensive tool for informed decision-making in freight demand modeling.

Indian marine products exports: Growth, instability and geographical diversification

The export of marine products is a significant source of foreign exchange and plays a crucial role in the Indian economy by generating income and employment opportunities. The marine sector contributed 25% (4.13 million t) to the overall fish production in India during the fiscal year 2022-23. The primary objective of this study is to analyse the growth rate, instability, and geographical diversification of marine product exports in terms of both quantity and value. Secondary data related to the major export destinations (Japan, USA, European Union, China, South-East Asia, Middle East and others) and item-wise export (shrimp, finfish, cuttlefish, squid, dried, live, chilled and others) of marine products from India during the period 2000-01 to 2019-20 were collected from the Marine Product Export Development Authority (MPEDA). The growth rate, instability and geographical diversification of exports were estimated using the semi-log regression model, instability index (Ray’s method) and Simpson’s diversity index, respectively. The findings reveal that the overall growth rate of marine product exports over the last two decades was 7.13%. Dry fish exhibited the highest growth rate (15.34%) among all products, and South-East Asia showed the highest growth rate (16.05%) among destinations. However, a significant decline in growth rates of export quantity and value was observed between the two decades for all items, except for frozen shrimp, accompanied by an increase in export instability. The Simpson’s diversity index indicated a significant diversification of 70%, reflecting wide variety of marine products exported as well as the broad range of destination countries. Keywords: Ray’s instability index, Seafood exports, Simpson diversity index, Growth rate

From Ancient Threads to Colonial Commerce: The Evolution of West Bengals Silk Industry from Mythical Origins to Independence

Silk production, or sericulture, has a rich history that is frequently eclipsed by its modern applications. Sericulture began in ancient China approximately 3000 BC and this was a well held secret until it spread to Korea, India and eventually the West through a variety of causes, including royal intrigue and missionary endeavours. By the Han Dynasty, silk had evolved from a luxury item to a valuable economic asset, impacting trade and culture throughout Asia and Europe. India's silk industry, as documented in ancient scriptures, progressed from early wild silk production in the Himalayan foothills to sophisticated mulberry sericulture by the 2nd century BCE. The Mughal dynasty improved Indian silk traditions by incorporating several weaving techniques and nurturing a thriving business in Kashmir and Bengal. From 1612 to 1858, the East India Company capitalised on Bengal's silk potential by building trading centres and using Piedmontese reeling technology to improve quality. Despite initial hurdles, Bengal silk became a major export commodity, but colonial policies and technological shifts eventually led to its demise. Silk output fell dramatically after independence due to a variety of economic and geopolitical issues. This article investigates the growth of India's silk industry, focussing on Bengal's key role and examines the effects of colonial control, technological advancements and the sector's trajectory up to Independence.

Wet Extraction Process and Its Physicochemical Changes in Virgin Coconut Oil

Background: Indonesia is a major exporter of virgin coconut oil (VCO), but global demand surpasses production. Optimizing extraction processes is crucial. Knowledge gap: While various extraction methods exist, the effect of specific parameters on VCO quality and yield needs systematic analysis. Aim: This review evaluates extraction methods to optimize VCO production, focusing on enzymatic and microbial fermentation. Results: From eight articles, enzymatic fermentation using alcalase at 60°C for 1.5 hours produced high-quality VCO (free fatty acids 0.19%, water content 0.04%, peroxide value 8.28 meq/kg) with the highest yield (98.25%). Microbial fermentation, though longer, also yielded good quality. Novelty: Alcalase enzymatic fermentation is more efficient than microbial methods. Implications: These findings can guide industrial optimization of VCO production to meet SNI 7381:2022 standards. Highlights: Enzymatic fermentation with alcalase at 60°C for 1.5 hours yields the highest VCO quality and yield. Microbial fermentation, while effective, requires longer extraction times for similar results. Optimal temperature and time significantly influence the quality and yield of VCO, meeting SNI 7381:2022 standards. Keywords: Correlation, Enzymatic, Fermentation, Temperature, Time

Geographical range extension of two penaeid shrimp Penaeus pulchricaudatus Stebbing, 1914 and Kishinouyepenaeopsis incisa (Wang & Liu in Liu & Wang, 1987) in Bangladesh waters

Shrimps are among the most intriguing groups within the Decapoda order. In Bangladesh, penaeid shrimps hold significant economic value as a major export commodity. This study aimed to analyze the morphometric and molecular characteristics of penaeid shrimps in Bangladesh. Two species of penaeid shrimp, Penaeus pulchricaudatus and Kishinouyepenaeopsis incisa were identified as new records in Bangladesh waters. A distinguishing feature of P. pulchricaudatus is its dark brown transverse bands that do not extend to the lower half of the carapace. The identification of these species was confirmed using both morphometric characteristics and DNA barcoding techniques. Two sequences were generated for these species utilizing the 16S rRNA gene marker. The findings reveal two new records of shrimp species in Bangladesh, expanding the known diversity of shrimp in the region and highlighting the presence of previously undocumented species. Dhaka Univ. J. Biol. Sci. 33(2): 111-117, 2024 (July)

India's growing trade in high-value crops with South Asian countries: Prospects of crop diversification

Despite having no comparative advantage in fruits and vegetables export in the world market, India exhibits a comparative advantage over most South-Asian countries, with the exceptions of Afghanistan and Bhutan. Trade balance index (TBI) showed that vegetables like tomatoes (HS Code 0702), cucumbers and gherkins (HS Code 0707), leguminous vegetables (HS Code 0708) and fruits like bananas (HS Code 0803), citrus (HS Code 0805) and fruits and nuts, provisionally preserved (HS Code 0812), emerged as India's major export vegetables and fruits for the study period. As trade liberalisation and market access for agricultural products expands between countries, there will be a greater need for the country to focus on diversifying its agriculture, particularly by emphasizing the cultivation of fruits and vegetables. Keywords: Comparative advantage, export competitiveness, fruits, vegetables. JEL Codes: F13, F18, Q02, Q17.

The position of Indonesia’s palm oil in the vegetable oil international market

Abstract The increase in global crude oil prices and awareness of energy sustainability are driving the development of the biofuel industry. Palm oil has high productivity and competitive prices compared to other vegetable oils, encouraging competition among major palm oil exporters and significant vegetable oils. The research examines factors influencing Indonesia’s position in the global vegetable oil competition and assesses how economic shocks impact Indonesian palm oil competitiveness. This study utilized the Almost Ideal Demand System model on secondary data in the time series period of 1990-2022. The research results showed that the increase in global income is the most influential factor in the rise in the market share of Indonesian palm oil. The increase in crude oil prices favored the position of Indonesian palm oil compared to Malaysia. Fluctuations in Malaysian palm oil prices could affect the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil. Malaysia’s palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil are more complementary than Indonesia’s. Indonesia needs to collaborate with significant vegetable oil exporters, to create a palm oil commodity exchange, and to synchronize policies from upstream to downstream to ensure the fulfillment of domestic and export palm oil needs.

How far India has succeeded in harnessing its export potential in rice? Evidence Using Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

This study employs the stochastic frontier gravity model (SFGM) to objectively assess the determinants of India’s rice exports from 2001 to 2019 across 22 major export destinations, highlighting untapped export potential and providing actionable policy recommendations for enhancing competitiveness in global rice markets. Results show that India's economic growth (GDP) and the GDP of importing nations positively impact rice exports. Conversely, geographical distances (representing transportation costs) and higher import tariffs act as deterrents. The devaluation of the Indian rupee positively influences export revenues. Common language benefits exports, while regional trade agreements show minimal impact. The study estimates significant untapped export potential between India and its partners, emphasizing the need for improved trade facilitation, logistics, and agreements. To maximize India's rice export potential, policymakers should prioritize quality compliance, streamline regulations, and invest in infrastructure and R&D for rice cultivars. Negotiating favorable trade agreements and implementing existing export policies like the New Agricultural Export Policy will aid market access and competitiveness.