The Bitter Taste of Brazil's Temporary Import Ban on Robusta Coffee

Abstract

ABSTRACTBrazil, a leading Robusta coffee producer and exporter, faced a significant drought in 2016–2017, which drastically reduced production and depleted stocks. Consequently, Brazil temporarily permitted the import of one million 60‐kg bags of Robusta coffee in the spring 2017. An import ban was imposed shortly afterward due to lobbying by domestic Robusta farmers. We examine the welfare and trade impacts of the drought and subsequent import ban on stakeholders in the Robusta bean and soluble coffee markets. The import ban improved the welfare of Brazilian Robusta producers by $174.85–$280.26 million, nearly offsetting the drought's effects. However, it increased unit cost for Brazilian soluble processors by 10% and reduced consumer surplus in Brazil by $108.35–$174.44 million. Deadweight losses remained minimal due to the markets' price inelasticity. Major Robusta exporters faced reduced exports to Brazil and up to 9% lower prices, losing 0.3363–0.7564 million 60‐kg bags. Additionally, foreign consumers of Brazilian soluble coffee lost $62–$107 million in welfare from higher prices. without the import ban, global stakeholders would have seen a $12.61/bag higher world bean price. The drought benefitted Robusta sellers outside Brazil but harmed net importers, even with the ban in place.