Abstract
ABSTRACT Recent fertilizer price booms have raised concerns about whether prices reflect market fundamentals. This study examines urea fertilizer price explosiveness (‘bubbles’) in China, a major global producer and exporter, from 2016 to 2023. We identified six episodes of explosiveness, with five occurring during the 2021–2022 boom. Regression analysis reveals that rising coal and corn prices significantly increase the likelihood of price bubbles, while China’s export restrictions significantly reduce it. Additionally, bubble likelihood ratios were lower during the Black Sea Initiative but increased following the implementation of agricultural subsidies. However, the magnitudes of these changes were not economically meaningful.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
