Major Economies Research Articles

International trade network and stock market connectedness: Evidence from eleven major economies

Depth of cross-country international trade engagement is an important source of (the strength of) stock-market connectedness, depicting how directional attributes of trade determine the magnitude of spillover of stock returns across economies. We premise and test this hypothesis for a group of eleven major economies during 2000 m1-2021 m6 using both system-wide and directional evidence. We exploit the input–output network of Bilgin and Yilmaz (2018) to construct a trade-network, and use Diebold and Yilmaz’s (2009, 2012, 2014) Connectedness Index to proxy for stock-market connectedness among economies. We reveal China’s instrumental role in the trade-network and its rising influence in stock markets dominated by the US. Motivated by the fact that shocks on an economy’s imports and exports may lead to different magnitude of stock market spillover to its trade partner, we further carry out a pairwise directional level investigation. Once the directional dimensions of both the trade flows and the stock market influences are considered, we find that an economy’s stock return spillover to its trade partner is generated from its position as an importer and exporter. More importantly, being an importer is found to be a stronger source of such spillover than being an exporter.

IPO Fund Raising and Chinese Markets IPO Suspension

During the period spanning from 2007 to 2021, China had substantial increase in its Gross Domestic Production (GDP). However, it is noteworthy that this rise was not mirrored by a commensurate expansion in China's A-share market. When examining the performance of China's stock market in relation to other major global economies within the same time frame, it becomes evident that the overall returns of China's stock market are comparatively lower. For example, Standard & Poors 500 increased 236.11%, Nasdaq Composite Index increased 547.75%, the German Stock Index 30 increased 109.99%, and Nikkei Stock Average (Nikkei 225) increased 66.21%, whereas Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index increased 33.41%. Based on the monthly Initial Public Offering (IPO) proceeds of China's stock market from 2007 to 2021, this paper comprehensively examines the impact of IPO activities on China's stock market, including the correlation coefficients among IPO fundraised, index amplitude, index return, and GDP. By studying the correlation between the Chinese All-securities Index (CSI) data and IPO fundraising, as well as exploring the impact of policy changes on the market, it can be concluded that IPO fundraising itself has a limited impact on market returns. The low yield in China's country's stock market might be due to corporate information asymmetry, corporate information fraud, and imperfect supervision. The contributions of this paper include the summary and interpretation of China's IPO and related data, the interpretation of China's IPO reform and other policy actions, and the suggestions for the future development direction of China's market.

IP Laws and Regimes in Major Asian Economies: Combing Through Thousand Threads of IP to Peace in Asia by Kung-Chung Liu. Abingdon: Routledge, 2022. 254 pp. Hardback: £104.00.

IP Laws and Regimes in Major Asian Economies: Combing Through Thousand Threads of IP to Peace in Asia by Kung-Chung Liu. Abingdon: Routledge, 2022. 254 pp. Hardback: £104.00.

China's State Capitalism and International Responses: A Comparative Analysis of Infrastructure Investment Strategies

Abstract: By introducing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), an international infrastructure investment strategy, China attracted a lot of attention. China's approach to state capitalism has opened a window of opportunity for other infrastructure investment strategies. In response, the world's largest and liberally minded economies, such as the United States of America, Japan, and the European Union, have focused on connectivity and embarked on similar strategies. In this article, I conduct a comparative analysis of infrastructure investment strategies. I analyze key tenets of the BRI and international responses through the prism of principles, priorities, funding, financing, governance, and implementation. The comparison of strategies highlights more commonalities than differences, and I identify several instances in which liberal economies act in contradiction to their variety of capitalism. The results suggest that China has opened a window of opportunity for proactive infrastructure investment strategies, and major economies have responded in kind. With overlapping emphases in similar geographic regions, these strategies lead to competition. Consequently, recipient countries profit from an advantageous negotiating position when seeking to attract foreign direct investment in infrastructure projects.

To what extent did US-China trade war affect the global economy

This research paper discusses the impacts on the global economy and international market affected by the US and China trade war, which started in 2018-19. Led by the previous president of the US, Donald Trump, succeeded by the current president Joe Biden, trade protectionism was brought out to restrict Chinese exports to the US. Due to political, social, economic, and many other factors, both US and China ended up imposing additional tariffs on each other’s imports and setting up more and more restrictions on the international market. These imposed trade barriers between the two major economies in the world significantly influenced the two countries themselves, other bystander economies, and the international market balance. The paper discusses and reveals how the economic conflict affects US and China, both consequences and benefits, and how some countries found opportunities from this conflict, and some resulted in losses. Suggestions for possible solutions which each government can take are also being explained.

Explorative cost-effectiveness analysis of colorectal cancer recurrence detection with next-generation sequencing liquid biopsy in Spain, France, and Germany.

Next-generation sequencing liquid biopsy (NGS-LB) for colorectal cancer (CRC) detection and surveillance remains an expensive technology as economies of scale have not yet been realized. Nevertheless, the cost of sequencing has decreased while sensitivity has increased, raising the question of whether cost-effectiveness (CE) has already been achieved from the perspective of European healthcare systems. This health economic (HE) modeling study explores the CE of NGS-LB for CRC based on direct treatment costs compared to standard care without liquid biopsy in Spain, France, and Germany. A structured literature search was used to collect evidence from 2009 to 2020 on the stage-dependent quality of life (quality-adjusted life-years, QALY), efficacy, and total direct treatment costs (TDC) of NGS-LB. A decision-analytic Markov model was developed. Over the remaining lifetime, cumulative life expectancy (LE), TDC, and QALYs were calculated for 60-year-old men and women in CRC stage III with different assumed effects of NGS-LB of 1% or 3% on improved survival and reduced stage progression, respectively. The use of NGS-LB increases LE by 0.19 years in Spanish men (France: 0.19 years, Germany: 0.13 years) and by 0.21 years in Spanish women (France: 0.21 years, Germany: 0.14 years), respectively. The 3% discounted cost per QALY gained was 35,571.95 € for Spanish men (France: 31,705.15 €, Germany: 37,537.68 €) and 35,435.71 € for Spanish women (France: 31,295.57 €, Germany: 38,137.08 €) in the scenario with 3% improved survival and reduced disease progression. Compared to the other two countries, Germany has by far the highest TDC, which can amount to >80k euros in the last treatment year. In this explorative HE modeling study, NGS-LB achieves generally accepted CE levels in CRC treatment from the health system perspective in three major European economies under assumptions of small improvements in cancer recurrence and survival. Confirmation of these findings through clinical trials is encouraged.

Can International Business and Entrepreneurship be the Catalysts for Economic Growth in Africa?

Innovative entrepreneurs are important actors in regional economies of Africa. There are enormous entrepreneurial opportunities in the global markets. The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects for 2023 indicates that the global growth has eased, but remains robust, and is projected to reach 3.1 percent in 2018. Overall, growth in global trade of goods and services combined is expected to moderate to 4.3 percent in 2018, down from a six-year high of 4.8 percent in 2017. This projection has been revised upwards due to stronger-than-expected intra-regional trade growth in Asia and Africa as well as import-demand from major advanced economies. Global trade in goods and services is projected to rise to $27 trillion in 2030 from $10.3 trillion in 2015. Trade as a share of the global economy will increase from 1/4 to 1/3. Roughly half of the increase is likely to come from developing countries that will supply over 65 % of manufactured imports to rich countries, compared with 40% today. Some developing countries are expected to have growth rate over 6%, much higher than developed countries. When trade expands, technologies will rapidly diffuse to developing countries. The dominance of globalization is transferring to China, India and Brazil. The challenge of entrepreneurship is immense in Africa. The entrepreneur’s needs differentiation of exporting and the continent has to create its own regional clusters so as to enhance the competitiveness of its enterprises. Africa may have all the possible comparative advantages in certain industries but what is required is entrepreneurial actions. International business and entrepreneurship appear to be the catalysts for much of the expected economic growth in Africa.

A Correspondence Analysis on Dynamics of Local Gold Price among Major Consumer Economies During the Pre-Covid Period and the Pandemic Period

A Correspondence Analysis on Dynamics of Local Gold Price among Major Consumer Economies During the Pre-Covid Period and the Pandemic Period

The impact of digital trade rule networks on the advancement of global value chains in the Internet era

Abstract In the context of the digital era, global value chains are facing unprecedented reconstruction and upgrading. The development of global trade is influenced by the importance of digital trade in upgrading the status of global value chains. Based on the research of digital trade and global value chain theory, we construct a mechanism model of digital trade to enhance the status of the global value chain and measure digital trade and global value chain by combining the multi-indicator panel hierarchical factor analysis method and the trade value-added accounting method, respectively. Benchmark regression analysis of digital trade and global value chain status indices of major economies is used to explore the impact of digital trade on the status of global value chains. There is a positive correlation between the level of digital trade and the GVC status index, with the GVC status index increasing by 1.6 percentage points for every 1 percentage point increase in the level of digital trade. The level of digital trade has a positive impact on the GVC position of both developed and developing economies. For every 1% increase in the level of digital trade, the GVC position index of developed and developing economies increases by 2.5% and 1.7%, respectively.

POST COVID-19 AND THE ROLE OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION IN THE DELIVERY OF GOOD GOVERNANCE IN LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA

The recent (2019-2022) Corona Virus Disease (technically addressed as COVID-19) presents many developmental dysfunctions across major economies of the world especially among the under developed and developing nations of Africa. Apart from its debilitating effects on the socio-economic life of the citizens which precipitated a "new normal" of social order, governmental efficiency in terms of infrastructural provisions for aiding economic and healthcare delivery, were elastically stretched. This calls to question the public service capacity and delivery mechanisms of most governments in addressing critical emergency cases.

Do Crude Oil Price Fluctuations Affect the Sectoral Stock Returns: Evidence from India

Crude oil is a vital energy source for industrialised and developing countries. Both investors who trade crude oil derivatives and firms that use oil as raw material for production monitor oil supply and demand. Disruption in the flow of oil in the commodity markets, therefore, leads to oil price volatility that affects major economies worldwide. Often, geopolitical and natural conditions could adversely impact the oil price and the financial markets react to such fluctuations in oil prices. This paper analyses the effects of oil price changes on sectorial stock returns in India. Using daily returns of S&P BSE Sensex, S&P BSE Oil & Gas and S&P BSE-Auto sectoral indices from January 2000 to March 2020, we examined the impact of Brent crude oil price fluctuations on the two major sectorial stock indices and overall market index. The results of the Granger causality test show significant results on S&P BSE-Sensex and S&P BSE-Oil and Gas Index Returns except S&P BSE-Auto Index Returns. Further for contemporaneous association between the oil price changes and sectorial returns, we operationalised the simple regression analysis. The results from the regression analysis show statistically significant impact of crude oil price fluctuations on the sectorial returns.

BIS-PBC research: The Impact of Efforts by Chinese Government Around the “international Circulation” of Dual Circulation Strategy on Chinese Economy and other Major Economies Applying China Microeconomic & Financial CGE Model

BIS-PBC research: The Impact of Efforts by Chinese Government Around the “international Circulation” of Dual Circulation Strategy on Chinese Economy and other Major Economies Applying China Microeconomic & Financial CGE Model

Вплив цифрових валют центральних банків на міжнародну фінансову систему

The aim of the article is to study the impact of digital currencies of central banks on the international financial system in modern conditions. The article defines that the central bank digital currency (CBDC) is an electronic form of the national currency, which is created and controlled by the central bank and is implemented in various formats, including retail and wholesale options, as well as on the basis of accounts or tokens, using digital ledgers, with the possible application of technologies such as blockchain. CBDC is a central bank commitment and can be used to make payments, store value, and other financial transactions, while enabling fast, secure, and cost-effective transactions for consumers and businesses. The main directions of influence of digital currencies of central banks on the international financial system are considered and defined. A study of the advantages and disadvantages of the CBDC issue has been carried out. It is emphasized that digital currencies have a significant number of advantages and a significant impact on global financial markets due to their unique properties, despite a number of risks they entail. Based on this, the most popular private digital currencies in 2024 and their direct impact on the international financial system are determined. Their market capitalization is also determined. Based on this, it is emphasized that private digital currencies play a significant role in the development of the global financial system, stimulating innovation and increasing the efficiency and accessibility of financial services. Exactly these currencies have become the main driving force for the creation of central bank digital currencies. The authors consider digital currencies of central banks of different countries, characterizing the most popular ones in 2024. Thus, the market share of these currencies is determined, which shows how the major economies of the world are actively developing their digital currencies to maintain economic stability and strengthen their position in the global financial system. It is emphasized that Ukraine also continues to work on the launch of its central bank digital currency – the e-hryvnia. A number of challenges and prospects posed by the introduction of central bank digital currencies for the international financial system are identified.

Analysis of the Prosperity Performances of G7 Countries: An Application of the LOPCOW-based CRADIS Method

The prosperity policies and strategies of major economies have the potential to significantly influence both the global economy and the prosperity of other nations. Therefore, the assessment of the prosperity performance of major economies holds paramount importance. In this context, the primary aim of this research is to evaluate the prosperity performance of G7 countries using the LOPCOW-based CRADIS method, leveraging sub-component values from the Legatum Prosperity Index. The secondary objective is to examine the relationship between a country's prosperity performance assessed through the LOPCOW-based CRADIS method and its quantifiability within the Legatum Prosperity Index (LPI) framework, as well as its associations with other Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methodologies. The findings reveal the ranking of countries' prosperity performance as follows: Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, the United States, France, and Italy. Additionally, an assessment of the average prosperity performance of these countries highlights that the United States, France, and Italy perform below the established average. Consequently, it is imperative for these nations to enhance their prosperity performance to make a more substantial contribution to the global economy. Furthermore, sensitivity and discrimination analysis suggest that countries' prosperity performance can be quantified within the LPI framework. Another noteworthy observation is the strong resemblance of the LOPCOW-based CRADIS method to the MEREC-based CRADIS and the LOPCOW-based MARCOS methods

Gorzów Wielkopolski As an Attractive Location for an Innovative River Port Equipped With a Sustainable Energy Security System

The role of inland navigation in the global logistics system is gaining significance. This process is stimulated by policies implemented by major economies and international organizations such as the European Union. The objective is to achieve sustainability in transportation by exploring alternatives to conventional infrastructure. These initiatives also extend to tourism and recreation associated with inland navigation. This article presents the results of an analysis related to the location of a tourist river port, considering optimized benefits and developmental opportunities. An interesting location meeting these criteria, as well as possessing scenic, cultural, ecological, and environmental values, is Gorzów Wielkopolski. In the second part of the article, the authors propose a concept for a sustainable energy system that meets the requirements of port operations and customer demands in an era of rapidly advancing technology and increased emphasis on environmental protection.

Investigating the Barriers to Electric Vehicle Adoption among Older Adults using Grey Relational Analysis: A Cross-country Survey

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is a critical step towards the achievement of sustainable transportation, mitigated environmental challenges, and reduction in dependence on fossil fuels. In recent years, the popularity of EVs has grown, yet their adoption among seniors (older adults aged 50 and above) remains a challenge. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the barriers to EV adoption among seniors in two major economies, China and Russia. These two major economies have vast territories and significant transportation demands and as such they play crucial roles in the global shift towards EV adoption. We collected data from Russian and Chinese senior citizens using a comprehensive drafted questionnaire (252 respondents). Also, the Dynamic Grey Relational Analysis (DGRA) is used to analyze the quantitative data and rank the barriers to EV adoption. Our results suggest the inability of seniors to smartly locate available charging stations as the barrier to adopting EVs in China, while the lack of charging infrastructure at home is identified as the main barrier for seniors in Russia. Our findings provide valuable insights for manufacturers, technology firms, and policymakers, in the ongoing promotion of electric mobility.

Natural resources-financial innovation-carbon neutrality nexus: The role of policy robustness

This study sought to investigate the impact of a natural resources, financial innovation, and policy robustness on carbon neutrality of a nation. Cross-country data from 6 major Asian economies: China, Malaysia, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Japan, from 2010 to 2020, were drawn for the analysis. This study employed the Westerlund panel cointegration approach to examine the long term relationship among the variables. Three models were developed and analyzed keeping CO2 emissions, natural resources, and financial innovation as dependent variables. Our findings of model-1 revealed that abundant natural resources and increase financial innovation are linked to lower carbon emissions. Policy robustness plays a significant role in reducing carbon emissions, highlighting the importance of strong environmental policies for sustainable development. However, economic growth is associated with higher carbon emissions, suggesting the need to manage growth sustainably. As economies expand, the consumption of natural resources also increases, indicating the necessity for strategies to decouple economic growth from resource use. In the model-2, GDP positively influences the exploitation of natural resources, emphasizing the need for sustainable practices. In the model-3, financial innovation is positively related to carbon emissions, indicating the potential for innovative financial instruments in emissions mitigation. Conversely, a negative relationship between natural resources and financial innovation suggest the importance of sustainable financial practices. This study stresses the complexity of factors influencing environmental sustainability and calls for comprehensive research. It underscores the significance of combining economic development with sustainable resource use, innovative financial practices, and robust policy frameworks to foster environmental sustainability in the Asian context.

The path to global climate justice: From the perspective of regional discrepancy in embodied carbon emissions

Achieving climate justice is an important goal and basic principle of global climate governance. This paper evaluates the progress of achieving global climate justice by quantitatively depicting the evolution characteristics, group differences and driving factors of global embodied carbon emissions. The results indicate that the phenomenon of embodied carbon inequality is more obvious. Furthermore, a data-driven clustering algorithm is adopted to divide the world's major economies into four convergence clubs based on the embodied carbon emissions levels. We find that the embodied carbon emissions gap between different clubs has widened since 2008, which may be related to the re-industrialization of developed countries. The results of SDA analysis indicate that the embodied carbon emissions of developed countries, such as the United States, are more driven by per capita end-use. On the contrary, unclean consumption and investment structure is the main driving force for the increase of embodied carbon emissions in developing countries such as China. Therefore, efforts should be made in developing countries on the clean adjustment of consumption and investment structure to promote the convergence of embodied carbon emissions with developed countries.

NON-LINEAR EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE ON OIL PALM YIELD: A NOTE BASED ON PANEL THRESHOLD ANALYSIS

The effect of climate change on agriculture and food production has emerged as one of the major concerns of major global economies, especially given that the global population is projected to reach 10.9 billion people by the end of the 21st century (United Nations, 2019). Crops react differently to climate change and hence it is crucial to understand its effect on specific agricultural plants. Specifically, the impact of climate change on agriculture yield may not be linear. As such, this study investigated the impact of climate factors on oil palm yield using state level data from Malaysia. The results suggested that temperature and oil palm yield have a non-linear inverted U-shaped relationship. In addition, rainfall has a positive impact on oil palm yield.

ARRA TISHLARIDAN PAXTA TOLASINI YECHIB OLISH JARAYONI PARAMETRLARINI ILMIY ASOSLASH

This paper scrutinizes the process of extracting or separating fiber from seed, which is viewed as one of the milestones in cotton-ginning plants, reviews a series of implemented experiments, presents results, and offers solutions. Increasing demand for cotton produce across the globe leads to large-scale research work to improve the technique and technology of primary cotton processing and to establish their scientific basis in major cotton-growing economies. In this regard, it is becoming important, among other things, to develop mathematical models of processes, boost the productivity of cotton processing machines by means of optimization methods, create efficient working bodies, preserve natural quality indicators of the cotton fiber obtained through improved operational characteristics of machines, and reduce production costs. At the same time, the issues of the development of resource efficient designs of working bodies that won’t negatively affect the quality of products and the justification of the parameters of the sewing machine seem relevant for all cotton-growing economies.