Main Trading Partners Research Articles

Євроінтеграція України – ключові перепони та вимоги

The article discusses the problems of Ukraine's European integration. The authors provide a short list of agreements between the EU and Kyiv. They list the problems facing Ukraine on the way to accession. The main one is the war with Russia. The unresolved problems listed include the fight against corruption and reforms of the judiciary and economy. The authors note the attitudes of Ukrainians and EU citizens towards Kyiv's accession to the European Union, its achievements, and analyses the synchronisation of legislation with the European one. A brief overview of the EU’s problems, such as the problems caused by the disappearance of Russian energy supplies and the Ukrainian refugee crisis, is given. The article also analyses economic cooperation between the EU and Ukraine. The EU is Ukraine’s main trading partner and its role is increasing. It is the economic basis of European integration. However, the ongoing war in Ukraine is an obstacle to investment from the EU and accession to the Union.

The Political Economy of Economic Cooperation: The Case of Indonesia in Finding New Non-Traditional Markets

Indonesia strives to achieve its goals of becoming a developed country by 2045 as stated in the Indonesia’s Dream 2015-2085, the most influential country in the Asia Pacific region, and to become a barometer of world economic growth. One of the strategies implemented by the Indonesian government to achieve those dreams is to open new economic cooperation in new non-traditional markets or countries that were not previously Indonesia's main trading partners. This research uses a national interest approach through descriptive research and a qualitative approach with data sources of literature studies from books, journals, and research reports that support the search for the analysis result. This study explains how the opening of new cooperation is carried out to achieve Indonesia's national interests, both economic interests to become a developed country by 2045 and political interests to affirm Indonesia's position within the framework of South-South cooperation. This research found that opening new economic cooperation can help Indonesia achieve its goal of becoming a developed country by 2045 and position Indonesia's political position as an important actor in promoting South-South cooperation.

An Analysis of Factors Influencing African Indigenous Vegetable Farmers’ Bargaining Power: A Case Study from Zambia

Growing African Indigenous Vegetables (AIVs) is an innovative way to address poverty and malnutrition problems in Zambia. Farmers’ bargaining power plays an important role in increasing AIV production and farmers' income. Based on 300 responses from Zambian AIV farmers, we define AIV farmers’ bargaining power and analyze its benefits to farmers and the AIVs industry. We used the ordered logistic regression model (OLRM) to analyze the influences of several factors that contribute to farmers’ bargaining power. Three key results and innovations arose from the analysis of the data. First, we define farmers’ bargaining power through their self-reported bargaining power. Second, we find that the respondents’ bargaining power is significantly influenced by seven variables: age, gender, education, main trading partners, awareness of AIVs prices, and distance to the market from the farm. Last, farmers' bargaining power can be improved through education, especially women’s education level, strengthening farmers' organization construction, altering some of the farmers' trading methods, and developing infrastructure.

The characteristic and potential of green trade between China and regional comprehensive economic partnership countries

This paper analyze the characteristics of green trade between China and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) countries from 2001 to 2020, and then adopts a stochastic frontier gravity (SFG) model and trade inefficiency (TIE) model to analyze the trade potential and the influencing factors of green trade between China and RCEP countries. The main conclusions are as follows: the green trade value continues to grow, with Japan and South Korea as the main green trade partners. The competitive advantage of Chinese green products and the complementarity of RCEP countries towards Chinese green products are both increasing. Per capita GDP, population of RCEP countries promote the green trade, while the geographical distance hinders green trade. In the item of TIE, governance ability and economic freedom promote the efficiency of green trade, while differences in environmental regulation and tariff rate hinders trade efficiency. At present, China has significant green trade potential with RCEP countries. The efficiency of green trade between China and Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, and Australia is relatively low. China should actively tap into the demand for green trade and further develop the potential of green trade.

The nexus between COVID-19 and finfish export from Sri Lanka to its main trading partners; the United States and the European Union

The Sri Lankan seafood sector has been seriously disturbed during the Covid 19 pandemic due to a bleak demand outlook as well as an array of supply challenges. Identification of the effects of this new challenge to the global fish trade is critical to take actions to sustain the market and manage resilience in such uncertain periods. Study aims to assess the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on Sri Lanka's finfish exports to its key trading partners, the United States of America (USA) and the European Union (EU). The time series data were gathered from the United Nations commodity trade database between January 2017 and December 2022. Study used structural break point analysis of time series data, followed by time series regression with the Covid-19 impact as a dummy variable using EVIEWS statistical software. Compared to 2019, total finfish exports to the United States dropped by 56.5% in 2020 and 72.5% in 2021 while finfish exports to European market increased by 7% and 28% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The Covid-19 dummy was statistically significant in the time series regression, with a coefficient value of -71.93 in USA trade flow which implies that Covid-19 has a negative impact on finfish trade to the USA. In contrast, statistically significant impact was not found in finfish trade to the EU during the pandemic and this mainly because European seafood market impacted due to Covid-19 yet imports from developing countries fell slightly and overall demand for seafood has remained largely stable throughout 2020. However, study suggested that future research should focus on the country-specific product sensitivity at the individual product level.

ANALISIS PERAMALAN EKSPOR BESI ATAU BAJA DARI INDONESIA KE SINGAPURA DENGAN METODE TIME SERIES

Exporting iron or steel is a crucial sector for Indonesia's economy, and Singapore is one of its main trading partners in terms of exporting these products. In order to optimize the performance of iron or steel exports to Singapore, a deep understanding of the trends and patterns present in export data is necessary. Therefore, forecasting analysis using time series methods is highly relevant and required. The methodology used in this study is a descriptive-analytical method with data collection from secondary sources. The population consists of iron or steel exports from Indonesia to Singapore, with a sample comprising export data from 2017 to 2021, and the sample determination technique uses the purposive sampling method. The data analysis techniques used are descriptive statistical methods and time series forecasting. The research results indicate that the export of iron or steel from Indonesia to Singapore has shown a positive trend over the past five years, influenced by factors such as strong demand, resource availability, developing infrastructure, product quality, and so on. Based on the forecasting analysis, it is estimated that the demand for iron or steel from Indonesia to Singapore in the coming years will continue to increase. The findings of this research provide valuable insights for the players in the iron or steel industry in Indonesia, especially exporters and stakeholders in the supply chain. With accurate forecasting, production and delivery planning can be optimized, market trends can be identified, and demand fluctuations in Singapore can be anticipated.

The effect of non-tariff measures (NTMS) on Indonesian pulp and paper exports

<span lang="EN-US">Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) are likely applied by some major trading countries. The NTM policy mostly applies Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) and Technical Barrier to Trade (TBT). Pulp and Paper commodities are some of Indonesia’s potential exports facing NTM barriers by a number of major destinations countries. This study is aimed to evaluate the effects of NTMs upon Indonesian pulp and paper export in the main destinations. NTMs are represented by coverage ratio of SPS and coverage ratio of TBT. The effect of NTMs imposition to pulp and paper between Indonesia and its main trade partners is estimated by using a panel data gravity model that is constructed by disaggregated data on bilateral export trade flow of pulp and paper between Indonesia and its main trade partners for the period from 2005 to 2019. The gravity model is estimated by a fixed effects model, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood, and Hausman Taylor model. The results indicated that the imposition of SPS and TBT of destination countries presented a positive and significant impact upon the Indonesian export of pulp. However, the imposition of SPS and TBT of destination countries presented a negative and significant impact upon the Indonesian export of paper.</span>

Specifics of customs relations of Ukraine with european trading partners

Methods. The results of the study are obtained by applying the methods of synthesis and generalisation to study the legislative and practical aspects of customs cooperation, as well as to highlight the prospects for cooperation between Ukraine and the European Union in the field of trade. In order to scientifically address the identified issues, the author also used the methods of analysis and comparison to study the dynamics of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods with certain EU countries; and the abstract and logical method to formulate conclusions. Results. The study analyses Ukraine's foreign trade and customs relations with the European Union. In particular, the dynamics of foreign trade in goods is analysed and the volumes of exports and imports with different EU countries are compared. The study considers both legislative and practical aspects of customs cooperation between Ukraine and the European Union. Novelty. As a result of the analysis of Ukraine’s customs relations with its main trading partner countries of the European Union, it is found that the current stage of implementation of Ukraine’s customs policy is marked by a constant increase in international trade and the complexity of trade processes. The advantages and challenges faced by Ukraine in expanding and improving trade relations with the European Union are identified. Practical value. The study is of practical importance for Ukraine’s economic development in the context of European integration. By analysing trade and economic relations between Ukraine and the European Union, the key aspects of Ukraine’s accession to the free trade area with the EU are identified and its results are revealed. The impact of the Russian aggression on foreign trade and customs relations with the EU is studied. The approximation of Ukrainian legislation to EU standards is identified as a key factor that will contribute to the effective implementation of customs policy and create a favourable environment for improving trade processes, taking into account active cooperation with European partners.

India’s Strategy in Reducing Palm Oil Import and Its Impacts to Bilateral Trade with Indonesia

This article tries to analyze the strategy of Indian government in reducing its trade deficit through the import reduction of several main commodities including the palm oil. This research also seeks the impacts of the palm oil reduction in India towards India-Indonesia bilateral trade, as Indonesia is one of India’s main trade partners and largest exporter of palm oil to India. This research used literature study within content analysis to find the bilateral trade between India and Indonesia, also the impacts of India palm oil import’s reduction. The main data of research are secondary data from trusted and reputable news relating India palm oil imports from Indonesia. The result of study found that Indonesia needs to pursue efforts of trade diplomacy effectively so that the Indian strategy to cut imports will not be too impactful to the performance of its exports to India. This research enriches literature study about bilateral trade especially in India-Indonesia palm oil context. In practical implication, this research bring any recommendation to related stakeholder about bilateral trade strategy taken by Indonesian government.

Trends in the Development of US–China Relations After the 2020 Presidential Election in the Context of the Information and Political Discourse of American Elites

In a short period, from 2016 to 2020, China has transformed from the main trade and economic partner of the United States, during the years of Barack Obama’s presidency, to one of the leading opponents of the US administration. This article analyses the reasons for the growing tension in US–China relations and the trade war as the apogee of this confrontation considers the discourse of American political elites in the media regarding China’s participation and role in the demarcation between states and assesses the prospects of relations between the two countries under the Democratic administration of Joe Biden, with a focus on the information agenda in the United States. The quantitative results of the topic modelling analysis show that the ongoing ideological shift of discourse from the Democrats and lack of any discussion of trade negotiations resulted in 2022 demonstrate that the shift from the economic sphere to ideology has been completed. The tensions between China and the United States have transferred to the political-diplomatic stage with a new danger for the United States and NATO interests coming to the surface—Russia and its policy in Eastern Europe.

Trade efficiency under FTA for Thailand’s agricultural exports: copula-based gravity stochastic frontier model

This study investigated the trade efficiency and trade effects under Free Trade Agreements for Thailand’s agricultural exports. There are five main trading partners comprising China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and India. The important agricultural commodities of rubber, cassava, fruits, vegetables, and herbs were assessed from 1998 to 2019. In a traditional stochastic frontier model the two error components of symmetric noise ({nu }_{j}) and a non-negative inefficiency ({u}_{j}) are assumed to be independent. This may result in invalid inferences due to misspecification. To address this obstacle, copula-based Gravity Stochastic Frontier Models (GSFM) using panel criteria were constructed to estimate trade efficiency. Empirically, the Student-t copula-based SFM minimizes both AIC and BIC. According to their mean TE, China (0.48) and Japan (0.48) had the highest export efficiencies followed by India (0.41), New Zealand (0.39), and Australia (0.33) in rank order. Hence, Thailand should pursue more FTA negotiations with the trading partners. Moreover, they should promote miscellaneous behind-the-border barriers to stimulate flows of goods to enhance the country’s trade efficiency substantially.

Handicraft Sector in India: An Instrument for Rural Economic Growth and Women Empowerment

Nowadays, the Indian government is paying more attention to handicraft products and promoting handicraft artisans. Indian handicraft has so much potential to generate employment and income. Data is used from the 3rd and 4th handloom census and the Export Promotion Council of Handicraft (EPCH). This paper tries to explore the workforce participation of handloom workers and the export performance of handicraft products. A major finding in this paper is that Indian handicrafts is rural and women-based industries. About 25 lakh women and 27 lakh rural workers are engaged out of 31 lakh workers. Major contributing states are Assam, West Bengal, Manipur, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. Also, observed that worker engagement has risen over decades. In 2021, a total of 4.3 billion US dollars in handicraft products were exported from India. The USA is the main trading partner of handicraft products. And it also shows that the share of export of every handicraft product has increased in past years, therefore, we can undoubtedly say that Indian handicraft is the future of the world handicraft market, especially in the aspect of employment and income. Hence, it concludes that Indian handicraft industries are instruments of rural growth and women empowerment.

Prospects for Trade Cooperation between Russian Regions and the Countries of the African Continental Free Trade Area (on the Example of the Kursk Region)

Relevance. In modern conditions, in the interaction of Russia with foreign partners, there are trends towards changing traditional global value chains and changing logistics directions. In this connection, Russia needs to address the issue of expanding trade cooperation with new partners and the formation of more sustainable value chains.The purpose is identifying and evaluating the main foreign trade indicators that affect the cooperation of Russia and its regions with the countries of the African Continental Free Trade Area.Objectives: to analyze the volume and structure of Russia's foreign trade turnover with the countries of the African Continental Free Trade Area; determine the conditions that can contribute to the expansion of Russia's partnership with the countries of the African Continental Free Trade Area; to propose directions for the development of foreign trade relations between the regions of Russia and the countries of the African Continental Free Trade Zone (on the example of the Kursk region).Methodology. The study is based on the statistical collection and analysis of information on the volume, structure and dynamics of foreign trade with the countries of the African Continental Free Trade Area.Results. The analysis of the main indicators characterizing the mutual foreign trade of Russia and its regions with the countries of the African Continental Free Trade Area has been carried out. The main trading partners among African countries and the conditions for expanding partnerships with them have been identified.Conclusions. It is concluded that the countries of the African continental free trade zone are the main market for certain types of domestic agricultural products of the extractive and manufacturing industries, and Russian enterprises receive the raw materials they need from African countries. At the same time, the expansion of Russia's trade relations with African countries will be facilitated by the conclusion of agreements on the creation of free trade zones, primarily with Egypt, as the main trading partner.

U.S. TRADE STRATEGY (1913-1930): THE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STRUCTURE

This new situation regarding the transformation of the international economic structure from hegemony to bilateral opportunism has substantially modified the American trade strategy. While the United States had relied on the security provided by Britain’s hegemonic leadership in the past, it was becoming necessary to adapt to the mixed interests of its main trading partner. These new constraints, manifested primarily in domestic political discourse as a fear of foreign retaliation for continued protectionism, led to the accommodative trade strategy adopted in 1913 and followed through the late 1920s. The United States therefore responded with freer trade policy of the Underwood Act as Britain’s position gradually evolved within the international economic structure before the First World War. The war drastically disrupted centuries-old patterns of trade flows: money and investment, and created significant political problems that generated widespread international economic instability. As expected, both Britain and the United States adopted higher but still restricted levels of protection in the wake of the war, and Anglo-American cooperation still proved difficult. The trade strategy of the United States was also affected by the level of international economic instability generated by the fear of retaliation, rooted in the structure of bilateral opportunism, which restrained the levels of American tariffs.

Forecasting methodologies for development of foreign markets of agricultural and food products of the Republic of Belarus

The strengthening of external factors and emerging crises of 2020–2022 related to the global epidemiological situation of COVID-19 and trade barriers, had a significant impact on the timely execution of foreign trade contracts, the efficiency of supply chains, environment of the global food market and the market for inputs for production agricultural products and food. At the same time, the unprecedented sanctions policy against the Republic of Belarus required a more sustainable agri-food system and the development of fundamentally new scientifically substantiated directions for diversifying export supplies. Step-by-step methodology has been developed for forecasting the development of foreign markets for agri-food products, which is a set of goals, objectives, an algorithm for conducting and an analytical product based on Microsoft Excel analysis tools, based on a set of factors impacting the trading process. In addition, a system of economic indicators for assessing the functioning of food markets and mechanisms for product access, including customs-tariff and non-tariff measures, has been substantiated. The methodology was tested based on example of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as the main trading partners of the Republic of Belarus, as well as the countries of Asia (Vietnam, Iran, China, Singapore) and Africa (Algeria, Egypt). The scientific novelty of the development lies in using a step-by-step algorithm for assessing the market situation of a particular country when making rational management decisions on the effective use of the existing potential and resources of agro-industrial complex organizations in order to enter existing and new markets (segments). These developments can be used by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Republic of Belarus, the “Belgospischeprom” concern and other subjects of the agricultural business in preparation of analytical reviews of the country’s market environments for agricultural and food products.

Еconomic development of the United Republic of Tanzania

Achieving balanced economic growth is one of the priorities of governments in developing countries. This is especially relevant for certain African countries that have such characteristics as a favorable geographical location and considerable demographic resource. The policy of the United Republic of Tanzania is an example of successful strategy, since the country not only demonstrates a dynamic growth of GDP, but also competes for regional leadership with neighboring Kenya. The object is the economic policy of Tanzania, while the subject is represented by national interests, resources, and the tools of management of processes of national economic growth. Because of this the article aims at establishing comparative advantages of Tanzania and the peculiarities of its economic advancement. The system approach is used in the article, since it analyzes the economic policy as the set of elements that interact with each other. It was found that Tanzania is a strategic player in East Africa in terms of logistics that at the same time enjoys an appropriate tourism potential, represented by Mount Kilimanjaro, the national parks of international importance, and the popular islands in the Indian Ocean. The basis of the national economic strategy is the focus on transport and tourist services, which can be considered rather unusual for the African continent. At the same time, Tanzania is trying to effectively use its opportunities in the fields of agriculture and mining industry and is also actively developing transport infrastructure in order to become a logistics hub in the region. Moreover, the country is taking steps to exploit the commercial reserves of oil and natural gas. Tanzania’s foreign economic ties play an important role. This state actor has Chinese orientation since Beijing is its main trading partner and a major investor in infrastructure projects. Tanzanian political elite is also actively diversifying its contacts by deepening the cooperation with Türkiye. The complex of these factors helps to ensure balanced economic development, as well as to gain certain advantages in the competition with Kenya for the leadership in the East African region.

Role of Customs and Tariff Regulation in Foreign Trade with China (by the Example of Regions of the Siberian Federal District)

The current situation in the world dictates new rules for conducting foreign economic cooperation for Russia. Russia has fully deployed the vector of cooperation to the East. Over the past decades, China has been the main trading partner in this direction. The article analyzes the foreign trade of the regions of the Siberian Federal District with China. The subjects of the Siberian Federal District are strategically important territories for foreign economic transactions due to their geographical location and economic potential. The regions of the Siberian Federal District, according to their commodity specialization, deliver to China: timber, products of the fuel and energy complex, food products and agricultural raw materials. China imports machinery and equipment, products of the chemical industry to the regions of the Siberian Federal District. Given the desire of our state to increase the share of exports of value-added products, the role of customs and tariff regulation in achieving these goals is highlighted. So, using the example of the export of the commodity group "Wood and pulp and paper products" to China by the regions of the Siberian Federal District and the level of export customs duties, it is shown that there has been a redistribution in the commodity structure of timber exports from unprocessed timber in favor of processed. An analysis of China's weighted average import tariff rate showed that the principle of tariff escalation is applied to Russia: rates are low for raw materials, and high for value-added products. At the same time, the level of the weighted average import tariff rate in relation to Russia for many commodity items is lower than in relation to the whole world. It is proposed to increase the volume of production and supply of consumer goods and agricultural products, taking into account the solution of logistical problems.

Credit For Export Bow Penetration: Catalyzing A Breakthrough In The International Trade Sector

International trade, especially through exports, can certainly be an alternative to overcome the various uncertainties that arise due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, in boosting Indonesia's export performance, Indonesia is still faced with the main problem, the narrowness of the export destination market is also a problem that makes Indonesia very dependent on the economic conditions of the main trading partner countries. Credit for Export Penetration is mainly a loan provided to finance export activities to non-traditional markets. Credit for Export Penetration also utilizes collaboration across stakeholders including the Ministry of Trade, Ministry of Industry, trade attache, and ITPC.

EXPORT-IMPORT COMMODITY FLOWS OF TEXTILE AND CLOTHES OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS: BALANCE ANALYSIS AND DETERMINATION OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SIDES

The article analyzes the export-import flows of goods of textiles and clothing in Belarus in the areas of trade: on the one hand, with the countries - members of the EAEU, on the other hand, with countries outside the EAEU. The results of a comparative study of the dynamics and changes in the structure of foreign trade indicators in the context of commodity groups, goods and main foreign trade partners are presented. The author noted the factors and causes that have a negative impact on the dynamics of the balance of development of foreign trade in Belarusian goods of textiles and clothing. The positive and negative aspects of foreign trade in goods of textiles and clothing of Belarus are determined to develop practical recommendations and solutions.

Indonesian Coconut Oil Export Opportunities with Main Trade Partner Countries in the International Market

This study examines the opportunities for trade administration of Indonesian coconut oil in major trading partner countries in terms of the development of area size, production and productivity of coconuts, competition in the marketing of coconut oil, and demand for coconut oil in the international market. The purpose of this research is to (1) develop of area, production, and productivity of coconut in Indonesia, (2) analysis of the competitiveness of Indonesian coconut oil in major trading partner countries, and (3) analysis of trend analysis of demand for Indonesian coconut oil in the international market. The data used in this research is secondary data from UN Comtrade for 25 years (1997-2021) and FAO for 61 years (1961-2001). The method used is to describe the development of a land area, production, and production of coconut in Indonesia and the development of demand for coconut oil in Indonesia in the international market. Revealed Comparative Trade Advantage (RCTA), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), and Trade Balance Index (TBI) analysis methods are used to determine the competitiveness of Indonesian coconut oil in the major trading countries. In addition, a product map is created based on changes in the competitiveness of Indonesian coconut oil products among the main trading partners. The results showed an increase in area, production, and production of coconuts annually. Indonesia has intense competition for coconut oil in its major trading countries. In addition, the demand for coconut oil in the international market will continue to increase due to the ever-increasing industrial needs. This is an opportunity to expand the coconut market share internationally.