Magnitude Mw Research Articles

Earthquake-triggered ground-failure inventory associated with the M7.1 2018 Southcentral Alaska earthquake

The 30 November 2018, magnitude (Mw) 7.1 earthquake in Southcentral Alaska triggered substantial landslides, liquefaction, and ground cracking throughout the region, resulting in widespread geotechnical damage to buildings and infrastructure. Despite a challenging reconnaissance and remote-sensing environment, we constructed a detailed digital inventory of ground failure associated with the event from several sources. Sources included information derived from remotely sensed data, and data compiled from literature, social media postings, and earthquake damage information compiled by local, state, and federal agencies. Each instance of ground failure within the inventory contains information on the location and type of observed ground failure, and the methods and data used to document the occurrence. Where high-quality data, such as LIDAR or satellite imagery, were available and showed the ground-failure instance clearly, the extent is mapped as a polygon or polyline. All other locations are mapped as points. There are a total of 886 ground-failure instances documented within the inventory (400 landslides, 286 liquefaction features, and 200 features unattributed to specific processes). A semi-quantitative confidence scheme is used to describe mapping certainty associated with each ground-failure feature. This inventory represents a relatively moderate ground-failure-triggering event that occurred in a subarctic environment. This data paper describes the content within the inventory, the inventory data collection procedures, and limitations of the data. Events of this type are not often documented in detail; thus, adding the inventory data to the US Geological Survey Open Repository of Earthquake-Triggered Ground-Failure Inventories further diversifies the datasets available to the scientific community to be used to better understand and model earthquake-triggered ground failure.

The 2022 Mw 6.6 Menyuan earthquake: An early-terminated runaway rupture by the complex fault geometry

The 2022 Mw 6.6 Menyuan earthquake, which caused unexpectedly large surface offsets (about 2.6–3.5 m) relative to the moment magnitude of this event, is one of the best-recorded strike-slip events in the northeastern Tibetan plateau. Although previous studies have revealed many kinematic features of this event, the mechanism and rupture dynamic characteristics underlying unexpectedly large surface dislocations need to be clarified. In this study, based on the grid search method, we conducted 61 dynamic rupture simulations considering terrain relief to screen out a preferred dynamic model that fits the geodetic, seismic, and geological observations well. The results show that the average stress drop of the nucleation part is relatively high (11 MPa), which could provide high initial rupture energy and give this event a chance to develop into a large earthquake. However, the rupture propagating eastward is slowed and terminated by two consecutive fault bends of about 10° each, and the westward propagating one might concentrate at a shallow depth (< 3 km) on the south secondary fault after it jumps over the stepover. These results imply that the complex fault geometry (the fault bend and stepover) might terminate the rupture early so that the observed magnitude of this event (Mw 6.6) is smaller than the estimated magnitude (Mw 7.1–7.2) based on the surface offsets. Our study again shows that, due to advances in computational power and observations (coverage and quality), physics-based dynamic rupture simulations have entered an era where it is possible to fit the observed data well, which is vital for further understanding the mechanisms of earthquakes.

Co-seismic deformation and related hazards associated with the 2022 Mw 5.6 Cianjur earthquake in West Java, Indonesia: insights from combined seismological analysis, DInSAR, and geomorphological investigations

IntroductionOn November 21, 2022, a magnitude Mw 5.6 earthquake struck Cianjur Regency in the West Java Province of Indonesia. It was followed by at least 512 aftershocks that persisted from November to June 2023. This seismic event occurred in an area previously unrecognized as an active fault zone. The consequences of this earthquake in Cianjur were severe, leading to both loss of life and extensive structural damage. The substantial damage to buildings was likely a result of abrupt alterations in the local topography due to surface deformation effects.ObjectivesThis research endeavor aims to spatially determine the patterns of ground surface deformation and its relationship with local geomorphological setting due to earthquakes in Cianjur in 2022.MethodsIn this study we conduct seismological analysis of 45 seismic stations, statistical analysis of mainshock and aftershocks data, RADAR Sentinel-1 imagery and employed the DInSAR methodology. Field survey was also conducted to determine the geomorphological characteristics in the study area.ResultsThe outcomes disclosed that the deformation encompassed both subsidence and uplift. The results signify that there was subsidence deformation in the vicinity of Cianjur and its environs during the primary earthquake on November 21, 2022, with an average deformation value of approximately -5 cm. In contrast, the measured deformation during the aftershocks exhibited uplift deformation, with an average value of 10 cm. The examination of deformation patterns amid the 2022 Cianjur earthquake sequence detects elevated deformation values in the vicinity of Cugenang district, with an orientation running from northwest to southeast. The geomorphological investigation conducted indicates that the region of Cianjur encompasses a variety of landforms, such as volcanic, structural, fluvial, and denudational. These landforms exhibit distinct responses to seismic activities. Co-seismic hazards, such as landslides frequently occur as a consequence of seismic events in mountainous terrain.Main ConclusionsSpatio-temporal variation of ground deformation could arise from various causes, such as the number and distribution of aftershocks, stress redistribution, fault interactions, secondary effects, and local geological settings. The mainshocks release accumulated stress along a fault, resulting in particular types of deformation, whereas aftershocks may redistribute stress exhibiting on adjacent faults. Secondary effects triggered by aftershocks, coupled with local geological and geomorphological conditions, further contribute to the diverse patterns of ground deformation observed during seismic events. The results of the study revealed that ground deformation had the greatest impact on fluvial, volcanic, and denudational processes, resulting in notable subsidence and uplift in specific regions. The occurrence and magnitude of co-seismic landslides were triggered by both mainshock and aftershock events, which occurred on weathered geological materials. These effects were further amplified by the simultaneous presence of the rainy season.ImplicationsThe knowledge gained from this research can be applied to evaluate the impacts of earthquakes and to proactively reduce future risks.

Earthquake source impacts on the generation and propagation of seismic infrasound to the upper atmosphere

SUMMARY Earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) ranging from 6.5 to 7.0 have been observed to generate sufficiently strong acoustic waves (AWs) in the upper atmosphere. These AWs are detectable in Global Navigation Satellite System satellite signals-based total electron content (TEC) observations in the ionosphere at altitudes ∼250–300 km. However, the specific earthquake source parameters that influence the detectability and characteristics of AWs are not comprehensively understood. Here, we extend our approach of coupled earthquake-atmosphere dynamics modelling by combing dynamic rupture and seismic wave propagation simulations with 2-D and 3-D atmospheric numerical models, to investigate how the characteristics of earthquakes impact the generation and propagation of AWs. We developed a set of idealized dynamic rupture models varying faulting types and fault sizes, hypocentral depths and stress drops. We focus on earthquakes of Mw 6.0–6.5, which are considered the smallest detectable with TEC, and find that the resulting AWs undergo non-linear evolution and form acoustic shock N waves reaching thermosphere at ∼90–140 km. The results reveal that the magnitude of the earthquakes is not the sole or primary factor determining the amplitudes of AWs in the upper atmosphere. Instead, various earthquake source characteristics, including the direction of rupture propagation, the polarity of seismic wave imprints on the surface, earthquake mechanism, stress drop and radiated energy, significantly influence the amplitudes and periods of AWs. The simulation results are also compared with observed TEC fluctuations from AWs generated by the 2023 Mw 6.2 Suzu (Japan) earthquake, finding preliminary agreement in terms of model-predicted signal periods and amplitudes. Understanding these nuanced relationships between earthquake source parameters and AW characteristics is essential for refining our ability to detect and interpret AW signals in the ionosphere.

Intraslab seismicity migration simultaneously with an interface slow slip event along the Ecuadorian subduction zone

Slow slip events (SSEs) are transient slip episodes taking place along the plate interface of subduction zones. They usually occur synchronously to tectonic tremors and/or seismic swarms, but the relationship between slip and seismicity remains unclear. Here, we study a well-instrumented seismic swarm-SSE sequence near a highly coupled segment along the Ecuadorian subduction zone. GPS data reveal that a one-week long SSE developed along the subduction interface at shallow depth (5–15 km) with an equivalent moment magnitude (Mw) of 6.3. During that period, a local temporary seismic network recorded >700 earthquakes with magnitudes ranging between 1.0 and 4.6. The distribution of seismicity illuminates a steep intraslab fault downdip of an oceanic relief, striking almost parallel to the trench. This seismicity migrates along strike of this active structure at a velocity of 10–15 km/day. This velocity is commonly observed in the case of slow slip propagation. Our observation suggests that the interplate SSE might have triggered a slow slip along the the intraslab active structure, which in turn drove the intraslab seismicity. In addition, at the northern part of the intraslab faults, a cluster of seismicity shows a radial expansion compatible with a fluid diffusion process. Overall, our study highlights the dynamical interaction between an interplate slow slip and an intraslab seismic swarm with the interplay of an intraslab aseismic slip propagation and fluid diffusion, both controlling the migration of seismicity.

Present-day quantification of seismic coupling along the décollement level beneath the Potwar Plateau region in Pakistan western Himalaya

Using GNSS horizontal surface velocities and Sentinel-1 interferometry line-of-sight velocities, we quantify the current velocity field of the Potwar Plateau Salt Range fold-and-thrust belt. From this velocity field indicating a creep of the Potwar Plateau along the Main Himalayan Thrust, we inferred a weak subhorizontal décollement level formed by a massive Precambrian salt layer. To the south of the Plateau, the Salt Range is uplifted along the Salt Range Thrust, conditioned by the presence of an inherited normal fault. The Kalabagh Fault, which forms the western boundary of the Salt Range and Potwar Plateau, exhibits a creep rate of 3.3 mm/yr. Numerical modelling enabled us to characterise the slip distribution and coupling along the faults, showing the presence of a large asperity along the décollement level beneath the Potwar Plateau and several asperities along the eastern part of this basal thrust. The model also indicated an alternation of coupled and decoupled zones along the Kalabagh Fault, suggesting that this strike-slip fault can be characterised by creep and the occurrence of earthquakes and/or slow slip events. Considering the lack of instrumental and historical large-magnitude earthquakes in this area, the Main Himalayan Thrust and Kalabagh Fault are likely to be affected by earthquakes of magnitude Mw larger than 7.5. A slip rate of 20 mm/yr is modelled along the southern and superficial parts of the Salt Range Thrust, which is larger than the 14 mm/yr slip rate along the Main Himalayan Thrust at depth. This observation suggests the existence of a southward flow of massive salt along the Salt Range Thrust.

February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş twin earthquakes: Evaluation of ground motions and seismic performance of buildings for Elazığ, southeast of Türkiye

On February 6, 2023, two strong earthquakes, magnitude (Mw) 7.7 and 7.6, occurred 9 h apart on the East Anatolian Fault Zone in Türkiye. These devastating earthquakes directly affected a region of southeastern Türkiye, where approximately 15 million people live and caused severe destruction of structures. Unfortunately, more than 50.000 people lost their lives as a result. The study presented the tectonic structure of Elazığ, one of the provinces affected by these earthquakes, in detail. Then, the general seismic characteristics of the main shock.Additionally, the geological structure, existing building stock, and seismicity of Elazığ province are given. Furthermore, the damages, deficiencies, misapplications and defects, and lack of engineering services and supervision seen in the building stocks due to the field investigation are presented and discussed in detail. Finally, some suggestions were made to prevent all these damages, to observe deficiencies/misapplications, and to take precautions for existing damaged buildings.

Offshore Fault Geometry Revealed from Earthquake Locations Using New State-of-Art Techniques: The Case of the 2022 Adriatic Sea Earthquake Sequence

Abstract Precise hypocenter locations are critical for properly interpreting earthquake occurrence processes. However, when the coverage with seismic stations is unfavorable or sparse, locating precisely earthquake hypocenters, in particular their depth, is challenging. Here we apply a newly developed approach, which uses only two land stations, to the recently occurred 2022 Adriatic Sea offshore earthquake sequence (mainshock of magnitude Mw 5.5) and achieve location results that are comparable to the catalog locations obtained using dozens of stations. First, six events with magnitudes M ≥3.0 were relocated using a travel-time stacking method. Next, using these six earthquakes as reference events, we applied a two-station differential travel-time method to reconstruct the earthquake cluster geometry and locate the remaining events, including the mainshock. The obtained earthquake distribution shows a dipping direction that varies from south to southwest, depending on the choice of the input parameters. Our preferred result shows a cluster dipping at an angle of ∼30° toward the south-southwest. This solution was chosen because the depth of the mainshock hypocenter obtained using the differential-time procedure agrees well with the depth constrained using depth phases. Moreover, the relatively sharp earthquake cluster geometry is in general consistent with the thrust fault structures revealed by a local seismic reflection survey and focal mechanism solutions.

Possible Interrelations of Space Weather and Seismic Activity: An Implication for Earthquake Forecast

The statistical analysis of the impact of the top 50 X-class solar flares (1997–2024) on global seismic activity as well as on the earthquake preparation zones located in the illuminated part of the globe and in an area of 5000 km around the subsolar point was carried out. It is shown by a method of epoch superposition that for all cases, an increase in seismicity is observed, especially in the region around the subsolar point (up to 33%) during the 10 days after the solar flare in comparison with the preceding 10 days. The case study of the aftershock sequence of a strong Mw = 9.1 earthquake (Sumatra–Andaman Islands, 26 December 2004) after the solar flare of X10.16 class (20 January 2005) demonstrated that the number of aftershocks with a magnitude of Mw ≥ 2.5 increases more than 17 times after the solar flare with a delay of 7–8 days. For the case of the Darfield earthquake (Mw = 7.1, 3 September 2010, New Zealand), it was shown that X-class solar flares and M probably triggered two strong aftershocks (Mw = 6.1 and Mw = 5.9) with the same delay of 6 days on the Port Hills fault, which is the most sensitive to external electromagnetic impact from the point of view of the fault electrical conductivity and orientation. Based on the obtained results, the possible application of natural electromagnetic triggering of earthquakes is discussed for the earthquake forecast using confidently recorded strong external electromagnetic triggering impacts on the specific earthquake preparation zones, as well as ionospheric perturbations due to aerosol emission from the earthquake sources recorded by satellites.

Analysis of the Fractal Dimension, b-value, Slip Ratio, and Decay Rate of Aftershock Seismicity Following the 6 February 2023 (Mw 7.8 and 7.5) Türkiye Earthquakes

On 6 February 2023, Türkiye experienced a pair of consecutive earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw 7.8 and 7.5, and accompanied by an intense aftershock sequence. These seismic events were particularly impactful on the segments of the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), causing extensive damage to both human life and urban centers in Türkiye and Syria. This study explores the analysis of a dataset spanning almost one year following the Turkiye mainshocks, including 471 events with a magnitude of completeness (Mc) ≥ 4.4. We employed the maximum likelihood approach to estimate the b-value and Omori-Utsu parameters (K, c, and p-values). The estimated b-value is 1.21 ± 0.1, indicating that the mainshocks occurred in a region characterized by elevated stress levels, leading to a sequence of aftershocks of larger magnitudes due to notable irregularities in the rupture zone. The aftershock decay rate (p-value = 1.1 ± 0.04) indicates a rapid decrease in stress levels following the main shocks. However, the c-value of 0.204 ± 0.058 would indicate a relatively moderate or low initial productivity of aftershocks. Furthermore, the k-value of 76.75 ± 8.84 suggests that the decay of aftershock activity commenced within a range of approximately 68 to 86 days following the mainshocks. The fractal dimension (Dc) was assessed using the correlation integral method, yielding a value of 0.99 ± 0.03. This implies a tendency toward clustering in the aftershock seismicity and a linear configuration of the epicenters. The slip ratio during the aftershock activity was determined to be 0.75, signifying that 75% of the total slip occurred in the primary rupture, with the remaining fraction distributed among secondary faults. The methodologies and insights acquired in this research can be extended to assist in forecasting aftershock occurrences for future earthquakes, thus offering crucial data for future risk assessment.

Seismic characterisation of the subsoil under a historic building: Cathedral Church of Saint Mary in Murcia case study

This research focuses on the Cathedral Church of Saint Mary in Murcia, Spain, which is located in a moderate-to-high seismic risk zone in the Spanish context. The study uses geophysical techniques and geotechnical investigation to characterise seismic ground models at the building's scale, aiming to understand the real amplification of the ground under seismic effect in historic buildings. Three soil layers (silt, sand with gravel, and gravel) were identified through core borings. Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) profiles and Mini-array profiles revealed Vs values of 305 ± 32 m/s, 296 ± 62 m/s, and 440 ± 38.5 m/s, respectively, for these materials. Seismic Refraction Tomography (SRT) showed Vp values of 586 ± 73 m/s, 700 m/s, and 1466 ± 489 m/s for the corresponding layers. The horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) approach identified a ground predominant period ranging from 0.37 to 0.38 s. Another significant peak at 2.3 s is observed, probably associated to the Triassic basement. Three seismic events with magnitudes Mw between 4.9 and 5.1 were used as inputs to determine the amplification factor (AF). The results indicate a PGA amplification factor between 1.7 and 2.1. These results contribute to the conservation and mitigation of seismic risk of this cultural heritage generating input data that enables precise computation of the soil-structure interaction.

Magnitudes and surface rupture lengths of paleo-earthquakes at the NW-part of the Peel Boundary fault zone, Roer Valley Rift System

The Peel Boundary Fault zone (PBFZ) is the 125 km long, seismically active, northern bounding fault zone of the Roer Valley Rift System (RVRS). The last damaging earthquake along the PBFZ was the Roermond earthquake of 1992. It had a magnitude of Mw 5.3 and no surface rupture. Previous results from two trenching studies located in the central and southeastern parts of the PBFZ provided evidence for two surface rupturing paleo-earthquakes. The largest earthquake had an estimated magnitude of Mw ∼6.8 and a surface rupture length of at least 35 km. As it took place around the Late Pleniglacial – Late Glacial transition a link to glacio-isostatic motions is likely. Results from a new trench situated at the northwestern part of the PBFZ shows evidence for three to four paleo-earthquakes, of which three were surface rupturing. These comprise two normal faulting- and one, younger trans-tensional displacement. The normal faulting events have ∼1 m vertical displacements each, which translate into magnitudes of Mw ∼7. Like the previous results, they occurred during the Late Pleniglacial-Late Glacial transition, at ∼15 ka and ∼ 14 ka. The younger trans-tensional event occurred sometime during the Holocene, pre-dating an unaffected, 13th century man-made paleo-channel on the hangingwall. The potential fourth, non-surface rupturing earthquake is indirectly evidenced by loading deformations of a sand layer and a collapsed brick-wall in the infill of the paleo-channel. Comparison of our trenching results to those from the two previous studies, which were located farther to the southeast along the PBFZ, shows that for one event a correlation is possible. The correlation would indicate a surface rupture length of at least 55 km. Combined, all trenching results indicate that the characteristic maximum rupturing displacement is ∼1 m, and thus that Mw ∼7 is the maximum magnitude of paleo-earthquakes along the PBFZ.

REHABILITATION APPROACH AFTER EARTHQUAKE DISASTER: A BRIEF REPORT FROM TURKEY.

Devastating earthquake disasters are experienced all over the world. On February 6, 2023, two major earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw 7.7 and 7.6, respectively, occurred centered in Kahramanmaraş, Turkey. It resulted in at least 50,783 deaths and more than 122,000 injuries according to official data. Defining the post-earthquake experiences and earthquake risk assessment well and identifying the deficiencies will guide the coordination, management, and planning of subsequent disasters. In this study, the rehabilitation approaches of earthquake victims with physical injuries in our rehabilitation center are emphasized and the situations that will be encountered in the immediate, intermediate, and long-term periods after the earthquake are summarized.

Seismic hazard analysis using Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) Method: A case study in Southern Malang District, East Java

Indonesia is a country that has a high earthquake threat. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) recorded that Indonesia experienced 5,439 earthquakes with a magnitude of Mw 5. Geologically, Indonesia is located about 200 km from the subduction zone of the Indo-Australian and Eurasian plates. Malang Regency faces the subduction of the Indo-Australian and Eurasian plates. Earthquakes that occur in plate subduction areas will propagate in various directions, including to Malang Regency. Thus, Malang Regency, especially in the southern part, has a high earthquake threat. This study aims to calculate the earthquake threat using a deterministic approach. Earthquake threats can be calculated using the Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) method. This study obtained the Mc. Guirre and Donovan attenuation function. These two attenuation functions produce different Peak Ground Acceleration values. The calculations with the Mc. Guirre attenuation function has a range of PGA values from 38,76461 gals to 69,78215 gals. Meanwhile, the Donovan attenuation function calculation produces a range of PGA values from 41.97550 gals to 76.21376 gals. Based on the value of ground acceleration during an earthquake, Bantur, Gedangan, and Sumbermanjing sub-districts are the sub-districts with the highest earthquake threat level in Southern Malang Regency. Tirtoyudo Village, Tirtoyudo District, Malang District has a lower PGA value when compared to Gedangan District. However, the amount of damage to buildings in this subdistrict was much higher. Since the building structure in Tirtoyudo Village cannot withstand ground shaking due to the earthquake, there is damage to the structure of the building.

Damage assessment of Siverek Castle during the Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6) on 06 February 2023: Remediation and strengthening proposals

On February 6, 2023, two significant earthquakes with magnitudes (Mw) of 7.7 and 7.6 struck Turkey, occurring nine hours apart. In addition to the tragic loss of over 50,000 lives in the earthquakes centered in Kahramanmaraş, hundreds of thousands of engineering structures, such as residences, schools, hospitals, historical landmarks, highways, and more, were severely damaged. This study assesses the damages and risk scenario following the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes concerning Siverek Castle. In addition, remediation and strengthening proposals, required to eliminate the damage and the possible risk, have been developed. The initial stage involved observational damage assessments on the castle and surrounding slopes as part of field studies, identifying five different types of damage and potential risks. Subsequently, a precise 3D digital model of the damaged castle and its slopes was generated using the digital photogrammetry method. Additionally, geological and geophysical studies were conducted in the field to determine the characteristics of the mound structure, historical castle walls, soil and rock on the slope. Non-destructive, geophysical methods consisting Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES), Seismic Refraction Method (SRM) and Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) measurements were specifically employed in the area with historical remnants. To verify the obtained data, five boreholes were drilled in the lower parts of the slope, and experimental studies were conducted to determine the soil and rock material properties of the slope. In the numerical studies, a total of 54 2D stability analyses were performed under static, long-term static, and dynamic conditions. Additionally, 1000 different probabilistic rockfall analyses were conducted, both in 2D and 3D, to calculate the run-out distance, bounce height, velocity, and kinetic energies of the blocks that fell or were about to fall during the earthquake. In the final stage of the study, remediation and strengthening recommendations were prepared for the strengthening of the fortification walls and slopes where failures occurred, and stability analyses were conducted. Consequently, a design proposal recommending five distinct approaches to remediate and strengthen the castle and slopes impacted by the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes was endorsed by the relevant authorities, and construction has commenced. When the remediation and strengthening works are completed, the security of the cultural heritage will be ensured, and it is planned to be opened to visitors.

Association of land surface temperature anomalies from GOES/ABI, MSG/SEVIRI, and Himawari-8/AHI with land earthquakes between 2010 and 2021

Every year, earthquakes cause numerous casualties and billions of dollars in economic damages, and so far, it is impossible to predict them. Many researchers have studied the land surface temperature (LST) anomalies as promising potential earthquake precursors. In this work, more than 30,000 land earthquakes with a Magnitude (Mw) larger than 4 have been studied from 2010 to 2021. Global LST nighttime (0–6 am) data from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), Himawari-8, and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) satellites have been used to evaluate the LST anomalies in the zones affected by earthquakes with spatial resolutions of 1, 2, and 4 km, respectively. The time series moving standard deviation (STD) and Interquartile (IQT) have been used to estimate the LST anomalies. The Confusion Matrix (CM), the receiver operating curve (ROC), and some other figures of merit are computed to assess the goodness of positive LST anomalies and detection thresholds as potential proxies of earthquake occurrence. A positive LST anomaly is typically observed a few days [1–7 d] before the earthquake’s occurrence, followed by a negative LST anomaly afterwards [1–3 d].

Enriching the GEOFON seismic catalog with automatic energy magnitude estimations

Abstract. We present a seismic catalog (Bindi et al., 2024, https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.6.2023.010) including energy magnitude Me estimated from P waves recorded at teleseismic distances in the range 20°≤Δ≤98° and for depths shorter than 80 km. The catalog is built starting from the event catalog disseminated by GEOFON (GEOFOrschungsNetz), considering 6349 earthquakes with moment magnitude Mw≥5 occurring between 2011 and 2023. Magnitudes are computed using 1 031 396 freely available waveforms archived in EIDA (European Integrated Data Archive) and IRIS (Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology) repositories, retrieved through the standard International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) web services (https://www.fdsn.org/webservices/, last access: March 2024). A reduced, high-quality catalog for events with Mw≥5.8 and from which stations and events with only few recordings were removed forms the basis of a detailed analysis of the residuals of individual station measurements, which are decomposed into station- and event-specific terms and a term accounting for remaining variability. The derived Me values are compared to Mw computed by GEOFON and with the Me values calculated by IRIS. Software and tools developed for downloading and processing waveforms for bulk analysis and an add-on for SeisComP for real-time assessment of Me in a monitoring context are also provided alongside the catalog. The SeisComP add-on has been part of the GEOFON routine processing since December 2021 to compute and disseminate Me for major events via the existing services.

Investigation of the relationship between the decline in well waters radon anomalies and the earthquake magnitude (Mw)

Afyonkarahisar and its surroundings are in the middle of the Akşehir-Simav Fault System. Before the earthquakes in the region, radon anomalies were observed in some well waters. Linear equations between radon minima and earthquake magnitudes (Mw) were obtained, and correlation coefficients (R2) were calculated. The correlation coefficient (R2) values of the wells from 1 to 6 were obtained as 0.93, 0.83, 0.82, 0.97, 0.87 and 0.85, respectively. Good correlations (high R2 values) were obtained between the radon minimum and the earthquake magnitude (Mw) in 6 wells. The precursory minimum observed at the radon concentration in groundwater decreased as the earthquake's magnitude increased.

Ground-Motion Model for Small-to-Moderate Potentially Induced Earthquakes Using an Ensemble Machine Learning Approach for CENA

ABSTRACT Ground-motion models (GMMs) are vital in assessing probabilistic seismic hazards and uncertainties. This study develops new GMMs benefiting from nonparametric machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks, kernel ridge, random forest, and gradient boosting regression techniques for small-to-moderate potentially induced earthquakes in central and eastern North America (CENA). As part of this study, we evaluate the performance of different machine learning models in estimating peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 17 spectral accelerations based on the moment magnitude (Mw), hypocentral distance (Rhypo), and the timed-average shear-wave velocity of the upper 30 m of soil (VS30). To train the algorithms, we have utilized a database of nearly 31,000 ground motions with small and moderate moment magnitudes ranging from 3.0 to 5.8, recorded within a hypocentral distance of less than 200 km in CENA. Typically, for GMM development, analysts employ linear regression-based models with predefined functional forms. The requirement for predefined functional forms can restrict the use of complicated and nonlinear equations to improve performance. Although the conventional regression model is more interpretable, machine learning can achieve a better result given sufficient training data. The results of error metrics reveal that gradient-boosting regression provides a better performance. Furthermore, a machine learning ensemble method is used to combine the regression results of four machine learning algorithms. The ensemble method improves the GMM performance and provides smoother results.

Probabilistic forecast of next earthquake event in Makran subduction zone using Weibull distribution

Earthquake is the most lethal type of natural disaster. Researchers have been working to develop precise earthquake prediction methods to save lives. A statistical investigation is an effective earthquake prediction method because they offer more details about the seismic risk or hazard issue. This study utilizes seismic data from the Makran subduction zone from 1934 to 2017. Probability distributions may be employed to assess the risk of seismic events and earthquake occurrence probability. This work estimates the probability of the next major event in the Makran subduction zone through Weibull distribution by considering strong earthquakes with a magnitude (Mw ≥ 6) in the intervals (in years) between two consecutive earthquakes. The probabilities of the forthcoming seismic event have been estimated based on the previous earthquake record, pictorially. The calculated parameters of the Weibull distribution for the Makran subduction zone may help to forecast the probabilities of a strong earthquake and describe the pattern of earthquake average return time. The calculated probability for the Weibull distribution reaches 0.92 after ten years since the last strong earthquake in 2021, indicating that the Weibull distribution within and around the present research area in 2031 will be 92%.