Madden–Julian Oscillation Research Articles

Potential Strengthening of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis

Potential Strengthening of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis

The atmospheric aerosol spatial distribution and tropical intra-seasonal oscillations over the South Asian region

Intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) are well known to modulate the weather phenomena which in turn are known to influence the atmospheric aerosol loading. This study investigates how aerosol loading is modulated in ISO spatio-temporal scales over the Indian region using long-term satellite aerosol optical depth data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, onboard Terra Satellite. It is shown that Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Equatorial Rossby waves (ER) have the highest effect (15–20% of the mean) followed by Mixed-Rossby-gravity and Tropical depressions (MT), and Kelvin wave (KE) (5–15%). Further, a dipolar pattern in aerosol loading was observed, with poles over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. These variabilities were found to be mainly driven by anomalous winds associated with the ISOs. Similar to aerosol, dipolar signatures in the atmospheric aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) were also observed with clearer patterns. However, the forcing poles are not centered exactly where aerosol poles were observed, indicating the effect of differential properties of aerosols on the aerosol radiative forcing. Quantitatively, at the surface level, modulation in ARF is up to 3 Wm-2 (15%) for MJO and ER, and up to 2 Wm-2 (5%) for KE and MT; in the atmosphere and at the top of the atmosphere, modulation is up to 2 Wm-2 (15%) for MJO and ER, and up to 1 Wm-2 (5%) for KE and MT.

Exploring the Relative Importance of the MJO and ENSO to North Pacific Subseasonal Predictability

AbstractHere we explore the relative contribution of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to midlatitude subseasonal predictive skill of upper atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific, using an inherently interpretable neural network applied to pre‐industrial control runs of the Community Earth System Model version 2. We find that this interpretable network generally favors the state of ENSO, rather than the MJO, to make correct predictions on a range of subseasonal lead times and predictand averaging windows. Moreover, the predictability of positive circulation anomalies over the North Pacific is comparatively lower than that of their negative counterparts, especially evident when the ENSO state is important. However, when ENSO is in a neutral state, our findings indicate that the MJO provides some predictive information, particularly for positive anomalies. We identify three distinct evolutions of these MJO states, offering fresh insights into opportune forecasting windows for MJO teleconnections.

Effects of Surface Turbulence Flux Parameterizations on the MJO: The Role of Ocean Surface Waves

Abstract This study investigates the sensitivity of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) to changes to the bulk flux parameterization and the role of ocean surface waves in air–sea coupling using a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave model. The atmospheric and ocean model components of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) are coupled to a spectral wave model, WAVEWATCH III (WW3). Two experiments with wind speed–dependent bulk algorithms (NCAR and COARE3.0a) and one experiment with wave-state-dependent flux (COR3.0a-WAV) were conducted. We modify COARE3.0a to include surface roughness calculated within WW3 and also account for the buffering effect of waves on the relative difference between air-side and ocean-side momentum flux. Differences in surface fluxes, primarily caused by discrepancies in drag coefficients, result in significant differences in MJO’s properties. While COARE3.0a has better convection–circulation coupling than NCAR, it exhibits anomalous MJO convection east of the date line. The wave-state-dependent flux (COR3.0-WAV) improves the MJO representation over the default COARE3.0 algorithm. Strong easterlies over the Pacific Ocean in COARE3.0a enhance the latent heat flux (LHFLX). This is responsible for the anomalous MJO propagation after the date line. In COR3.0a-WAV, waves reduce the anomalous easterlies, leading to a decrease in LHFLX and MJO dissipation after the date line. These findings highlight the role of surface fluxes in MJO simulation fidelity. Most importantly, we show that the proper treatment of wave-induced effects in bulk flux parameterization improves the simulation of coupled climate variability.

Quantifying the impact of SST feedback frequency on Madden–Julian oscillation simulations

Abstract. This study uses the Community Atmosphere Model 5.3 coupled to a 1-D ocean model to investigate the effects of intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) feedback frequency on Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) simulations with intervals at 30 min and 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 30 d. The large-scale nature of the MJO in simulations remains intact with decreasing feedback frequency, although it becomes increasingly unrealistic in both structure and amplitude, until 1 per 30 d when the intraseasonal fluctuations are overwhelmingly dominated by unorganized small-scale perturbations in both atmosphere and ocean, as well as at the atmosphere–ocean interface where heat and energy are rigorously exchanged. The main conclusion is that the less frequent the SST feedback, the more unrealistic the simulations. Our results suggest that more spontaneous atmosphere–ocean interaction (e.g., ocean response once every time step to every 3 d in this study) with high vertical resolution in the ocean model is a key to the realistic simulation of the MJO and should be properly implemented in climate models.

Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3

Abstract. Systematic, routine, and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) facilitates benchmarking improvement across model generations and identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different model configurations. By gauging the consistency between models and observations, this endeavor is becoming increasingly necessary to objectively synthesize the thousands of simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to date. The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) Metrics Package (PMP) is an open-source Python software package that provides quick-look objective comparisons of ESMs with one another and with observations. The comparisons include metrics of large- to global-scale climatologies, tropical inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability modes such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), extratropical modes of variability, regional monsoons, cloud radiative feedbacks, and high-frequency characteristics of simulated precipitation, including its extremes. The PMP comparison results are produced using all model simulations contributed to CMIP6 and earlier CMIP phases. An important objective of the PMP is to document the performance of ESMs participating in the recent phases of CMIP, together with providing version-controlled information for all datasets, software packages, and analysis codes being used in the evaluation process. Among other purposes, this also enables modeling groups to assess performance changes during the ESM development cycle in the context of the error distribution of the multi-model ensemble. Quantitative model evaluation provided by the PMP can assist modelers in their development priorities. In this paper, we provide an overview of the PMP, including its latest capabilities, and discuss its future direction.

Factors influencing subseasonal predictability of northern Eurasian cold spells

AbstractCold‐air outbreaks have significant impacts on human health, energy consumption, agriculture, and overall well‐being. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal (S2S) models in predicting cold conditions over northern Eurasia, defined here as the lower tercile of weekly mean 2‐metre temperature anomalies. To assess the predictability of these events we use ensemble hindcasts from five prediction systems from the S2S database. Our analysis focuses on identifying the conditions under which the models confidently predict cold temperatures with a high (>0.5) probability 3–4 weeks ahead, which potentially can represent windows of forecast opportunity. We compare the group of forecasts that correctly predicted the events to the group that forecasted events that did not occur in practice (false alarms). Most of the confident forecasts of cold spells, both correct and false alarms, have cold anomalies already in the initial conditions, often in conjunction with either a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, or Scandinavian Blocking. We find that S2S models tend to overpredict cold temperatures, with false alarms occurring more likely when the forecasts are initialized during a weak polar vortex. Furthermore, most of the confident false alarms receive the signal from the stratosphere rather than following internal tropospheric dynamics. False alarms initialized during the weak polar vortex conditions are more common when the vortex is in a recovery stage and, subsequently, the downward ‐propagating signal is short‐lived in the troposphere. The analysis of forecasts during different Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) phases shows that nearly half of all confident correct cold‐temperature forecasts are initialized during an active MJO in phases 6–8. On the other hand, most false alarms occur during phase 3, which we suggest is due to the presence of the Scandinavian Blocking regime in the initial conditions for this phase.

Downscaling the ocean response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Northwest Atlantic and adjacent shelf seas

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction is a global effort to forecast the state of the atmosphere and ocean with lead times between two weeks and a season. This study explores the feasibility of S2S prediction of the ocean using a variety of tools including statistical analysis, a statistical-dynamical mixed layer model, and a regional, high-resolution ocean circulation model based on physical principles. Ocean predictability on S2S timescales is analyzed by compositing winter sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic with respect to the state of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). It is found that statistically significant, large-scale SST changes, particularly along the eastern seaboard of North America, can be related to the MJO. This signal is shown to be driven by anomalous air–sea heat fluxes caused by atmospheric perturbations in response to the MJO. The high-resolution model of the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf is used to downscale the mean ocean response to the MJO. The model is able to capture the observed relationship between the MJO and SST in the northwest Atlantic. It is also shown that the anomalous atmospheric circulation in response to the MJO leads to anomalous upwelling on the Scotian Shelf. Overall, this study demonstrates that it is feasible, and of value, to use regional ocean models for S2S prediction.

Interaction with the Extratropics as a New Hypothesis for the Spectral Peak of the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) propagates eastward as a disturbance of mostly zonal wind and precipitation along the equator. The initial diagnosis of the MJO spectral peak at 40–50-day periods suggests a reduction in amplitude associated with slower MJO events that occur at lower frequencies. If events on the low-frequency side of the spectral peak continued to grow in amplitude with reduced phase speed, the spectrum would just be red. Wavelet regression analysis of slow and fast eastward-propagating MJO signals during northern winter assesses how associated moisture and wind patterns could explain why slow MJO events achieve lower amplitude in tracers of moist convection. Results suggest that slow MJO events favor a ridge anomaly over Europe, which drives cool dry air equatorward over Africa and Arabia as the active convection develops over the Indian Ocean. We hypothesize that dry air tracing back to this source, together with a longer duration of the events, leads to associated convection diminishing along the equator and instead concentrating in the Rossby gyres off the equator. Significance Statement The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) dominates the subseasonal variability of the tropical atmosphere. This work suggests that it favors maximum convective activity in the 40–50-day period range because lower-frequency MJO signals tend to import more cool dry air from the extratropics and along the equator, thereby weakening the slower events.

Tropical Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillations Leading to Sea Level Extremes in Coastal Indonesia during Recent Decades

Abstract Coastal flooding induced by sea surface high extreme (HEX) events is an increasing risk to human society and infrastructure as both urban growth in coastal areas and anthropogenic sea level rise continue, especially for island nations like Indonesia. This paper investigates the role of atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs), which are dominated by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), in forcing HEXs on the coasts of Indonesia bordering the Indian Ocean. We use satellite altimetry data from 1993 to 2021 and tide gauge observations to detect HEXs, and modeling experiments using both the Regional Ocean Modeling System and a Bayesian dynamic linear model to understand the forcing and processes. We find that HEXs exhibit strong seasonality, with most events occurring during boreal winter (December–February) and spring (March–May) that are dominated by seasonal-to-decadal and intraseasonal variability respectively. In 32% of the 56 HEX events detected, the amplitude of ISO-induced sea level anomalies (SLAs) exceeds that of seasonal-to-decadal SLAs. Surface wind stress associated with atmospheric ISOs is the major forcing for intraseasonal SLAs, and both the remote westerly wind stress from the Indian Ocean equator and northwesterly longshore wind stress at the Indonesian coasts play important roles in driving the HEXs. The MJO is the dominant cause of ISO-dominated HEXs and its impact shows strong seasonal differences. Spring MJOs are associated with stronger convective anomalies over the eastern Indian Ocean equator that drive stronger zonal winds across the equatorial basin that lead to more HEX events compared to winter MJOs when the convection is shifted southward.

How well can global ensemble forecasts predict tropical cyclones in the southwest Indian Ocean?

AbstractThe southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) recently experienced its most active, costliest and deadliest cyclone season on record (2018–2019). The anticipation and forecasting of natural hazards, such as tropical cyclones, are crucial to preparing for their impacts, but it is important to understand how well forecasting systems can predict them. Despite the vulnerability of the SWIO to tropical cyclones, comparatively little research has focused on this region, including understanding the ability of numerical weather prediction systems to predict cyclones and their impacts in southeast Africa. In this study, we evaluate ensemble probabilistic and high‐resolution deterministic forecasts of tropical cyclones in the SWIO from 2010 to 2020, using two state‐of‐the‐art global forecasting systems: one from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the other from the U.K. Met Office. We evaluate predictions of the track, assessing the location of the centre of each storm and its speed of movement, as well as its intensity, looking at maximum wind speeds and minimum central pressure, and discuss how the forecasts have evolved over the 10‐year period. Overall, ECMWF typically provides more accurate forecasts, but both systems tend to underestimate translation speed and intensity. We also investigate the impact of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) on tropical cyclones and their forecasts. The MJO impacts where and when tropical cyclones form, their tracks and intensities, which in turn impacts forecast skill. These results are intended to provide an increased understanding of the ability of global forecasting systems to predict tropical cyclones in the SWIO, for the purpose of decision making and anticipatory action.

Untangling the dynamics of heavy rainfall events (HRE) in the Northeast monsoon season and exploring its connection to the Indian Ocean warming and the Madden Julian Oscillation

Southeastern Peninsular India witnessed heavy rainfall events (HRE) during the recent El Nino year 2015 and La Nina year 2021 in November and early December. Both these events were associated with enhanced easterly wave activity and active Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime continent. The MJO was on the fourth (MJO-4) phase for 15 and 17 days in November 2015 and 2021 respectively. A weakening in the positive correlation between El Nino and Northeast monsoon rainfall and a strengthening in the positive correlation between the MJO-4 days and HRE is observed in very recent years. This study revealed that the unequal changes in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific region i.e., warming over the eastern Indian Ocean (IO) and cooling over the western Pacific Ocean can be favourable for the increased occurrence of MJO-4 days as well as HRE over southern Peninsular India. The easterly wind anomalies towards the southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) and southeastern Peninsular India and westerly wind anomalies over the central equatorial Indian Ocean are significantly correlated with HRE in the recent epoch (2001−2021). Warming in eastern IO brings easterlies from the cool western Pacific and westerlies from the western IO, which helps the MJO to remain active over maritime continent and inhibits its further eastward propagation. The HREs in the recent epoch are associated with the low-pressure systems and cyclonic circulation over southern Peninsular India, in which moisture transport is from the Arabian Sea to Peninsular India. The HRE in the early epoch (1981–2000) is related to the anticyclonic circulation over BoB region and the moisture transport is from BoB and southeastern IO. A proposed mechanism for the HRE in the recent epoch is as follows. The SST gradient in the Indo-Pacific Ocean is conducive for the moistening of MJO-4 region and is favourable for the enhanced easterly wave activity and the formation of low-pressure systems, which get strengthened while moving towards southern Peninsular India due to the presence of strong equatorial westerlies over IO. These strengthened low pressure systems leads to strong ascending wind anomalies over southern Peninsular India and strong descending anomalies over Central IO and HREs over southern Peninsular India.

Skilful multiweek predictions of tropical cyclone frequency in the Northern Hemisphere using ACCESS‐S2

AbstractThe skill of subseasonal (multiweek) forecasts of tropical‐cyclone (TC) occurrence over the Northern Hemisphere is examined in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BoM) multiweek to seasonal prediction system, ACCESS‐S2. ACCESS‐S2 shows a good representation of the spatial distribution of TCs in the Northern Hemisphere; however, TC track frequency is generally underpredicted in the western North Pacific to the east of the Philippines and in the eastern North Pacific. The reduced activity relative to observations could be due to a significant positive bias in 850–200‐hPa wind shear in both of these regions, as well as a significant negative sea‐surface temperature (SST) bias in the eastern North Pacific. Despite biases in climatological TC frequency, the observed change in TC track frequency across the Northern Hemisphere with the phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is well captured by ACCESS‐S2. Changes in the large‐scale environment (e.g., precipitation, 600‐hPa relative humidity, 850‐hPa absolute vorticity and 850–200‐hPa wind shear) are also well represented, with the location and size of the anomalies comparable to ERA‐Interim, apart from SST which shows a different response during some phases. ACCESS‐S2 shows skill relative to climatology for multiweek predictions of TC occurrence out to week 5 in the western North Pacific, eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic; and out to week 2 for the North Indian Ocean. Assessment of real‐time forecasts for Typhoon Rai (December 2021) showed that ACCESS‐S2 provided good guidance of the development and potential landfall of a TC in the Philippines at four weeks lead time.

Absolute instability of moisture‐coupled waves on the equatorial beta‐plane

AbstractThe instabilities produced by a linear model of the tropical atmosphere coupled to a prognostic equation for water vapour are investigated. The basic model with no meridional wind supports unstable eastward‐propagating waves. For parameter regimes relevant to the Indo‐Pacific warm pool, the long‐time asymptotic behaviour of the unstable waves is found to be absolutely unstable, so that the amplitude of disturbances will grow in time at every point in the domain. The absolute instability of the system is realized at planetary length‐scales and intraseasonal frequencies. Other parameter choices for the system do not produce this same behaviour at these length‐ and time‐scales. It is shown that the resultant long‐time behaviour of the instability is characterized by roughly equal roles for temperature and moisture fluctuations in setting the thermodynamic tendency of the waves. With the inclusion of momentum damping, the phase speed of the absolutely unstable solution is about 7 ms. Addition of a strong background meridional moisture gradient, as in recent studies on the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), appears to remove the absolute instability from the system. In a background state that varies slowly in the zonal direction, it is shown analytically that localized regions of instability may be formed, again using parameter choices relevant to the warm pool. The dynamics and thermodynamics of these local instabilities show some correspondence with the observed development of the MJO as it propagates through the warm pool.

Sub-seasonal to seasonal drivers of regional marine heatwaves around Australia

As marine heatwaves (MHWs) become more intense and longer lasting due to global warming, understanding the drivers and impacts of these events is crucial for effective marine resource management. This study investigates the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Sub-Tropical Ridge High (STRH), and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and MHWs around Australia. The aim of this research is to improve our understanding of the drivers of MHWs on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, which bridges the gap between short-term weather and interannual to long-term climate variability. By analysing SST anomalies and MHWs characteristics during specific driver phases, a simple MHW hazard index is developed. Our findings support previous research indicating that La Niña plays a role in driving MHWs off the coast of Western Australia and reveals a previously unrecognised connection between ocean warming off Queensland and Tasman Sea low-pressure systems associated with the negative phase of the STRH. Our research emphasizes the importance of considering multiple drivers and their compounding effects on MHWs by showing significant changes to typical La Niña MHW patterns with the additional influence of the MJO. By considering drivers acting in the S2S timescale, forecasts can more accurately capture the timing, intensity, and spatial extent of MHW events within a season. These improved forecasts can enhance the ability of marine managers to adapt and allocate resources based on evolving climate conditions, enabling effective implementation of harm minimisation strategies.

Assessment of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in CMIP6 Models Based on Moisture Mode Theory

AbstractThe moist processes of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models are assessed using moisture mode theory‐based diagnostics over the Indian Ocean (10°S–10°N, 75°E–100°E). Results show that no model can capture all the moisture mode properties relative to the reanalysis. Most models satisfy weak temperature gradient balance but have unrealistically fast MJO propagation and a lower moisture‐precipitation correlation. Models that satisfy the most moisture mode criteria reliably simulate a stronger MJO. The background moist static energy (MSE) and low‐level zonal winds are more realistic in the models that satisfy the most criteria. The MSE budget associated with the MJO is also well‐represented in the good models. Capturing the MJO's moisture mode properties over the Indian Ocean is associated with a more realistic representation of the MJO and thus can be employed to diagnose MJO performance.

Intraseasonal response of marine planktonic ecosystem to summertime Madden-Julian Oscillation in the South China Sea: A model study

In summer, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) greatly influences the intraseasonal variability of the South China Sea (SCS). Previous studies have revealed MJO effects on surface chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, but the impact of the MJO on the ecosystem's structure and functionality remains unexplored. Here, we investigated the marine ecosystem response to the MJO by analyzing phytoplankton pigment data collected in cruises from 2010 to 2014. The results indicated the strong influence of the MJO on the structure of phytoplankton size classes (PSCs) in the upper 50 m of the SCS basin. To further explore the ecosystem's response to MJO, we utilized a well-calibrated physical-biogeochemical model (ROMS-CoSiNE) of the SCS to conduct numerical experiments with and without MJO forcings. Our model demonstrated that MJO-induced deep mixing and upwelling increased nutrients in the upper layer, increasing the Chl concentration with a higher proportion of nanophytoplankton (15 %) and a lower proportion of picophytoplankton (−20 %). Moreover, The MJO-forced model experiment exhibited a substantial enhancement in primary production (56 %) and export production (23 %), resulting in a notable decrease in the e-ratio. This reduction in the e-ratio cannot be attributed to changes in PSCs but can be explained by the time lag between primary and export production. This lag was prolonged by the physical processes of upwelling and mixing, which slows down the particle sinking. Our results emphasize the important role of MJO in regulating the ecosystem at intraseasonal scale, thus improving our comprehension of the nonsteady dynamics of ecosystems in the SCS.

Impact of Deforestation in the Maritime Continent on the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Abstract Deforestation is a major issue affecting both regional and global hydroclimates. This study investigated the effect of deforestation in the Maritime Continent (MC) on tropical intraseasonal climate variability. Using a global climate model with credible Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) simulations, we examined the effect of deforestation over the MC region by replacing the forest canopy with grassland. The results revealed that under constant orographic and land–sea contrast forcing, the modification of the canopy over the MC altered the characteristics of the MJO. We noted the amplification of the MJO and increases in wet–dry fluctuation and the zonal extent. We analyzed more than 100 MJO cases by performing K-means clustering and determined that the continuous propagation of the MJO over the MC increased from 35% in the control experiment to 61% in the deforestation experiment. This phenomenon of less blocked MJO over the MC in the deforestation run was associated with more substantial precipitation, increased soil moisture, and a suppressed diurnal cycle in land convection. Furthermore, when the MJO convection was over the Indian Ocean (IO), we observed the enhancement of low-level moisture over the MC region in the deforestation experiment. Grassland surface forcing provides a thermodynamic source for triggering instability in the atmosphere, resulting in low-level moisture convergence. The MJO exhibited a stronger energy recharge–discharge cycle in the deforestation experiment than in the control experiment, and this difference between the experiments enlarged as the MJO progressed from the IO to MC.

Local identification of equatorial Kelvin waves in real‐time operational forecasts

AbstractEquatorial Kelvin waves (KWs) are associated with a variety of equatorial atmospheric phenomena, namely, tropical convection, cloud and precipitation variability, tropical cyclogenesis, the onset of monsoon season over Africa and India, and even the quasi‐biennial oscillation and the Madden–Julian oscillation. As such, if operational forecasts are to improve near the Tropics, it is important that they correctly represent KWs. This article aims at developing a novel methodology for identifying KWs in real‐time operational forecasts at specific longitudes using only the meridional structures of the solutions to the free Laplace tidal equations, known as Hough vector functions. The main advantages of this newly proposed methodology are that (a) it can identify KWs at a specific longitude and (b) very low computational cost is needed to apply it to real‐time operational forecasts. The application of the method to 2015–2017 European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis and operational forecast data reveals a systematic bias in the representation of KWs by the ECMWF operational forecast model.

Influence of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation on tropical convection and its teleconnection to the midlatitudes in boreal winter

AbstractRecently, a connection between the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was found in observations. The boreal winter seasonal mean amplitude of the daily MJO is anticorrelated with the QBO winds measured at 50 hPa. We investigate whether this relationship is captured in reforecasts of past winters in a seasonal prediction system, and find the ensemble mean response does not show this association, with essentially zero correlation. By repeated subsampling of the ensemble reforecast data, we also show that the observed correlation is very unlikely to arise merely as the result of sampling in the relatively short observational record. Instead, we conclude that the reforecasts genuinely cannot capture the observed QBO–MJO seasonal relationship. We also consider the boreal winter seasonal mean response of tropical convection to the QBO and its influence on the subtropics. We find that the reforecasts are able to capture the stationary pattern found in the observed outgoing long‐wave radiation (OLR) over the tropical west Pacific in response to the QBO. We also find that the associated upper tropospheric divergence in observations interacts with the west Pacific subtropical jet to produce atmospheric Rossby wave patterns that propagate across the midlatitude Pacific Ocean. These extratropical waves have the potential to interfere with the climatological waves in midlatitudes, modifying the strength of the midlatitude annular mode through interactions with the extratropical stratosphere. However, the observed influence on wavenumber 1 is not captured by the reforecasts, suggesting a weak extratropical influence and a partial explanation for the weaker‐than‐observed QBO teleconnection to the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation.