Macroeconomic Trends Research Articles

Формирование и использование человеческого капитала: современные вызовы

The article describes the scientific approaches to the definition of «human capital», the direction of formation and effective use of human capital. Investigated macroeconomic trends in business and training system, influencing the formation of human capital.The role and features of the formation of human capital in our country are revealed.

The policy response to macroeconomic and fiscal imbalances in Italy in the last fifteen years

This paper reviews the main macroeconomic trends and the debate on policy priorities in Italy since the advent of EMU. It argues that, in the decade up to the outbreak of the global crisis (1998-2007), in Italy the reform process came to a virtual standstill and fiscal policy was inconsistent with the commitments taken on at the European level. The paper suggests that the lack of resolute policy reactions to the institutional dysfunctions and structural weaknesses was due to the fragmentation of the political constituency, while a variety of favourable contingent factors masked the difficulties of the productive system. Had Italy been better positioned in terms of public finances and structural features in 2007, some of the adverse effects of the global and sovereign crises would have been avoided. JEL Classification : E6, H3, K0, N1 Keywords: EMU, fiscal policy, macroeconomic imbalances, global crisis

Sharp Right Turn: Globalization and Gender Equity

Research on trends in globalization, particularly its neoliberal variant, has exploded but sources linking these trends to gender equity are difficult to uncover. Discussed mainly in the context of development, gender issues tend to be marginalized from the larger globalization picture. With World Bank as a backdrop, this article disentangles development from the process to inspect the connection between neoliberal globalization (NLG) and gender equity. This is accomplished through three cost-benefit analyses: an overall evaluation of NLG; how gender equity unfolds under NLG; and how it unfolds under NLG in China. Macroeconomic trends supplemented with examples documenting the plight of women under NLG policies, including garment industry workers in Bangladesh, suggest heightened gender peril ushered in with NLG. China's “state capitalism” modification of NLG, however, tends to mitigate negative consequences for women. A paradigm shift from hegemonic NLG to state capitalism models may offer successful global economic policies that are especially beneficial to women. I conclude with an epilogue reflecting on my original remarks in light of the horrific factory collapse that occurred in Bangladesh less than a month after this address.

How Far Away is a Single European Labor Market?

A Single European Labor Market, particularly involving the free movement of workers within Europe, has been a goal of the European community since the 1950s. Whereas it may entail opportunities and drawbacks alike, the benefits – such as greater economic welfare for most citizens – are supposed to outweigh the losses. However, over fifty years after the aim was first established, a Single European Labor Market has not yet been achieved. This paper gives an overview of current European macroeconomic trends, with a particular focus on the Great Recession, and also explores the drivers of and obstacles to labor mobility. Complementarily, it analyzes the results of a unique opinion survey among labor market experts, as well as formulates policy recommendations to enhance mobility. The development of a Single European Labor Market is also discussed in relation to the German model.

Calculation of system risk in a dynamical bank network system

There have been many researches and rich results on the system risk in bank network systems that use complex network theory. Researches to date focus on the relationship between the contagion of the risk and the structure of the network after risk bursting, based on the assumptions that the accumulation of the system risk in network systems has approached the critical point of bursting and that the network is static (both the node and connection of the bank network are static).However, the problem why the system risk accumulates gradually and finally bursts in the network has not been addressed yet. The study on the system risk accumulation can only be conducted in dynamically evolving bank network systems; and the risk can be observed clearly only if the system risk is evaluated quantitatively. Therefore, a dynamically evolving complex bank network system, which has nodes of dynamic behavior and exhibits macroeconomic trends, is modelled first in the present paper. A lending-borrowing algorithm and a multi-term clearing algorithm for the dynamic bank network system are designed, and the method for calculating the system risk is proposed also. Finally, the system risk is calculated and analyzed by simulation. The curve of the system risk evolving with time is shown and the process of the accumulation of the system risk can be observed clearly. Researches in the present paper are to lay a foundation for the quantitative study of the system risk accumulation in dynamically evolving bank network systems.

Strategic directions on innovation management – a conceptual framework

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to identify forthcoming fields of innovation management themes with an outline for the most important areas and directions of academic research and management practice.Design/methodology/approachKey trends in innovation research are derived from an extensive literature review. In addition, major macroeconomic trends and new technologies were identified to finally develop a conceptual framework.FindingsThe paper identifies seven major fields for future research in innovation management theory and practice. These areas are namely customer orientation, network organisation, sustainability, frugality, intellectual property, business model and global innovation. Based on the paper literature review, the paper develops a conceptual framework built on intra‐firm and external openness as well as the short‐ and long‐term strategic perspective. Future research areas are finally introduced.Originality/valueThe paper shows a new conceptual framework and establishes a holistic view of innovation management themes in the next years. Based on the framework, future research areas may be identified and managers can identify important concepts.

Investor sentiment and stock prices in the subprime mortgage crisis

As evidence from existing literature contradicts classical finance suggesting that there is room for investor sentiment in stock prices, and there is evidence that indicates a possible change in this relationship in the subprime mortgage crisis (since 2007), this paper uses several methods to measure investor sentiment for both individual and institutional investors in the U.S., and then frees it from macroeconomic trends. The Granger-causality test is used to ensure that it is investor sentiment causing stock market price changes, and not vice versa. Changes in stock market prices are then regressed on changes in the investor sentiment data freed of macroeconomic trends. The resulting regression coefficients from before and during the crisis are compared to determine the impact the subprime mortgage crisis has had on the relationship between investor sentiment and stock market prices. Out of the five investor sentiment indexes used, only two exhibit significant causality in the desired direction (the Individual One-Year Confidence Index and the Individual Valuation Confidence Index, both from Yale). For the Individual One-Year Confidence Index, strong statistical evidence is found that the predictive power of investor sentiment over stock market prices has increased in the subprime mortgage crisis.

Forecasting New Jersey's Electricity Demand Using Auto-Regressive Models

Forecasting is an important tool in planning and policy making. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for power systems planning, efficient dispatching of electricity in the grid and to forecast other macro-economic trends. This paper summarizes and presents auto-regressive techniques/processes as a practical tool in forecasting electricity demand. This paper attempts to model the long-term electricity demand for New Jersey using three different auto-regression models: ARMAX (autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables) model, Vector auto-regressions (VAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR). The application of VAR/BVAR to electricity demand forecasting is relatively new and untested. The forecasting performance of each model is assessed using different forecast error metrics. For the given case study, the VAR model produced the best forecast.

Italy, Germany, Japan: From Economic Miracles to Virtual Stagnation

Over the last six decades, economic developments in the three countries that were defeated in World War II look strikingly similar. First came rapid reconstruction. Then followed the economic miracles of the Golden Age. The years that went from the first oil shock to the mid-1990s still saw fairly robust, and relatively similar, economic developments. Finally, during the last 15 years, the three countries held the dubious record of having the lowest output growth rates in the OECD area. The paper looks primarily at Italy, using the examples of Germany and Japan to search for parallels and contrasts. Among similarities, the main one lies in overall macroeconomic trends. The main differences are in economic policies (where Germany and Japan followed a much more orthodox stance than Italy), in institutional set-ups (with Italy much less efficient than Germany and Japan), in labour market relations (with much greater conflict in Italy than in the other two countries), and in regional developments (where Italy was handicapped by the presence of the Mezzogiorno, while Germany and Japan were hardly touched by regional differentials, at least until unification in Germany. Indeed, had Italy’s government institutions, labour market relations and regional differentials been less problematic, Italy’s growth performance might well have been superior to that of both Germany and Japan.

Public housing in Australia: A case of advanced urban marginality?

AbstractThe decision in the early 1990s to cut back on the building of public housing intensified the already dire shortage of affordable housing and increased the marginalisation of the sector. To be eligible for public housing, new entrants usually have to be in ‘greatest need’. This study argues that the shift in the eligibility criteria for accessing public housing means that public housing estates increasingly reflect what Loïc Wacquant calls ‘advanced urban marginality’. The article assesses whether the features of advanced urban marginality that are identified by Wacquant capture and can be usefully used to analyse the shifts and contemporary characteristics of public housing. The article draws on existing data and in-depth interviews with 33 older (aged more than 65 years) public housing tenants in Sydney, Australia, to analyse the residualisation of public housing using the features of advanced marginality identified by Wacquant – ‘wage labour as a vector of social instability and life insecurity’, ‘functional disconnection from macroeconomic trends’, ‘territorial fixation and stigmatisation’, ‘spatial alienation and the dissolution of place’, ‘loss of hinterland’ and ‘social fragmentation and symbolic splintering’. The study concludes that although Wacquant’s analysis is useful and captures much of what has occurred in public housing estates in Sydney, in many instances, public housing remains a source of pride for its tenants and provides them with the basis for a good life.

Position of Entrepreneurship in Serbia Influenced By Transition Process and Macroeconomic Trends

Position of Entrepreneurship in Serbia Influenced By Transition Process and Macroeconomic Trends

Contending with liberalisation: crisis and recovery of the Argentine banking sector in the period of 1994 to 2011

From the early 1990s until 1998, Argentina liberalised its banking system as part of a strategy to enter a globalised economy. The subsequent monetary policies, combined with ‘convertibilidad’ and an elevated government debt, led to a loss of confidence in the financial system, ending in the deep recession of 1998–2002. A sovereign debt default of $100 billion in December 2001 followed, and in January 2002 the fixed exchange regime was officially abandoned. This paper examines how firm-specific characteristics and the overall financial and macroeconomic environment affected Argentine bank profitability over the period 1994-2011. We use a large panel data of 62 commercial banks drawn from the Bankscope database. Our findings highlight that internal characteristics of banks (i.e., capitalisation, credit risk, operating expenses), financial environment of the banking industry and macroeconomic trends such as the growth in GDP per capita income have a significant effect on bank returns. Finally, we discuss policy outcomes including the way Central Bank of Argentina handled the crisis and trends in the banking industry. This study seeks to draw the strategic implications for banking systems in developing countries that are contending with globalisation.

Family, Poverty and Inequalities in Latin America and the Caribbean

This article adopts the concept of development as freedom and the relationship between income and capabilities to analyze and compare macroeconomic, demographic and poverty trends and inequalities in Latin American and the Caribbean countries, and the responses from governments to promote the inclusion of the poorest and marginalized population groups in development and policies. Differences in population structures indicate that poverty and gender, generational and race inequalities fragment societies. Policies oriented to reduce poverty have been implemented with a set of combined programs such as cash transfers articulated with actions in nutrition, health, education, day-care programs for poor children, civil registration and other programs to promote poverty reduction and the conciliation of domestic and work life for poor women and social protection. Some good practices are discussed, particularly in Brazil and Mexico. During the last 15 years, the Conditioned Cash Transfers programs raised public support and political consensus, guaranteeing continuity in their implementation, development and integration with other social protection programs. Currently there are 18 countries implementing such programs, covering approximately 25 million households and over 133 million people, representing 19% of the Latin American and Caribbean. Policies to reduce poverty, in combination with income distribution and social protection in nutrition, health, education, civil registration and day-care for children, have contributed to human development, and also promoted internal market of consumers, even in rural areas, mobilizing local economies and promoting the return of investments to development. Despite the economic crisis in 2008-2009, Latin America had a relatively good performance in the world economy, demonstrating that social and economic inclusion can be compatible with development. That positive balance is fundamental to guarantee the inclusion of rural, indigenous, women and youth in access to services, as well as to reducing poverty and inequalities in the region.

An Internationalization Model to Enter the Northern Triangle Market

An internationalization model is proposed for a Colombian company specialized in design and consulting engineering services related to the energy sector. The study of these services is relatively new in internationalization and competitiveness, therefore of great interest for research purposes. The model is created with the purpose of conquering the Northern Triangle market (Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador). Different internationalization theories,such as the Eclectic Paradigm, the Uppsala Model and the Five Competitive Forces were considered. Different assessments were carried out based on qualitative and quantitative data through the case study method in which analyses were performed to generate and evaluate the main variables in the model. Outcomes assure that, HMV Ingenieros Ltda (a Colombian company) is prepared to start commercial presence in the Northern Triangle considering the Step-by-Step model as the way to reach the studied market. In addition, analysis of macroeconomic trends finds Guatemala as the best potential market.

Would economic recovery imply fiscal stabilization in Serbia?

For many years Serbia has been running fiscal deficit, which has considerably increased since 2008, leading to rise in public debt from 29.2% of GDP in 2008 to 60.3% of GDP in the end of 2012. This paper is aimed at resolving the dilemma if the economic recovery would be sufficient to reduce large fiscal deficit in Serbia or additional fiscal consolidation measures have to be implemented. Since the actual fiscal deficit is the result of macroeconomic trends and policies, in order to answer this question it is necessary to exclude the effects of cyclical trends in macroeconomic aggregates on fiscal deficit. Although new EU fiscal rules impose limit to cyclically-adjusted deficit (at 0.5% of GDP), in the countries facing high foreign trade imbalance not only cyclical trends in output, but also the impact of absorption gap has to be accounted. In this paper we provide econometric estimate of the size and the dynamics of structural fiscal deficit (cyclically and absorption adjusted deficit) in Serbia, in the period 2001-2012, based on quarterly macroeconomic data. The results suggest that most of the fiscal deficit in Serbia is structural in its nature. After the initial consolidation in 2002 and 2003, structural fiscal deficit in Serbia was relatively low (below 2% of GDP) in the period 2004-2006, and rose sharply starting from 2007, so to achieve 6% of GDP in 2012. We also quantify the impact of particular tax/expenditure measures which contributed to creation of structural fiscal deficit in Serbia. Based on the results, economic recovery will not lead to substantial decline in fiscal deficit in Serbia, which is why it will be necessary to perform fiscal consolidation through significant cut in public expenditures and slight increase in taxes.

Microeconomic fundamentals (of the structural changes) of the Serbian economy in the period 2007 - 2011 and forthcoming challenges

This paper aims to detect and analyze the structural changes in the Serbian economy in the period spanning from 2007 to 2011. This period was characterized by the eruption of the global financial and economic crisis, which spilled over in Serbia from late 2008. By pinpointing the crisis' effects on Serbian economy, we improve the approach by complementing the macroeconomic trends analysis (as a way to describe the general environment) with the firm-level data analysis, i.e. microeconomic fundamentals of the representative sample of the largest Serbian companies. Relying on the financial database of the 5,000 largest for the period from 2007 to 2011 used for statistical analysis of financial performances, and 500 largest for 2011 and 2010 used for complementing previous overall view with the case by case approach, we are trying to draw conclusions on the key structural changes within the companies and sectors of activities as well as the main characteristics of the financial position of the real sector. Finally, we make a list of imminent challenges and goals confronting the Serbian economy as a whole, and economic decision makers in particular.

Responding to a Monetary Superpower: Investigating the Behavioral Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy

Between 2002 and 2006, the Federal Reserve set interest rates significantly below the rates suggested by well-known monetary policy rules. There is a growing body of research suggesting that this helped fuel an excess of liquidity in the U.S. that contributed to the 2008 worldwide financial crash. It is less well known that a number of other central banks also lowered interest rates during this period. An important question, then, is what role the Federal Reserve played in influencing other central banks to alter their own monetary policies, which could have magnified the Fed’s actions in creating global liquidity. This paper addresses the issue by showing how spillovers in central bank behavior occur in theoretical rational expectations models. It then establishes empirically how U.S. monetary policy actions affect the actions of other major central banks, particularly in terms of interest rates and currency interventions. The models and data suggest that the U.S. lowering its policy rate, either in general or in reference to a monetary policy rule, influences other central banks to lower their own policy rates and intervene in currency markets, even when controlling for worldwide macroeconomic trends. It thus appears that U.S. actions were a factor in the worldwide lowering of interest rates and the increase in currency reserves in the early 2000s that may have contributed to the subsequent global liquidity boom.

Linear and asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks in an oil‐importing and ‐exporting economy: the case of Nigeria

AbstractGiven its economic structure, high‐energy intensity and its simultaneity as an oil‐importing and ‐exporting economy, Nigeria stands out as a special case to study the oil price–macroeconomy relation. By using a structural vector autoregressive model with 10 theoretically derived structural factorizations, this paper studies the linear and asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on the Nigerian economy, focusing on the supply side effects, wealth transfer effects, inflation effects and real balance effects of oil price shocks between the period 1970Q1 and 2008Q4. Overall, the results show that oil price shocks have asymmetric impacts in one direction (positive) on the Nigerian economy and are not a major determinant of macroeconomic activity in Nigeria. Using Granger causality analysis, the paper also investigates the short‐run impacts of oil price shocks on the Nigerian economy. The results showed that depending on the measurement of oil price shock used, it only Granger‐caused output and inflation in the short run. This revealed that though Nigeria is a major exporter of crude oil, domestic macroeconomic trends do not significantly influence the dynamics of global oil markets, i.e. oil prices are strictly exogenous to the Nigerian economy. These insights have inspired us to recommend that the common practise of national development planning, premised on forecasts of anticipated oil prices should be de‐emphasized in Nigeria.

Monetary crisis: A 2012 update

AbstractThe authors of this article, both professors of finance, have taken a new look at the ongoing monetary crisis. The trends they see are very sobering. They predict that 2012 will be viewed as a pivotal point in history—when rational business planning, based on macroeconomic trends and data, became nearly impossible. The normal business cycle has been replaced by a sustained pattern of high unemployment and abnormally slow growth—combined with a lurking threat of either a full‐blown depression or hyperinflation. And political gridlock in Washington and Europe means governments cannot develop a long‐term solution. To help companies safely navigate these choppy seas, the authors carefully evaluate what is knowable, what businesses should expect, and what should be done. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Local macroeconomic trends and hospital admissions for child abuse, 2000–2009

Child: Care, Health and DevelopmentVolume 38, Issue 6 p. 912-912 CURRENT LITERATURE Local macroeconomic trends and hospital admissions for child abuse, 2000–2009 Richard Reading, Richard ReadingSearch for more papers by this author Richard Reading, Richard ReadingSearch for more papers by this author First published: 10 October 2012 https://doi.org/10.1111/cch.12006_4Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume38, Issue6November 2012Pages 912-912 RelatedInformation