Macroeconomic Trends Research Articles

Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends

The effect of changes in demographic structure on medium-run trends of key macroeconomic variables is estimated using a Panel VAR of 21 OECD economies. The panel data variability assists the identification of direct effects of demographics, while the dynamic structure uncovers long-term effects. Young and old dependants are found to have a negative impact while workers contribute positively. We propose a theoretical model, highlighting the relationship between demographics, innovation and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of population aging and reduced fertility is found to reduce output growth and real interest rates across OECD countries.

On the road to the in-between city: Excavating peripheral urbanisation in Chicago’s ‘Crosstown Corridor’

This paper critically engages the uneven distribution of infrastructure provision, connectivity and mobility in contemporary neoliberal urban landscapes by uncovering the path-dependent trajectories and politics of transportation in post-suburbia. Departing from contemporary debates on the evolving geography of urban peripheries, I utilise a relational theorisation of the ‘in-between city’ to empirically unpack the urbanisation processes internalised in the evolution of the ‘ Zwischenstadt’ in a North American context. Through a longue durée case study of transportation planning, politics and spatial practice in Chicago’s ‘Crosstown Corridor’, in-between urbanisation is demonstrated to express an on-going multiscalar mediation of co-habiting modes of urbanism and strategic state actions that challenge generalised (sub)urbanisation narratives. Despite continued interest from planners, politicians and business groups, proposals for both a major urban expressway and rapid transit line have proved political lightning rods. Consequently, neighbourhood protests, personal political battles and macro-economic trends have locked-in a neglected development pathway for Chicago’s inner suburbs. I argue that through disclosing key contradictory political-economic imperatives and conflicting scales of mobility, it is possible to identify space for political and planning interventions that can adapt to, and develop, polycentric urban practice in and through in-between urban space.

China’s macroeconomic trends in downward pressures: the ‘micro stimulus’ effects and steady growth

This study reports China’s macroeconomic trends in downward pressures and discusses the effects of the ‘micro stimulus’ on the growth performance of Chinese economy. It appears that economic growth rebounds significantly in the short term every time ‘micro stimulus’ is applied, but the economy slows down again once the stimulus dwindles. China’s economic growth thus exhibits a pattern of significant ‘stimulus-dependence’. When facing economic downturn, China has only resorted to stimulus policy to sustain growth. Not surprisingly, our findings indicate that ‘micro stimulus’ cannot realize the strategic intent of growth stabilization and structural adjustment, and may even lead to more structural chaos. One problem that can be attributed to the near-sighted strategy is the worsening productivity performance since the financial crisis of 2008. Therefore both improvement in social security systems and social programs designed for maintaining long run growth are needed in order to improve productivity performance on the one hand and to facilitate structural adjustments on the other.

OECD Structural Analysis Databases: Sectoral Principles in the Study of Markets for Goods and Services

This study focuses on the characteristics of the information database of the OECD structural business statistics in the analysis of markets of goods and services, and macroeconomic trends. The system of indicators of structural statistics is presented in OECD publications and on-line access to a wide range of users. Collected data sources generated by the OECD offices are based on the national statistical offices of country-members, Russia and the BRICS. Data on the development of economic sectors are calculated according to the methodology of individual countries, regional and international standards: annual national accounts of countries, annual industry and business surveys, methodology of short-term indicators, statistics of international trade in goods. Data are aggregated on the basis of complex indicators statements of the enterprises' questionnaire and business surveys. Information system of structural statistics which is available and continuously updated, has certain features. It is composed of several subsystems: Structural Statistics on Industry and Services, EU entrepreneurship statistics, Indicators of Industry and Services, International Trade in Commodities Statistics. The grouping of industries is based on the International standard industrial classification of all economic activities (ISIC). Classification of foreign trade flows is made in accordance with the Harmonized system of description and coding of goods. The structural statistics databases comprise four classes of industries' grouping according to the technology intensity. The paper discusses the main reasons for the non-comparability of data in the subsystems in certain time intervals.

Sovereign Wealth Funds: A Strategic Governance View

Recent tectonic, global, economic and political shifts have spurred the emergence of new organizational forms such as sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), state-owned investment organizations without pension liabilities, arising primarily in emerging and frontier markets. Although scholars have begun to explore SWF macroeconomic trends, little is known about the challenges these institutional investors face or about their strategic capabilities to address these concerns. Drawing on comparative and strategic corporate governance research, we develop an organizing framework to better understand the firm-level characteristics of SWFs and their consequences. Our analysis of these investment funds’ multidimensional strategic governance traits contributes to the literature on state capitalism and comparative corporate governance.

The Political Economy of Religious Revival

AbstractThis article assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the religious economy approach by applying it to the religious revival across contemporary Russia and China. This comparison shows that the religious economy framework is beneficial in explaining some aspects of the communist and post-communist religious change, including macroeconomic market trends and why some faiths thrive while others fail. However, it has less explanatory power in explaining religious-state relations under market constraints — that is, how religious groups interact with state regulators to survive and grow; the range of options available to religious actors and their payoffs; and the political consequence of this interaction. This article draws on fieldwork in both countries to illustrate the benefits of grounding the religious economy approach more deeply in politics. The political economy of the marketplace reveals how and why religious groups engage the state to survive, and that they are becoming influential political and economic actors.

Farm wages and public works

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) on farm sector wage rate. This identification strategy rests on the assumption that all districts across India would have had similar wage trends in the absence of the program. The author argues that this assumption may not be true due to non-random allocation of districts to the program’s three phases across states and different economic growth paths of the states post the implementation of NREGS.Design/methodology/approach– To control for overall macroeconomic trends, the author allows for state-level time fixed effects to capture the differences in growth trajectories across districts due to changing economic landscape in the parent-state over time. The author also estimates the expected farm sector wage growth due to the increased public work employment provision using a theoretical model.Findings– The results, contrary to the existing studies, do not find support for a significantly positive impact of NREGS treatment on private cultivation wage rate. The theoretical model also shows that an increase in public employment work days explains very little of the total growth in cultivation wage post 2004.Originality/value– This paper looks specifically at farm sector wage growth and the possible impact of NREGS on it, accounting for state specific factors in shaping farm wages. Theoretical estimates are presented to overcome econometric limitations.

The Analysis of Poverty Variables in the Balkan Region- the Case of Kosovo

Poverty continues to remain a major challenge during the whole period of transition, since the collapse of communism and which is continuing even today. In this article, the macroeconomic trends in the Balkan region are treated in synthesized way, with a special emphasis on Kosovo for the years of transition. In addition, the paper is focused on some economic indicators that have direct or indirect impact on labour market policies and employment policies. The trend of these indicators is analyzed in terms of nominal and real convergence, aiming at the progress of the Kosovo economy during the years of transition in the process of integration into the current level where it is located, as well as the challenges that has faces in meeting other standards in political and economic system. The focus of this analysis are the employment policies as well as the structural reforms, institutional reforms of the labour market, policies for the reduction of the unemployment rates, generating of new work places, taking into account the fact that in Kosovo the unemployment especially at young people is very high. The purpose of this study is to identify the current state of poverty, considering that the state should take some measures to reduce its level by being based on market instruments of labour and employment policies, migration, remittances and their impact on the labour market, its structuring and their components in the Balkan region, but with particular focus on Kosovo. Poverty is a cycle that is repeated constantly and has negative impacts not only on the economy of a country but also on the lives of its citizens. Its causes are as complex as poverty itself. On the other hand, poverty reduction is as a result of economic growth. In the reduction of poverty, government plays a very important role. So, the government with its policies can cause an increase in the economic growth and then reduce the poverty level. The situation, instead of being relaxed, nowadays, it is experiencing difficult times. This is happing because the world today is undergoing through a global financial crisis which had started in the United States in 2008 and which has spread all around the globe. It can be said that this global financial crisis has been the longest that this world has recognized. For this reason, to the government of a country is added one more task, which is even more difficult, that through its policies to do the impossible in order to overcome this crisis and to send the respective country towards economic development, and thus to reduce poverty. DOI: 10.5901/ajis.2015.v413s2p297

전기조명의 사회기술전환 연구 : 백열램프에서 형광램프로

Technology for electric lighting has been evolving from Incandescent Lamp(IL) through Fluorescent Lamp(FL) and currently to Solid State Lighting(SSL) such as LED for more than 130 years of time. However, it took more than 100 years until the transition from IL to FL across overall society. That is because the transition is the Socio-Technical Transition(STT) which involves various social elements. This study investigated and analyzed the theories regarding STT, and applied the Multi-Level Perspective(MLP) theory to the case of electric lighting. A qualitative contents analysis was used with secondary data as research method, and the analyzed result was visualized based on the frame of MLP theory. The STT of electric lighting from IL to FL took place as the order of Technical Niche, Socio-Technical Regime and Landscape. Specifically, in Technical Niche level: Establishing Market Niche, Price-Performance Improvement, Learning Process and Support of Powerful Group took place. In Socio-Technical Regime level: Changes in Social Network, Changes in Technology and Changes in Rules. In Landscape level: Macro-Political Development, Socio-Economic Trends and Macro-Economic Trends took place in consecutive order.

The impact of pharmaceutical innovation on premature mortality, cancer mortality, and hospitalization in Slovenia, 1997-2010.

In Slovenia during the period 2000-2010, the number of years of potential life lost before the age of 70 years per 100,000 population under 70 years of age declined 25 %. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that pharmaceutical innovation played a key role in reducing premature mortality from all diseases in Slovenia, and to examine the effects of pharmaceutical innovation on the age-standardized number of cancer deaths and on hospitalization from all diseases. Estimates and other data were used to calculate the incremental cost effectiveness of pharmaceutical innovation in Slovenia. Longitudinal disease-level data was analyzed to determine whether diseases for which there was greater pharmaceutical innovation-a larger increase in the number of new chemical entities (NCEs) previously launched-had larger declines in premature mortality, the age-standardized number of cancer deaths, and the number of hospital discharges. My methodology controls for the effects of macroeconomic trends and overall changes in the healthcare system. Premature mortality from a disease is inversely related to the number of NCEs launched more than 5 years earlier. On average, the introduction of an additional NCE for a disease reduced premature mortality from the disease by 2.4 % 7 years later. The age-standardized number of cancer deaths is inversely related to the number of NCEs launched 1-6 years earlier, conditional on the age-standardized number of new cancer cases diagnosed 0-2 years earlier. On average, the launch of an NCE reduced the number of hospital discharges 1 year later by approximately 1.5 %. The estimates imply that approximately two-thirds of the 2000-2010 decline in premature mortality was due to pharmaceutical innovation. If no NCEs had been launched in Slovenia during 1992-2003, the age-standardized number of cancer deaths in 2008 would have been 12.2 % higher. The NCEs launched in Slovenia during 2003-2009 are estimated to have reduced the number of hospital discharges in 2010 by 7 %. If we assume that pharmaceutical expenditure was the only type of expenditure affected by pharmaceutical innovation, the cost per life-year saved was <euro>3,953, which is well below even the lowest estimates of the value of a life-year saved. Moreover, 85 % of the increase in drug expenditure may have been offset by a reduction in hospital expenditure; therefore. the cost per life-year saved may have been only €611.

Mandatory Disclosure and Firm Behavior: Evidence from Share Repurchases

ABSTRACT This paper examines changes in corporate behavior around the 2003 modification to SEC Rule 10b-18, which mandates enhanced disclosure of repurchase transactions. Firms announce significantly fewer and slightly smaller open market repurchase plans in the enhanced disclosure environment. However, completion rates (the amount of stock repurchased as a percentage of the announced amount) significantly increase. More conservative announcement strategies and more aggressive completion rates are consistent with a decline in false signaling. Indeed, open market repurchase announcements are viewed as more credible, on average, in the enhanced disclosure environment; after controlling for firm characteristics, cumulative abnormal announcement returns are significantly greater in the high disclosure period. As with any analysis based on a regulatory change affecting all firms simultaneously, other unobservable, macroeconomic trends could have affected repurchase behavior. Nonetheless, these results are consistent with significant changes in corporate behavior around new mandatory disclosures. JEL Classifications: G14; G30; G35; G38; M48; K22

Social Limitations of Maize Farmers’ Adaptation to Neoliberal Policy Reform in Mexico

This article highlights the interfaces between micro-level livelihoods, social networks, and macroeconomic trends and policies. Specifically, it analyzes the role of farmer groups in livelihood adaptation of smallholder maize producers in southern Mexico. We show how neoliberal market changes have shaped the local social structure with constraining and enabling effects on households’ ability to adapt, while in turn the outcomes of the neoliberal policy reforms are being (re)shaped by the responses of the farmers, thereby changing the structural context. We provide evidence for the heterogeneity of adaptation processes and show that farmers’ participation influences the outcomes of neoliberal policy reforms.

Standard of Living as a Factor of Countries’ Competitiveness

Abstract This study examines the relations between competitiveness of selected countries and the standard of living of their populations. The focus of this study was determined by literature review, which showed that the mentioned relation has been usually identified only implicitly, showing less emphasis on empirical study. Our research is based on international statistical reports focused on factors of competitiveness of national economies and the metrics used in evaluating the standard of living. Secondary data from several reputable sources - such as the World Bank, the Gallup Institute, and OECD - are systematized and analyzed using several statistical procedures, so as to identify structural links between the various indicators. Based on the identified relations, we discuss areas suitable for increasing the competitiveness of the countries, and we also compare them with current macroeconomic trends.

LIETUVOS NARYSTĖ EUROPOS SĄJUNGOJE: EKONOMINĖ RAIDA

This article surveys the Lithuanian economic experience related to its membership in the European Union. It provides an overview of short and medium-term macroeconomic trends as well as issues related to long-term economic development. This article reveals that the Lithuanian economy was highly volatile during the period analysed. After very fast expansion in the wake of the EU accession, the country encountered a very severe economic crisis in 2008–2010. At the same time, it must be noted that Lithuania was the most successful new EU member state in terms of economic convergence, at least when looking at how much it reduced the gap between its GDP per capita and the EU average. This article also looks at changes in the Lithuanian economic integration within the EU. It finds that economic integration in 2004–2014 increased fast in the areas of trade, investments and labour mobility in absolute terms. At the same time, the relative share of trade with EU member states declined.This article also aims to provide a discussion on the EU’s causal influence on the Lithuanian economy. It highlights the issues and complications related to such an evaluation which requires the formulation of a proper counterfactual. To this end, several potential channels of the EU’s influence are analysed. Based on economic theory and literature overview of concrete impact assessments, this article concludes that the membership’s impact was substantial and positive. In terms of different impact channels, increased trade integration, higher foreign direct investments as well as a solidified favourable institutional environment were unequivocally beneficial. At the same time, there were also some negative aspects, primarily related to higher labour mobility which contributed to economic “overheating” prior to the crisis and raises concerns about future growth prospects.

Spatial and Temporal Variabilities of Land Uses as Affected by Global Change: A Focus on Mediterranean Agriculture

At the global level, climate and socio-economic changes determine the patterns of the allocation and trade of resources in all markets. Top-Down computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, using only economics factors of production (capital and labour mostly) and ignoring natural resources constraints, look at the effects of global trends and generate trajectories of socio-economic indicators, such as prices of commodities in the global markets, volumes of trades, gross products per country and sectors. Those models are commonly used to analyse the evolution of global economies, under the pressure of climate change drivers, but their approach impose substantial simplifications in terms of spatial aggregation and interactions between socio-economic and environmental variables. A common critique concerns their limits in exploring the emergent properties of the evolving – non-linear – systems.When considering adaptation of social and ecological systems to climate change, their inherent complexity and non-linearity and their spatial and temporal variabilities put the usefulness of consolidated CGE approaches under question for long term projections. As a consequence, other methodological approaches are explored, and in particular more and more scholars explore Bottom-Up approaches, utilising mechanistic knowledge of physical/environmental phenomena and considering of behavioural diversity of economic agents, as a consequence of their diverse interactions with the surrounding environment and their bounded perceptions of the changing world. This work explores the potential for integration of the T-D and B-U approaches, with CGE models providing the macro-economic trends under the effects of global change scenarios and agent-based models (ABM) used to simulate grid-based land use change dynamics, with consideration of spatial (i.e. territorial) and temporal (i.e. climatic extremes and economic shocks) variabilities. We focus on how global change may affect land-use allocation at the local to regional level, under the influence of limited natural resources, land and water in particular. We specifically explore how constrains and competition for natural resources may induce non-linearities and discontinuities in agro-ecosystems behaviour.With the purpose to develop an approach that could be implemented worldwide as a means for zooming down from the global to the regional and local scale, an ABM prototype was developed and run with readily available global databases in three test areas around the Mediterranean Basin, in agricultural regions of Tunisia, Italy and Spain. Starting with extremely simplified and averaged settings; we sequentially introduce the available information about spatial and temporal variability and simulate the dynamics of water and land-use allocations and their consequences on economic performances. The coherency of the outcomes of ABM simulations with the macro trends provided by the CGE model is discussed in view of possible further developments in terms of improved integrated multi-scale simulation of global change scenarios and economic development.

New Member States of the European Union and the Current Trends in the World Economy

This paper describes the specifics of the current development of the world economy and discusses implications for new member states of the European Union, the EU NMS, with a small case study on the Czech Republic. The paper is divided into four parts: the trends, the EU NMS and the effects of the trends in the EU NMS and in the Czech Republic. The paper is based on a general economic analysis of data provided by the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Eurostat, the European Central Bank (ECB) and by the Czech Statistical Office (CZSO). Being familiar with recent macroeconomic trends is nowadays important for Central and Eastern European managers in order to efficiently adapt their strategies to the constantly changing business environment.

New Member States of the European Union and the Current Trends in the World Economy

This paper describes the specifics of the current development of the world economy and discusses implications for new member states of the European Union, the EU NMS, with a small case study on the Czech Republic. The paper is divided into four parts: the trends, the EU NMS and the effects of the trends in the EU NMS and in the Czech Republic. The paper is based on a general economic analysis of data provided by the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Eurostat, the European Central Bank (ECB) and by the Czech Statistical Office (CZSO). Being familiar with recent macroeconomic trends is nowadays important for Central and Eastern European managers in order to efficiently adapt their strategies to the constantly changing business environment.

Macroeconomic Trends in the New Member Countries of the European Union Before the Euro Area Debt Crisis

Abstract The objective of this paper is to outline the main macroeconomic trends in the new member countries of the European Union before the Euro Area debt crisis. In order to achieve this objective, the developments in a wide range of macroeconomic indicators (exchange rates, foreign trade, monetary policy, inflation, price levels, and fiscal balances, sovereign debt, GDP, labour productivity, composition of output and current account balances) have been analyzed. The analysis results in recommendations on the macroeconomic policies the new member countries should have implemented under global crisis condition in accordance with the peculiarities of their economies and their specific national priorities.

Economic crisis, transition and heath status of the Serbian population

Background The effects of the global economic crisis were underestimated by the Serbian government. However, economic downturn affected the whole country immediately after 2008 and raised concerns about functioning of the health system and health status of the population. The purpose of this paper is to analyze macroeconomic and health status trends and to identify points where effects of economic crisis were manifested. Methods Time series from …

The Policy Response to Macroeconomic and Fiscal Imbalances in Italy in the Last Fifteen Years

This paper reviews the main macroeconomic trends and the debate on policy priorities in Italy since the advent of EMU. It argues that, in the decade up to the outbreak of the global crisis (1998-2007), in Italy the reform process came to a virtual standstill and fiscal policy was inconsistent with the commitments taken on at the European level. The paper suggests that the lack of resolute policy reactions to the institutional dysfunctions and structural weaknesses was due to the fragmentation of the political constituency, while a variety of favourable contingent factors masked the difficulties of the productive system. Had Italy been better positioned in terms of public finances and structural features in 2007, some of the adverse effects of the global and sovereign crises would have been avoided.