Macroeconomic Situation Research Articles

ASSESSMENT OF IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON EMPLOYEE MOTIVATION

In today's globalized economy, businesses operate in a constantly changing environment, where external factors such as economic policies, exchange rates, and trade agreements can have a significant impact on their operations. The way in which these macroeconomic indicators affect employee motivation is an important consideration for enterprises, as it can have a direct impact on their bottom line. A motivated workforce is crucial for businesses to achieve their goals and maintain their competitive edge. By understanding the impact of macroeconomic indicators on motivation, businesses can make informed decisions about their human resource strategies and tailor their approach to ensure maximum productivity and job satisfaction among employees. Purpose. The purpose of this article is to analyze macroeconomic indicators and rank them by their impact on the overall population motivation level, using a mathematical model based on data from the state statistical service for 2010 to 2022. Research methods. This study uses theoretical methods (deduction, analysis, generalization) and economic and mathematical modeling. Results. The regression model developed in this study can be used to forecast the initial motivation level of the country's population towards effective and motivated work at the beginning of the next period based on the macroeconomic situation. The results can be used to select the most optimal types of motivation depending on the overall situation in the country, which can help employers attract future employees. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the gradation of the influence of the considered macroeconomic indicators on the overall level of motivation of the population. Top management and HR departments can use this information to analyze a set of macroeconomic indicators to estimate the current motivational potential of candidates more accurately, and create job descriptions that can increase the number of applicants. Conclusions. The developed economic-mathematical model includes only four indicators of influence on the overall motivation level of employees. The research can be expanded by introducing additional macroeconomic indicators to create a stable basis for choosing an optimal set of motivational components in the personnel management system of the enterprise. Keywords: macroeconomic indicators, staff motivation, unemployment rate, level of shadowing of the economy, average salary

Анализ влияния макроэкономических рисков и угроз на финансовое положение регионов Арктической зоны Российской Федерации

The article analyzes the main macroeconomic risks and threats affecting the financial situation of the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (hereinafter — the Russian Arctic) due to changes in the geopolitical situation as a result of the introduction of sanctions against the Russian Federation due to its special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. According to some Russian and foreign experts, increased sanctions pressure from a number of countries may lead not only to a recession in the economy, but also provoke a new global economic crisis, the consequences of which will be more tangible than the negative effect of the crisis of 2008–2009. Therefore, protection from internal and external threats, ensuring the stability of the financial system, creating favorable conditions for maintaining the stability of the regional economy are extremely important and necessary in the current situation. The sanctions have significantly affected the change in the existing order, so the regions of the Russian Arctic have to stabilize the financial situation and prevent some industries from recession as soon as possible. The scientific novelty of the study lies in clarifying and systematizing the conditions for the functioning of the financial system of the regions of the Russian Arctic in the context of macroeconomic risks and threats caused by the changed geopolitical situation after February 24, 2022 and the introduction of large-scale sanctions to destroy the financial sector of the Russian economy.The risks associated not only with the specific features of the regions of the Russian Arctic, but also macroeconomic factors are analyzed. It has been established that the regions of the Russian Arctic where the degree of influence of restrictive sanctions measures is determined by openness and integration into international trade due to significant mutual effects, are most at risk. The main risks can also include a decline in industrial production, an increase in unemployment, both hidden and official. Tax revenues of consolidated regional budgets may significantly decrease. It is concluded that a change in the macroeconomic situation can significantly affect the position of the regions of the Russian Arctic in terms of financial potential.

СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ ВЫЗОВЫ ESG- ПОВЕСТКИ

The research is dedicated to the transfor- mation of the Russian ESG agenda in the current economic and political conditions. The article discusses the relevance of the ESG agenda in the short and long term peri- ods, the impact of sanctions on the current ESG agenda, as well as the development of the ESG in Russia, taking into account changes in the final export markets, adapta- tion of current logistics supply chains and reorientation to the markets of the Asia- Pacific region. The key challenges for the implementation of the ESG agenda in Rus- sia were analyzed, taking into account the current macroeconomic situation, and poten- tial scenarios for the further development of the ESG strategy in the Russian market were considered.

Impact of COVID-19 on European banks’ credit ratings

The aim of this paper is to analysis the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on European banks’ default risks, as measured by foreign long-term issuer credit ratings published by the main credit rating agencies. Two hypotheses are put forward: (1) The macroeconomic situation has a stronger negative impact on banks’ financial conditions during COVID-19; (2) changes in the capital adequacy, assets, management, earnings, and liquidity indicators have a significant impact on changes in banks’ credit ratings. The analysis has been prepared for the 2000–2021 period for listed and unlisted banks on the European stock exchanges, that received long-term issuer credit ratings from the main credit rating agencies. To the analysis have been used the ordered logit panel data models and the research has been made on the first differences to analyse the impact of the changes of the financial and macroeconomic conditions on the credit ratings changes. The obtained results suggest a direct and significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the credit rating changes, but a delayed reaction.

The Scarring Effect of First Job Precarity: New Evidence from a Panel Study in Hong Kong

Does entering the labour market via precarious employment have a long-term scarring effect on one’s career? Prior research proposes diverse arguments, but firm conclusions remain elusive. Using panel data from Hong Kong, this study rekindles this debate by revealing the long-lasting effect of first job precarity on workers’ subsequent career prospects. A comprehensive measure of precarious employment is constructed to simultaneously account for employment status, contractual status and occupational status, and random effects models are used to test the scarring effect of first job precarity on subsequent monthly income, job satisfaction and fringe benefits. It is also observed that macroeconomic situations, particularly periods of economic crisis, have a detrimental effect on entry into precarious employment. Importantly, the results show the substantial negative consequences of initial precarious employment, highlighting the adverse impact of economic crises on first job precarity and the subsequent scarring effect on career prospects.

Portrait of Public Debt, Fiscal Space, and Debt Impact: Islamic Finance Study on Islamic Countries Territory

Policymakers, the Public debt is a problem that the monetary and fiscal authorities have long been concerned about. The amount of public debt concerning fiscal viability and the financial crisis has received a lot of attention recently. This study's goal is to examine and evaluate how the function and impact of debt, both external and internal, on the macroeconomic situation of various countries. The researcher will present several cases of empirical evidence regarding the impact of debt on the socio-economics of a country. The main focus of this research discussion is on the theoretical study of debt and the impact of debt in various countries in the region, as well as the views of Islamic thinkers on public debt. A library study was the research methodology employed. by collecting, identifying, and analyzing articles and related references (literature review) related to the focus research. Furthermore, researchers will examine several cases of portraits of various empirical evidence concerning the country's socioeconomic debt. The findings demonstrate that an Islamic state will be successful based on its ability to collect taxes, alms, and other required and optional sources of income, as well as revenue from public works projects, real estate, and natural resources. To achieve a balanced budget and prevent wasteful spending, the state will implement the middle-at-tawasuth principle.

In the Eyes of the Beholder? Understanding Policymakers' Perceptions of Corruption

Most research on corruption attitudes focuses exclusively on voters, despite the strategic role of political elites in anticorruption efforts. To fill this research gap, we study the drivers of perceptions of corruption among legislators, using comparative longitudinal survey data of over 3000 policymakers in 18 Latin American countries. We develop a novel theoretical framework based on the influence of motivated reasoning and the moderating effect of the economic context. Our results suggest that legislators supporting the government systematically perceive lower levels of corruption in contexts of economic growth. Conversely, opposition legislators consistently consider corruption an important issue, regardless of the macroeconomic situation. Since the perceptions of corruption for legislators supporting the government are dependent on the economic context, our results show that both government and opposition legislators are likely to perceive corruption as a relevant issue during economic downturns, suggesting that economic crises can open windows of opportunity for anticorruption reforms.

Credit Risk Management: Marketing Segmentation, Modeling, Accounting, Analysis and Audit

The relevance of the research is determined by the urgency of implementing the systems of credit risk management in bank activities based on the international accounting and reporting standards. The high level of complexity of the mentioned problem is related to a significant number of credit market segments and a variety of credit forms. The aim of the research paper is to identify the risk level of individual segments in the loan portfolio at the microeconomic level taking into account macroeconomic factors. The research methods used to identify the credit risk are migration matrices, nonlinear approximation, correlation-regression analysis, statistical distributions, and forecasting. The main research results are as follows: credit segmentation of the loan portfolio was performed, a matrix of credit risk sources was constructed, default probability and default losses were quantified to reflect the expected credit losses in accounting, and the audit of construction of credit risk models was performed. The significance of the research results is determined by the possibility to measure the factors of non-stable macroeconomic situation in Ukraine while estimating the risks of functioning of banking establishments. The proposed approaches to solving the problem of credit risk management allow decreasing the volume of non-operating credits and increasing the profitability of the loan portfolio of a bank. It can be considered that the merits of the research are determining the causal relations between the separate components of credit risk, which can be effectively used to neutralize and decrease them. The emphasis was made on the tools of credit risk management represented by marketing segmentation, modeling, accounting, analysis, and audit. The prospects of further studies include clarification of the methodical approaches to credit risk management in part of the separate market segments

Macroeconomic Determinants of Credit Risk: Evidence on the Impact on Consumer Credit in Central and Eastern European Countries

Although empirical studies show that different types of loans have different risks (moreover, consumer credit risk is higher compared to other types of loans), it is common to study the credit risk of the banking sector as a whole, or of an individual bank’s whole loan portfolio, and the macro-economic factors affecting it (without grouping them by type of loan). Thus, an analysis of the credit risk of the whole loan portfolio (measured by all non-performing loans) is insufficient. Therefore, the aim of this research is to identify the macroeconomic determinants of the consumer loan credit risk and quantitatively assess their impact in Central and Eastern European countries. After the analysis of scientific literature in the field of credit risk determinants, a detailed classification of factors influencing banking credit risk is proposed. The distinguishing feature of the classification is that the factors influencing credit risk are classified at five different levels; twelve groups of general macroeconomic conditions variables were selected as the potential factors of NPLs. This classification can be useful to better understand and investigate the factors influencing banking credit risk for the whole loan portfolio (in the same way as the factors that affect the credit risk of different types of loans, e.g., consumer loans). Using the methods of constant, fixed and random-effects panel analysis, simple OLS, least squares with breakpoints regression analysis and Markov regime-switching models, the impact of the macroeconomic variables from twelve separate groups is evaluated. The data from 11 CEE countries are used, and the period from 2008 to 2020 is covered. The results of this assessment reveal that in the group of CEE countries, such variables as GDP and labour market variables appeared to have contributed to the increase in the share of non-performing consumer loans, while inflation and real estate market variables were related to the decrease in consumer NPLs; at the same time, the impact of variables form other groups appeared to be mixed-nature or insignificant. The results of this research are useful in that they allow the identification of the most important determinants of consumer loan credit risk and thus allow making assumptions about NPL changes due to the changing macroeconomic situation. In the case of Lithuania, this kind of study (assessment of macroeconomic determinants of consumer loan credit risk) was conducted for the first time. Consumer loan credit risk assessment is especially relevant in an increasing interest rate environment, and deeper analysis can help banks and other financial institutions to manage credit risk. On the other hand, a better understanding of the main influencing factors of the macroeconomic environment can help central banks and other official institutions take appropriate monetary and fiscal policy decisions to ensure a good credit transmission channel for sustainable economic growth.

Fundamental Utilization Value: Measured Based on Macro and Micro Analysis

Certain market practitioners, for instance, technical analyst and amateur investor have less attention to the results of fundamental but follow the choice of the public. Lack of theoretical basis and understanding of data, resulting in intangible loss. The purpose of this paper is an attempt to introduce fundamental analysis, taking Apple as an example, to assist novice investors in evaluating a company's securities products. The method based on fundamental analysis measures the investment value and future prospects of a company by analyzing the macroeconomic situation, which focuses on the international situation, national economic policies, and industry conditions, and the corporate financial situation, which focuses on the ratios related to cash flow, profitability, operating ability, and solvency. By integrating macro and micro, corporate value can be explored better.

Does the Belt and Road Initiative promote industrial upgrading and rationalisation and adjustment along the route?

This study uses data from 30 provinces and cities from 2010-2019 to examine the role of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on industrial restructuring and upgrading in Chinese provinces and cities along the route using the Difference-in-differences method. The results found that participation in BRI construction is mainly under favorable policies to ensure that the tertiary sector can be strongly supported for development by stabilizing the macroeconomic situation, improving infrastructure construction, attracting surplus labor to the tertiary sector and strengthening technological innovation. BRI makes the industries tend to be advanced, and the key provinces develop tertiary industries and high-end manufacturing industries when participating in BRI construction and development, take advantage of policies to strengthen foreign trade through various ways, accelerate high-quality development of service industries, and achieve innovation and upgrading. At the same time, BRI can promote the rationalisation of industrial structure, which as an inverse indicator, the initiative makes a significant reduction and promotes the industrial structure to be more in line with the local economic development. The findings of the study provide theoretical support for China's future comprehensive deepening reforms.

Regional Economic Forecasting Method Based on Recurrent Neural Network

Macroeconomic situation is the overall performance of the economic situation of a country and region. Making accurate forecasts of macroeconomic trends is of great significance for analyzing the success or failure of macroeconomic control policies, evaluating the quality of economic system operation, and correctly formulating future development planning strategies. The macroeconomic system is a nonlinear system, the environment is constantly changing, and additional disturbing factors directly affect the operation of the macroeconomic system, which has a great impact on the forecast results. The historical information required for macroeconomic modeling is unstable, unclear, and incomplete, which makes it very difficult to solve such problems with traditional forecasting methods. In response to the multivariate and nonlinear characteristics of macroeconomic forecasting, this paper proposes the application of artificial neural networks for forecasting. This paper introduces the recurrent neural network into the field of economic forecasting to solve the problems of the traditional BP (back propagation) neural network method. The experimental data are verified and the experimental results prove that the studied scheme based PSO-GRU improve the performance of economic forecasting.

Consolidated budgets of the regions of the Ural Federal district: development trends

The article is devoted to assessing trends in income and expenditure of the consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation that are part of the Ural Federal District, which were caused by the global pandemic of coronavirus infection and changes in the macroeconomic situation in the country and the world. The relevance of the study is due to the need to determine the impact of internal and external shocks on the dynamics of budget indicators and, as a result, to assess the budget balance of the execution of the consolidated budgets of the regions. A feature of the modern budget policy, implemented in special conditions, is the combination of financing new tasks, with the continuation of the implementation of the previously defined national development goals of the country. The article presents a theoretical review of scientific research in the area under study. Based on data from open official sources, using general scientific methods, the trends that have developed in the consolidated budgets of the regions of the Ural Federal District in the pandemic and post-pandemic period are shown. The authors analyzed the structure and dynamics of the revenue and expenditure side of the consolidated budgets of the regions that are part of the Ural Federal District for 2019–2021, and also identified trends in the first half of 2022. According to the growth of the revenue side of the consolidated budget among the regions that are part of the Ural Federal District for 2019–2021. Chelyabinsk and Sverdlovsk regions are in the lead. Assessing the situation with the income of the consolidated budgets of the regions of the federal district for the first half of 2022, it can be noted that more than 2/3 of the total income growth was made by the oil and gas territories of the Ural Federal District — the Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs and the Tyumen Region. The structure of expenses of the consolidated budgets of the Ural Federal District for 2019–2021 has practically not changed. In the first half of 2022, the Kurgan region showed the worst performance both in terms of income and expenses. The consolidated budget posted a record surplus in the first half of 2022 thanks to a sharp decrease in spending. As a result, the analysis of revenues and expenditures of the consolidated budgets of the regions that are part of the Ural Federal District for the analyzed period showed that differentiation in terms of the budgetary provision of the regions is increasing.

Analiza podobieństwa sytuacji makroekonomicznej i poziomu inwestycji w Unii Europejskiej w latach 2018-2020 w kontekście pandemii Covid-19

The purpose of this article was to determine the macroeconomic and investment situation in 2018-2020 in the Member States of the European Union. The work also deals with the division of the European Union into three parts: the core, the periphery, and Central and Eastern Europe. A critical analysis of the scientific literature was used to present the economic consequences of the pandemic. Ward's method was used to create a few clusters of European Union Member States that are most similar to each other in terms of macroeconomic situation and investments. During the pandemic, the macroeconomic and investment situation worsened. Moreover, there are three groups of member states in the European Union, which indicates that there are still significant development and economic disproportions between the groups in the EU.

Economic Growth by Innovative Development in Energy Sector: The Case of Oil and Gas Export in Russia

The problem of the "Dutch disease" and the impact of the raw materials complex and its export component on the economic development of Russia are actualized today in the context of the pressure of international economic sanctions on the Russian economy, when the Russian society has to solve problems that were characteristic of the Soviet Union, we mean, first of all, import substitution. In this regard, we need to understand how negatively the impact of energy exports on the socio-economic development of Russia was, while answering the question, was this development abnormal or, if so, due to what factors? Obviously, the crises in Russia in the 1990s and 2009–2011 had a nature weakly associated with raw material specialization. The purpose of this work is to identify the impact of energy exports on the economic development of Russia in retrospect with the construction of a long-term forecast of GDP growth in the Russian Federation in the context of the development of international economic sanctions. Accordingly, the objectives of the study include: to determine how economic growth in the post-Soviet period before the imposition of sanctions was affected by oil exports; secondly, to what extent oil exports influenced innovative development; thirdly, to create a predictive model for the growth of the Russian economy in the context of international sanctions (the situation with the embargo on Russian oil exports to the West). The subject of the study is the impact of oil exports on the socio-economic development of Russia, the object is the macroeconomic situation in Russia before and after international economic sanctions.

Does the Volatility of Oil Price Affect the Structure of Employment? The Role of Exchange Rate Regime and Energy Import Dependency

The volatility of oil price as a key energy resource for modern economies has a significant impact on the macroeconomic situation. In addition to affecting aggregated production, consumption, employment and inflation, oil shocks can affect the economy in a more nuanced way. One consequence of the turmoil in the oil market may be a shift in the employment structure between the tradable and non-tradable sectors, which we investigate in this paper. The aim of this study is to test how oil price volatility affects the structure of employment in Central and Eastern European countries. Our main hypothesis is that oil price volatility causes a temporal employment reallocation between tradable and non-tradable sectors. To verify this assumption, we created Interacted Panel VAR (IPVAR), which showed that the shocks of oil price volatility affect the employment structure and this impact is conditioned by the level of dependence on energy imports and the exchange rate regime. The constructed impulse response functions showed that, in general, oil price volatility causes a temporal fall in relative employment in the manufacturing (tradable) sector. For periods of an above-average import of energy, the exchange rate regime does not matter for the response of the structure of employment. Inversely, when countries are less dependent on imports of energy, the exchange rate regime matters for shock absorption—for floats, oil price shocks cause a temporal fall in relative employment in manufacturing, whereas for pegs, there is a slight relative increase in employment in manufacturing.

ASSESSMENT OF THE QUALITY OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN AGRICULTURE

The issue of economic growth is one of the main macroeconomic problems that have always interested economists. Another aspect of the problem is also manifested in the current macroeconomic situation. That is, nowadays we are talking not only about economic growth, but also about studying factors that determine its quality. However, no specific indicators have yet been found that allow it to be fully measured. In this regard, this article will try to analyze indicators of economic growth in the agricultural sector of our republic. As the main indicators that ensure quality of economic growth in agriculture, such indicators as material return, capital return and labor productivity have been chosen. As a result of the study, we found out that the return on material and capital in agriculture is declining, while the labor productivity index is increasing. In course of presentation of the materials, the definitions given to the concept of economic growth were refined, and statistical indicators that determine the quality of economic growth in agriculture were systematized. The findings obtained in the course of the study make it possible to identify the nature of economic growth and make comparisons with best practices. Specific conclusions and proposals were also made to ensure high-quality economic growth in agriculture in our country.

Macroeconomic Forecasting Based on Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregression and Neural Network Models

Macroeconomic indicators include gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI), and retail price index (RPI). These indicators are important for understanding the macroeconomic situation and controlling the macroeconomic trend, as they provide a macroscopic view of a country or region’s economic performance. If macroeconomic indicators can be predicted accurately in advance, the government and relevant macroeconomic control departments can propose more forward-looking and targeted macroeconomic control policies and deploy the necessary control measures. In addition, individuals can make more reasonable decisions on their investments and savings if they know the macroeconomic indexes in advance. From these two aspects, prediction of macroeconomic indexes is of great research significance. In this paper, we propose a prediction model based on chaotic vector autoregression and neural networks for macroeconomic forecasting, and we model and test the prediction with GDP and inflation as the main concerns, and we find that the improvement of GDP forecasting shows an increase of expected inflation rate, indicating the usefulness of using expected GDP data.

FOOD SECURITY AS THE BASIS OF NATIONAL SECURITY

One of the central problems of an independent state is the provision of its food security, that is, its ability to provide citizens with basic food products, through proper production practices and import operations. It may safely be said that for every country, more so in the relatively newly independent States, it is an even existential challenge. Despite a full understanding of the problem, its definitive and comprehensive solution is complicated by a trivial problem - limited resources, which is why the extent to which subsidy is provided by the developed countries (per unit of output, per employee or agricultural land), is far beyond the capacity of the developing countries and countries with economies in transition (that would also include Georgia). In such countries, a stereotype picture emerges: food demand remains inelastic, but low purchasing power among a large segment of the population, the weak economy and the limited capacities of providing subsidies artificially lower demand for food. In post-socialist countries with the economies in transition the situation is aggravated by the violation of the social (in fact, political) subsidy system, which has substantially changed the proportions between the volumes of consumed food products. In Georgia, almost 2/3 of the total calories consumed by the population come from food products of plant origin, which is 1.5 times higher than the recommended proportions. The main reason is that the cost of every 1000 kcal from products of plant origin consumed by the population is about 3-4 times cheaper than the cost of the same number of calories from products of animal origin. As a result, the cost of the food basket is formally reduced, a formal basis is created for reducing the subsistence minimum, but at the same time, the proportions are broken between the volumes of the consumption of proteins, fats, carbohydrates by members of society. The common pattern is to remain in force: the high correlation of food security with the level of economic development of the State, or with the macroeconomic situation. In this regard, despite the fact that the dynamics of output and value added created in the agricultural sector in recent years is no longer inferior to the dynamics of national product, but already is slightly higher (in 2020, compared to 2012, the scale of output in the agricultural sector increased by 24.6%, while in other sectors of the national economy (23.3%), the situation in this sector of the economy, especially in terms of food security, is still clearly unsatisfactory. In order to meet citizens food needs, it becomes necessary to import vast quantities of food products, whose average annual volume exceeded $1.2 billion in 2011-2020. Along with the objective circumstances impeding food security (primarily weakness of the economy), the process is also negatively affected by factors such as the insufficient political will of the ruling powers and the lack of competences of decision makers, and consequently, low levels of their productivity. Georgia, just like other civilized nations, needs to give priority attention to the agricultural sector. Priorities in this area can be in two directions: first, the preservation of the village as a territorial and social unit (this task also includes the protection of cultural and wild landscapes); second, the establishment of an agricultural sectoral structure to ensure food security. Food security is a State priority. The only entity that can solve this problem is the State itself. Achieving success on this issue in many ways depends on the effectiveness of public administration of the State as an economic entity, that is integrated with the improvement of agricultural production, its transformation into a high-tech sector and large-scale socio-economic, cultural and technical development of the rural population. We still import more than 70% of the food we need. If we want to improve the trade balance by 2027, we must significantly increase agricultural production in order to reduce foreign exchange spent on food imports.

Humanitarian Assistance in G5 Sahel: Social Sustainability Context of Macrologistics Potential

The G5 Sahel works in collaboration with various international organizations and countries, which are responsible for managing logistics activities, financial flows, and technological solutions. Humanitarian assistance holds a critically important role in the region, despite its multiple challenges and limitations in macroeconomic development. This research aimed to examine the macrologistics potential of humanitarian assistance and protection, on both national and transnational levels, in the social sustainability context. Most of the humanitarian emergencies in the region originate from conflicts, food insecurity, and malnutrition. Sahel countries require multiple initiatives to minimize the negative effects of climate change and natural disasters. The state of logistics infrastructure, a wide range of natural and man-made disasters, as well as the macroeconomic situation of the G5 Sahel, result in common problems with the organization of humanitarian logistics from the national and transboundary perspectives. Based on the selected indicators, identified problems of humanitarian assistance and protection in G5 Sahel suggest that the above-mentioned potential of logistics activities requires tightening of transnational collaboration.