Macroeconomic Processes Research Articles

Prospects for the economy and foreign trade of Ethiopia: fore cast estimates based on mathematical modeling

The article presents a forecast assessment of the development of the national economy and foreign trade of Ethiopia until 2030, calculated by the authors on the basis of a mathematical and systematic analysis of macroeconomic processes and methods of modeling these processes usingthe Box-Jenkins model (ARIMA). Estimation method: the exact maximum likelihood method. The topic seems relevant due to Ethiopia's accession to the BRICS alliance from 2024. Therefore, it is important to predict possible trends in Ethiopia's economic and foreign trade development, their significance for the country itself, as well as their impact on the economic dynamics of other BRICS countries and the association as a whole. The study is updated taking into account the continued increase in global volatility and the emergence of new threats, including in Africa. The subject is trends in the economic development of Ethiopia as a member of the BRICS. The purpose of the article is to develop a scientifically based forecast of the development of the economy and foreign trade of Ethiopia in the medium term. The article identifies potential threats to the development of the Ethiopian economy. The statistical basis of the study was mainly data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The results of the study can be used to understand the trends of socio-economic and foreign trade development of the country, adjust this development, as well as expand and enrich the theoretical concepts of the world economy. The research and author's calculations are based solely on the current circumstances and current realities, without taking into account any fundamental changes in the politics and economy of the country under study. The author's calculations and conclusions can be useful to economists, entrepreneurs, and researchers as a basis for their further practical and scientific activities.

Development and evolution of mathematical and econometric models for the analysis of macroeconomic processes (including historical perspective) and their forecasting

Practical usefulness of factor-vector autoregression has been considered, which makes it possible to study macroeconomic processes impact on the monetary policy state, to conduct full-scale monitoring and to identify economic growth impact on monetary policy. Publications devoted to the issues of unstable economic development and mathematical models describing the process of economic dynamics under conditions of high inflation and unstable development have been analyzed. The basic scenario in economy has been given. Monetary policy impact on macroeconomic variables using vector autoregressive (VAR) models has been studied. The FAVAR model with international reserves as the monetary policy variable and MIACR where the responses of one-year government bond rate and consumer index were positive have been estimated as the main instruments. The impulse responses shown indicate that the Russian authorities had a lack of monetary policy independence due to the country’s high dependence on the oil and natural gas sectors, which does not reveal evidence of monetary policy impact on lower consumer prices.

Analysis of the dynamic model of the impact of external economic shocks on inflationary processes

The past few decades by the emergence of such crises in the economic and social sphere of society, which resulted in economic supply shocks have been marked. Previously extremely rare, they have shifted the focus to the relevance of research on macroeconomic processes affected by shocks of this nature, not only in economic theory, but also in mathematical modelling. As a result of the analysis of already known macroeconomic models, it was revealed that the impact of external economic shocks on the main indicators of macroeconomics can have both negative and positive effects on economic growth. The purpose of the study is to build and analyze a dynamic optimization model, as well as recommendations for developing an optimal economic policy strategy. The article contains a description of the formulation and mathematical formalization of the macroeconomic task of levelling social damage from the impact of an external economic supply shock on the inflationary process and the unemployment rate. The connection between the two latter processes is established on the basis of the equation of the modified Phillips curve, supplemented by inflationary expectations, assuming a short-term perspective. The corresponding to this task economic and mathematical model is classified as an optimization model and represents the task of finding the conditional minimum of the loss functional. The article describes the qualitative analysis of this model, carried out using the methods of calculus of variations, formulas describing the dynamics of the above-mentioned macroeconomic indicators are obtained, a formula is derived for finding the level of inflation expectations at each moment of the time period under consideration. The obtained results of the mathematical model study are interpreted economically, while special attention is paid to the analysis of the impact of the external supply shock on these indicators.

The Search for Sources of Conflicts: Supply and Demand in the Labor Market

Classical approaches towards categorizing conflict within the field of social sciences may not be applicable to the labor market context because they are beyond economic theories. To the best of our knowledge, currently, neither national nor foreign literature contains any conceptual systematization of conflicts that occur during the hiring process. Such systematization would combine conflict factors at the intersection of economic, sociological, and conflict theories. The article proposes a categorization that is based on the prominent conflict theories while taking into consideration potential employment conflicts within the labor market. The proposed categorization groups market participants (supply and demand sides) and sorts conflicts by type (systemic and non-systemic conflicts). Four primary sources of conflict are identified, including market mechanisms and salary expectations (systemic conflicts), company values and human capital (non-systemic conflicts). Systemic factors of conflicts such as supply/ demand matching and wage expectations are determined by market mechanisms. These economic factors are determined by objective and predictable processes, but sociological theories of conflict are typically excluded from the aforementioned context, which can result in a biased portrayal of macroeconomic processes. In addition, the policy of a particular company and a job seeker’s expectations for a specific job position are nonsystemic, they depend on such types of factors as company values and human capital.This categorization enables early identification of the source of conflict and potential reduction of its destructive effects.

The History of IFRS in Russia in 1991–2021

ABSTRACT The authors analyze the trends in the application of IFRS in Russia in the post-Soviet period between 1991 and 2021. The research relies on Russian regulatory legal acts, scientific and professional publications, and the data describing the development of accounting practices in Russia. The study reviews the scale of proactive adoption of IFRS by Russian companies in the 1990s and 2000s. It also evaluates the legal support of the transition to IFRS in Russia, including the legal requirement of IFRS filing for the consolidated financial statements of Russian companies. The article reviews the Russian accounting standards in terms of their compliance with the IFRS. The authors analyze the adoption of IFRS by the public sector as well as by small and medium-size enterprises. The transition to IFRS was a natural response to the key macroeconomic processes that have changed Russia over the past 30 years of its post-Soviet reality. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: M40; M41; M48.

THE MONETARY-OPPORTUNISTIC NORDHAUS MODEL IN TARGETS OF POLITICAL BUSINESS INFLATION CYCLES

Political business cycles reflect the imperfections of democratic institutions and are accompanied by electorally motivated interventions by governments in macroeconomic processes of redistribution of gross national product. This is fraught with potential conflict between political and economic reforms, in particular, hindering the implementation of current development programs aimed at reducing the deficit, curbing money supply growth and inflation, and liberalizing currency regimes and capital markets. This results in overestimated expectations of economic actors regarding the improvement of social welfare, loss of confidence in monetary authorities, and rising inflation. The purpose of the article is to analyze the monetary-opportunistic Nordhaus model in targeting political business cycles of inflation, as well as the impact of economic determinants of cyclicality on monetary policy.

Основы координации денежно-кредитной и бюджетно-налоговой политик для обеспечения роста российской экономики

The subject of the study is monetary and fiscal policy, which are one of the basic tools for regulating economic processes in the Russian economic system, the coordination of which is an essential factor in the success of ensuring the overall effects of economic policy. The purpose of the work is to establish effective measures to respond to emerging shocks in the context of current sanctions pressure from Western countries without mutually neutralizing one type of government policy with the tools of another policy. This article examines the main instruments of the state's economic policy from the perspective of their mutual influence and interaction in order to achieve positive results for the economic system. The essence of the tax mechanism has been established. In terms of budget policy, the mechanism of subsidizing enterprises is justified. The concept of a budget rule is defined. The goals and objectives of monetary policy are highlighted. It is concluded that since simultaneous indirect influence on macroeconomic processes is carried out through the instruments of the monetary policy of the central bank and the instruments of the fiscal policy of the Government, there is a problem of mutual influence of the adopted fiscal and monetary measures in terms of neutralizing or reinforcing each other effects that can have a negative impact on the achievement of The ultimate goal of both directions of economic policy is to ensure conditions for sustainable economic growth.

CONTEMPORARY TRENDS IN THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IN UKRAINE

The article examines the impact of external and internal factors on the macroeconomic situation and business environment in Ukraine. It discusses the peculiarities of the business environment's reaction to unstable conditions, including the presence of financial reserves in companies, cost optimization, and management strategies. The influence of war on the demand and supply of services, changes in the economic structure, and new requirements for businesses are analyzed in detail. The size and basic characteristics of economic sectors are studied, and factors affecting business efficiency in Ukraine are identified. The article focuses on determining the interrelations between the development of the business environment and economic processes in Ukraine. It reviews the specificities of Ukraine's macroeconomic situation during wartime and the impact of external and internal factors on economic development. Moreover, key macroeconomic indicators are analyzed based on statistical data, and a detailed study is conducted on how full-scale war affects Ukraine's economy. The reaction of the business environment to unstable conditions, including the availability of financial reserves in companies, cost optimization, and management strategies, is also analyzed. Special attention is paid to the impact of war on demand and supply. The segments of the economy most affected by the war are examined, as well as changes in the economic structure. The size and basic characteristics of the economy are analyzed, and trends in development and factors influencing its efficiency are identified. Various methods are used in the study, including analysis of statistical data, expert surveys, and comparative analysis with macroeconomic indicators. In particular, the research is oriented towards determining the interrelations between the influence of external factors and economic processes in Ukraine. Based on the obtained data, regularities of economic development in Ukraine are formed, and a forecast for the economy's development in 2024 is constructed. The conclusions of the study may be useful for professionals interested in Ukraine's macroeconomic processes, as well as for businesses and government structures involved in strategic planning.

The Simulation Model of Enterprise Behavior Taking into Account Sensitivity to Crisis Macroeconomic Processes

The Simulation Model of Enterprise Behavior Taking into Account Sensitivity to Crisis Macroeconomic Processes

УПРАВЛЕНИЕ ОРГАНИЗАЦИЯМИ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННО-СТРОИТЕЛЬНОГО КОМПЛЕКСА В КОНТЕКСТЕ МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ ПРОЦЕССОВ

The study’s aim is to investigate the management of investment and construction complex organizations in the context of macroeconomic processes. There are analyzed the macroeconomic indicators that open planning, forecasting the supply and demand of money, vector of rates, inflation. The comparative analysis of the construction industry of Russia and USA revealed the common and special. The provisions of the models of “Inflation Gap”, “Unemployment Gap”, and modified Hicks – Hansen model are recommended for the management of complex organizations.

Modeling of Rapidly Changing Macroeconomic Processes Based on the Analysis of Jump and Generalized Functions

In recent years, the economies of many countries around the world have been in a situation of intense, rapidly changing, abrupt processes. The current situation urgently requires a change in the economic paradigm in the near future, which leads to the need to develop new conceptual models. The purpose of the article is to develop basic theoretical principles and practical approaches to modeling macroeconomic processes based on the analysis of jump and generalized functions. The objectives of the study are the following: (1) describe the main types of impulse and jump functions using examples from economic theory and practice; (2) perform an analytical representation of impulse and jump functions; (3) select macroeconomic characteristics to analyze rapidly changing processes in the economy; and (4) create models and mechanisms for forecasting impulsive and abrupt changes in the macroeconomy. The approaches to the development of macroeconomic theory and its methods proposed in the article are not associated with the use of evolutionary continuous functions; for example, power functions, which is typical for many canonical macroeconomic models. These approaches do not include management decisions to achieve optimal values of given target functions, which is typical for recursive macroeconomic models of dynamic programming. This article is about formulating the main provisions of macroeconomic theory and its methods, which, with varying degrees of accuracy, could give a forecast about the upcoming possibility of sudden changes (impulse, shock, spasmodic, and others) in the macroeconomic situation. The research methodology is statistical analysis, special methods developed by the author for studying impulse, and jump processes. As a result of this study, the basic principles of modeling macroeconomic theory based on rapid impulse and abrupt changes were formulated, approaches to constructing the tools of this theory were outlined, and problems and tasks for further research were identified.

Education as a Resource for Socio-Economic Development of Russia: Perceptions of Social Network Users

In addition to the traditional reflections on the explicit functions of education (reproduction of the socio-professional structure of society) and its latent forms (reproduction of distribution relations), the tasks of state development are added, which become highly relevant from the point of view of economic achievements and from the point of view of meeting the needs of man and society, that determine the relevance of the researched problem. The purpose of the study was to identify the population’s trivial ideas about the functional capabilities of education that can have an impact on the development of the state as a whole. The methodological approach is based on the fact that the perception of macroeconomic processes determined by the development of education will be reflected in the trivial ideas of the population, that can be studied through structural and content analysis of the texts of messages on social networks. The study used methods of grounded theory, neural network analysis, analysis of the frequency of occurrence and emotional background of words, content and expert analysis.
 As a result of the study, the following main conclusions were formulated. According to users of social networks, the leading functions of education are related to its ability to influence the social, economic and political development of society and the state, including as a geopolitical subject. Users associate education with various levels of development of socio-economic processes - from personal to national. The functional essence of education as a resource for the macroeconomic development of the state dominates over other aspects (micro- and meso-levels) of ideas and demonstrates a clearly defined hierarchical relationship of priorities, arranged in the following order: national, historical, systemic, global, institutional, regional and meso-economic. As part of the discussion of educational processes, differences invariably arise between supporters of state-oriented and socially-centered ways of developing society. The historical conditionality of Russian education among users correlates with the peculiarities of its development in the USSR - there is no connection to earlier periods of history. Education from a functional perspective is assessed by users as a benefit for individuals and society, the achievement of which requires significant time and socio-economic costs on the part of all its participants (the state, teachers and students). Insufficient satisfaction with higher education is evident among the majority of users and is due to an assessment of its current state. The identified results require further specification, for example, the study of algorithms proposed to overcome the current situation.

Application of Dsge Models for the Analysis of Latvian Economic Processes

Nowadays DSGE models are the mainstream of macroeconomic theory. DSGE stands for dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium and the main purpose of these models is to perform the analysis of business cycle fluctuations and economic policy. The main advantage of DSGE models is related to their theoretical foundations – the dynamics of economic processes is described as interaction of rational optimizing agents, which react to "exogenous stochastic disturbances" (shocks). These advantage of DSGE models helps to analyse both economic processes on the aggregated level and individual markets under the circumstances of uncertainty. Historically, DSGE models have gone through several stages of development. The origins of DSGE models are related to Lucas critique – a series of papers, which presented a new approach of macroeconomic processes analysis. This approach was rather controversial with Keynesian theory. In the terms of R. Lucas, macroeconomic models must be based on microfoundations and consider expected variables, because the consideration of expectations in macroeconomic models best describes "the real economic situation" and makes these models suitable for economic policy development and analysis. The first DSGE models were basically RBC (Real Business Cycle) models, but their main drawback was assumption of neutrality of money, which made them not suitable for monetary policy analysis. Later DSGE models correct this drawback – contemporary DSGE models are used for various purposes, for instance, fiscal and monetary policy analysis. Keywords: macroeconomic modelling, DSGE, Latvian economy

Catholic Censorship and the Demise of Knowledge Production in Early Modern Italy

Abstract Censorship makes new ideas less available to others, but also reduces the number of people choosing to develop non-compliant ideas. We propose a new method to measure the effect of censorship on knowledge growth, accounting for the agents’ choice between compliant and non-compliant occupations. We apply our method to the Catholic Church’s censorship of books written by members of Italian universities and academies over the period 1400–750. We highlight new facts: once censorship was introduced, censored authors were of better quality than the non-censored authors, but this gap shrank over time and the intensity of censorship decreased over time. We use these facts to identify the deep parameters of a novel endogenous growth model that links censorship to knowledge diffusion and occupational choice. We conclude that the average log publication per scholar in Italy would have been 43% higher if censorship had not been present, while the effect of adverse macroeconomic processes is almost four times smaller. The induced reallocation of talents towards compliant activities explains half the effect of censorship.

IMBALANCES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UKRAINIAN BUSINESS SECTOR

Topicality. For the post-war recovery of the country, a qualitative restoration of the regulatory environment is needed, aimed at optimizing macroeconomic processes related to the structural transformation of the business sector, the necessity of which is caused by its existing disproportions, that is, a violation of coherence, correspondence of interrelated economic processes and indicators characterizing the functioning and development certain types of business activity. This indicates the need for the formation of the ability of the business sector of Ukraine to self-renew, adaptability to crisis effects and development through qualitative changes in its technological core on the basis of digital transformation, innovativeness and the creation of favorable conditions for the development of mobilized resources (assets) in the sectoral dimension, as a basis for ensuring humanitarian and defense needs, generating high added value as a factor of general economic well-being, filling budgets and providing resources for resilient social development.Aim and tasks. The purpose of the article is to determine disproportions in the development of the business sector of Ukraine as a manifestation of the deindustrialization process.Materials and methods. The material and methodical base of the research is formed by the results of the theoretical generalization of scientific works, which are covered in publications of a fundamental and applied nature, as well as statistical data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the UN Comtrade database, and data of the World Bank. The methods of systemic, structural-logical and comparative analysis were used to solve the tasks.Research results. In contrast to developed countries, where the restart of economic growth is planned to be carried out at the expense of "new industrialization", based on the scientific and technical achievements of the sixth technological order, the essential feature of our economy is that such technological reindustrialization must take place in conditions when it is not yet industrial scientific and technological potential, more than half destroyed during the systemic crisis, was restored. At the same time, the mechanical engineering industry (which suffered the most during the reforms) is the core of the development of many other sectors of the economy, including the electronic industry, which ensures the functioning of the modern digital economy. Moreover, now we should be talking about the restoration on a new technological basis of those industries, the loss of which will lead to rapid lagging behind the leading countries and consolidation of the regime of dependent industrial and technological development. That is, the essence of the process of reindustrialization of the domestic economy consists in the design and deployment of internal industrial-technological chains, which should create finished products, both for purely industrial and consumer purposes. The study proved that the structure of the entrepreneurial sector of Ukraine is distorted, which has led to an increase in the process of deindustrialization, with a low share of the manufacturing industry in exports. The structure of industry continues to be dominated by activities that use low and medium-low technologies (i.e. labor-intensive): furniture production (about 21%), manufacture of wood products, paper (almost 16%), food (about 13%) and textiles (12%) industry. On the contrary, the production of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations is 0.23%, computers, electronic and optical products - about 1%, motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers and other vehicles - 0.83%, electrical equipment - 1.24 %, machines and equipment - about 3%. This determines the low competitiveness of Ukrainian goods on the markets, because on world markets, the most competitive goods are characterized by the aerospace, biotechnological and electrotechnical industries, instrument manufacturing, which Ukraine almost lost.Conclusion. The article emphasizes that the special task of the post-war macroeconomic policy is to give impetus to economic activity, constantly support it and create a favorable environment for long-term changes based on the cumulative strengthening of the internal driving forces of economic development. To fulfill this task, it is necessary to overcome the negative factors that hold back the process of reindustrialization of the economy and the formation of a balanced structure of the business sector, namely: the absence of investment-attractive legislation, effective guarantees for investors; the underdevelopment of legal mechanisms for regulating the market of industrial products, including the lack of effective protection against counterfeit and contraband products, ensuring a balance of interests between manufacturers and wholesale and retail trade enterprises; high cost of credit resources; inefficient structure of industrial production that does not correspond to the structure of production capacities; lack of cross-industry balance of production based on a completed technological cycle; significant lag behind the state of fixed assets from the technological level of developed countries; lack of opportunities for cooperation of industrial enterprises; high level of energy consumption of production processes, etc.

СРАВНЕНИЕ КЛЮЧЕВЫХ ИНДИКАТОРОВ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ США, РОССИИ И КИТАЯ В РАЗРЕЗЕ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЙ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКОЙ ПОВЕСТКИ

The purpose of the study is to compare the approaches to the economic security of the leading world powers of the United States, China and Russia within the framework of the global socio-environmental agenda.
 In the course of the research, the author's methods are used, based on the search for dynamic coincidences in numerical expressions of various socio-economic processes and the detailing of indicators. In addition, traditional methods of economic research are used: observation, comparison, analysis and synthesis. 
 The study revealed correlations in the dynamics of changes in the values of indicators related to the processes of ensuring the economic security of the countries under consideration, proposed justifications for the reasons for these correlations, considered the impact on the geopolitical situation in the world and ensuring global economic security. Diagnostics of the state of the economy based on the values of economic security indicators of the leading countries of the world showed the relationship between the macroeconomic processes taking place in the global economy with the participation of the three leading countries of the world.

THE COMPLEXITY OF ASSESSING THE LEVEL OF ECONOMIC SECURITY OF INNOVATION-ORIENTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

The current macroeconomic and socio-political situation in Ukraine is extremely complicated by a long period of economic decline, the consequences of the pandemic and the conduct of a full-scale war, which actualizes the issue of maintaining an adequate level of economic security of socio-economic systems and, including, the issue of improving approaches to assessing its current level. The evaluation and analytical processes are one of the most important in the system of ensuring the economic security of socio-economic systems of different hierarchical levels, since, under the conditions of qualitative construction and methodology, they allow not only to evaluate the current situation with the level of economic security, but also to establish a complex of positive and negative factors impact on it and simulate various scenarios of changes in the level of economic security in the nearest and strategic perspectives under their influence. In view of this, the issues of comprehensive assessment of the level of economic security of modern socio-economic systems become particularly acute and actualize the need for their in-depth study. The purpose of the study is to develop approaches to comprehensive assessment of the level of economic security of innovation-oriented socio-economic systems. In the article highlighted the approaches to considering the essence and features of socio-economic systems as a whole and innovation-oriented socio-economic systems as their variety. Carried out the analysis of the fundamental characteristics of socio-economic systems. Substantiated the importance of building highly effective mechanisms for managing the economic security of socio-economic systems of Ukraine in the context of crisis macroeconomic processes and military operations on its territory. Studied the existing approaches to the assessment of economic security with the determination of their shortcomings in the context of ensuring the comprehensiveness of the assessment. Determined the list of key characteristics of the innovation-oriented socio-economic system, which should serve as the basis for the development of a comprehensive methodology for assessing their economic security, and the need to use the spectrum of economic interests of the studied systems in the assessment approach.

Methodological approaches to biotechnological process management in the protection of perennial fruit plantations (codling moth as an example) based on digital technologies

In this work, we investigate the harmful effect of codling moth in industrial fruit plantations of Krasnodar Krai. An analysis of growing expenditures on protective measures is carried out in connection with the high dynamics of macroeconomic processes and sanction measures. A correlation between the distribution of codling moth and the magnitude of climate change is noted. The need to increase the efficiency of measures aimed at the development and implementation of plantation and crop protection is highlighted. According to long-term research studies into the bioecological features of the phytophage development during vegetation, its following adaptation features are established: high adaptivity to variable weather conditions; high potential of pest resurgence during one vegetation period; changes in the pest phenology; an increase in the overall number of pests in those sections of the orchard where trees grow for 15–16 years and more. A scheme for the automated control of monitoring processes, optimum regime selection, application of biorational systems of efficiency control based on digital technologies is proposed. The technology for managing biotechnological processes of fruit plantation protection is described in terms of functional components, including the formation of a system of ecological and economic parameters of implementing insecticides against harmful pests; development of multivariant models and adaptive instruments of phytosanitary stability management of apple-tree agrocenoses based on the criteria of biologicalization, ecologization, and rational nature management; monitoring of the number of pest populations; phytosanitary stability of apple-tree plantations; regulations for effective and safe use of biorational, low-toxic chemical and biological preparations of new generation in apple-tree plantations; evaluation of the action of the studied preparations on non-target organisms. The latter include fruit analysis for the presence of residual amounts of background and impact pesticides, determination of phytotoxic effects of used preparations on the protected plants, evaluation of the studied preparations action on associated pests. A comparative study of available technologies for crop protection against codling moth is carried out. The efficiency of biological methods in the field of crop protection is substantiated.

Influence of Underutilization of Production Capacities on the Dynamics of Russian GDP: An Assessment on the Basis of Production Functions

Sustainable development of the state implies a proportional change in the key macroeconomic indicators described by standard models, one of which is the exponential production function (a special case of the Cobb-Douglas function), where the number of employees (labor) and the value of fixed assets (capital) acts as factor inputs, and GDP becomes the output, and output elasticities of production factors are estimated. This function is successfully used to analyze and predict macroeconomic processes in both developed and developing economies. The purpose of the study is to use econometric modeling—applying the exponential Cobb-Douglas production function—to identify the presence or absence of dependencies of production factors (labor, capital, etc.) on the final product output in Russia. The study shows that in Russia, GDP does not significantly depend on fixed assets. The authors hypothesized that this discrepancy is due to underutilization of production capacities and proved that to reveal the real dependence of Russian GDP production on the value of fixed assets it is necessary to adjust the indicators published by Rosstat for utilization of production capacities, which made it possible to fully use the methodological capabilities of production functions for the analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic processes in Russia.

THE MONETARY COMPONENT IN ENSURING THE FINANCIAL SECURITY OF THE STATE

The paper studies the place and degree of the monetary component's influence on the level of financial security of the state in the conditions of political and socio-economic imbalances in the development of Ukraine. The aim of the research is to investigate the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments, to determine the level of the monetary component's impact on the financial security of the state, as well as to form perspectives for balancing the symbiosis of "monetary policy and national financial security". Based on the conducted research, it is established that in recent years the role of the financial security system formation at all levels has significantly increased, whether it is macroeconomic security, the security of economical subjects, or the financial security of a household. At the same time, the monetary component plays a significant role in ensuring the financial security of the state, namely, it affects macroeconomic processes in the country. Therefore, in order to ensure macroeconomic stability and economic growth in the context of ensuring the financial security of Ukraine under martial law, it is necessary to improve the mechanisms of monetary policy. The article analyzes the latest threats that lead to the negative impact of the monetary component on the financial security of the state. These include: the consequences of russian military aggression on the economic development of Ukraine, continued COVID-19 outbreaks, the introduction of administrative restrictions on the use of monetary policy instruments by the National bank of Ukraine, violations of the economic security of financial institutions, an insufficient level of financial inclusion, and the contradictory nature of the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies. In the context of establishing the decisive role of the monetary component in ensuring the financial security of the state, the adopted development strategies at the level of national security of Ukraine and at the level of the monetary sector of Ukraine are considered and systematized. The block diagram of the implementation of monetary policy in the context of ensuring the financial security of the state is proposed. It is proved that the mechanism of such interrelationship is implemented through the instruments and methods of monetary policy in combination with key macroeconomic indicators. To confirm the proposed hypothesis, the econometric model of the influence of monetary instruments on the level of financial security of the state is developed. As a proxy indicator of the financial security of Ukraine, the Financial Stress Index is used, which reflects the current state of the financial sector (without considering future risks) and consists of sub-indices for the banking sector, households, government and corporate securities, and foreign exchange market. Estimated and re-estimated models made it possible to determine the most influential indicators of the monetary component of the Financial Stress Index, namely: consumer price index; producer price index; GDP to monetary aggregate M2 ratio; cash to GDP ratio; share of foreign currency in monetary aggregate M3; NBU key policy rate (annual average); share of non-performing loans (NPL). The proposed model can be used to forecast the influence of the parameters of the monetary component on the level of financial security of the state.Based on the results of the study, it is proved that, despite the difficult political and economic situation in Ukraine, it is necessary to focus on improving the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, considering the further implementation of the main provisions of international documents adopted by International Monetary Fund on this issue.