Macroeconomic Indicators Research Articles

Intellectual Capital and Bank Stability in Saudi Arabia: Navigating the Dynamics in a Transforming Economy

This research investigates the influence of intellectual capital on the stability of banks in the evolving context of Saudi Arabia’s banking sector. Against the backdrop of rapid economic reforms under Vision 2030 and the challenges imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic, this research incorporates specific metrics related to these contexts and provides a nuanced analysis of how intellectual capital and its components (human capital efficiency (HCE), structural capital efficiency (SCE), and capital employed efficiency (CEE)) affect the financial stability of Saudi banks. This research analyzes a decade-long panel dataset for ten major Saudi banks from 2012 to 2022, utilizing both fixed-effects and cross-section random-effects models to discern the impact of intellectual capital on bank stability. The findings reveal a positive overall influence of intellectual capital on bank stability; however, individual components present a complex relationship, with CEE showing a positive association and HCE and SCE demonstrating unexpected negative correlations with bank stability. The research identifies leverage (LEV) as a significant factor negatively impacting stability. Operational efficiency (OPEF) and size (SIZE) also negatively affect stability. Surprisingly, macroeconomic indicators and bank size exhibit non-significant effects on bank stability. Similarly, the direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was found to be non-significant, suggesting a resilient banking environment or the presence of effective mitigating strategies. As Saudi Arabia continues its ambitious economic transformation, this research underscores the critical role of effectively managed intellectual capital in ensuring the banking sector’s stability. It provides a foundation for ongoing research in this vital area.

Identification of risk factors for the formation of budget revenues of a depressed region

Subject. This article analyzes the factors that contribute to the onset of fiscal risks in the field of revenues. Objectives. The article aims to analyze macroeconomic indicators reflecting the peculiarities of the development of a depressed region. Methods. For the study, I used a statistical analysis. Results. Based on the analysis of the main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Mordovia for 2011–2022, the article identifies risk factors associated with the formation of the revenue part of the budget of a depressed region. Relevance. The results of the study can be taken into account when improving the budget risk management system at the regional level.

The intervention of local public authorities and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania: a subnational analysis.

The COVID-19 pandemic had a strong territorial dimension, with a highly asymmetric impact among Romanian counties, depending on pre-existing vulnerabilities, regions' economic structure, exposure to global value chains, specialization, and overall ability to shift a large share of employees to remote working. The aim of this paper is to assess the role of Romanian local authorities during this unprecedented global medical emergency by capturing the changes of public spending at the local level between 2010 and 2021 and amid the COVID-19 pandemic, and to identify clusters of Romanian counties that shared similar characteristics in this period, using a panel data quantitative model and hierarchical cluster analysis. Our empirical analysis shows that between 2010-2021, the impact of social assistance expenditures was higher than public investment (capital spending and EU funds) on the GDP per capita at county level. Additionally, based on various macroeconomic and structural indicators (health, labour market performance, economic development, entrepreneurship, and both local public revenues and several types of expenditures), we determined seven clusters of counties. The research contributes to the discussion regarding the increase of economic resilience but also to the evidence-based public policies implementation at local level.

The Financial Recovery of Region From Economic Disruptions and Resiliency of Real Estate — Construction Sector: A Case Study of Southeast Texas Economy and Real Property Values

This study examines the financial recovery of Southeast Texas post-economic disruptions, particularly focusing on the real estate-construction sector's resilience, a key economic driver in the region. It analyzes macroeconomic indicators, emphasizing the sector's role in the region's recovery. The research highlights risk management as crucial for financial resilience in real estate-construction. Three key innovative aspects include: (1) Southeast Texas historically relies on real estate-construction for economic growth, with financial stability linked to major industries. (2) Utilizing the Participatory Analysis of Risk Management (PARM) methodology, focusing on the region's real estate-construction sector. (3) Enhancing PARM results through financial valuation of residential and industrial/commercial properties in Southeast Texas, enabling longitudinal analysis and a deeper understanding of the region's financial stability and resilience. This study underscores the importance of studying the real estate-construction sector for the region's economic well-being post-disruptions.

Quantile Effect of Economic Factors and Energy Consumption on Environmental Degradation in Vietnam

This study aims to highlight the asymmetric impact of economic growth (GDP), trade openness (TO), energy consumption (EC), foreign direct investment (FDI), and financial development (FD) on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Vietnam over the period 1990–2022, using quantile-on-quantile regression and Granger causality in quantiles techniques. Our mainstream findings indicate that the selected macroeconomic indicators have a strong positive effect on CO2 emissions in this country, and this effect is more pronounced in the lowest and highest quantiles of the respective variables. In addition, the results of Granger causality suggest a bidirectional causal relationship between the examined indicators. These findings suggest that fostering economic growth, promoting trade openness, managing energy consumption, encouraging foreign direct investment, and enhancing financial development can contribute to a sustainable environment in Vietnam.

Гипотеза об абсолютной ценности ресурсов недр

Practical assessment of deposits and resources in the Kyrgyz Republic is based on the cost estimation, income and/ or cost methods. The aggregated economic indicators of reduced net cash flows and the internal rate of return, in the dominant sense, reflect the work of capital and premium on capital without legal and economic categories of the mining rent by types of payment for ownership of resources. Currently, the cost of a mining project is defined by the norms of imposed taxes and payments, and, to a large extent, by experimental innovations in the form of a share in the distribution of the net cash flows, bidding and auction payments. Based on the study of the Kumtor mining project for the period of 1996–2020, limits of the mining rent are defined by type, the influence of secondary factors of the economic return from mining and the factor of the project's influence on the macroeconomic indicators of the country. The integrated indicators of the three factors are combined into the category of resource value with the boundaries of revenue sharing for the subsoil owner and the investment capital.

Application of Composite Frequency Data Analysis Model to Forecast the Growth of Vietnam's Coffee Exports

In recent years, mixed-frequency data analysis models have received much attention and application in the fields of economics and finance, especially in forecasting national macroeconomic indicators. However, in Vietnam, there are almost no studies applying these models. Vietnam is a country with a long-standing agricultural production background and the workforce mainly makes a living from farming. There are many types of Vietnamese agricultural products with high export value, bringing a significant source of foreign currency to the country. Coffee is Vietnam's main export product, a product that earns a lot of foreign currency, contributing to the country's socio-economic development. Therefore, applying models with mixed frequency data such as MIDAS to forecast coffee export growth is a promising new research direction.

Central Bank Independence and Oil Prices Impact on Macroeconomic Indicators

The central bank's independence and oil prices can influence macroeconomic indicators. Many articles are devoted to studying their influence on individual macroeconomic indicators. As it turned out, the study's results depend on the sample of countries and the interval. They can lead to contradictory conclusions: from a negative or positive effect to its complete absence. However, these issues have not been sufficiently studied for post-Soviet countries with peculiarities in their past development. This study examines the impact of central bank independence (CBI) and oil prices on economic growth, inflation, and income inequality in post-Soviet and developed countries from 2001 to 2020. Based on the analysis of panel data, it was found that strengthening the independence of central banks does not significantly impact economic growth, inflation, and income inequality in developed countries but contributes to their reduction in post-Soviet countries. Higher oil prices reduce economic growth and increase income inequality in developed countries and reduce economic growth, but do not affect income inequality in post-Soviet countries. An increase in oil price increments increases inflation in both samples of countries. The results of this study may be useful for developing macroeconomic policies.

Investigating the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Volatility in Sub-Saharan Africa: Analysis Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sector volatility in sub-Saharan Africa by drawing evidence from two large and two small stock exchanges in the region. The analysis included stock-specific data, COVID-19 metrics, and macroeconomic indicators from January 2019 to July 2022. This study employs generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to estimate volatility and Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) in the form of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify significant factors driving stock volatility during the pandemic. The findings reveal significant volatility increases at the onset of the pandemic, with government stringency measures leading to increased volatility in larger exchanges, while the introduction of vaccination programs helped to reduce volatility. Weaker macroeconomic fundamentals impact volatility in smaller exchanges. The healthcare sector has emerged as the most resilient, while non-essential sectors, such as consumer discretionary, materials, and real estate, face greater vulnerability, especially in smaller exchanges. The research findings reveal that the heightened stock market volatility observed was mainly a result of the government’s actions to combat the spread of the pandemic, rather than its outbreak. We recommend that governments introduce sound policies to balance public health measures and economic stability, and that investors diversify their investments to reduce the impact of pandemics.

Oil Price Volatility Shocks and the Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Saudi Arabia

This study investigates whether the positive and negative shocks in oil price volatility have an asymmetric effect on the volatility measures of the macroeconomic variables in the context of Saudi Arabia- a major oil exporting country in the region. The empirical results suggest that a positive shock in the oil price volatility tends to generate higher volatility in inflation, forex reserves, public spending and stock prices, whereas a negative shock in the oil price volatility does not seem to have any significant impact on the volatility measures of most of these variables. The crucial inference that emerges from these findings is that the unfavourable events in the oil markets that cause higher volatility in oil prices seem to generate higher macroeconomic uncertainty. However, the favourable oil market events that are believed to reduce uncertainty, do not seem to have a stabilizing impact on the macroeconomic environment of the Saudi economy.

ВЛИЯНИЕ РЫНКА ЧЕЛОВЕЧЕСКИХ РЕСУРСОВ НА ПОЛИТИЧЕСКУЮ СТАБИЛЬНОСТЬ В СТРАНЕ

Despite the dependence of the human resource market on the market for goods and services, it acts as one of the key segments of the economic system that influences the economic and political decisions of the government. Human capital predetermines the economic development of the country both in the short term and in the long term, creating the prerequisites for effective management of natural resources, self-reproduction and ensuring return on capital. The disequilibrium state of the factor labor market causes a decrease in gross domestic product and changes in other indicators of the system of national accounts. In addition to economic problems, imbalances in the labor market also provoke political instability in the country and increase the level of uncertainty among residents. This situation arose in Great Britain at the beginning of this century, when, after the creation of a single European space for markets for goods and factors of production, uncontrolled migration from Europe became a serious challenge for residents of the country, which caused discontent among the British, the risk of a change of power and, as a result, led to Brexit. The purpose of the study is to identify the interaction between changes in the labor market and political decisions using the example of Great Britain. The objectives of the study are to establish the causes of transformations in the human resources market of the United Kingdom at the turn of the 20th–21st centuries; considering the stages of the creation of the European Union and the country’s break with it; determining the consequences of the UK's exit from the European Union. The methodology of the work includes historical-logical, comparative and systemic approaches. A dynamic study of macroeconomic indicators allows us to draw a conclusion about the direct relationship of the human resource market with the country’s political course.

The Impact of The Covid-19 Pandemic on The Selected Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in Terms of GDP, Inflation and Balance of Payment (BPM6)

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on selected Sub-Saharan African countries in terms of GDP, Inflation, and Balance of Payment (BPM6) The paper addresses a significant knowledge gap regarding the pandemic's influence on emerging financial markets in Africa. A longitudinal research design was adopted, analyzing data from Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa between 2017 and 2022. The study utilized GDP per capita growth, Inflation, and Balance of Payment as dependent variables, employing a repeated measure of ANOVA for analysis. The use of the 6th edition of the Balance of Payments Manual (BPM6) is an important macro-economic indicator significant in determining the performance of any country with the rest of the world. The results indicate substantial shifts in BPM6, GDP, and inflation rates before and after the pandemic. Specifically, there was a decrease in BPM6 deficits, an increase in inflation rates, and a slowdown in GDP growth post-pandemic, highlighting COVID-19's significant economic impact. The study recommends implementing policies to stabilize the economy, focusing on fiscal stimuli to boost GDP, controlling inflation, and managing external debts to improve the balance of payments. This research provides valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and stakeholders to effectively navigate financial market dynamics in Africa during and beyond the pandemic era.

Forecasting Indian Trade Trends through LSTM- based Predictive Modeling

The efficacy of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks and attention-based models in predicting next-day closing prices of the MSFT 500index is meticulously examined. A comprehensive suite of nine carefully chosen predictors spanning fundamental market data, macroeconomic indicators, and technical metrics is amalgamated, fostering a holistic comprehension of market behavior. Through rigorous analysis, the research evaluates single-layer and multilayer LSTM architectures alongside attention- based LSTM variants, juxtaposed against traditional ARIMA models. Surprisingly, the single-layer LSTM consistently outperforms its multilayer counterpart, demonstrating superior accuracy and model fit. The integration of corporate accounting statistics augments predictive capabilities, enriching the models' efficacy. Notably, attention-based LSTM models, particularly the Attention-LSTM variant, exhibit markedly lower prediction errors and higherreturns in trading strategies compared to other methodologies. However, the heightened complexity of stacked-LSTM structures fails to surpass the predictive acumen of simpler LSTM architectures.This inquiry underscores the paramount importance of leveraging advanced AI techniques and comprehensive datasets in navigating the intricate nuances of modern financialmarkets, offering invaluable insights for both researchers and practitioners engaged in stock priceforecasting endeavors.

Green finance and food production: Evidence from cities in China

In the domain of global socio-economic dynamics, the pivotal role of food production (FP) cannot be overstated. It constitutes the bedrock of fundamental human necessities while being inexorably linked with critical aspects such as economic expansion, societal equilibrium, and geopolitical interplays. The multifaceted nature of FP appears through its direct impact on macroeconomic indicators and its latent influence on international relations and policy-making. This critical nexus underscores the imperative for a comprehensive understanding and strategic management of food production processes to sustain and enhance global socio-economic stability and growth. Investigating the nexus between green finance (GF) and FP is pivotal for ensuring national security and promoting sustainable economic development. This research thus paper examines GF's impact on FP in China as outlined in the 2017 green finance policies. It employs the difference-in-differences (DID) method and analyzes a balanced panel dataset comprising 282 cities in China from 2009 to 2020. The results show that GF has an inhibitory effect on FP, and this remains valid after a range of reliability checks, including parallel trend assessments and placebo tests. Further findings of transmission mechanism analysis indicate that non-agricultural factors and financial exclusion are critical for GF's inhibitory effect on FP. Heterogeneity analyses show that GF's inhibitory effect on FP is more pronounced in the main food-producing areas, the main food-marketing areas, and cities with better infrastructure. The empirical results of this paper comprehensively illustrate GF's impact on FP and how it contributes to the achievement of food security objectives.

Polarisation or convergence? How the economy shapes party policy positions

ABSTRACT A well-studied hypothesis in the political economy literature is that economic globalisation leads to the convergence of economic policies because of increasing international constraints. However, little is known about how parties adapt their policy positions during economic crises. This paper investigates parties’ policy shifts in economically harsh times. It highlights the important distinction between long-term trends (e.g., economic integration) and relatively short-term economic fluctuations when studying party competition. During economic downturns parties have an incentive to intensify the debate on economic policies and emphasise their distinct policy positions. In other words, parties strategically position themselves on salient issues. The empirical analysis combines party manifesto data with macro-economic indicators and survey data from 28 European countries between 1980 and 2021. The findings show that party polarisation increases when the economy is in decline, and positions converge during economic recovery. Further analyses explore the mechanism and reveal an indirect effect: parties adjust their policy positions in reaction to changing voter priorities and grievances in times of economic distress. Overall, the article contributes to a larger literature on party competition and political responsiveness by showing that external shocks, such as economic crises, influence the diversity of political offers among established parties.

IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET

The research paper investigates the impact of selected macroeconomic factors on the Indian stock market performance. Using a comprehensive dataset spanning key macroeconomic indicators and stock market performance metrics, the statistical analysis techniques to examine the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market movements is employed. The study focuses on understanding how changes in Foreign Portfolio Net Investments, Index of Industrial Production, Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate can influence investor sentiment and trading behaviour in the Indian stock market. The findings of this research contribute to a deeper understanding of the dynamics between macroeconomic factors and stock market performance in India, providing valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and financial institutions. Keywords: Foreign Portfolio Net Investments (FPI), Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Exchange Rate(ER), NIFTY, Indian Stock Market, Inflation.

The Impact of Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Indicators on the Current Account in Developing ASEAN

The current account balance is a component of the balance of payments, in which a surplus or deficit is a form of a country’s external balance or imbalance. Since the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries, especially developing countries, have experienced external imbalances, which is related to a continuous pattern of transactions with the rest of the world. Developing countries in the ASEAN region are often vulnerable to experiencing external imbalances which are reflected in their current account balance, which every year the country continues to fluctuate and tends to decrease until it experiences a current account deficit. This research was conducted to analyze the impact of monetary policy and macroeconomic indicators on the current account situation of developing countries in the ASEAN region during the 15 year period of 2007–2021. The Current Account Balance as the dependent variable and the independent variable uses Interest Rates in explaining monetary policy and macroeconomic variables including Exchange Rate, Inflation, Gross Domestic Product, Foreign Direct Investment, and Trade Openness. This study analyzes long-term and short-term effects using the VECM panel model. The results show that Interest Rates in the short term has no effect, but in the longer term has a significant negative effect. The Exchange Rate in the short term and long term have a significant positive effect. Inflation and GDP have no effect in the short term but have a significant negative effect in the long term. FDI has a significant positive effect in the short term and the long term. And finally, Trade Openness in the short term has a significant positive and in the long term has a significant negative effect. Keywords: current account balance, interest rate, macroeconomic, VECM panel

Healthcare Executive Highlights for First Quarter 2024

It was a great start for 2024, with all major economic indicators appearing to be in good shape with macroeconomic indicators stabilizing. The first quarter included the largest disruption in U.S. healthcare since COVID-19 with a cyberattack as well as fears of another banking crisis. Among the good economic conditions, the 2024 presidential pre-election politics, and the precarious global geopolitics consider maintaining a reserved view of the economy during the second quarter.

Empowering Women As A Source of Increasing Employment and Fulfilling Macroeconomic Indicators

The research has indicated that it is extremely important to empower women not only for the increase in GDP numbers but also as a sense of independence and achievement. This has been validated by the primary data that was collected and analyzed.

Анализ современных российско-китайских отношений в торгово-экономической сфере: особенности и перспективы развития

Currently, in the modern globalized world, a rather difficult situation is emerging. In geopolitical terms, it can be characterized by the development of the process of transitioning from a unipolar (American-centric) world to a multipolar one. More and more countries in the world are not just declaring the concept of state sovereignty but are also making attempts to actually implement it, both in their own development and within the whole world. The Russian Federation acted as the locomotive for the development of this global process. In geoeconomic terms, the response of Western countries was the introduction of unprecedentedly harsh sanctions against Russia and the announcement of various threats to other subjects of the world economy that do not adhere to the Western position from their point of view. First of all, we should talk about China, which openly declared the strengthening of its state sovereignty. In this regard, the vector of rotation in various areas of Russia’s international cooperation from West to East is fully justified. The article examines modern Russian-Chinese relations in the trade and economic spheres. The dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators of the countries under consideration are presented. The main indicators and features of the foreign trade interaction between Russia and China are analyzed. Potential directions for the development of Russian-Chinese trade and economic relations are determined. A conclusion is drawn about the general features of the development of Russian-Chinese relations in the trade and economic sphere within the framework of the current modern global geopolitical situation.