Application of Composite Frequency Data Analysis Model to Forecast the Growth of Vietnam's Coffee Exports

Abstract

In recent years, mixed-frequency data analysis models have received much attention and application in the fields of economics and finance, especially in forecasting national macroeconomic indicators. However, in Vietnam, there are almost no studies applying these models. Vietnam is a country with a long-standing agricultural production background and the workforce mainly makes a living from farming. There are many types of Vietnamese agricultural products with high export value, bringing a significant source of foreign currency to the country. Coffee is Vietnam's main export product, a product that earns a lot of foreign currency, contributing to the country's socio-economic development. Therefore, applying models with mixed frequency data such as MIDAS to forecast coffee export growth is a promising new research direction.