Macroeconomic Context Research Articles

Gravity model: Assessing the strength of economic ties between regions in the Ural Federal District

Subject. The article deals with the use of gravity models to analyze economic interactions between regions. Objectives. The study aims to develop and test a modified version of the gravity model to assess the strength of economic ties between regions in the Ural Federal District, using Data Science methods and data analysis tools of the R language of the modified gravity model. Methods. The study offers a modified gravity model enabling to more accurately assess the strength of economic ties between regions based on the aggregation of a variety of economic indicators under the principal components method, and obtain indicators of economic potential of the region in the economic system. The Haversine formula was applied to calculate distances between the capitals of regions of the Ural Federal District. Results. The model was applied to the Ural Federal District regions. This showed that the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk Oblasts are the leading economic centers of the region, while the Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Districts demonstrate less close ties with industrial regions due to their remoteness from the centers. The findings can be used to work out regional development strategies aimed at strengthening inter-regional ties, improving infrastructure, and diversifying the economy. Conclusions. The proposed model can be useful for analyzing and evaluating economic ties and the potential of regions in various macroeconomic contexts, which make it applicable for regional policy planning.

Influencia del Medioambiente en la Calidad de Vida en un Entorno Macroeconómico en el Perú

We live in a globalized world that faces important environmental challenges, where there is an interconnection between the natural environment, human well-being and macroeconomics. In order to explore this relationship, the main objective of this article was to analyze the influence of the environment on the quality of life in a macroeconomic context in Peru. With a methodological approach that seeks to integrate the environmental, socioeconomic and macroeconomic dimensions, with an orderly and systematic exploration of the selected information, results were obtained that show a clear connection between the environment, quality of life and macroeconomics in the Peruvian context; therefore, it is essential that governments integrate the issue of environmental preservation into all public policies, since environmental degradation has negative repercussions on human life as well as on economic stability, especially in countries that lack the necessary resources to face sudden or recurrent natural disasters, such as Peru.

Macroeconomic Influences on Recycling in Europe: An Econometric Investigation

AbstractWhile the circular economy has garnered significant attention over the last two decades, few studies have explored the relationship between recycling and macroeconomic conditions. This paper aims to elucidate how macroeconomic factors influence and correlate with recycling indicators, focusing on European waste management. First, we analyze how macroeconomic indicators impact key circular economy indicators related to waste management, considering 27 European countries from 2000 to 2019, categorized into Western, Southern, and Eastern Europe. An ordinary least squares model serves as a baseline for comparison with a fixed effects model and a model with regional and time dummies. As a response to Ferrante and Germani's (2020) call for more research on causal studies of this kind, we also address reverse causality both by testing for panel data Granger causality and by applying the dynamic panel data approach developed by Arellano and Bond (1991). Second, we investigate variations in circular economic performance across European regions and countries, both before and after controlling for the macroeconomic context. The empirical analysis reveals a substantial correlation between circular economy indicators and key macroeconomic conditions, but we do not find evidence supporting causal impacts from macroeconomic circumstances in the short run. Regional examinations unveil disparities in circular economic performance, with Western Europe generally surpassing Southern and Eastern Europe. However, these patterns align more closely when considering the macroeconomic context. The methodologies employed in the study may prove valuable for future research on the circular economy and its relation to macroeconomic influences.

Comparative Analysis of Economic Forces and Stock Market Movements: The U.S. and Indonesia

The economies of many developed and developing countries are experiencing instability, characterized by a decline in economic performance. In a macroeconomic context, global instability affects several key indicators such as production indices, exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation rates. The occurrence of shocks to macroeconomic indicators certainly increases the volatility of a country's capital markets. This quantitative research examines the correlation of shocks to each key indicator of capital market performance in Indonesia and the United States. This research uses the VECM method. The research shows that the influence of macroeconomic indicators tends to fluctuate in the short term and is stable in the long term. Where the production and inflation indices have a positive and significant effect on the IDX Composite and the DJI, this is different from interest rates, which negatively impact the IDX Composite and DJI. Meanwhile, the exchange rate indicator has no significant effect on IDX Composite or DJI. The research also found that the IDX Composite was predominantly influenced by exchange rates and inflation, while the DJI was predominantly influenced by production index indicators, inflation, and interest rates.

PESTEL Analysis of the Photovoltaic Market in Poland—A Systematic Review of Opportunities and Threats

In recent years, Poland has implemented substantial changes to its energy mix, resulting in an increased proportion of energy production from photovoltaics (PV). However, the photovoltaic energy market’s development is determined by several factors, and still requires further analysis. Therefore, the study’s main objective was to comprehensively understand the PV phenomenon and its development in Poland. Furthermore, a PESTEL analysis was undertaken to assess the macroeconomic context of the photovoltaic industry in Poland. A systematic literature review methodology was employed to achieve this. The study’s principal findings identified a number of pivotal opportunities and barriers to PV development. The environmental benefits of CO2 reduction and the economic advantages, including cost savings and subsidies, were identified as significant opportunities, as were social acceptance and enhanced energy security. However, obstacles to progress include outdated grid infrastructure, high investment costs, environmental concerns during the PV lifecycle, and political uncertainties. Technical challenges like grid stability and high battery costs also impede growth. Potential strategies for improvement involve better public awareness campaigns, enhanced self-consumption through storage systems, and optimised system placement. Addressing these factors could transform current neutral aspects into either opportunities or threats for PV deployment.

Brain structures with stronger genetic associations are not less associated with family- and state-level economic contexts

We investigate whether neural, cognitive, and psychopathology phenotypes that are more strongly related to genetic differences are less strongly associated with family- and state-level economic contexts (N = 5374 individuals with 1KG-EUR-like genotypes with 870 twins, from the Adolescent Behavior and Cognitive Development study). We estimated the twin- and SNP-based heritability of each phenotype, as well as its association with an educational attainment polygenic index (EA PGI). We further examined associations with family socioeconomic status (SES) and tested whether SES-related differences were moderated by state cost of living and social safety net programs (Medicaid expansion and cash assistance). SES was broadly associated with cognition, psychopathology, brain volumes, and cortical surface areas, even after controlling for the EA PGI. Brain phenotypes that were more heritable or more strongly associated with the EA PGI were not, overall, less related to SES, nor were SES-related differences in these phenotypes less moderated by macroeconomic context and policy. Informing a long-running theoretical debate, and contra to widespread lay beliefs, results suggest that aspects of child brain development that are more strongly related to genetic differences are not, in general, less associated with socioeconomic contexts and policies.

Employment Experiences and Employability of People in China Living With Schizophrenia: A Qualitative Study.

Employment support for people living with schizophrenia in China currently focuses only on patient-level factors. The authors' aim was to assess the employment experiences of this population and to identify factors related to their employability. In-depth interviews were conducted with 24 purposively selected respondents. A thematic analysis was performed. A framework for examining the employment experiences and factors affecting employability of people living with schizophrenia was developed. Employability varied by individual characteristics, personal circumstances, and external factors. Individual-level characteristics, such as health and well-being, work skills and experience, educational attainment, personal social network, gender, and age, influenced individuals' work motivation and performance. Personal circumstances, such as family socioeconomic status and caregiving responsibilities, affected whether individuals decided to seek employment. External factors, such as labor market conditions, macroeconomic context, stigma and discrimination, mental health services, and policy factors, determined how likely individuals were to be employed and the types of jobs they were likely to obtain. A multifaceted combination of factors was found to influence employability among people living with schizophrenia. This research provided a thematic framework to structure effective employment support for people in China living with schizophrenia.

Combination of ESG scores and prediction-based returns using long short-term memory neural networks to generate responsible portfolios

ABSTRACT The significance of the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors has risen substantially among investors in recent years. Similarly, machine learning techniques have allowed for improvements in the prediction of stock prices. Our research combines ESG factors and prediction-based returns using recurrent neural networks to create profitable-sustainable portfolios that can consistently beat the market index in return and ESG scores. Our analysis focuses on the components of the EURO STOXX 50Ⓡ Index during the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, allowing us to analyze two different market scenarios, continuous growth and bear market, respectively. This paper provides empirical evidence that combining machine learning with ESG scores and its application in portfolio optimization can achieve higher returns and higher ESG performance depending on the macroeconomic context and presents the trade-off between the Sharpe Ratio and the ESG score of the optimized portfolios for different scenarios.

Signaling virtue or vulnerability? The changing impact of EMU on government bond spreads

Abstract Do bond-spreads of developed countries behave differently under different exchange-rate regimes? Focusing on the experience of European monetary integration, we find that the impact of exchange-rate regimes on spreads depends on the macroeconomic context. When inflation counted as the greatest risk to bondholdings, Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) was advantaged over flexible and fixed exchange rates, because of its in-built inflation-control mechanisms. Since debt-sustainability became the primary risk, exchange-rate rigidity has been a liability because it constrains governments’ response to adverse shocks. Employing a moving-window analysis for 12 EMU-members plus 10 ‘comparators’, we find that inflation was penalized under flexible and fixed exchange-rate regimes, but not under EMU. From the early 2010s on, inflation carried no penalty under any exchange-rate regime. Debt and deficit did not affect spreads until the late 2000s. Since then, EMU-members incurred larger and more prolonged spreads penalties for deficits and debt than countries in other exchange-rate regimes.

The Impact of Economic Incentives on Small and Medium Enterprises in Oman During COVID-19: Applied Study, Case of Dhofar Governorate in Oman

The study examined the impact of economic inducement on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Dhofar Governorate, Oman, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Two variables were adopted: economic incentives as the independent variable and the recovery of SMEs as the dependent variable. Three dimensions were adopted to evaluate the economic incentives experienced by small and medium enterprises, which are “facilitation of granting loans,” “reducing taxes and fees,” and “technical assistance.” The study population consisted of the employees of 8 SME companies. Primary data was collected from a convenient sample of 104 via electronic questionnaire (due to the directives related to social distancing in light of the global health crisis (Covid 19). Data were evaluated through Statistical Packages for Social Sciences SPSS. The study found a strong correlation (90.9%) between economic incentives and the recovery of minor and medium enterprises. Key factors such as facilitating loans, reducing taxes and fees, and providing technical assistance had a strong impact (82.1%) on their recovery. The Omani government should prioritize projects based on local labor and supply chains to reduce leakages and create short-term jobs, enhancing household income during the pandemic. The study facilitates data analysis and obtaining clear results of the impact of economic incentives by using a descriptive-analytical method.Governments must execute fiscal and procedural stimulus to regain lost yield potential from COVID-19, considering the macroeconomic context, monetary policy, debt, trade globalization, and SDGs.

The Role of Individual Income in Modulating the Impact of Health Determinants: Exploring the Interplay between Socioeconomic Factors and Health Outcomes

This article analyses the self-perceived health of the population surveyed by the European Health Interview Survey (EHIS), with 316,277 observations. The main novelties of this research are: first, we use the econometric technique of quantile regression, which will allow us to distinguish the respondent’s income level. Second, the personal, social, lifestyle and macroeconomic context dimensions of the respondents are considered simultaneously as determinants of self-perceived health. In this way, we will be able to see what the determinants of health are, and whether they vary with income. Finally, it is evident that there are indeed different responses to the same stimulus depending on the level of income, especially in the elasticity of the response, seeing how the higher the income, the more or less the same stimulus influences a person. In addition, it is established that age, nationality and employment status are the most influential variables in self-perceived health.

Greener and cheaper: green monetary policy in the era of inflation and high interest rates

In recent years central bankers have devoted increased attention to the question of whether and how to intervene to address the growing environmental and climate crisis. The climate intervention debate gained momentum during a period of low inflation and loose monetary policy in core economies – a time characterised by near zero interest rates and large asset purchase programmes. Since 2021, however, the macroeconomic context has changed. Against this background, the paper analyses the contradictory and problematic nature of the direction monetary policy has taken in reaction to higher inflation. It argues that higher interest rates delay the green transformation by raising the cost of sustainable investments, and that the resulting delay also hampers prospects for achieving price stability. The paper concludes that the present macroeconomic environment demands a ‘greener and cheaper’ monetary policy approach designed to address the environmental and climate crisis and also to simultaneously fight inflation.

Dinamika Inflasi Di Indonesia Terhadap Daya Beli Masyarakat Pada Tinjauan Ekonomi Makro

Analysis of the influence of inflation dynamics in Indonesia on people's purchasing power is an important focus in macroeconomic studies. This research aims to explore the impact of inflation on people's purchasing power in the Indonesian macroeconomic context. The research method used is qualitative, involving observation and interviews by researchers. The research stages are data reduction to shorten, focus and reduce less important things and process the data in such a way that the final conclusion is implemented. From the results of observations and interviews, it can be concluded that the macroeconomic review of inflation in Indonesia illustrates the complex relationship between this phenomenon and people's purchasing power. High inflation can put significant pressure on consumers' ability to purchase goods and services, while moderate inflation with the right policies can provide opportunities for balanced economic growth.

Cultural determinants of capital structure in Indonesian banking

Capital structure decisions play a crucial role in shaping the financial landscape of companies, especially in developing countries. This study examines the cultural determinants of capital structure in Indonesian banking within the macroeconomic context from 2013 to 2022. The capital structure represents the mix of various company funding methods, impacting its value and influencing stakeholders. The debate on how the interplay of debt and assets affects a company's value continues, with the determining factors of capital structure still being explored in financial studies. Using STATA V.17, this research analyzes 30 banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, with leverage as the dependent variable. Financial ratios, including liquidity ratio, profit volatility, growth opportunities, bank size, and external macroeconomic variables such as inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), are examined as potential influencers on the capital structure. The results reveal high leverage in Indonesian banks, with variations in financial approaches. Return on assets, growth opportunities, and inflation exhibit a positive and significant relationship with leverage, while profit volatility, tangibility, bank size, and GDP show a negative and significant relationship. The research suggests limitations in scope, recommending including all Indonesian banking companies and additional external macroeconomic variables like exchange and interest rates.

The relation between economic stressors and higher education students' mental health during the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a large impact on the financial situation of higher education students, disproportionately affecting students with a low socioeconomic status (SES). This raises the question of whether economic stressors related to COVID-19 have aggravated existing socioeconomic inequalities in mental health. This study examined the relationship between economic stressors and students' depressive symptoms, and the role of students' SES and countries' socioeconomic conditions. Data from the COVID-19 International Student Well-being Study was used for multilevel analyses, with depressive symptoms as dependent variable. Three indicators measured SES: educational level of the parents, ability to borrow money from their social network, and struggling with financial resources prior to COVID-19. Students with a low SES had more depressive symptoms, and those not able to borrow money and with parents without higher education were more exposed to a deterioration in their financial situation. Both economic stressors (reduction in working hours and a deterioration of their financial situation) were positively related to depressive symptoms. In addition, the positive relationship between a decrease in working hours and depressive symptoms was stronger in countries with a higher unemployment rate. We observed socioeconomic inequalities in students' mental health, which, in part, can be ascribed to a larger exposure to the economic stressors related to COVID-19 among students' with a low SES. The macroeconomic context also played a role, as the impact of a reduction in working hours on depressive symptoms was stronger in countries with poor economic conditions.

Макроэкономические тенденции развития Дальнего Востока России в первой половине 2024 г.

Based on operational statistical, analytical and expert information, an analysis of the economic and social situation in the Far Eastern Federal District in the first half of 2024 is carried out in comparison with 2022–2023. It is shown that while instability and contradictory development trends in certain sectors of the economy persist, a sharp decline in the macroeconomic context is not observed. The output index of basic economic activities shows positive dynamics, but the active growth rate has slowed down. This does not currently allow us to talk about a stable phase of economic growth. The formation of growth rates in the industry of the Far Eastern Federal District was positively influenced by an increase in mining production for the main raw materials, an increase in the production of aviation and engineering products, certain types of non-metallic mineral products, and prefabricated wooden building structures. The positive dynamics and growth of investments in fixed assets were associated with the implementation of large investment projects in the field of railway and port infrastructure, mining, and manufacturing. There is a high level of inflation despite tight monetary policy. Consumer demand continues to expand in certain categories due to the growth of real incomes of the population

Comparative Research on the Internationalized Business Strategies of China and U.S. Multinational E-commerce Companies

This paper conducts comparative research on the internationalized business strategies of Chinese and U.S. multinational technology companies, with a specific focus on E-commerce. It begins by examining the global macroeconomic context, including features of the world economy and the opportunities and challenges faced by multinational tech companies in their international operations. It then assesses the global competitiveness of Chinese and U.S. e-commerce industries through international market share analysis, trade competitiveness indices, and revealed comparative advantage indices. Subsequently, a comparative analysis is conducted for two multinational tech giants, Alibaba and Amazon, considering their management capabilities, financial performance, investment outcomes, and growth potential. The aim of this paper is to enhance understanding of the internationalization strategies of Chinese and American e-commerce firms, their competitive standings, and provide insights for future international business decisions in the e-commerce sector.

CHILDHOOD SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS GRADIENTS IN FUNCTIONAL LIMITATIONS: THE ROLE OF MACRO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT

Abstract A large number of studies have documented an association between childhood socioeconomic status (SES) and adult health or illness. However, relatively little is known about how this SES-health gradient varies across macro-economic contexts. The current study examined state-level mean income as a moderator of the association between the education level of a person’s parents and functional limitations in the United States (N = 10,685, Mean age = 47.7, SD = 13.6, 51% female, 86% White; 6% Black; 8% other or missing). Data were from an economic time series database (1917-2018) and the Midlife in the United States Study (MIDUS). Time series data were merged with MIDUS data (1995 core sample and 2012 refresher) by state of residence and year to determine exposure to state economic characteristics during three periods of the life span: prime working years (ages 30-55), early adulthood (20-25) and childhood (0-15). Results indicated that the SES-functional limitations gradient was attenuated for those who lived in a state with a higher mean income from ages 30-55, 20-25, and 0-15 (p’s < .05). The moderating role of state-level economic exposures between ages 30 and 55 (but not at earlier life stages) differed by gender such that the attenuation of the SES-functional limitations gradient in more affluent states was more strongly evident among females than males. Findings suggest that the role of childhood SES in later life health varies across state-level economic contexts with notable differences by gender and age group. Future directions and policy implications are discussed.

Digital public transport in New Economy – contemporary mobility trends

Public transport is treated as a nerve of all city systems. Changing cities need proper transport – contemporary trends play important role in the development of public transport in a requiring environment. In particular, the development of public transport means today phenomena such as IT systems, big data, alternative energy sources, autonomous mobility, transport effectiveness, sharing economy and personal mobility (micromobility). Author presents contemporary trends that affect cities mobility. The macroeconomic context was also taken into account – the COVID-19 pandemia, inflation, migration trends. Changes in the demand and supply of transport services have become one of the challenges for cities in the new, digital, post-pandemic perspective. The purpose of this article is to review current trends in public transport development and mobility changes. The article is an attempt to answer the questions: what is the impact of digitization and technology development on the development of public transport? How are contemporary social, economic and political problems and are they strongly changing public transport? Article is based at critical analysis of literature and selected case studies. The result of research work is the indication of the most important directions for the development of public transport and the related risks and opportunities.

Can data save small businesses? Benefits and challenges of data analytics adoption among small-sized retailers

Small businesses were recently hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, and there has been a crucial need for them to meet changing consumer behaviour and industry trends through data analytics. The purpose of this study is to understand the status of the adoption and utilisation of data analytics among small-sized retailers. Through in-depth interviews with US small business owners in the retail industry, the findings provide an overview of data analytics implementation status among small businesses. With regard to technological factors, the advantages of data analytics utilisation were identified (ie a better understanding of customers, strategic decision making, optimisation of marketing tools and accurate sales/trends forecast). Technological difficulties in understanding data and data analytics tools appeared as challenges. With regard to organisational factors, the small size of the firm and top management support were identified to be influential factors in the data analytics adoption process. However, lack of time, training resources and human resources were identified as major organisational challenges. As for environmental factors, macroeconomic contexts such as the COVID-19 pandemic and dynamic market trends influenced small businesses to adopt data analytics. Based on the technology-organisation-environment framework, the findings contribute to SME research and become a stepping stone to deriving a new framework.