Gravity model: Assessing the strength of economic ties between regions in the Ural Federal District

Abstract

Subject. The article deals with the use of gravity models to analyze economic interactions between regions. Objectives. The study aims to develop and test a modified version of the gravity model to assess the strength of economic ties between regions in the Ural Federal District, using Data Science methods and data analysis tools of the R language of the modified gravity model. Methods. The study offers a modified gravity model enabling to more accurately assess the strength of economic ties between regions based on the aggregation of a variety of economic indicators under the principal components method, and obtain indicators of economic potential of the region in the economic system. The Haversine formula was applied to calculate distances between the capitals of regions of the Ural Federal District. Results. The model was applied to the Ural Federal District regions. This showed that the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk Oblasts are the leading economic centers of the region, while the Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Districts demonstrate less close ties with industrial regions due to their remoteness from the centers. The findings can be used to work out regional development strategies aimed at strengthening inter-regional ties, improving infrastructure, and diversifying the economy. Conclusions. The proposed model can be useful for analyzing and evaluating economic ties and the potential of regions in various macroeconomic contexts, which make it applicable for regional policy planning.