M5 Model Research Articles

Machine learning techniques in estimation of eggplant crop evapotranspiration

This study predicted the daily evapotranspiration of eggplant (Solanum melongena L.) under full and deficit irrigation in the Bafra district of Samsun province, Turkey, using machine learning methods. Artificial neural networks (ANNs), deep neural networks (DNN), M5 model tree (M5Tree), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor (kNN), and adaptive boosting were investigated as machine learning approaches. Determination of evapotranspiration in this study consists of three methods: (i) The reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization-56 Penman–Monteith equation, (ii) the values of evapotranspiration (ETc) calculated by multiplying the reference evapotranspiration by the crop coefficient (Kc), and (iii) the values of evapotranspiration (ETa) measured using soil water balance between successive soil water measurements as the outputs. The model’s performance in ETo estimation was higher when minimum and maximum temperature (Tmax and Tmin), wind speed (u2), average relative humidity (RHavg), solar radiation (Rs), and days of the year were used as inputs. The best performance was obtained in the ANN model with a coefficient of determination (R2) value of 0.984, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.098 mm d−1, a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.153 mm d−1, and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.983. The model’s performance in ETc estimation was significantly improved with the addition of leaf area index (LAI) and crop height (hc) to the climate parameters (MAE and RMSE values decreased by 22.6 and 23.2%, respectively). The accuracy of ETc estimation for some plant traits (hc and LAI) and average temperature (Tavg) was sufficient. The best statistical performance in estimating ETa was obtained by the RF model (Tavg, u2, RHavg, and Rs) using climate parameters. DNN proved to be the least successful model compared to the other six models in predicting ETo, ETc, and ETa.

Evaluation of River Water Quality Index Using Remote Sensing and Artificial Intelligence Models

To restrict the entry of polluting components into water bodies, particularly rivers, it is critical to undertake timely monitoring and make rapid choices. Traditional techniques of assessing water quality are typically costly and time-consuming. With the advent of remote sensing technologies and the availability of high-resolution satellite images in recent years, a significant opportunity for water quality monitoring has arisen. In this study, the water quality index (WQI) for the Hudson River has been estimated using Landsat 8 OLI-TIRS images and four Artificial Intelligence (AI) models, such as M5 Model Tree (MT), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS), Gene Expression Programming (GEP), and Evolutionary Polynomial Regression (EPR). In this way, 13 water quality parameters (WQPs) (i.e., Turbidity, Sulfate, Sodium, Potassium, Hardness, Fluoride, Dissolved Oxygen, Chloride, Arsenic, Alkalinity, pH, Nitrate, and Magnesium) were measured between 14 March 2021 and 16 June 2021 at a site near Poughkeepsie, New York. First, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models were created between these WQPs parameters and the spectral indices of Landsat 8 OLI-TIRS images, and then, the most correlated spectral indices were selected as input variables of AI models. With reference to the measured values of WQPs, the WQI was determined according to the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) guidelines. After that, AI models were developed through the training and testing stages, and then estimated values of WQI were compared to the actual values. The results of the AI models’ performance showed that the MARS model had the best performance among the other AI models for monitoring WQI. The results demonstrated the high effectiveness and power of estimating WQI utilizing a combination of satellite images and artificial intelligence models.

Modelling energy performance of residential dwellings by using the MARS technique, SVM-based approach, MLP neural network and M5 model tree

Several previous studies indicate that the energy consumption of buildings has increased steadily during the last decades all over the world. Residential dwellings in European countries are lawfully required to meet the suitable minimum needs concerning energy efficiency according to the European Directives. Specifically heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) devices represent most of the energy use in dwellings as they have a principal purpose in controlling the inner climate. Hence, one manner to relieve the constantly growing request for supplementary energy supply is to carry more efficient dwelling designs from the energy point of view, which is to say, with superior energy conservation properties. In this sense, an accurate estimation of the heating load (HL) and cooling load (CL) is needed to calculate the detailed descriptions of the heating and cooling device needed to support comfortable indoor air conditions. The goal of this investigation was to acquire some foretold models to achieve a tangible calculation of the HL and CL (output variables) as a function of 8 specific input variables (concretely, relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area and glazing area distribution) at residential dwellings. These eight input factors have been often employed in the literature about the energy performance of dwellings (EPB) to analyse energy-related themes in dwellings. Moreover, a support vector machines (SVM) approach with distinct kernels, an artificial neural network (ANN) of multilayer perceptron network (MLP) kind and M5 model tree were adjusted to the observed data for evaluation of differences. The outcomes of the current investigation are two-fold. First, the importance (or strength) of each input variable on the HL and CL (output variables) is presented through the MARS model. Secondly, the MARS-relied approximation was the most excellent predictor of the EPB. Indeed, a MARS regression was conducted and coefficients of determination equal to 0.9961 for the HL estimation and 0.9651 for the CL estimation were gotten when this approach was employed to 768 diverse residential buildings, respectively. The concordance between the observed data and those predicted with the MARS approximation verified the satisfactory performance of the latter. Finally, the conclusions of this original investigation are summarised.

Evaluation of Hybrid Soft Computing Model’s Performance in Estimating Wave Height

In coastal and port engineering, wind-generated waves have always been a crucial, fundamental, and important topic. As a result, various methods for estimating wave parameters, including field measurement and numerical methods, have been proposed over time. This study evaluates the wave height at Sri-Lanka Hambantota Port using soft computing models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and the M5 model tree (M5MT). In order to overcome its nonstationarity, the primary wave height time series were divided into subtime series using the wavelet transform. The collected subtime series were then utilized as input data for ANN and M5MT in order to determine the wave height. For the sake of the model performance, the daily wind and wave data from the Acoustic Wave and Current (AWAC) sensor for Hambantota Port in 2020 and Sanmen Bay in 2017 were used in this study. The training state utilizes 80% of the available data, while the test state uses 20%. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the ANN, M5, WANN, and Wavelet-M5 models in the Hambantota Port for the test stage are 0.12, 0.11, 0.04, and 0.06, respectively. While in Sanmen Bay, the RMSE of the ANN, M5, WANN, and Wavelet-M5 models for the test stage are 0.14, 0.16, 0.06, and 0.08, respectively. According to the findings of this study, the accuracy of WANN and Wavelet-M5 hybrid models in evaluating wave height is superior to that of classic ANN and M5MT, and it is recommended that WANN and Wavelet-M5 hybrid models be used to estimate wave height.

Integration of multi-physics and machine learning-based surrogate modelling approaches for multi-objective optimization of deformed GDL of PEM fuel cells

The development of artificial intelligence (AI) greatly boosts scientific and engineering innovation. As one of the promising candidates for transiting the carbon intensive economy to zero emission future, proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells has aroused extensive attentions. The gas diffusion layer (GDL) strongly affects the water and heat management during PEM fuel cells operation, therefore multi-variable optimization, including thickness, porosity, conductivity, channel/rib widths and compression ratio, is essential for the improved cell performance. However, traditional experiment-based optimization is time consuming and economically unaffordable. To break down the obstacles to rapidly optimize GDLs, physics-based simulation and machine-learning-based surrogate modelling are integrated to build a sophisticated M5 model, in which multi-physics and multi-phase flow simulation, machine-learning-based surrogate modelling, multi-variable and multi-objects optimization are included. Two machine learning methodologies, namely response surface methodology (RSM) and artificial neural network (ANN) are compared. The M5 model is proved to be effective and efficient for GDL optimization. After optimization, the current density and standard deviation of oxygen distribution at 0.4 V are improved by 20.8% and 74.6%, respectively. Pareto front is obtained to trade off the cell performance and homogeneity of oxygen distribution, e.g., 20.5% higher current density is achieved when sacrificing the standard deviation of oxygen distribution by 26.0%.

Comparative study of machine learning methods and GR2M model for monthly runoff prediction

Monthly runoff time-series estimation is imperative information for water resources planning and development projects. This article aims to comparatively investigate the applicability of machine learning (ML) methods (i.e., Random Forest (RF), M5 model tree (M5), Support Vector Regression with polynomial kernel function (SVR-poly), and Support Vector Regression with the radial kernel function (SVR-rbf)) and the GR2M model for simulating the monthly runoff hydrograph. The models experimented at six runoff stations in Thailand’s Southern basin. Four performance criteria, including Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Correlation Coefficient (r), Overall Index (OI), and Combined Index (CI), were utilized for model performance comparison. The finding results revealed that in stations with a low correlation coefficient (r) between input and output data sets, ML algorithms showed superior performance to GR2M. In particular, SVR-rbf showed outstanding performance over other methods. It expressed that SVR-rbf could manage the problem of low-quality data and simulate monthly runoff under limited available data.

The improvement of wavelet-based multilinear regression for suspended sediment load modeling by considering the physiographic characteristics of the watershed.

The aim of this study is to model a relationship between the amount of the suspended sediment load by considering the physiographic characteristics of the Lake Urmia watershed. For this purpose, the information from different stations was used to develop the sediment estimation models. Ten physiographic characteristics were used as input parameters in the simulation process. The M5 model tree was used to select the most important features. The results showed that the four factors of annual discharge, average annual rainfall, form factor and the average elevation of the watershed were the most important parameters, and the multilinear regression models were created based on these factors. Furthermore, it was concluded that the annual discharge was the most influential parameter. Then, the stations were divided into two homogeneous classes based on the selected features. To improve the efficiency of the M5 model, the non-stationary rainfall and runoff signals were decomposed into sub-signals by the wavelet transform (WT). By this technique, the available trends of the main raw signals were eliminated. Finally, the models were developed by multilinear regressions. The model using all four factors had the best performance (DC = 0.93, RMSE = 0.03, ME = 0.05 and RE = 0.15).

Investigating the Accuracy of Hybrid Models with Wavelet Transform in the Forecast of Watershed Runoff

In the hydrological cycle, runoff precipitation is one of the most significant and complex phenomena. In order to develop and improve predictive models, different perspectives have been presented in its modeling. Hydrological processes can be confidently modeled with the help of artificial intelligence techniques. In this study, the runoff of the Leilanchai watershed was simulated using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and M5 model tree methods and their hybrid with wavelet transform. Seventy percent of the data used in the train state and thirty percent in the test state were collected in this watershed from 2000 to 2021. In addition to daily and monthly scales, simulated and observed results were compared within each scale. Initially, the rainfall and runoff time series were divided into multiple sub-series using the wavelet transform to combat instability. The resultant subheadings were then utilized as input for an ANN and M5 model tree. The results demonstrated that hybrid models with wavelet improved the ANN model's daily accuracy by 4% and its monthly accuracy by 26%. It also improved the M5 model tree's daily and monthly accuracy by 4% and 41%. The wavelet-M5 model's accuracy does not diminish to the same degree as the wavelet-ANN (WANN) model as the forecast horizon lengthens. Consequently, the Leilanchai watershed has a relatively stable behavior pattern. Finally, hybrid models, in conjunction with the wavelet transform, improve forecast accuracy.

Predictive explicit expressions from data-driven models for estimation of scour depth below ski-jump bucket spillways

Abstract Scour depth estimation is an essential factor in water-related engineering problems. Scouring below spillways may endanger a dam's stability and even lead to dam destruction. As a result, it has undesirable environmental effects due to dam failure. Hence, reliable and accurate scour depth estimation below spillways is an exciting topic for researchers. For this purpose, the published and reliable prototype data related to scour depth below ski jump bucket spillways (Ds) was used to develop data-driven models. This study employed two widely used decision tree (DT) methods, including the M5 model tree (M5MT) and the classification and regression tree (CART), and also multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) for the estimation of (Ds). The proposed methods provided explicit and clear equations with straightforward applications for estimating scour depth. For the quantitative assessments of the developed formulas, three common statistical metrics, namely root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and correlation coefficient (CC), were used. Moreover, comparison results with previous approaches existing in the literature indicated the efficacy of the suggested methods. The obtained results revealed that the MARS technique was the best approach for the estimation of scour depth.

Reference evapotranspiration estimation in hyper-arid regions via D-vine copula based-quantile regression and comparison with empirical approaches and machine learning models

Study regionTwo hyper-arid regions (Atbara and Kassala stations) in Sudan. Study focusThe study aims to evaluate the potential of the D-vine Copula-based quantile regression (DVQR) model for estimating daily ETo during 2000–2015 based on various input structures. Further, the DVQR model was compared with Multivariate Linear quantile regression (MLQR), Bayesians Model Averaging quantile regression (BMAQR), Empirical Models (EMMs), and Classical Machine Learning (CML). Besides, the CML models including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and M5 Model Tree (M5Tree) were employed. New hydrological insights for the regionThe original EMMs showed poor performance, which improved after calibration techniques. The DVQR, MLQR, and BMAQR models showed better performance than the calibrated EMMs. However, the DVQR model exhibited the highest accuracy than the MLQR and BMAQR models over two study sites. The M5Tree, SVM, and XGBoost models perfumed better than ELM and RF models at both study sites. The DVQR and XGBoost models showed equivalent performance (R2, NSE, and WIA > 0.99, MAE, and RMSE < 0.2) to the M5Tree and SVM models, but they had significantly more accuracy than the calibrated EMMs, MLQR, BMAQR, ELM, and RF models in two hyper-arid regions. Overall, the high dimensional DVQR model is recommended as a promising alternative technique for estimating daily ETo in hyper-arid climate conditions around the world.

Modeling monthly reference evapotranspiration process in Turkey: application of machine learning methods.

In this study, the predictive power of three different machine learning (ML)-based approaches, namely, multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP), M5 model trees (M5Tree), and K-nearest neighbor algorithm (KNN), for long-term monthly reference evapotranspiration (ET0) prediction were investigated. The input data consist of monthly solar radiation (Rs), maximum air temperature (Tmax), and wind speed (Ws) derived from 163 meteorological stations in Turkey. Different input combinations were created and analyzed. The model's performance was evaluated using criteria such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling-Gupta efficiency, relative root mean squared error, mean absolute percentage error, and determination coefficient. Moreover, Taylor, radar, and boxplot diagrams were created. It was determined that the MGGP model outperformed both the M5Tree and the KNN models. The equation obtained from the MGGP model, for the best-performed combination of Rs-Tmax-Ws, was presented. The best weather conditions were obtained as 0.029 to 31.814MJ/m2, - 5.8 to 45.7°C, and 0.140 to 5.086m/s for Rs, Tmax, and Ws, respectively. It was also found that the Rs was the most potent input variable for ET0 estimation while Ws was the weakest.

HOW MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS ARE USED IN METEOROLOGICAL DATA CLASSIFICATION: A COMPARATIVE APPROACH BETWEEN DT, LMT, M5-MT, GRADIENT BOOSTING AND GWLM-NARX MODELS

Rainfall prediction is one of the most challenging task faced by researchers over the years. Many machine learning and AI based algorithms have been implemented on different datasets for better prediction purposes, but there is not a single solution which perfectly predicts the rainfall. Accurate prediction still remains a question to researchers. We offer a machine learning-based comparison evaluation of rainfall models for Kashmir province. Both local geographic features and the time horizon has influence on weather forecasting. Decision trees, Logistic Model Trees (LMT), and M5 model trees are examples of predictive models based on algorithms. GWLM-NARX, Gradient Boosting, and other techniques were investigated. Weather predictors measured from three major meteorological stations in the Kashmir area of the UT of J&amp;K, India, were utilized in the models. We compared the proposed models based on their accuracy, kappa, interpretability, and other statistics, as well as the significance of the predictors utilized. On the original dataset, the DT model delivers an accuracy of 80.12 percent, followed by the LMT and Gradient boosting models, which produce accuracy of 87.23 percent and 87.51 percent, respectively. Furthermore, when continuous data was used in the M5-MT and GWLM-NARX models, the NARX model performed better, with mean squared error (MSE) and regression value (R) predictions of 3.12 percent and 0.9899 percent in training, 0.144 percent and 0.9936 percent in validation, and 0.311 percent and 0.9988 percent in testing.

Imputation of missing monthly rainfall data using machine learning and spatial interpolation approaches in Thale Sap Songkhla River Basin, Thailand.

Missing rainfall data has been a prevalent issue and primarily interested in hydrology and meteorology. This research aimed to examine the capability of machine learning (ML) and spatial interpolation (SI) methods to estimate missing monthly rainfall data. Six ML algorithms (i.e. multiple linear regression (MLR), M5 model tree (M5), random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), multilayer perceptron (MLP), genetic programming (GP)) and four SI methods (i.e. arithmetic average (AA), inverse distance weighting (IDW), correlation coefficient weighted (CCW), normal ratio (NR)) were investigated and compared in their performance. The twelve rainfall stations, located in the Thale Sap Songkhla river basin and nearby basins, were considered as a study case. Tuning hyper-parameters for each ML method was conducted to get the most suitable model for the data sets considered. Three performance criteria matrices (i.e. NSE, OI, and r) were chosen, and the sum of those three performance criteria matrices was introduced for methods' performance comparison. The experimental results pointed out that selecting neighbouring stations were essential when applying SI methods, but not for the ML method. The overall performance showed ML better imputed missing monthly rainfall than SI due to overcoming spatial constraints. GP provided the highest performance by giving NSE = 0.825, OI = 0.877, and r = 0.909 for the training stage. Those values for the testing stage were 0.796, 0.852, and 0.902, respectively. It was followed by SVR-rbf, SVR-poly, and RF. NR provided the best performance among four SI methods, followed by CCW, AA, and IDW. When applying SI methods, it should contemplate a correlation between the target and neighbouring stations greater than 0.80.

Estimating FAO Blaney-Criddle b-Factor Using Soft Computing Models

FAO Blaney-Criddle has been generally an accepted method for estimating reference crop evapotranspiration. In this regard, it is inevitable to estimate the b-factor provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations Irrigation and Drainage Paper number 24. In this study, five soft computing methods, namely random forest (RF), M5 model tree (M5), support vector regression with the polynomial function (SVR-poly), support vector regression with radial basis function kernel (SVR-rbf), and random tree (RT), were adapted to estimate the b-factor. And Their performances were also compared. The suitable hyper-parameters for each soft computing method were investigated. Five statistical indices were deployed to evaluate their performance, i.e., the coefficient of determination (r2), the mean absolute relative error (MARE), the maximum absolute relative error (MXARE), the standard deviation of the absolute relative error (DEV), and the number of samples with an error greater than 2% (NE &gt; 2%). Findings reveal that SVR-rbf gave the highest performance among five soft computing models, followed by the M5, RF, SVR-poly, and RT. The M5 also derived a new explicit equation for b estimation. SVR-rbf provided a bit lower efficacy than the radial basis function network but outperformed the regression equations. Models’ Applicability for estimating monthly reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was demonstrated.

Comparison of neural network, Gaussian regression, support vector machine, long short-term memory, multi-gene genetic programming, and M5 Trees methods for solving civil engineering problems

In this study, it was investigated that how machine learning (ML) methods show performance in different problems having different characteristics. Six ML approaches including Artificial neural networks (ANN), gaussian process regression (GPR), support vector machine regression (SVMR), long short-term memory (LSTM), multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP) and M5 model tree (M5Tree) were utilized to analyze three independent civil engineering problems belonging to construction management, geotechnical engineering, and hydrological engineering sub-disciplines. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), relative root means square error (RRMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), and overall index of model performance (OI) criteria were used to evaluate the performances of the models. Besides performance criteria, the relative performances of the six ML models were assessed using Taylor diagram, Violin diagram and One-Tailed Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test. For each of the problem considered in this study, the effectiveness of the input parameters on the output parameter has been defined using the Relief Method and Correlation Coefficient. The results show that ANN and MGGP models yielded the most successful estimations for three different problems considered. The best prediction was achieved by MGGP model for hydrological engineering problem. For the construction management, geotechnical engineering problems, the best results were obtained using the ANN model. All models were reliable to solve the geotechnical engineering and hydrological engineering problems while LSTM and SVMR models are not reliable to solve the construction management problem. The most and least effective input parameters on output parameter were contract cost (CC) and work definition number (WDN) for the managerial data set. On the other hand, the most and least effective input parameters on the output parameters for the experimental and natural data sets have been obtained as width of the pile (B), rotation degree (R) and minimum temperature (Tmin), streamflow (Q) data, respectively. The number of data and data selection have a significant effect on the homogeneity of the data set and its representativeness of the problem. The error values obtained in test stage are affected from this condition. The equations to calculate the outputs of each of the problem considered were obtained using MGGP and M5Tree models.

Fluid-Structure Interaction Analysis of Aerodynamic and Elasticity Forces During Vocal Fold Vibration

The effect of the intraglottal vortices on the glottal flow waveform was explored using flow-structure-interaction (FSI) modeling. These vortices form near the superior aspect of the vocal folds during the closing phase of the folds' vibration. The geometry of the vocal fold was based on the well-known M5 model. The model did not include a vocal tract to remove its inertance effect on the glottal flow. Material properties for the cover and body layers of the folds were set using curve fit to experimental data of tissue elasticity. A commercially available FSI solver was used to perform simulations at low and high values of subglottal input pressure. Validation of the FSI results showed a good agreement for the glottal flow and the vocal fold displacement data with measurements taken in the excised canine larynx model. The simulations result further support the hypothesis that intraglottal vortices can affect the glottal flow waveform, specifically its maximum flow declination rate (MFDR). It showed that MFDR occurs at the same phase when the highest intraglottal vortical strength and the negative pressure occur. It also showed that when MFDR occurs, the magnitude of the aerodynamic force acting on the glottal wall is greater than the elastic recoil force predicted in the tissue. These findings are significant because nearly all theoretical and computational models that study the vocal fold vibrations mechanism do not consider the intraglottal negative pressure caused by the vortices as an additional closing force acting on the folds.

Prediction Models for Estimating Compressive Strength of Concrete Made of Manufactured Sand Using Gene Expression Programming Model.

The depletion of natural resources of river sand and its availability issues as a construction material compelled the researchers to use manufactured sand. This study investigates the compressive strength of concrete made of manufactured sand as a partial replacement of normal sand. The prediction model, i.e., gene expression programming (GEP), was used to estimate the compressive strength of manufactured sand concrete (MSC). A database comprising 275 experimental results based on 11 input variables and 1 target variable was used to train and validate the developed models. For this purpose, the compressive strength of cement, tensile strength of cement, curing age, Dmax of crushed stone, stone powder content, fineness modulus of the sand, water-to-binder ratio, water-to-cement ratio, water content, sand ratio, and slump were taken as input variables. The investigation of a varying number of genetic characteristics, such as chromosomal number, head size, and gene number, resulted in the creation of 11 alternative models (M1-M11). The M5 model outperformed other created models for the training and testing stages, with values of (4.538, 3.216, 0.919) and (4.953, 3.348, 0.906), respectively, according to the results of the accuracy evaluation parameters root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R2). The R2 and error indices values revealed that the experimental and projected findings are in extremely close agreement. The best model has 200 chromosomes, 8 head sizes, and 3 genes. The mathematical expression achieved from the GEP model revealed that six parameters, namely the compressive and tensile strength of cement, curing period, water–binder ratio, water–cement ratio, and stone powder content contributed effectively among the 11 input variables. The sensitivity analysis showed that water–cement ratio (46.22%), curing period (25.43%), and stone powder content (13.55%) were revealed as the most influential variables, in descending order. The sensitivity of the remaining variables was recorded as w/b (11.37%) > fce (2.35%) > fct (1.35%).

Long-Short Term Memory Technique for Monthly Rainfall Prediction in Thale Sap Songkhla River Basin, Thailand

Rainfall is a primary factor for agricultural production, especially in a rainfed agricultural region. Its accurate prediction is therefore vital for planning and managing farmers’ plantations. Rainfall plays an important role in the symmetry of the water cycle, and many hydrological models use rainfall as one of their components. This paper aimed to investigate the applicability of six machine learning (ML) techniques (i.e., M5 model tree: (M5), random forest: (RF), support vector regression with polynomial (SVR-poly) and RBF kernels (SVR- RBF), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and long-short-term memory (LSTM) in predicting for multiple-month ahead of monthly rainfall. The experiment was set up for two weather gauged stations located in the Thale Sap Songkhla basin. The model development was carried out by (1) selecting input variables, (2) tuning hyperparameters, (3) investigating the influence of climate variables on monthly rainfall prediction, and (4) predicting monthly rainfall with multi-step-ahead prediction. Four statistical indicators including correlation coefficient (r), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and overall index (OI) were used to assess the model’s effectiveness. The results revealed that large-scale climate variables, particularly sea surface temperature, were significant influence variables for rainfall prediction in the tropical climate region. For projections of the Thale Sap Songkhla basin as a whole, the LSTM model provided the highest performance for both gauged stations. The developed predictive rainfall model for two rain gauged stations provided an acceptable performance: r (0.74), MAE (86.31 mm), RMSE (129.11 mm), and OI (0.70) for 1 month ahead, r (0.72), MAE (91.39 mm), RMSE (133.66 mm), and OI (0.68) for 2 months ahead, and r (0.70), MAE (94.17 mm), RMSE (137.22 mm), and OI (0.66) for 3 months ahead.

How M5 Model Trees (M5-MT) on Continuous Data Are Used in Rainfall Prediction: An Experimental Evaluation

When using machine learning to predict a class with a continuous numeric value, there are several issues. Only a few machine-learning approaches are capable of doing so, but it remains one of the most difficult jobs to do. In this paper, we show how to use the M5 Model Tree, an approach that can handle continuous numeric data. This method is a stepwise procedure that employs linear functions at the leaf nodes of any created decision tree inducer (such as CART). These M5 model trees provide basic practical formulas such as standard deviation (SD), standard deviation reduction (SDR), cost-complexity pruning (CCP), and so on, which may be simply applied to different benchmark data by another user. This study examines the M5 Model Tree algorithm's capabilities for analysing rainfall data in the Kashmir portion of India's Union Territory of Jammu &amp; Kashmir. One of the best suited models was the M5 model tree, which was built using (70–30) percent training and test ratios, respectively, and predicted an RMSE of 2.593, an MAE of 1.68, and a correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.478. Furthermore, M5 model trees produce models with a minimal number of trails, requiring less computing effort and making them more practical to use.

Modelling dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand using data-driven techniques

Precise quantification of Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and Dissolved oxygen (DO) are critically important for water quality assessment as well as for development of various management policies. To calculate BOD and DO for any water sample, standard technique Winkler-Azide method is used which is cumbersome and prone to measurement error. Therefore, there is a need to device alternate Data Driven Technique (DDT). In the present study, three different DDT: Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Multi Gene Genetic Programming (MG-GP) and M5 Model Tree (M5T) have been used for DO as well as BOD prediction for 3 separate stretches of Mula-Mutha River situated in Pune, India. Additionally, attempt has been made to predict BOD using modelled DO; which shows possibility of using modelled parameter in development of another model. Performance of the models was assessed through, root mean square error (RMSE); mean absolute relative error (MARE) and coefficient of correlation (R). Results based on 3 stations indicate that ANN and MGGP both outperformed with R above 0.85 and RMSE below 1 mg/L for 2 stations out of 3. MGGP and M5T can grasp the influence parameter which can be seen from the input frequency distribution in MGGP and coefficient of input parameters in M5T.