Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Research Articles

Using the NAMA as a Natural Integrator to Quantify the Convective Contribution to Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Over North America

AbstractThe dynamical environment of the stratosphere, during the summer over North America, provides a natural integrator of the impact of convection in the lower stratosphere, as air can be confined for periods of a few days to more than a week. In situ data obtained during the NASA Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) field campaign show increasing water vapor mixing ratios in background air as a function of time the air parcel spent within the North American Monsoon Anticyclone region. We find that water vapor added to the stratosphere by convection decreases with altitude and tends to drop below detectable limits by the 415 K isentrope in 2021 and the 430 K isentrope in 2022. Integrating between potential temperatures of 380 and 460 K we find that convection added between 20 and 32 Tg per summer to the stratosphere in 2021 and 2022. While the total amount is only 1%–4% of the amount ascending in the tropics across the tropical tropopause, small changes in the annual flux of water can have a significant effect on the radiation budget of the atmosphere. Locally, over North America we find that convection increased the water vapor mixing ratio at 380 K by as much as 40%. Tropopause‐penetrating convection is part of the yearly cycle of stratospheric water vapor and we suggest that it must be included in extratropical models to accurately predict future trends in stratospheric water vapor.

Responses of Lower-Stratospheric Water Vapor to Regional Sea Surface Temperature Changes

Abstract The variability of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) plays a crucial role in stratospheric chemistry and Earth’s energy budget, strongly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST). In this study, we systematically investigate the response of lower-SWV (LSWV) to regional sea surface temperature changes using idealized SST patch experiments within a climate model. The results indicate that LSWV is most sensitive to tropical sea surface temperature, with the strongest response occurring in late autumn and early winter. Warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific (WP) leads to stratospheric drying, while warming of the tropical Atlantic (TA) and eastern Pacific results in stratospheric moistening. The drying impact on LSWV due to warming in the western Pacific Ocean exceeds the wet effect in the eastern Pacific Ocean by approximately 60%. The variations in tropical SST influence LSWV by modulating the temperature at the tropical tropopause layer, especially over the Indo-Pacific warm pool through Matsuno–Gill responses. Furthermore, the response of LSWV to tropical SST changes exhibits nonnegligible nonlinearity, which indicates the importance of nonlinearity in determining the LSWV response to global surface warming. Significance Statement In this study, we explore how changes in the temperature of the ocean’s surface can affect the amount of water vapor in the stratosphere, a layer of Earth’s atmosphere. Understanding this relationship is important because water vapor in the stratosphere can influence both our climate and the chemistry of the atmosphere. Using a climate model, we found that water vapor in the lower stratosphere is especially responsive to temperature changes in tropical ocean regions. Specifically, when the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific get warmer, the stratosphere tends to get drier. On the other hand, warming in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific leads to more moisture in the stratosphere. The way these changes add up is complex and not simply a sum of individual parts, especially in tropical warm pool regions. Our findings have implications for how we understand and predict the impacts of climate change on stratospheric water vapor.

Weakening of the tropical tropopause layer cold trap with global warming

Abstract. Lagrangian trajectories have previously been used to reconstruct water vapor variability in the lower stratosphere, where the sensitivity of surface radiation to changes in the water vapor concentration is strongest, by obtaining temperature histories of air parcels that ascend from the troposphere to the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Models and theory predict an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) and deceleration of the Walker circulation with surface warming, and both of these will drive future changes to transport across the TTL. Here, we examine the response of TTL transport during boreal winter to idealized changes in the BDC and Walker circulation by comparing the temperature histories of trajectories computed with ERA5 data to those calculated using the same data but with altered vertical and zonal wind velocities. We find that lower-stratospheric water vapor mixing ratios calculated from trajectories' cold point temperatures can increase by about 1.6 ppmv (about 50 %) when only zonal winds are slowed, while changes to vertical winds have a negligible impact on water vapor concentrations. This change follows from a decrease in zonal sampling of the temperature field by trajectories, which weakens the “cold trap” mechanism of dehydration as TTL transport evolves. As the zonal winds of the TTL decrease, the fraction of air that passes through the cold trap while ascending to the stratosphere will decrease and the coldest average temperature experienced by parcels will increase. Future changes to TTL temperatures can be applied as an offset to these temperature histories, including enhanced warming of the cold trap due to El Niño-like warming, which has a secondary impact on the fraction of air that is dehydrated by the cold trap. Some of the resultant moistening may be negated by a decreased rate of temperature change following the cold point, which will allow more ice to gravitationally settle before sublimating outside of the cold trap. This result presents a mechanism for a stratospheric water vapor feedback that can exist without changes to TTL temperatures.

Significant Stratospheric Moistening Following Extreme El Niño Events

The moistening impact of El Niño on the tropical lower stratosphere has been extensively studied, yet a long-standing challenge is its potential nonlinearities regarding the strength of El Niño. Extreme El Niño’s hydration in 2015/2016 was unprecedented in the satellite era, providing a great opportunity to distinguish the differential response of water vapor to extreme and moderate El Niño. Using ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalysis data from 1979–2019, we compare the composite tropical lower stratospheric water vapor anomalies throughout all extreme and moderate El Niño episodes since the satellite era. We validate the variations in the lower stratospheric water vapor during the two distinct El Niño episodes using a three-dimensional chemistry transport model simulating the same period. The model reproduces the observed pattern in lower stratospheric water vapor. Both demonstrate that robust moistening during extreme El Niño events occurs throughout the tropical lower stratosphere. However, moderate El Niño events seem to have a weak effect on lower stratospheric water vapor. In comparison to moderate El Niño, the strong convective activities induced by extreme El Niño release large amounts of latent heat, causing extensive and intense warming in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, thus greatly increasing the water vapor content in the tropical lower stratosphere. Additionally, moderate El Niño events have strong seasonality in their hydration effect in the tropics, whereas the intense moistening effect of extreme El Niño events prevails in all seasons during their episodes.

Response of stratospheric water vapour to warming constrained by satellite observations

Future increases in stratospheric water vapour risk amplifying climate change and slowing down the recovery of the ozone layer. However, state-of-the-art climate models strongly disagree on the magnitude of these increases under global warming. Uncertainty primarily arises from the complex processes leading to dehydration of air during its tropical ascent into the stratosphere. Here we derive an observational constraint on this longstanding uncertainty. We use a statistical-learning approach to infer historical co-variations between the atmospheric temperature structure and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour concentrations. For climate models, we demonstrate that these historically constrained relationships are highly predictive of the water vapour response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. We obtain an observationally constrained range for stratospheric water vapour changes per degree of global warming of 0.31 ± 0.39 ppmv K−1. Across 61 climate models, we find that a large fraction of future model projections are inconsistent with observational evidence. In particular, frequently projected strong increases (>1 ppmv K−1) are highly unlikely. Our constraint represents a 50% decrease in the 95th percentile of the climate model uncertainty distribution, which has implications for surface warming, ozone recovery and the tropospheric circulation response under climate change.

Convective Impact on the Global Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Budget

AbstractWater vapor in the stratosphere is primarily controlled by temperatures in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. However, the direct impact of deep convection on the global lower stratospheric water vapor budget is still an actively debated issue. Two complementary modeling approaches are used to investigate the convective impact in boreal winter and summer. Convective influence is diagnosed by tracing trajectories through convective cloud top altitude fields derived from global rainfall and brightness temperature data. Backward trajectory model simulations coupled with a detailed treatment of cloud microphysical processes indicate that convection moistens the global lower stratosphere by approximately 0.3 ppmv in boreal winter and summer 2010. The diurnal peak in convection is responsible for about half of the total convective moistening during winter and nearly all of the convective moistening during summer. Deep convective clouds overshooting the tropopause have relatively minor effect on global lower stratospheric water vapor. A forward trajectory model coupled with a simplified cloud module is used to estimate the relative magnitude of the interannual variability of the convective impact. Combining the results from the two models, we find that the convective impact on the global lower stratospheric water vapor during 2006–2016 is approximately 0.3 ppmv with year‐to‐year variations of up to 0.1 ppmv. An important mechanism of convective hydration of the lower stratosphere is via the detrainment of saturated air and ice into the tropical uppermost troposphere and the subsequent upward transport of some of these moist air parcels across relatively warm and subsaturated tropopause.

On the signatures of local and regional dynamics in the distribution of lower stratospheric water vapour over Indian region using balloon-borne and satellite observations

On the signatures of local and regional dynamics in the distribution of lower stratospheric water vapour over Indian region using balloon-borne and satellite observations

Stratospheric water vapour and ozone response to the quasi-biennial oscillation disruptions in 2016 and 2020

Abstract. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a major mode of climate variability in the tropical stratosphere with quasi-periodically descending westerly and easterly winds, modulating transport and distributions of key greenhouse gases such as water vapour and ozone. In 2016 and 2020, anomalous QBO easterlies disrupted the QBO's mean period of about 28 months previously observed. Here, we quantify the impact of these two QBO disruption events on the Brewer–Dobson circulation and respective distributions of water vapour and ozone using the ERA5 reanalysis and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations, respectively. In 2016, both water vapour and ozone in the lower stratosphere decreased globally during the QBO disruption event by up to about 20 %. In 2020, the lower-stratospheric ozone only weakly decreased during the QBO disruption event, by up to about 10 %, while the lower-stratospheric water vapour increased by up to about 15 %. These dissimilarities in the anomalous circulation and the related ozone response between the year 2016 and the year 2020 result from differences in the tropical upwelling and in the secondary circulation of the QBO caused by differences in anomalous planetary and gravity wave breaking in the lower stratosphere near the equatorward upper flanks of the subtropical jet. The anomalous planetary and gravity wave breaking was stronger in the lower stratosphere between the tropopause and the altitude of about 23 km during the QBO disruption events in 2016 than in 2020. However, the differences in the response of lower-stratospheric water vapour to the QBO disruption events between the year 2016 and the year 2020 are mainly due to the differences in cold-point temperatures induced by Australian wildfire, which moistened the lower stratosphere, thereby obscuring the impact of the QBO disruption event in 2020 on water vapour in the lower stratosphere. Our results highlight the need for a better understanding of the causes of the QBO disruption, their interplay with other modes of climate variability in the Indo-Pacific region, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and their impacts on water vapour and ozone in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere in the face of a changing climate.

Intercomparison of upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric water vapor measurements over the Asian Summer Monsoon during the StratoClim campaign

Abstract. In situ measurements in the climatically important upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) are critical for understanding controls on cloud formation, the entry of water into the stratosphere, and hydration–dehydration of the tropical tropopause layer. Accurate in situ measurement of water vapor in the UTLS however is difficult because of low water vapor concentrations (<5 ppmv) and a challenging low temperature–pressure environment. The StratoClim campaign out of Kathmandu, Nepal, in July and August 2017, which made the first high-altitude aircraft measurements in the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM), also provided an opportunity to intercompare three in situ hygrometers mounted on the M-55 Geophysica: ChiWIS (Chicago Water Isotope Spectrometer), FISH (Fast In situ Stratospheric Hygrometer), and FLASH (Fluorescent Lyman-α Stratospheric Hygrometer). Instrument agreement was very good, suggesting no intrinsic technique-dependent biases: ChiWIS measures by mid-infrared laser absorption spectroscopy and FISH and FLASH by Lyman-α induced fluorescence. In clear-sky UTLS conditions (H2O<10 ppmv), mean and standard deviations of differences in paired observations between ChiWIS and FLASH were only (-1.4±5.9) % and those between FISH and FLASH only (-1.5±8.0) %. Agreement between ChiWIS and FLASH for in-cloud conditions is even tighter, at (+0.7±7.6) %. Estimated realized instrumental precision in UTLS conditions was 0.05, 0.2, and 0.1 ppmv for ChiWIS, FLASH, and FISH, respectively. This level of accuracy and precision allows the confident detection of fine-scale spatial structures in UTLS water vapor required for understanding the role of convection and the ASM in the stratospheric water vapor budget.

Diurnal variability of lower and middle atmospheric water vapour over the Asian summer monsoon region: first results from COSMIC-1 and TIMED-SABER measurements

First observations on the vertical structure of diurnal variability of water vapour in the lower and middle atmosphere using 13 years of COSMIC-1 and 18 years of SABER observations over the Asian summer monsoon region are presented in this paper. The most significant and new observation is that the middle stratospheric water vapour (SWV) enhancement is observed between 9 and 18 LT, whereas it is between 6 and 15 LT near tropopause in all the seasons. The diurnal amplitude of water vapour near tropopause is between 0.3 and 0.4 ppmv. Bimodal peaks are found in the diurnal amplitude of SWV, maximizing between 25 and 30 km (~ 0.4 ppmv), and between 45 and 50 km (~ 0.6 ppmv). The analysis reveals that the diurnal variability in the lower SWV is controlled by the tropical tropopause temperature, whereas the middle and upper SWV is primarily controlled by methane oxidation. The results are presented and discussed in the light of present understanding.

Evaluating the influence of deep convection on tropopause thermodynamics and lower stratospheric water vapor: A RELAMPAGO case study using the WRF model

Troposphere to stratosphere exchange is generally driven by deep convection capable of overshooting tropospheric materials contributing to stratospheric chemistry. The La Plata Basin region in South America is known for organized deep convection and mesoscale convective systems. This study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model to simulate deep convection during the RELAMPAGO field campaign in Argentina. This work investigates upper troposphere – lower stratosphere (UTLS) thermodynamics, specifically double tropopause events, and identifies lower stratospheric hydration related to deep convection. Results show that lower stratospheric hydration occurred during two organized convective types, a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) and squall line, which coincided with strong low level jet moisture transport. However, the lower stratosphere was not hydrated during discrete cells. While UTLS moisture was present in all three convective types, during the discrete cell, ice and water vapor were mixed, inhibiting net positive buoyancy and the transport of tropospheric material aloft. During the MCC and squall line events, UTLS moisture was stratified. A dry layer in the tropopause was collocated with an ice layer where net positive buoyancy contributed to stratospheric hydration as high as 20 km.

Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Variations Diagnosed from Satellite Observations, Reanalysis Data, and a Chemistry—Climate Model

Stratospheric water vapor variations, which may play an important role in surface climate, have drawn extensive studies. Here, the variation in stratospheric water vapor is investigated using data from observations of the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Aura satellite (MLS), ERA(全称? )-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), and simulations bythe Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We find that the differences of annual-mean stratospheric water vapor among these datasets may be partlycaused by the differences in vertical transports. Using budget analysis, we find that the upward transport of water vapor at 100 hPa is mainly located over the Pacific warm pool region and South America in the equatorial tropics in boreal winter and over thesoutheast of the South Asian high and south of North America in boreal summer. It is found that temperature averaged over regions withupward transportis a better indicator of interannual variability of tropical mean stratospheric water vapor than the tropical mean temperature. It seems that the distributions of the seasonal cycle amplitude of lower stratospheric water vapor in the tropics can also be impacted by the vertical transport. The radiative effects of the interannual changes in water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere are underestimated by approximately 29% in both ERAI and WACCM compared to MLS, although the interannual variations of water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere are dramatically overestimated in ERAI and WACCM.The results here indicate that the radiative effect of long-term changes in water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere may be underestimated in both ERAI and WACCM simulations.

Processes influencing lower stratospheric water vapour in monsoon anticyclones: insights from Lagrangian modelling

Abstract. We investigate the influence of different chemical and physical processes on the water vapour distribution in the lower stratosphere (LS), in particular in the Asian and North American monsoon anticyclones (AMA and NAMA, respectively). Specifically, we use the chemistry transport model CLaMS to analyse the effects of large-scale temperatures, methane oxidation, ice microphysics, and small-scale atmospheric mixing processes in different model experiments. All these processes hydrate the LS and, particularly, the AMA. While ice microphysics has the largest global moistening impact, it is small-scale mixing which dominates the specific signature in the AMA in the model experiments. In particular, the small-scale mixing parameterization strongly contributes to the water vapour transport to this region and improves the simulation of the intra-seasonal variability, resulting in a better agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations. Although none of our experiments reproduces the spatial pattern of the NAMA as seen in MLS observations, they all exhibit a realistic annual cycle and intra-seasonal variability, which are mainly controlled by large-scale temperatures. We further analyse the sensitivity of these results to the domain-filling trajectory set-up, here-called Lagrangian trajectory filling (LTF). Compared with MLS observations and with a multiyear reference simulation using the full-blown chemistry transport model version of CLaMS, we find that the LTF schemes result in a drier global LS and in a weaker water vapour signal over the monsoon regions, which is likely related to the specification of the lower boundary condition. Overall, our results emphasize the importance of subgrid-scale mixing and multiple transport pathways from the troposphere in representing water vapour in the AMA.

Impacts of the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool on Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor: Seasonality and Hemispheric Contrasts

AbstractUsing time‐slice experiments performed with version 4 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4) and satellite observations, we investigate hemispheric differences in, and the seasonal dependence of, water vapor transport into the stratosphere in response to Indo‐Pacific warm pool (IPWP) sea‐surface temperature (SST) variations. Specifically, the amplitude of the lower stratospheric water vapor (SWV) response to a warmer (cooler) IPWP (i.e., IPWP Niño [Niña]) occurs mainly in boreal winter when the IPWP SST forcing is identical for different seasons, and the response in the northern tropics (NT) is greater than that in the southern tropics (ST). The seasonality in and hemispheric contrasts of the SWV response to IPWP Niño and IPWP Niña are traced to the tropical cold point temperature, including its zonally symmetric pattern associated with tropical upwelling and its zonally asymmetric features that manifest as the morphology of the coldest point region. Together with the seasonal variations in topical upwelling response, the morphology of the coldest point region, which is affected by equatorial planetary waves and the summer monsoon, determines the seasonality and NT‐ST contrasts in the SWV response to IPWP SST forcing. Among these factors, the importance of the climatological displacement of convective activity from the equator to NT associated with the summer monsoon is highlighted.

Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ∼ 300 DU in 1850 to ∼ 305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼ 10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ∼ 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼ 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions.

Impacts of Ozone Changes in the Tropopause Layer on Stratospheric Water Vapor

Stratospheric water vapor (SWV) changes play an important role in regulating global climate change, and its variations are controlled by tropopause temperature. This study estimates the impacts of tropopause layer ozone changes on tropopause temperature by radiative process and further influences on lower stratospheric water vapor (LSWV) using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). It is found that a 10% depletion in global (mid-low and polar latitudes) tropopause layer ozone causes a significant cooling of the tropical cold-point tropopause with a maximum cooling of 0.3 K, and a corresponding reduction in LSWV with a maximum value of 0.06 ppmv. The depletion of tropopause layer ozone at mid-low latitudes results in cooling of the tropical cold-point tropopause by radiative processes and a corresponding LSWV reduction. However, the effect of polar tropopause layer ozone depletion on tropical cold-point tropopause temperature and LSWV is opposite to and weaker than the effect of tropopause layer ozone depletion at mid-low latitudes. Finally, the joint effect of tropopause layer ozone depletion (at mid-low and polar latitudes) causes a negative cold-point tropopause temperature and a decreased tropical LSWV. Conversely, the impact of a 10% increase in global tropopause layer ozone on LSWV is exactly the opposite of the impact of ozone depletion. After 2000, tropopause layer ozone decreased at mid-low latitudes and increased at high latitudes. These tropopause layer ozone changes at different latitudes cause joint cooling in the tropical cold-point tropopause and a reduction in LSWV. Clarifying the impacts of tropopause layer ozone changes on LSWV clearly is important for understanding and predicting SWV changes in the context of future global ozone recovery.

Sensitivity of stratospheric water vapour to variability in tropical tropopause temperatures and large-scale transport

Abstract. Concentrations of water vapour entering the tropical lower stratosphere are primarily determined by conditions that air parcels encounter as they are transported through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Here we quantify the relative roles of variations in TTL temperatures and transport in determining seasonal and interannual variations of stratospheric water vapour. Following previous studies, we use trajectory calculations with the water vapour concentration set by the Lagrangian dry point (LDP) along trajectories. To assess the separate roles of transport and temperatures, the LDP calculations are modified by replacing either the winds or the temperatures with those from different years to investigate the wind or temperature sensitivity of water vapour to interannual variations and, correspondingly, with those from different months to investigate the wind or temperature sensitivity to seasonal variations. Both ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the 1999–2009 period and data generated by a chemistry–climate model (UM-UKCA) are investigated. Variations in temperatures, rather than transport, dominate interannual variability, typically explaining more than 70 % of variability, including individual events such as the 2000 stratospheric water vapour drop. Similarly seasonal variation of temperatures, rather than transport, is shown to be the dominant driver of the annual cycle in lower stratospheric water vapour concentrations in both the model and reanalysis, but it is also shown that seasonal variation of transport plays an important role in reducing the seasonal cycle maximum (reducing the annual range by about 30 %). The quantitative role in dehydration of sub-seasonal and sub-monthly Eulerian temperature variability is also examined by using time-filtered temperature fields in the trajectory calculations. Sub-monthly temperature variability reduces annual mean water vapour concentrations by 40 % in the reanalysis calculation and 30 % in the model calculation. As with other aspects of dehydration, simple Eulerian measures of variability are not sufficient to quantify the implications for dehydration, and the Lagrangian sampling of the variability must be taken into account. These results indicate that, whilst capturing seasonal and interannual variation of temperature is a major factor in modelling realistic stratospheric water vapour concentrations, simulation of seasonal variation of transport and of sub-seasonal and sub-monthly temperature variability are also important and cannot be ignored.

Extreme Outliers in Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Over North America Observed by MLS: Relation to Overshooting Convection Diagnosed From Colocated Aqua-MODIS Data.

Convectively injected water vapor (HO) in the North American (NA) summer lowermost stratosphere results in significant outliers in the 100‐hPa HO measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). MLS statistics from 15 years confirm that the NA region contains over 60% of global 100‐hPa HO > 12 ppmv, despite having only 1.8% of all MLS observations. A profile sampled in August 2019 stands out, with H2O=26.3 ppmv, far exceeding the prior record and the median 4.5‐ppmv abundance in NA. This particular outlier is associated with a large overshooting convective event (OCE) that spanned multiple U.S. states and persisted for several hours. Colocation of the MLS data over NA with cloud observations from Aqua's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reveals the unique character of this case, as only 2.3% of MLS profiles are as close to an OCE and only 0.024% of OCEs cover as large an area within a 500‐km perimeter of a profile.

FORUM: Unique Far-Infrared Satellite Observations to Better Understand How Earth Radiates Energy to Space

AbstractThe outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) emitted to space is a fundamental component of the Earth’s energy budget. There are numerous, entangled physical processes that contribute to OLR and that are responsible for driving, and responding to, climate change. Spectrally resolved observations can disentangle these processes, but technical limitations have precluded accurate space-based spectral measurements covering the far infrared (FIR) from 100 to 667 cm−1(wavelengths between 15 and 100µm). The Earth’s FIR spectrum is thus essentially unmeasured even though at least half of the OLR arises from this spectral range. The region is strongly influenced by upper-tropospheric–lower-stratospheric water vapor, temperature lapse rate, ice cloud distribution, and microphysics, all critical parameters in the climate system that are highly variable and still poorly observed and understood. To cover this uncharted territory in Earth observations, the Far-Infrared Outgoing Radiation Understanding and Monitoring (FORUM) mission has recently been selected as ESA’s ninth Earth Explorer mission for launch in 2026. The primary goal of FORUM is to measure, with high absolute accuracy, the FIR component of the spectrally resolved OLR for the first time with high spectral resolution and radiometric accuracy. The mission will provide a benchmark dataset of global observations which will significantly enhance our understanding of key forcing and feedback processes of the Earth’s atmosphere to enable more stringent evaluation of climate models. This paper describes the motivation for the mission, highlighting the scientific advances that are expected from the new measurements.

Increase in Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor in the Past 100 Years Related to Tropical Atlantic Warming

AbstractLower Stratospheric water vapor (SWV) is one of important drivers of global climate change. Increases and decreases in lower SWV have been found to strengthen and offset global warming effects, respectively. Using several data sets, we find that sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the past 100 years has caused an increase in SWV. SST warming over the tropical Indian Ocean and the western Pacific has resulted in a drier stratosphere. However, tropical Atlantic Ocean warming has resulted in a significantly wetter stratosphere and is the main contributor to the increasing trend of SWV in the past 100 years. The responses of Rossby and Kelvin waves over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific to Atlantic warming have led to a warmer tropopause temperature, resulting in more water vapor entering the stratosphere. This study suggests that SWV trend may simply be the result of a game between warm pool SST and tropical Atlantic SST changes.