Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Research Articles

Analysis of factors influencing tropical lower stratospheric water vapor during 1980\u20132017

Tropical cold point tropopause temperature (CPT) anomalies determine lower stratospheric water vapor (LSWV) variations, leading to a high correlation between variations in tropical average CPT and changes in tropical average LSWV. However, this high correlation is only found in winter and spring. This work revisits the factors controlling LSWV variations using observations and simulations over the past ~40 years. It is found that the first and second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of tropical CPT variations together explain the tropical average LSWV changes much better than the tropical average CPT variations. The high correlation between the first and second EOF modes of tropical CPT variations and tropical average LSWV changes holds in all four seasons. A further analysis shows that the first and second EOF modes of tropical CPT variations are related to canonical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity and sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the central Pacific Ocean, respectively. ENSO Modoki is also an important factor that affects LSWV variations by influencing the vertical velocity at the tropopause. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) affects the CPT, and is the third process modulating the LSWV changes. The simulations also support the results.

Erythemal Radiation, Column Ozone, and the North American Monsoon

AbstractRecently, Anderson et al. (2012, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1222978, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619318114) and Anderson and Clapp (2018, https://doi.org/10.1039/C7CP08331A) proposed that summertime convectively injected water vapor over North America could lead to stratospheric ozone depletion through halogenic catalytic reactions. Such ozone loss would reduce the ozone column and increase erythemal daily dose (EDD). Using 10 years of observations over the North American monsoon region from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument, we find that the column ozone and EDD has a ~0.8–0.9 spatial correlation with lower stratospheric water vapor measured by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder. We show that this correlation appears to be due to the elevation of the monsoonal tropopause and associated monsoonal convection. The increase in tropopause altitude reduces the ozone column and increases EDD. We see no apparent evidence of substantial heterogeneous chemical ozone loss in lower stratospheric ozone coincident with the stratospheric monsoonal water vapor enhancement.

Simulation of convective moistening of the extratropical lower stratosphere using a numerical weather prediction model

Abstract. Stratospheric water vapour (SWV) is a climatically important atmospheric constituent due to its impacts on the radiation budget and atmospheric chemical composition. Despite the important role of SWV in the climate system, the processes controlling the distribution and variation in water vapour in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) are not well understood. In order to better understand the mechanism of transport of water vapour through the tropopause, this study uses the high-resolution Global Environmental Multiscale model of the Environment and Climate Change Canada to simulate a lower stratosphere moistening event over North America. Satellite remote sensing and aircraft in situ observations are used to evaluate the quality of model simulation. The main focus of this study is to evaluate the processes that influence the lower stratosphere water vapour budget, particularly the direct water vapour transport and the moistening due to the ice sublimation. In the high-resolution simulations with horizontal grid spacing of less than 2.5 km, it is found that the main contribution to lower stratospheric moistening is the upward transport caused by the breaking of gravity waves. In contrast, for the lower-resolution simulation with horizontal grid spacing of 10 km, the lower stratospheric moistening is dominated by the sublimation of ice. In comparison with the aircraft in situ observations, the high-resolution simulations predict the water vapour content in the UTLS well, while the lower-resolution simulation overestimates the water vapour content. This overestimation is associated with the overly abundant ice in the UTLS along with a sublimation rate that is too high in the lower stratosphere. The results of this study affirm the strong influence of overshooting convection on the lower stratospheric water vapour and highlight the importance of both dynamics and microphysics in simulating the water vapour distribution in the UTLS region.

Seasonal evolution of the effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on lower stratospheric water vapor: Delayed effects in late winter and early spring

Water vapor in the stratosphere makes a significant contribution to global climate change by altering the radiative energy budget of the Earth’s climate system. Although many previous studies have shown that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant effects on the water vapor content of the stratosphere in terms of the annual or seasonal mean, a comprehensive analysis of the seasonal evolution of these effects is still required. Using reanalysis data and satellite observations, we carried out a composite analysis of the seasonal evolution of stratospheric water vapor during El Niño/La Niña peaks in winter and decays in spring. The ENSO has a distinct hysteresis effect on water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere. The El Niño/La Niña events moisten/dry out the tropical lower stratosphere in both winter and spring, whereas this wetting/dehydration effect is more significant in spring. This pattern is due to a warmer temperature in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere during the El Niño spring phase, which causes more water vapor to enter the stratosphere, and vice versa for La Niña. This delayed warming/cooling in the lower stratosphere during the El Niño/La Niña decay in spring leads to the seasonal evolution of ENSO effects on water vapor in the lower stratosphere.

Intercomparison of midlatitude tropospheric and lower-stratospheric water vapor measurements and comparison to ECMWF humidity data

Abstract. Accurate measurement of water vapor in the climate-sensitive region near the tropopause is very challenging. Unexplained systematic discrepancies between measurements at low water vapor mixing ratios made by different instruments on airborne platforms have limited our ability to adequately address a number of relevant scientific questions on the humidity distribution, cloud formation and climate impact in that region. Therefore, during the past decade, the scientific community has undertaken substantial efforts to understand these discrepancies and improve the quality of water vapor measurements. This study presents a comprehensive intercomparison of airborne state-of-the-art in situ hygrometers deployed on board the DLR (German Aerospace Center) research aircraft HALO (High Altitude and LOng Range Research Aircraft) during the Midlatitude CIRRUS (ML-CIRRUS) campaign conducted in 2014 over central Europe. The instrument intercomparison shows that the hygrometer measurements agree within their combined accuracy (±10 % to 15 %, depending on the humidity regime); total mean values agree within 2.5 %. However, systematic differences on the order of 10 % and up to a maximum of 15 % are found for mixing ratios below 10 parts per million (ppm) H2O. A comparison of relative humidity within cirrus clouds does not indicate a systematic instrument bias in either water vapor or temperature measurements in the upper troposphere. Furthermore, in situ measurements are compared to model data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) which are interpolated along the ML-CIRRUS flight tracks. We find a mean agreement within ±10 % throughout the troposphere and a significant wet bias in the model on the order of 100 % to 150 % in the stratosphere close to the tropopause. Consistent with previous studies, this analysis indicates that the model deficit is mainly caused by too weak of a humidity gradient at the tropopause.

Solar impacts on decadal variability of tropopause temperature and lower stratospheric (LS) water vapour: a mechanism through ocean\u2013atmosphere coupling

Solar signals in the atmosphere and the ocean, especially in tropopause temperatures and lower stratospheric water vapour are investigated using recent observational and reanalyses data sets for the period from 1958 through 2013. Previous observational and modeling studies demonstrated solar influences in the lower stratosphere resembling a positive Northern Annular Mode due to the top-down mechanism involving enhanced solar UV radiation in the stratosphere during solar maxima and dynamical amplification mechanisms in the atmosphere. We found that these stratospheric changes might propagate down to the troposphere and become zonally asymmetric with characteristic pressure and wind pattern over the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Such changes in tropospheric circulation are related to anomalous positive SST anomalies in the central Pacific which resemble an El Niño Modoki event. We show for the first time with ocean reanalysis data that these SST anomalies are amplified by a positive feedback through oceanic subsurface currents and heat transport in the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous warm SSTs in the equatorial central Pacific change the zonal SST gradient and lead to anomalous westerly winds and currents in the western Pacific and easterly winds and currents in the eastern Pacific. This indicates a convergence and less upwelling and therefore enhances the positive SST anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific. Such a positive feedback results in a peak of El Niño Modoki events about 2 years after the solar maximum. These solar-induced signals in the ocean in turn modify the circulation and convection in the troposphere, resulting in lagged solar signals of anomalous high tropopause heights and negative anomalies in tropopause temperatures as well as in lower stratospheric water vapour over the equatorial Pacific which are in agreement with a time evolving solar-induced El Niño Modoki-like SST pattern. We demonstrate a solar modulation of intrinsic decadal climate variability over the Pacific which is amplified by positive feedbacks between the ocean and the atmosphere.

A Large Eddy Model Study on the Effect of Overshooting Convection on Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor

AbstractUsing a cloud‐resolving large eddy model (LEM), we investigate how overshooting convection affects the water vapor content in the lower stratosphere. We design and conduct a series of sensitivity experiments to diagnose the effects of dynamical and thermodynamical background conditions on the transport of water vapor into the lower stratosphere associated with overshooting convection. The three‐dimensional LEM simulations capture the bulk properties of the target case and track microphysical processes using a three‐phase microphysical parameterization. The model results indicate that the net effect of overshooting convection on lower stratospheric water content is moistening, primarily due to gravity wave breaking and ice sublimation. The contributions of small‐scale turbulent mixing to water vapor transport from the overshooting turret into the stratosphere are relatively weak. Sensitivity experiments show that convective intensity (as measured by updraft velocity) is directly related to the effect of overshooting convection on lower stratospheric humidity. This impact is quantified for the idealized target case. Changes in vertical wind shear near the tropopause have no significant impact on the extent of overshooting but have important impacts on cross‐tropopause water vapor exchange via their modulation of gravity wave breaking. Larger vertical wind shear in the tropopause layer inhibits the transport of water vapor and ice into the lower stratosphere by overshooting convection.

Response of stratospheric water vapor and ozone to the unusual timing of El Niño and the QBO disruption in 2015–2016

Abstract. The stratospheric circulation determines the transport and lifetime of key trace gases in a changing climate, including water vapor and ozone, which radiatively impact surface climate. The unusually warm El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event aligned with a disrupted Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) caused an unprecedented perturbation to this circulation in 2015–2016. Here, we quantify the impact of the alignment of these two phenomena in 2015–2016 on lower stratospheric water vapor and ozone from satellite observations. We show that the warm ENSO event substantially increased water vapor and decreased ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere. The QBO disruption significantly decreased global lower stratospheric water vapor and tropical ozone from early spring to late autumn. Thus, this QBO disruption reversed the lower stratosphere moistening triggered by the alignment of the warm ENSO event with westerly QBO in early boreal winter. Our results suggest that the interplay of ENSO events and QBO phases will be crucial for the distributions of radiatively active trace gases in a changing future climate, when increasing El Niño-like conditions and a decreasing lower stratospheric QBO amplitude are expected.

Trend differences in lower stratospheric water vapour between Boulder and the zonal mean and their role in understanding fundamental observational discrepancies

Abstract. Trend estimates with different signs are reported in the literature for lower stratospheric water vapour considering the time period between the late 1980s and 2010. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) frost point hygrometer (FPH) observations at Boulder (Colorado, 40.0° N, 105.2° W) indicate positive trends (about 0.1 to 0.45 ppmv decade−1). On the contrary, negative trends (approximately −0.2 to −0.1 ppmv decade−1) are derived from a merged zonal mean satellite data set for a latitude band around the Boulder latitude. Overall, the trend differences between the two data sets range from about 0.3 to 0.5 ppmv decade−1, depending on altitude. It has been proposed that a possible explanation for these discrepancies is a different temporal behaviour at Boulder and the zonal mean. In this work we investigate trend differences between Boulder and the zonal mean using primarily simulations from ECHAM/MESSy (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg/Modular Earth Submodel System) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC), WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model), CMAM (Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model) and CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere). On shorter timescales we address this aspect also based on satellite observations from UARS/HALOE (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite/Halogen Occultation Experiment), Envisat/MIPAS (Environmental Satellite/Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) and Aura/MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder). Overall, both the simulations and observations exhibit trend differences between Boulder and the zonal mean. The differences are dependent on altitude and the time period considered. The model simulations indicate only small trend differences between Boulder and the zonal mean for the time period between the late 1980s and 2010. These are clearly not sufficient to explain the discrepancies between the trend estimates derived from the FPH observations and the merged zonal mean satellite data set. Unless the simulations underrepresent variability or the trend differences originate from smaller spatial and temporal scales than resolved by the model simulations, trends at Boulder for this time period should also be quite representative for the zonal mean and even other latitude bands. Trend differences for a decade of data are larger and need to be kept in mind when comparing results for Boulder and the zonal mean on this timescale. Beyond that, we find that the trend estimates for the time period between the late 1980s and 2010 also significantly differ among the simulations. They are larger than those derived from the merged satellite data set and smaller than the trend estimates derived from the FPH observations.

Nonlinear response of tropical lower stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO.

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large scale Brewer Dobson Circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor from the late 1990s to the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than two consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

Effect of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool on Lower-Stratospheric Water Vapor and Comparison with the Effect of ENSO

Abstract Time-slice experiments with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 4 (WACCM4), and composite analysis with satellite observations are used to demonstrate that the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) can significantly affect lower-stratospheric water vapor. It is found that a warmer IPWP significantly dries the stratospheric water vapor by causing a broad cooling of the tropopause, and vice versa for a colder IPWP. Such imprints in tropopause temperature are driven by a combination of variations in the Brewer–Dobson circulation in the stratosphere and deep convection in the troposphere. Changes in deep convection associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reportedly have a small zonal mean effect on lower-stratospheric water vapor for strong zonally asymmetric effects on tropopause temperature. In contrast, IPWP events have zonally uniform imprints on tropopause temperature. This is because equatorial planetary waves forced by latent heat release from deep convection project strongly onto ENSO but weakly onto IPWP events.

Cloud-Assisted Retrieval of Lower-Stratospheric Water Vapor from Nadir-View Satellite Measurements

AbstractThis study examines the feasibility of retrieving lower-stratospheric water vapor using a nadir infrared hyperspectrometer, with the focus on the detectability of small-scale water vapor variability. The feasibility of the retrieval is examined using simulation experiments that model different instrument settings. These experiments show that the infrared spectra, measured with sufficient spectral coverage, resolution, and noise level, contain considerable information content that can be used to retrieve lower-stratospheric water vapor. Interestingly, it is found that the presence of an opaque cloud layer at the tropopause level can substantially improve the retrieval performance, as it helps remove the degeneracy in the retrieval problem. Under this condition, elevated lower-stratospheric water vapor concentration—for instance, caused by convective moistening—can be detected with an accuracy of 0.09 g m−2 using improved spaceborne hyperspectrometers. The cloud-assisted retrieval is tested using the measurements of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Validation against collocated aircraft data shows that the retrieval can detect the elevated water vapor concentration caused by convective moistening.

Two-year operation of the lidar1200: from fine-scale tropospheric structures to lower stratospheric water vapor detection

The 2-year lidar water vapor database (November 2013 - October 2015) of the Maïdo Observatory (Reunion Island / 21°S,55.5°E) is now processed. The performances of the lidar in providing accurate vertical structures are shown to be good. The ability to measure quantities of a few ppmv in the lower stratosphere is demonstrated (based on Cryogenic Frost point Hygrometer sonde/lidar profiles comparisons) for a 48-hour integration time period, up to 22 km (with a vertical resolution of 1.3 km).

Contribution of different processes to changes in tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in chemistry–climate models

Abstract. Variations in tropical lower-stratospheric humidity influence both the chemistry and climate of the atmosphere. We analyze tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in 21st century simulations from 12 state-of-the-art chemistry–climate models (CCMs), using a linear regression model to determine the factors driving the trends and variability. Within CCMs, warming of the troposphere primarily drives the long-term trend in stratospheric humidity. This is partially offset in most CCMs by an increase in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, which tends to cool the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). We also apply the regression model to individual decades from the 21st century CCM runs and compare them to a regression of a decade of observations. Many of the CCMs, but not all, compare well with these observations, lending credibility to their predictions. One notable deficiency is that most CCMs underestimate the impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on lower-stratospheric water vapor. Our analysis provides a new and potentially superior way to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric humidity.

A warming tropical central Pacific dries the lower stratosphere

The amount of water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS), which has an important influence on the radiative energy budget of the climate system, is modulated by the temperature variability of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The TTL temperature variability is caused by a complex combination of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), tropospheric convective processes in the tropics, and the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) driven by mid-latitude and subtropical atmospheric waves. In 2000, the TLS water vapor amount exhibited a stepwise transition to a dry phase, apparently caused by a change in the BDC. In this study, we present observational and modeling evidence that the epochal change of water vapor between the periods of 1992–2000 and 2001–2005 was also partly caused by a concurrent sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical central Pacific. This SST warming cools the TTL above by enhancing the equatorial wave-induced upward motion near the tropopause, which consequently reduces the amount of water vapor entering the stratosphere. The QBO affects the TLS water vapor primarily on inter-annual timescales, whereas a classical El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) event has small effect on tropical mean TLS water vapor because its responses are longitudinally out of phase. This study suggests that the tropical central Pacific SST is another driver of TLS water vapor variability on inter-decadal timescales and the tropical SST changes could contribute to about 30% of the step-wise drop of the lower stratospheric water vapor from 1992–2000 to 2001–2005.

Large anomalies in lower stratospheric water vapour and ice during the 2015–2016 El Niño

The El Nino of 2015–2016 was unusual and exceptionally strong. Satellite observations and modelling suggest that convective lofting and sublimation of ice particles during this event contributed to moistening of the lower stratosphere.

The need for accurate long-term measurements of water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere with global coverage.

Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere although changes in carbon dioxide constitute the “control knob” for surface temperatures. While the latter fact is well recognized, resulting in extensive space-borne and ground-based measurement programs for carbon dioxide as detailed in the studies by Keeling et al. (1996), Kuze et al. (2009), and Liu et al. (2014), the need for an accurate characterization of the long-term changes in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric (UTLS) water vapor has not yet resulted in sufficiently extensive long-term international measurement programs (although first steps have been taken). Here, we argue for the implementation of a long-term balloon-borne measurement program for UTLS water vapor covering the entire globe that will likely have to be sustained for hundreds of years.

Sensitivity of polar stratospheric cloud formation to changes in water vapour and temperature

Abstract. More than a decade ago it was suggested that a cooling of stratospheric temperatures by 1 K or an increase of 1 ppmv of stratospheric water vapour could promote denitrification, the permanent removal of nitrogen species from the stratosphere by solid polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) particles. In fact, during the two Arctic winters 2009/10 and 2010/11 the strongest denitrification in the recent decade was observed. Sensitivity studies along air parcel trajectories are performed to test how a future stratospheric water vapour (H2O) increase of 1 ppmv or a temperature decrease of 1 K would affect PSC formation. We perform our study based on measurements made during the Arctic winter 2010/11. Air parcel trajectories were calculated 6 days backward in time based on PSCs detected by CALIPSO (Cloud Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder satellite observations). The sensitivity study was performed on single trajectories as well as on a trajectory ensemble. The sensitivity study shows a clear prolongation of the potential for PSC formation and PSC existence when the temperature in the stratosphere is decreased by 1 K and water vapour is increased by 1 ppmv. Based on 15 years of satellite measurements (2000–2014) from UARS/HALOE, Envisat/MIPAS, Odin/SMR, Aura/MLS, Envisat/SCIAMACHY and SCISAT/ACE-FTS it is further investigated if there is a decrease in temperature and/or increase of water vapour (H2O) observed in the polar regions similar to that observed at midlatitudes and in the tropics. Performing linear regression analyses we derive from the Envisat/MIPAS (2002–2012) and Aura/MLS (2004–2014) observations predominantly positive changes in the potential temperature range 350 to 1000 K. The linear changes in water vapour derived from Envisat/MIPAS observations are largely insignificant, while those from Aura/MLS are mostly significant. For the temperature neither of the two instruments indicate any significant changes. Given the strong inter-annual variation observed in water vapour and particular temperature the severe denitrification observed in 2010/11 cannot be directly related to any changes in water vapour and temperature since the millennium. However, the observations indicate a clear correlation between cold winters and enhanced water vapour mixing ratios. This indicates a connection between dynamical and radiative processes that govern water vapour and temperature in the Arctic lower stratosphere.

An assessment of upper troposphere and lower stratosphere water vapor in MERRA, MERRA2, and ECMWF reanalyses using Aura MLS observations

AbstractGlobal water vapor (H2O) measurements from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are used to evaluate upper tropospheric (UT) and lower stratospheric (LS) H2O products produced by NASA Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), its newest release MERRA2, and European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Reanalyses. Focusing on the H2O amount and transport from UT to LS, we show that all reanalyses overestimate annual global mean UT H2O by up to ~150% compared to MLS observations. Substantial differences in H2O transport are also found between the observations and reanalyses. Vertically, H2O transport across the tropical tropopause (16–20 km) in the reanalyses is faster by up to ~86% compared to MLS observations. In the tropical LS (21–25 km), the mean vertical transport from ECMWF is 168% faster than the MLS estimate, while MERRA and MERRA2 have vertical transport velocities within 10% of MLS values. Horizontally at 100 hPa, both observation and reanalyses show faster poleward transport in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Compared to MLS observations, the H2O horizontal transport for both MERRA and MERRA2 is 106% faster in the NH but about 42–45% slower in the SH. ECMWF horizontal transport is 16% faster than MLS observations in both hemispheres. The ratio of northward to southward transport velocities for ECMWF is 1.4, which agrees with MLS observation, while the corresponding ratios for MERRA and MERRA2 are about 3.5 times larger.

Sources of seasonal variability in tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere water vapor and ozone: Inferences from the Ticosonde data set at Costa Rica

AbstractWe present an analysis of joint balloonsonde profiles of water vapor and ozone made at Costa Rica from 2005 to 2011 using compositing techniques, tracer‐tracer diagrams, and back trajectory methods. Our analysis reveals important seasonal differences in structure in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Water vapor amounts in boreal winter at Costa Rica are much lower than expected from local ice saturation temperatures. The boreal summer data show both higher average water vapor amounts and a much higher level of variability than the winter data. To understand this seasonal contrast, we consider three sources of tracer variability: wave‐induced vertical motion across strong vertical gradients (“wave variability”), differences in source air masses resulting from horizontal transport (“source variability”), and changes induced along parcel paths due to physical processes (“path variability”). The winter and summer seasons show different mixes of these three sources of variability with more air originating in the tropical western Pacific during winter.