Lower Stratospheric Temperature Research Articles

Why the lower stratosphere cools when the troposphere warms

Observational data have long suggested that in the tropics, when the troposphere locally warms, the lower stratosphere locally cools. Here, the observed anti-correlation between tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature is confirmed-the lower stratosphere cools by approximately 2 degrees per degree of warming in the mid-troposphere. This anti-correlation is explained through a recently proposed theory holding that there is a quasi-balanced response of the stratosphere to tropospheric heating [J. Lin, K. Emanuel, Tropospheric thermal forcing of the stratosphere through quasi-balanced dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci. (2024).]. The local-scale anti-correlation between tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature also holds when considering climate change-where the troposphere has been anomalously warming relative to the zonal mean, the lower stratosphere has been anomalously cooling, and vice versa. This suggests that zonally asymmetries in tropospheric temperature trends will be reflected in that of the lower stratospheric temperature trends. The zonally asymmetric trends are also found to be comparable in magnitude to the mean temperature trends in the lower stratosphere, highlighting the importance of the pattern of warming. The results and proposed theory suggest that in addition to forcing via wave-dissipation, the lower stratosphere can also be subject to direct forcing by the troposphere, through quasi-steady, quasi-balanced dynamics.

The ozone hole and a phase change in lower stratospheric temperature

Depletion of ozone over Antarctica was first observed in the late 1970s, and discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole was announced in the 1980s as having started in 1979. The ozone hole was defined as the area with total column ozone less than 220 Dobson units. Analysis of ozone, temperature, chlorofluorocarbon and nitrous oxide data from 1963 onwards suggests that the annual ozone minimum at the South Pole is related to lower stratospheric temperature independently of chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide. There were ozone holes, ie. column ozone less than 220 Dobson Units, at the South Pole in several years before 1979 (the date that the ozone hole is reported to have first appeared) when chlorofluorocarbon concentrations were much lower than today and lower than in 1979. An early 1980s phase change in the lower stratospheric temperature at the South Pole at altitudes between 250 hPa and 100 hPa, and at some lower altitudes, coincides with a phase change in the annual South Pole ozone minimum. The phase change is not visible in chlorofluorocarbon or nitrous oxide data. This raises the possibility that, over a multi-annual or decadal timescale, lower stratospheric temperature has more effect than chlorofluorocarbons or nitrous oxide on atmospheric ozone concentration over the South Pole. Alternatively, temperature and ozone may both be reacting to some other influence.

The impact of ENSO and NAO initial conditions and anomalies on the modeled response to Pinatubo-sized volcanic forcing

Abstract. Strong, strato-volcanic eruptions are a substantial, intermittent source of natural climate variability. Initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), also naturally impact climate on interannual timescales. We examine how initial conditions of ENSO and NAO contribute to the evolution of climate in the period following a Pinatubo-type eruption using a large (81-member) ensemble of model simulations in GISS model E2.1-G. Simulations are initialized from sampled conditions of ENSO and NAO using the protocol of the coordinated CMIP6 Volcanic Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) – where aerosols are forced with respect to time, latitude, and height. We analyze paired anomalous variations (perturbed – control) to understand changes in global and regional climate responses under positive, negative, and neutral ENSO and NAO conditions. In particular, we find that for paired anomalies there is a high probability of strong (∼1.5 ∘C) warming of northern Eurasia surface air temperature in the first winter after the volcanic eruption for negative NAO ensembles coincident with decreased lower stratospheric temperature at the poles, decreased geopotential height, and strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Climate anomalies (relative to average conditions across the control period), however, show no mean warming and suggest that the strength of this response is impacted by conditions present in the selected period of the control run. Again using paired anomalies, we also observe that under both +ENSO and −ENSO ensembles sea surface temperature decreases in the first post-eruptive boreal winter coinciding with surface cooling from volcanic aerosols. Neutral ENSO ensembles, on the other hand, show variability in their response with no clear trend in post-eruptive warming or cooling. In general, paired anomalies from unperturbed simulations give insight into the evolution of the climate response to volcanic forcing; however, when compared with anomalies from climatological conditions, it is clear that paired anomalies are significantly affected by sampled initial conditions occurring at the time of the volcanic eruption.

Saturn's Atmosphere in Northern Summer Revealed by JWST/MIRI

AbstractSaturn's northern summertime hemisphere was mapped by JWST/Mid‐Infrared Instrument (4.9–27.9 µm) in November 2022, tracing the seasonal evolution of temperatures, aerosols, and chemical species in the 5 years since the end of the Cassini mission. The spectral region between reflected sunlight and thermal emission (5.1–6.8 µm) is mapped for the first time, enabling retrievals of phosphine, ammonia, and water, alongside a system of two aerosol layers (an upper tropospheric haze p < 0.3 bars, and a deeper cloud layer at 1–2 bars). Ammonia displays substantial equatorial enrichment, suggesting similar dynamical processes to those found in Jupiter's equatorial zone. Saturn's North Polar Stratospheric Vortex has warmed since 2017, entrained by westward winds at p < 10 mbar, and exhibits localized enhancements in several hydrocarbons. The strongest latitudinal temperature gradients are co‐located with the peaks of the zonal winds, implying wind decay with altitude. Reflectivity contrasts at 5–6 µm compare favorably with albedo contrasts observed by Hubble, and several discrete vortices are observed. A warm equatorial stratospheric band in 2022 is not consistent with a 15‐year repeatability for the equatorial oscillation. A stacked system of windshear zones dominates Saturn's equatorial stratosphere, and implies a westward equatorial jet near 1–5 mbar at this epoch. Lower stratospheric temperatures, and local minima in the distributions of several hydrocarbons, imply low‐latitude upwelling and a reversal of Saturn's interhemispheric circulation since equinox. Latitudinal distributions of stratospheric ethylene, benzene, methyl, and carbon dioxide are presented for the first time, and we report the first detection of propane bands in the 8–11 µm region.

Stratospheric Ozone Loss Enhances Summer Precipitation Over the Southern Slope of the Tibetan Plateau

AbstractHeavy summer precipitation over the southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau has dramatic influences on water resources and hydrological disasters in South Asia. It experienced increasing trends over 1979–1996 and decreasing trends over 1996–2022, which are not yet well understood. Here we show observational and numerical evidence that stratospheric ozone has significant impacts on long‐term trends of summer precipitation in this strong convection area. It is found that stratospheric ozone depletion, by modulating the lower stratospheric temperature and upper‐tropospheric static stability, enhances deep convection and precipitation over the southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau. The results suggest that the ozone recovery in the future may reduce the summer precipitation over the southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau in the first half of the 21st century, which would be imperative for future water resource management in South Asia.

Total ozone trends at three northern high-latitude stations

Abstract. After the decrease of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, it is still challenging to detect a recovery in the total column amount of ozone (total ozone) at northern high latitudes. To assess regional total ozone changes in the “ozone-recovery” period (2000–2020) at northern high latitudes, this study investigates trends from ground-based total ozone measurements at three stations in Norway (Oslo, Andøya, and Ny-Ålesund). For this purpose, we combine measurements from Brewer spectrophotometers, ground-based UV filter radiometers (GUVs), and a SAOZ (Système d'Analyse par Observation Zénithale) instrument. The Brewer measurements have been extended to work under cloudy conditions using the global irradiance (GI) technique, which is also presented in this study. We derive trends from the combined ground-based time series with the multiple linear regression model from the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere (LOTUS) project. We evaluate various predictors in the regression model and found that tropopause pressure and lower-stratospheric temperature contribute most to ozone variability at the three stations. We report significantly positive annual trends at Andøya (0.9±0.7 % per decade) and Ny-Ålesund (1.5±0.1 % per decade) and no significant annual trend at Oslo (0.1±0.5 % per decade) but significantly positive trends in autumn at all stations. Finally we found positive but insignificant trends of around 3 % per decade in March at all three stations, which may be an indication of Arctic springtime ozone recovery. Our results contribute to a better understanding of regional total ozone trends at northern high latitudes, which is essential to assess how Arctic ozone responds to changes in ODSs and to climate change.

Global Observing System Experiments within the Météo-France 4D-Var Data Assimilation System

Abstract Observing system experiments were undertaken within the 4D-Var data assimilation of the Météo-France global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. A 6-month period was chosen (October 2019–March 2020) where 40 million observations per day were assimilated. The importance of in situ observations provided by aircraft, radiosondes, and surface weather stations, despite their small fractional amount (7%), has been confirmed particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. Moreover, the largest impact over Europe in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE) scores comes from surface observations. Satellite data play a dominant role over tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere. Microwave radiances have a more pronounced impact on the long range and on the humidity field than infrared radiances, despite being less numerous (10% versus 80%). Bending angles impact significantly the quality of the upper-troposphere–lower-stratosphere temperature of the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) are beneficial in wind forecasts at low and high levels in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere, but also in the humidity field. Such impacts are only significant during the first 48 h of the forecasts. Scatterometer winds have an impact restricted to low levels that is kept at longer ranges. A comparison with forecast sensitivity–observation impact studies over a 3-month period using the same measure of short-range (24-h) forecast errors reveals that the ranking between the major observing systems is kept between these two ways of measuring observation impact in NWP. From our conclusions, recommendations are provided on possible evolutions of the global observing system for NWP.

Influence of Stratospheric Ozone Changes on Stratospheric Temperature Trends in Recent Decades

Associated with the recovery of stratospheric ozone, stratospheric cooling has decelerated since the late 1990s. This study investigates the contribution of ozone changes to the long-term stratospheric temperature trends in recent decades using satellite observations and model simulations. Observational analysis shows that total column ozone experienced little depletion in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and weak recovery in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in the period 1998–2020. It is found that the cease of stratospheric ozone depletion has reduced the stratospheric cooling from 1998 onwards, especially in the summer hemisphere. The correlation analysis indicates that the lower-stratospheric temperature is primarily regulated by ozone changes. The ozone recovery in the SH is associated with the weak warming in the lower stratosphere in the period 1998–2020 in summer. The impact of ozone changes is further isolated in the ozone-only experiments from CMIP6. We find that ozone depletion results in significant cooling in the summer hemisphere in the period 1979–1997, especially in the upper and lower stratosphere, while ozone recovery leads to significant warming in the summer hemisphere in the period 1998–2020 in the upper stratosphere. Our results also suggest that the wave-mean flow interactions associated with stratospheric ozone variations may play an important role in regulating the strength of polar vortex in winter.

Major Contribution of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases to Global Surface Temperature Change

This paper aims to better understand why there was a global warming pause in 2000–2015 and why the global mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen again in recent years. We present and statistically analyze substantial time-series observed datasets of global lower-stratospheric temperature (GLST), troposphere–stratosphere temperature climatology, global land surface air temperature, GMST, sea ice extent (SIE) and snow cover extent (SCE), combined with modeled calculations of GLSTs and GMSTs. The observed and analyzed results show that GLST/SCE has stabilized since the mid-1990s with no significant change over the past two and a half decades. Upper-stratospheric warming at high latitudes has been observed and GMST or global land surface air temperature has reached a plateau since the mid-2000s with the removal of natural effects. In marked contrast, continued drastic warmings at the coasts of polar regions (particularly Russia and Alaska) are observed and well explained by the sea-ice-loss warming amplification mechanism. The calculated GMSTs by the parameter-free quantum-physics warming model of halogenated greenhouse gases (GHGs) show excellent agreement with the observed GMSTs after the natural El Niño southern oscillation and volcanic effects are removed. These results have provided strong evidence for the dominant warming mechanism of anthropogenic halogenated GHGs. The results also call for closer scrutiny of the assumptions made in current climate models.

Australian wildfires cause the largest stratospheric warming since Pinatubo and extends the lifetime of the Antarctic ozone hole

Global mean lower stratosphere temperatures rose abruptly in January 2020 reaching values not experienced since the early 1990s. Anomalously high lower stratospheric temperatures were recorded for 4 months at highly statistically significant levels. Here, we use a combination of satellite and surface-based remote sensing observations to derive a time-series of stratospheric biomass burning aerosol optical depths originating from intense SouthEastern Australian wildfires and use these aerosol optical depths in a state-of-the-art climate model. We show that the S.E. Australian wildfires are the cause of this lower stratospheric warming. We also investigate the radiatively-driven dynamical response to the observed stratospheric ozone perturbation and find a significant strengthening of the springtime Antarctic polar vortex suggesting that biomass burning aerosols play a significant role in the observed anomalous longevity of the ozone hole in 2020.

Exploration of the stratosphere with cosmic-ray muons detected underground

Cosmic radiation is a potential additional tool for atmospheric monitoring. High-energy cosmic rays, interacting in the atmosphere, produce secondary particles, the production and propagation of which are ruled by the state of the atmosphere. Atmospheric muons carry information on the stratosphere, as its temperature modulates their intensity. Here, we present a comprehensive investigation of the 24-year series of the muon flux recorded underground with the Large Volume Detector in the Gran Sasso Laboratory in Italy. Using advanced spectral-analysis methods, we reveal, in addition to the well-known annual cycle, two significant variations with periods of about four and ten years. These two multiannual components, however, are not present in the series of the so-called effective temperature—an average parameter commonly used to describe the entire atmospheric profile in relationship to the detected muon flux—but we find them in the series of the raw temperatures in the lower-stratospheric levels. We show that the weaker multiannual cycles emerge in the temperature series thanks to the dampening of the dominant annual radiative cycle at these levels, which are affected by higher-frequency variability related to transport and wave processes. We also show that the multiannual variations are not typical only of the Gran Sasso area but are present at large scales throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The analysis of the series of the muon flux also reveals evidence of daily to monthly scale variations, especially during the highly variable winter period. Although such short-term modulations are also found in the series of the effective temperature, we show that the variations of the two series are brought to better agreement when considering only specific layers of the atmosphere depending on the event. The amplitudes of the multiannual variations are significantly larger than those expected based on the temperature modulations. Such differences may be due to acknowledged difficulties of the adopted temperature reanalysis dataset to thoroughly represent long-term variability scales, so that long-term modulations in the raw temperature series and, consequently, in the effective temperature record would result as artificially attenuated. The muon flux therefore may be envisaged as a high time-resolution integrated proxy of lower-stratospheric temperatures.4 MoreReceived 28 September 2021Accepted 1 February 2022DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.4.023226Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article's title, journal citation, and DOI.Published by the American Physical SocietyPhysics Subject Headings (PhySH)Research AreasAtmospheric scienceTechniquesCosmic rays & astroparticlesGravitation, Cosmology & AstrophysicsInterdisciplinary Physics

Rate constants for the reaction of SO with NO2 over the temperature range 220–960 K

AbstractThe kinetics of the reaction of SO radicals with NO2 have been studied in a discharge flow reactor combined with an electron impact ionization quadrupole mass spectrometer at nearly 2 Torr total pressure of helium and in the temperature range 220–960 K. The reaction rate constant was determined under pseudo‐first order conditions in excess of NO2 over SO using two different methods for generation of the SO radicals: k1 = (6.7 ± 0.2) × 10−12 exp(295 ± 10)/T) cm3 molecule−1 s−1 (the uncertainties represent precision at the 2σ level, the estimated total uncertainty on the rate constant being 15% at all temperatures). The present measurements indicate that the current recommendations for k1 underestimate the rate constant at low stratospheric temperatures and overestimate it at the high temperatures characteristic of combustion.

Relationships between Extratropical Precipitation Systems and UTLS Temperatures and Tropopause Height from GPM and GPS-RO

This study characterizes the relationship between extratropical precipitation systems to changes in upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) temperature and tropopause height within different environments. Precipitation features (PFs) observed by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite are collocated with GPS radio occultation (RO) temperature profiles from 2014 to 2017 and classified as non-deep stratospheric intrusion (non-DSI; related to convective instability) or deep stratospheric intrusion (DSI; related to strong dynamic effects on the tropopause). Non-DSI PFs introduce warming (up to 1 K) in the upper troposphere, transitioning to strong cooling (up to −3.5 K) around the lapse rate tropopause (LRT), and back to warming (up to 2.5 K, particularly over the ocean) in the lower stratosphere. UTLS temperature anomalies for DSI events are driven predominantly by large scale dynamics, with major cooling (up to −6 K) observed from the mid-troposphere to the LRT, which transitions to strong warming (up to 4 K) in the lower stratosphere. Small and deep non-DSI PFs typically result in a lower LRT (up to 0.4 km), whereas large but weaker PFs lead to a higher LRT with similar magnitudes. DSI events are associated with larger LRT height decreases, with anomalies of almost −2 km near the deepest PFs. These results suggest intricate relationships between precipitation systems and the UTLS temperature structure. Importantly, non-DSI PF temperature anomalies show patterns similar to tropical convection, which provides unification of previous tropical research with extratropical barotropic convective impacts to UTLS temperatures.

What Contributes to the Inter‐Annual Variability in Tropical Lower Stratospheric Temperatures?

AbstractThe inter‐annual variability in mid and lower stratospheric temperatures for the period 1984–2019 is decomposed into dynamical and radiative contributions using a radiative calculation perturbed with changes in dynamical heating, trace gases and aerosol optical depth. The temperature timeseries obtained is highly correlated with the de‐seasonalized ERA5 temperature (r2 > 0.6 in the region 15 to 70 hPa, 1992 to 2019–after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption). Ozone and dynamical heating contributions are found to be equally important, with water vapor, stratospheric aerosols, and carbon dioxide playing smaller roles. Prominent aspects of the temperature timeseries are closely reproduced, including the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption, the year‐2000 water vapor drop, and the 2016 Quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) disruption. Below 20 hPa, ozone is primarily controlled by transport and is positively correlated to the upwelling. This ozone‐transport feedback acts to increase the temperature response to a change in upwelling by providing an additional ozone‐induced radiative temperature change. This can be quantified as an enhancement of the dynamical heating of about 20% at 70 hPa. A Principal Oscillation Pattern (POP) analysis is used to estimate the contribution of the ozone QBO (±1 K at 70 hPa). The non‐QBO ozone variability is also shown to be significant. Using the QBO leading POP timeseries as representative of the regular QBO signal, the QBO 2016 disruption is shown to have an anomalously large radiative impact on temperature due to the ozone change ( at 70 hPa).

Day-to-day variability of upper troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature in response to Taal volcanic eruption inferred from COSMIC-2 RO measurements

For the first time after 43 years of its previous eruption in 1977, the Taal volcano in the Philippines (14°N, 120°.59E) erupted in the afternoon of 12 January 2020. Due to the strong anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere (~150 hPa), the resultant volcanic ash and sulfur dioxide (SO2) were transported to the downwind tropical central Pacific Ocean within a few days after the initial eruption. In this study, day-to-day variability of upper troposphere lower stratosphere (UTLS) temperature in response to the Taal volcanic eruption event over the source region (±5o latitude and longitude around the volcano) and the downwind Pacific region (10-20oN, 160-180°E) is delineated by using the recently launched Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC)-2 radio occultation (RO) data. The daily mean temperature over the source and downwind regions were compared with the background long-term January mean temperature (obtained from 2007 to 2019 COSMIC-1 RO data) over the respective regions. Significant positive temperature anomalies in the lower stratosphere are evident over the source (between 12 and 14 January) and downwind (between 14 and 19 January) regions after the eruption. These positive anomalies may be due to the association of absorption and local radiative heating by volcanic aerosols. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements clearly show the presence of SO2 in the UTLS region. The presence of sulfate aerosols in the UTLS region a few days after eruption is also supported by the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) images. Furthermore, we also describe the temperature structure near the volcano and away from the volcano and found a quite different structure in the UTLS region. A significant temperature inversion at ~15 km altitude is evident near the volcano, whereas it is noticed at ~16 km away from the volcano. In conclusion, in line with the previous studies, the present study provides further insights to the UTLS temperature in response to volcanic eruptions.

Diurnal Cycles of Synthetic Microwave Sounding Lower-Stratospheric Temperatures from Radio Occultation Observations, Reanalysis, and Model Simulations

Abstract An observationally based global climatology of the temperature diurnal cycle in the lower stratosphere is derived from 11 different satellites with global positioning system–radio occultation (GPS-RO) measurements from 2006 to 2020. Methods used in our analysis allow for accurate characterization of global stratospheric temperature diurnal cycles, even in the high latitudes where the diurnal signal is small but longer time-scale variability is large. A climatology of the synthetic Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Advanced MSU (AMSU) Temperature in the Lower Stratosphere (TLS) is presented to assess the accuracy of diurnal cycle climatologies for the MSU and AMSU TLS observations, which have traditionally been generated by model data. The TLS diurnal ranges are typically less than 0.4 K in all latitude bands and seasons investigated. It is shown that the diurnal range (maximum minus minimum temperature) of TLS is largest over Southern Hemisphere tropical land in the boreal winter season, indicating the important role of deep convection. The range, phase, and seasonality of the TLS diurnal cycle are generally well captured by the WACCM6 simulation and ERA5 dataset. We also present an observationally based diurnal cycle climatology of temperature profiles from 300 to 10 hPa for various latitude bands and seasons and compare the ERA5 data with the observations.

Interannual Variability and Trends in Sea Surface Temperature, Lower and Middle Atmosphere Temperature at Different Latitudes for 1980–2019

The influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) on the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature in the tropical, middle, and polar latitudes is studied for 1980–2019 based on the MERRA2, ERA5, and Met Office reanalysis data, and numerical modeling with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) of the lower and middle atmosphere. The variability of SST is analyzed according to Met Office and ERA5 data, while the variability of atmospheric temperature is investigated according to MERRA2 and ERA5 data. Analysis of sea surface temperature trends based on reanalysis data revealed that a significant positive SST trend of about 0.1 degrees per decade is observed over the globe. In the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the trend (about 0.2 degrees per decade) is 2 times higher than the global average, and 5 times higher than in the Southern Hemisphere (about 0.04 degrees per decade). At polar latitudes, opposite SST trends are observed in the Arctic (positive) and Antarctic (negative). The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon on the temperature of the lower and middle atmosphere in the middle and polar latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is discussed. To assess the relative influence of SST, CO2, and other greenhouse gases’ variability on the temperature of the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere, numerical calculations with a CCM were performed for several scenarios of accounting for the SST and carbon dioxide variability. The results of numerical experiments with a CCM demonstrated that the influence of SST prevails in the troposphere, while for the stratosphere, an increase in the CO2 content plays the most important role.

Влияние аномалий температуры поверхности экваториальной и северной частей Тихого океана на стратосферу над Арктикой по расчетам климатической модели ИВМ РАН

Five 50-year simulations with version 5 of the INM RAS coupled climate model revealed that the winters with El Nio are characterized by higher Arctic stratospheric temperature as compared to the seasons with La Nia. Lower stratospheric temperature in the Arctic regions as compared to the seasons with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies corresponds to the winter seasons with positive SST anomalies in the North Pacific.

Influence of the Temperature of the Lower Subtropical Stratosphere on Antarctic Polar Vortex Dynamics

Stability of the stratospheric polar vortex in the winter–spring period is one of key factors of the duration and scales of stratospheric ozone depletion in a polar region. The Arctic polar vortex attains its peak intensity in winter, whereas the Antarctic vortex usually strengthens in early spring. As a result, large-scale ozone depletion occurs every year from August to November over the Antarctic, and short-term ozone loss occasionally occurs from January to March over the Arctic. In this work, we analyze the reason for the high strength and stability of the Antarctic polar vortex in the winter–spring period. A good agreement between the seasonal variations in the temperature of the subtropical lower stratosphere and in the zonal wind in the lower subpolar and polar stratosphere in the Southern Hemisphere is shown on the basis of ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The results of numerical simulations with the PlaSim-ICMMG-1.0 model show acceleration of zonal wind in the subpolar region with an increase in the temperature of the subtropical stratosphere. Thus, the winter–spring strengthening of the Antarctic polar vortex occurs due to an increase in the stratospheric equator-to-pole temperature gradient caused by the seasonal increase in the temperature of the lower subtropical stratosphere in this period.

Progress in Simulating the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in CMIP Models

AbstractThe quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) of the zonal mean zonal wind is the primary mode of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere. The QBO is characterized by alternating easterly westerly shear layers that descend down from ∼10 to 100 hPa. The QBO is also seen in lower stratospheric tropical temperature, water vapor, and ozone and affects tropospheric variability through various teleconnections. We examine here the progress in simulating the QBO in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models, more specifically in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models. We show that the number of models that are able to simulate the QBO has increased from 0 in CMIP3, to 5 in CMIP5, to 15 in CMIP6. While the number of models with an internally generated QBO has tripled from CMIP5 to CMIP6, the fidelity of the simulation averaged over the CMIP models has not improved. We show that CMIP5 and CMIP6 models represent the QBO period and latitudinal extent quite well; however the QBO amplitude is shifted upwards relative to observations resulting in large underestimation of QBO amplitude at all levels below 20 hPa. The underestimation of QBO amplitude in the lowermost stratosphere and lack of variations downward to the tropopause and below will likely impact the quality of teleconnections seen in the current generation Earth system models.