Abstract
The influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) on the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature in the tropical, middle, and polar latitudes is studied for 1980–2019 based on the MERRA2, ERA5, and Met Office reanalysis data, and numerical modeling with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) of the lower and middle atmosphere. The variability of SST is analyzed according to Met Office and ERA5 data, while the variability of atmospheric temperature is investigated according to MERRA2 and ERA5 data. Analysis of sea surface temperature trends based on reanalysis data revealed that a significant positive SST trend of about 0.1 degrees per decade is observed over the globe. In the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the trend (about 0.2 degrees per decade) is 2 times higher than the global average, and 5 times higher than in the Southern Hemisphere (about 0.04 degrees per decade). At polar latitudes, opposite SST trends are observed in the Arctic (positive) and Antarctic (negative). The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon on the temperature of the lower and middle atmosphere in the middle and polar latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is discussed. To assess the relative influence of SST, CO2, and other greenhouse gases’ variability on the temperature of the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere, numerical calculations with a CCM were performed for several scenarios of accounting for the SST and carbon dioxide variability. The results of numerical experiments with a CCM demonstrated that the influence of SST prevails in the troposphere, while for the stratosphere, an increase in the CO2 content plays the most important role.
Highlights
Opposite sea surface temperature (SST) trends are observed in the Arctic and Antarctic
Reanalysis data, as well as numerical simulations with a global chemistry-climate model of the lower and middle atmosphere were used to study the effect of sea surface temperature and carbon dioxide variability on the temperature of the lower troposphere and low stratosphere during the period from 1980 to 2019
Analysis of sea surface temperature trends based on reanalysis data revealed that, on average, a significant positive SST trend of about 0.01 degrees per year is observed over the globe
Summary
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. The results of chemistry-climate modeling of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature variability based on the given scenarios of changes in the atmospheric content of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances (ODS), as well as taking into account other factors, such as volcanic aerosol and solar activity, are generally in good quantitative agreement with satellite measurements [43]. Simultaneous trends and short-term variability of the sea surface and atmospheric temperature are estimated for the different regions and altitudes based on the reanalysis data and numerical experiments with a global chemistry-climate model for the last forty years (1980–2019). Results of model estimation were interpolated to the 31 vertical pressure levels (14 levels in the troposphere and 17 levels in the stratosphere and mesosphere)
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