Low Stock Levels Research Articles

Agricultural price volatility and speculation by commodity index funds: a theoretical analysis

PurposeThe role that speculation in futures markets plays during food price spikes is a subject of lively dispute. This issue is often addressed with empirical analyses. They suffer from data limitations and focus on the short-term impacts. The paper aims to discuss these issues.Design/methodology/approachThe authors develop a theoretical model to explain the behaviour of speculators and producers in futures and cash markets. Compared to the only two theoretical analyses by Vercammen and Doroudian where informational externalities are excluded and by Fishe et al. where production responses are excluded, the authors introduce both informational externalities and lagged production responses.FindingsThe authors find that the expanded net long positions of commodity index funds (CIF) are inconsistent with lower stock levels that typically prevail before the price spikes. These positions stimulate production, hence stocks, before the price spikes. Thus they contribute to soften the price volatility.Practical implicationsThe simulation results indicate that before imposing new regulations on financial markets, such as position limits on index funds, their beneficial medium-term effect as a hedging instrument for commercial participants should not be omitted or underestimated.Originality/valueBecause the authors develop a second-best theoretical framework, the authors find that CIF are not a systematic cause of medium-term market swings.

Essential drug stock alert tracker in provincial department of Health Services Western Province

Introduction The health indices in Sri Lanka are well above the regional health indices, which can be partly attributed to the free health care system. However, lack of pharmacy supplies in government health institutions, especially in divisional hospitals, is a major complaint from the general public. Health care institutions under the purview of Provincial Director of Health Services (PDHS) receive pharmacy items from the Regional Medical Supplies Division (RMSD). Some of the reasons for shortage of pharmacy items are poor communication between RMSD and health institutions, mal-distribution of items at RMSD and actual drug shortage. Currently there is no manual or electronic mechanism to monitor the institution’s essential drugs at any level, resulting in difficulty to replenish stocks in a timely manner. Objective The objective of this system is to alert the health care institutional heads and regional/provincial administrators about essential drug status and to effectively mobilize the available drugs. Methods A Web based system was designed with a simple data entry format and color code system. A dashboard facilitates the visualization of the available stock with green (satisfactory), yellow (reorder), red (zero stock). User levels in the system include institution, RMSD, Regional and Provincial levels. Currently 26 essential drug items are monitored by the system. Results Before implementing the system, there were 38 occasions (11.73%) of zero stock level for any of the 26 essential drugs in Divisional hospitals. In 66(20.37%) occasions the drugs were at low stock level. This has improved to 1.54% and 8.02% respectively as at April 2016. Conclusion Both Knowledge and Practices for a preparedness of a chemical hazard were not adequate. Some key factors were significantly associated with service duration and teaching subject at school of study subjects. Policy guidelines to assess the disaster drills, training programmes ensuring attendance of all school population are recommended. Coordinated assistance from Disaster Management Centre and health sector should be arranged.

Information technologies in integrated logistics

The rapid development of the Internet and the use of new possibilities which the digital technologies have brought about, have made significant changes in all the areas of business, including logistics. The question of whether the advantages of information technology should be used in integrated logistics is no longer posed, rather a new question arises - 'How to exploit the advantages of the modern electronic business?'. This work attempts at answering this broad & complex question. All the subsystems of integrated logistics, such as warehousing, order processing and supply, must be integrated in one unique system via IT. A well established information; system may improve the company's attempts to satisfy the customer's needs, thus improving the aim of the integrated logistics. The practice of successful companies has shown that the elements of integrated logistics, such as low stock levels, just in time delivery, the possibility of replacement of goods depend on timely and accurate flow of information. The application of IT enables faster processing of information, which influences the logistics systems management significantly. Nowadays, the most widely used IT in logistics are: DSS, EDI, barcode technology, RFID. The efficient consumer service policies will soon be inconceivable without the use of these technologies, which is the reason, why they are explored with special attention in this part of the paper. The final part of the paper will show a practical example of the usage of RFID technology for the reduction of fresh food waste in retail. RFID technology enables the optimization of the entire logistics system, since it monitors the stock continually regardless of whether the products are in the process of manufacturing, distribution center, a retail store or in transport.

A Framework for Integration of Additive Manufacturing Technologies in Production Networks

Flexibility in manufacturing operations is becoming increasingly important to industrial firms, due to e.g., increasing market demand volatility and shorter product life cycles. Additive manufacturing technologies show great potential in adding flexibility to manufacturing operations through nearly unlimited freedom in product design, very high product mix flexibility, decentralized production and the ability to produce new product variants after a very short period of time. This could result in shorter lead times, lower stock levels, higher product availability and lower transportation costs. Therefore companies have to incorporate the increased flexibility in their decision, especially on the production network level, when they decide whether to use additive manufacturing or not. Current methods are not able to take into account all of these flexibility types and the respective benefits. The application of an appropriate method could lead to a realistic evaluation and an increased use of additive manufacturing technologies. This paper evaluates state of the art methods, especially from the field of strategic production network planning. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a framework for integration of additive manufacturing technologies in production networks using the Real Option value as target criteria. Finally, we discuss where further research is needed in order to develop an applicable method based on the presented framework.

Current Status, Future Expectations and Mitigation Potential Scenarios for China's Primary Aluminium Industry

Over the past three decades, China has undergone a strong economic growth, largely industry-driven. The rise of consumption resulted in increasing material requirements like steel, cement, plastic and aluminium. Regarding aluminium, the in-use stock increased to 58.9kg/capita in 2009, from around 8.5kg/capita in 1989 and 19.4kg/capita in 1999. China's role in the aluminium industry is crucial. On its own, it produces around half of the world's primary aluminium output, destined for both domestic consumption and international export markets. However China's domestic bauxite reserves are limited and at current static exploitation would last for only 18 more years. Considering the low quality of its bauxite and the young and relatively low in-use stock level, China has to rely mainly on primary production, by heavily depleting its bauxite resources and by importing foreign bauxite and alumina. Primary aluminium production takes however a high environmental toll. This paper evaluates the effect of changes in: energy efficiency due to the technological level of both electricity and aluminium production, quality of resources and share of secondary and primary production; on the environmental impact due to the Chinese primary aluminium sector, by means of forecasting scenarios and mitigation potentials.

Impacts of extensive driftnet fishery and late 1990s climate regime shift on dominant epipelagic nekton in the Transition Region and Subtropical Frontal Zone: Implications for fishery management

We investigated the impacts of extensive anthropogenic (high seas driftnet squid fishery) and natural (late 1990s major climate regime shift) events on dominant epipelagic fish, squid, and shark in the central North Pacific Transition Region based on a driftnet survey covering the years 1979–2006. Fishing was conducted by Japan, Korea and Taiwan to target neon flying squid in the period 1979–1992, resulting in a decline in stocks of the target species and non-target species (Pacific pomfret and juvenile blue shark), which were by-catch of this fishery. The catch was found to be at the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) level for neon flying squid, the underfished level for juvenile blue shark, but the overfished level for Pacific pomfret. The MSY of Pacific pomfret indicated that this species is more susceptible to exploitation than previously considered. In response to the late 1990s regime shift, neon flying squid and Pacific saury showed low stock levels in 1999–2002 and 1998–2002, respectively, as a result of reduced productivity in their nursery grounds (the Subtropical Frontal Zone and Kuroshio Extension Bifurcation Region, respectively). On the other hand, Pacific pomfret showed no decreasing trend in stock during the low- and intermediate-productivity regimes because of the high productivity of their main spawning/nursery ground (Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front), which was independent of the regime shifts. Thus, squid and saury appear to be more susceptible to the regime shift than pomfret. We discuss the implications for stock management of the species-specific responses to the fishery and the regime shift.

Online Inventory Disclosure: Consumer Uncertainty and Experience

Given varied consumer perceptions of inventory information, online retailers' presentation of such information influences purchase behavior. We investigate an online retailer's optimal inventory disclosure policy assuming two distinct consumer segments: savvy (or, experienced) consumers, who can predict a retailer's stock levels (even when masked) and naive (or, inexperienced) consumers who rely on prior beliefs regarding (unknown, and hence stochastic) inventory. We analyze a two-period setting in which a retailer clears residual stock in the second period. By jointly and optimally addressing both inventory disclosure and pricing, a retailer can leverage heterogeneous consumers' sensitivity to stock-out risk and thus discourage strategic purchase deferrals. We find that inventory information masking and sharing tactics are optimal at high and low stocking levels, respectively. Even though the threshold structure of this optimal disclosure strategy is robust to the relative proportion of savvy and naive consumers, optimal retailer pro t changes substantially depending on market composition. We find that, if a sufficiently large savvy consumer segment exists, incorrectly assuming all consumers are naive may yield a substantial pro fit loss, even higher than the loss the retailer would have incurred by implementing an incorrect inventory disclosure strategy.

Detecting the presence of depensation in collapsed fisheries: The case of the Northern cod stock

Motivated by the evidence that many collapsed stocks have failed to recover despite the fact that fishing mortality has been reduced, or even when a moratorium is in effect, we develop a methodological approach using splines to analyze the stochastic population dynamics of fish stocks at low stock levels. Considering the aggregate Northern cod stock by way of illustration, we find that the species’ lack of recovery, despite the moratorium which still remains in force, is consistent with the hypothesis of depensatory population dynamics at low population sizes, as opposed to the compensation estimated by the conventional regression methods used in classic bioeconomic models.

Long-term variation in common dolphin diet in relation to prey abundance

MEPS Marine Ecology Progress Series Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsTheme Sections MEPS 481:249-268 (2013) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps10233 Long-term variation in common dolphin diet in relation to prey abundance M. Begoña Santos1,*, Imogen German1,2, Diana Correia1,3, Fiona L. Read1,2, Jose Martinez Cedeira4, Mara Caldas5, Alfredo López4, Francisco Velasco6, Graham J. Pierce2 1Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo, PO Box 1552, 36200 Vigo, Spain 2Oceanlab, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire AB41 6AA, UK 3University of Algarve, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal 4CEMMA, PO Box 15, 36380 Gondomar, Spain 5Investigación Planificación y Dessarrollo S.A., Paseo Imperial 10-12, Bajo, 28005 Madrid, Spain 6Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Santander, Promontorio San Martín, s/n. PO Box 240, 39080 Santander, Spain *Email: m.b.santos@vi.ieo.es ABSTRACT: Understanding the effects of changes in prey abundance on predators is essential to predict responses of marine ecosystems to perturbation and ensure sustainable fishing. As abundant top predators feeding largely on commercially exploited fish, common dolphins Delphinus delphis are expected to be affected by fluctuations in fish abundance. Previous studies variously suggest that common dolphins show a preference for energy-rich species or that they are opportunistic predators. In the latter case, the intensity of predation on all prey species would be expected to vary in proportion to their abundances. If such relationships are seen for only a few prey species, and the importance of other species varies inversely with the abundance of these ‘preferred’ prey, this would indicate selective feeding. We suggest that studies on diet at the population level can provide insights into such individual-level foraging decisions. We analysed stomach contents from 514 stranded and by-caught common dolphins in Galicia (NW Spain), collected over 2 decades. The most important prey were sardine, blue whiting and hake. Using zero-inflated generalised additive models to deal with non-linear relationships and the high number of zeros in prey count data, we tested for evidence of ‘preference’ for the main prey species, as well as confirming the existence of ontogenetic, spatial and seasonal variation in diet. Relationships between diet and annual prey abundance do not conclusively confirm either opportunistic or selective predation, but there is more evidence for the former. Lack of evidence for selective predation on energy-rich sardine could be due to current low stock levels. KEY WORDS: Diet selection · Sardine · Hake · Blue whiting · Feeding ecology · Zero-inflated models Full text in pdf format PreviousNextCite this article as: Santos MB, German I, Correia D, Read FL and others (2013) Long-term variation in common dolphin diet in relation to prey abundance. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 481:249-268. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps10233 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in MEPS Vol. 481. Online publication date: May 07, 2013 Print ISSN: 0171-8630; Online ISSN: 1616-1599 Copyright © 2013 Inter-Research.

Improving Stock Management in Healthcares to Increase Efficiency

Purpose: Traditional hospital management focuses on stock control and orders system based on cost, time and image of hospital. Many patients cannot get effective treatment due to lack of quality in services and lack of medicines in healthcares. The main purpose of the article is to find reasons behind lack of efficiency in healthcare services in 8 big hospitals in the province of Erzurum. Design/methodology/approach: The method is used in this article to analyze the system of hospitals located in the province of Erzurum, eastern part of Turkey by asking open questions with some options. Forms were filled by top management of hospitals. Findings: It is found that they mainly depend on government policies and have low efficiency and high regulatory stock level. Moreover, there is a big bureaucracy in all operations found as the biggest obstacle behind lack of efficiency. Research limitations/implications: This work can be generalized by comparing hospitals in different part of Turkey. Improving Stock Management In Healthcares To Increase Efficiency 90 Originality/value: This paper brings beneficial results to see the profiles and problems of hospitals located in the province of Erzurum and analyze their last 5 years.

Growth and Survival of Picea glauca following Thinning of Plantations Affected by Eastern Spruce Budworm

Abstract The effects of thinning treatments on growth and survivorship of white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) plantations affected by recent eastern spruce budworm (SBW) outbreaks were examined over a 5-year period in northern Minnesota. Thinning treatments increased individual tree growth, live crown ratios (LCRs), and survival relative to unthinned stands. Overall, stands affected by SBW had lower rates of volume production than unaffected stands. In addition, individual tree volume growth was greater in thinned SBW-affected stands relative to unthinned SBW-affected stands. Across stand conditions, individual tree postthinning volume growth response was best predicted by the interaction of prethinning LCR and postthinning relative density (RD). In particular, at low stocking levels (RD = 0.20) higher live crown values resulted in the highest volume growth ratios. On the other hand, at higher stocking levels (RD 0.40–0.55) volume growth was fairly consistent, regardless of LCRs. Across all stocking levels, a minimum LCR of 40% appears to ensure high tree and stand growth rates and is also an indicator of a tree's ability to respond positively to thinning. This plasticity of white spruce suggests that stands maintained at these crown target levels can achieve high levels of stand and individual tree productivity as long as appropriate LCRs are maintained.

A new method for evaluating forest thinning: growth dominance in managed Pinus resinosa stands

Growth dominance is a relatively new, simple, quantitative metric of within-stand individual tree growth patterns, and is defined as positive when larger trees in the stand display proportionally greater growth than smaller trees, and negative when smaller trees display proportionally greater growth than larger trees. We examined long-term silvicultural experiments in red pine ( Pinus resinosa Ait.) to characterize how stand age, thinning treatments (thinned from above, below, or both), and stocking levels (residual basal area) influence stand-level growth dominance through time. In stands thinned from below or from both above and below, growth dominance was not significantly different from zero at any age or stocking level. Growth dominance in stands thinned from above trended from negative at low stocking levels to positive at high stocking levels and was positive in young stands. Growth dominance in unthinned stands was positive and increased with age. These results suggest that growth dominance provides a useful tool for assessing the efficacy of thinning treatments designed to reduce competition between trees and promote high levels of productivity across a population, particularly among crop trees.

Low stock levels and increased buyer interest provides boost to the market

Low stock levels and increased buyer interest provides boost to the market

EU worries about winter middle distillate supplies

Middle distillate prices in Europe have risen considerably in the run‐up to winter. Some seasonal strength is normal at this time of year as refiners and wholesalers stock‐up for the winter season, but prices have been boosted by a combination of other factors, including changes in product specifications in the UK, refinery problems, low stock levels and a decrease in exports of middle distillate from Russia.

Stochastic Bio-Economic Model of Northern Atlantic and Mediterranean Bluefin Tuna

The purpose of this paper is to study the implications of introducing a stochastic stock in a multi-gear and age structured bio-economic model for the Northern Atlantic Bluefin tuna. In order to account for variations on the recruitment, uncertainty is introduced on a bilinear recruitment function, and it is represented by an exponential random error term leading the stock to be, on average, higher than in the deterministic case. Both the bionomic equilibrium and the optimal management of this species are examined. In the latter, two alternative instruments are studied: the constant total allowable catch and the constant effort and the purpose is to maximize the expected total net present value. The conclusions enhance that the results do not differ significantly from those in the deterministic model, that is, the fishing effort should be the policy instrument to adopt, both in the East and the West Atlantic. Despite the previous reasoning, the shock on recruitment should be taken into account, as certain realizations of the random variable may lead to different results. In particular, for low Bluefin tuna stock levels, it is optimal to regulate the caches instead of the fishing effort, to ensure the stock recovery.

Regulation and Evolution of Compliance in Common Pool Resources

AbstractThe evolution of compliance with regulation and the evolution of a CPR stock are modeled jointly in a setup where replicator dynamics describing compliance with harvesting rules are combined with resource stock dynamics. This evolutionary approach suggests that in long‐run equilibrium, coexistence of both cooperative and non‐cooperative rules is possible under regulation. Stock effects on profits and a certain structure of auditing probabilities could imply the emergence of a limit cycle in areas of low stock levels, as an equilibrium outcome. It might be easier for the regulator to obtain full compliance under precommitment to fixed auditing probabilities.

Implications for current management advice for North Sea plaice ( Pleuronectes platessa L.): Part II. Increased biological realism in recruitment, growth, density-dependent sexual maturation and the impact of sexual dimorphism and fishery discards

Since the early 20th century there have been many descriptions of variability in the growth and sexual maturation of North Sea plaice, both through time and between the sexes. There have also been large changes in plaice abundance and recruitment against a background of increasing fishing pressure and changing environmental conditions. This paper evaluates the importance of sexual dimorphism, trends in growth and recruitment, density-dependent sexual maturation and discarding and considers their implications for current stock assessment and management practice. Density-dependent sexual maturation may be important at low stock levels by providing resilience to stock collapse. The productivity of the stock varied over a time scale of 10–15 years. Discarding of small fish by the fishery can have a substantial influence on the productivity of the stock and bias our perception of both productivity and stock size, and has major implications for the management of North Sea plaice.

Bioeconomic Analysis of By-Catch of Juvenile Fish in the Shrimp Fisheries – an Evaluation of Management Procedures in the Barents Sea

A bioeconomic model on the management ofby-catch of juvenile fish in the shrimp fisheryin the Barents Sea and the Svalbard Zone,presented by the Norwegian Directorate ofFisheries to the Joint Norwegian RussianFisheries Commission in 1993, is evaluated. The model is based on management of by-catchthrough closure of areas when the by-catch ofjuvenile fish from commercially importantspecies exceeds a critical number. It isargued that although the model may prove usefulin bringing economic rationale into themanagement of by-catch, care must be taken whenstocks are in poor shape. This is illustratedby using the high mortality rates and low stocklevels experienced for cod and haddock in 2000,and which is expected for the next couple ofyears. It is therefore discussed when it isappropriate to use the model with reference tothe Code of Conduct provided by FAO in 1995.

An impulse control problem of a production model with interruptions to follow stochastic demand

The paper deals with the stochastic optimal intervention problem which arises in a production & storage system involving identical items. The requests for items arrive at random and the production of an item can be interrupted during production to meet the corresponding demand. The operational costs considered are due to the stock/backlog, running costs and set up costs associated to interruptions and re-initializations. The process presents distinct behaviour on each of two disjoint identical subsets of the state space, and the state process can only be transferred from one subset to the other by interventions associated to interruptions/re-initializations. A characterization is given in terms of piecewise deterministic Markov process, which explores the aforementioned structure, and a method of solution with assured convergence, that does not require any special initialization, is provided. Additionally, we demonstrate that under conditions on the data, the optimal policy is to produce the item completely in a certain region of the state space of low stock level.

Outcome of an inshore spawning event by northern Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) at a low stock level

A large spawning aggregation of northern Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) was discovered in a fjord of Trinity Bay, Newfoundland, in April 1995, 3 years after the collapse of this stock and 1 year after the last offshore spawning aggregation was recorded. We hypothesized that spawning by this aggregation would increase the abundance/density of eggs and settled 0-group juveniles above the level of spawning in the bay during recent years. Data from 1995 were compared with ichthyoplankton and postsettlement juvenile surveys conducted in recent years. Egg density was significantly higher in 1995 than the pooled average of two recent years (1991 and 1993). The hypothesized increase in numbers of postsettlement age 0 fish was tested at three different spatial scales: the entire northeast coast of Newfoundland, individual bays, and areas within Trinity Bay. There was no detectable increase in catches of settled age 0 juveniles at any spatial scale. Consequently, while this large spawning aggregation produced locally high egg concentrations, it did not lead to a detectable increase in abundance of newly settled age 0 juveniles in coastal nursery areas. This study did not provide any direct evidence for an increase in recruitment in the inshore region due to the spawning output of locally abundant spawners in Trinity Bay.