Abstract Stage‐structured population models are widely used for plant demographic studies to assess population dynamics. Over the last several decades, there have been advancements in mark‐recapture methods in animal systems, but little to no use in plants because of the assumption that all individuals available for capture are seen. We examine population trends and demographic rates of a long‐lived forb derived from conventional matrix population models compared with mark‐recapture methods. We found a low probability of detection, primarily due to vegetative dormancy. While both models account for dormancy, only the mark‐recapture method detected a population trend. Elasticity describes the effects of changes in vital rates on the population growth rate. Similar elasticity values are thought to buffer populations from environmental stochasticity. Vital rate estimates differed between methods, resulting in a higher growth rate with conventional methods but greater evenness among vital rate importance for the mark‐recapture method. Synthesis and applications. This study highlights that long‐term demographic viability studies that have not addressed detectability can be revisited with minimal additional data to correct for imperfect detection. Plant studies have traditionally assumed perfect detection and may have missed trends, risk indicators, and conservation opportunities for rare plant populations.
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