European eel (Anguilla anguilla) survival modeling based on a 22-year capture-mark-recapture survey of a Mediterranean subpopulation.

Abstract

Since the 1980s, the European eel (Anguilla anguilla) has declined by over 90% in recruitment across its European and North African distribution area. This diadromous fish spawns at sea and migrates into continental waters, where it grows for three to more than 30 years, depending on habitat conditions and location. During their growth, different habitat use tactics can locally influence the life-history traits of eels, including their survival rates. Thus, the spatio-temporal dimension of this species is crucial for management. Based on a rare Mediterranean long-term survey of more than 20 years (2001-2022) in an artificial drainage canal connected to a vast brackish lagoon (the Vaccarès lagoon), we aimed to study the dynamics of one subpopulation's life-history traits. We used Bayesian multistate capture-mark-recapture (CMR) models to assess the temporal variability in survival and abundance at both seasonal and inter-annual scales, considering life-stage structure. High survival rates and low detection probabilities were found for the undifferentiated and female yellow stages. In contrast, female silver eels exhibited lower survival rates and higher capture probabilities. Estimating detection probabilities and survival rates enabled accurate assessment of relative abundance across different life stages and time periods. Our findings indicated a substantial decrease in the abundance of undifferentiated and female yellow eels in the early 2000s, whereas the abundance of female silver eels remained consistently low yet stable throughout the study period. Considering the life stage seemed essential to study the dynamics of the eel during its continental growing period. The present results will provide key elements to propose and implement suitable sustainable environmental management strategies for eel conservation.