Low Oil Prices Research Articles

Comprehensive evaluation of CCUS technology: A case study of China's first million-tonne CCUS-EOR project

CCUS, an emerging technology for reducing carbon emission, plays a crucial role in achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. CCUS technology exemplified by CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is gradually progressing from project demonstration to large-scale application. However, the commercial application still faces uncertainties in economic cost, energy efficiency and environmental benefits. This paper takes China's first million-tonne CCUS-EOR project (Qilu Petrochemical-Shengli Oilfield CCUS-EOR project) as an example, and establishes a comprehensive research framework for evaluating CCUS from the three dimensions of energy, environment, and economy, based on economic viability, energy input-output analysis, and carbon input-output analysis. The results demonstrate that during the project lifecycle, when the average oil price is $90/bbl, the project's NPV is $56.09 million, the project's IRR is 13.4 %, the payback period is 8.34 years, and the threshold oil price for the project to be economically profitable is $81.52/bbl. Furthermore, the Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of the project is 9.09, which considerably superior to that of the Shengli Oilfield's non-EOR, and the net energy output is approximately 18,472.57 kilobarrels. The Carbon Return on Investment (CROI) of the project is 4.12, with significant environmental benefits, and the cumulative net carbon emission reduction is approximately 8078.55 kilotonnes. Furthermore, the trends in EROI and CROI of the CCUS-EOR project demonstrate nearly opposite trajectories. The variation trends in EROI emerge N-shaped curve, while that of CROI emerge S-shaped curve. In summary, the Qilu Petrochemical-Shengli Oilfield CCUS-EOR project exhibits notable advantages in terms of energy efficiency and environmental benefits. However, the threshold oil price for triggering economic profitability is relatively high, which may pose certain economic risks to investors during periods of low oil price.

Time-varying effects of structural oil price shocks on financial market uncertainty

This study employed the structural oil price decomposition method proposed by Ready (2018) to decompose oil price shocks into oil risk shocks, demand shocks, and supply shocks. By using the Diebold and Yilmaz (DY) spillover index and rolling window methods, the static and dynamic spillovers of structural oil price shocks on financial market uncertainty were examined. The findings suggest that oil risk shocks exhibited the strongest spillover effects on financial market uncertainty (except for South Africa), followed by oil demand shocks, while oil supply shocks had virtually no impact. Second, the effects of structural oil price shocks on financial market uncertainty were time-varying. Third, significant differences in the spillover effects of structural oil price shocks on financial market uncertainty were found across countries, and the spillover effect of oil risk shocks on the financial market uncertainty in the United States was the largest in all periods. Fourth, the spillover effects of oil demand shocks on financial market uncertainty were larger in the high than in the low oil price period (except for Japan). Finally, during the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease) pandemic compared with the pre-epidemic period, the spillover effects of oil risk shocks on the financial market uncertainty in China significantly decreased, while simultaneously, the spillover effects of oil supply shocks on the financial market uncertainty in Australia substantially increased.

Polyetheramine enhanced biosurfactant/biopolymer flooding for enhanced oil recovery

The application of conventional alkali, surfactant and polymer in alkali/surfactant/polymer (ASP) flooding has exposed the inherent shortcomings of pollution and damage to reservoirs. Hence, finding new environmentally friendly alternatives is essential for the sustainable development of ASP flooding. In this paper, we proposed a novel ternary combination utilizing organic alkali polyetheramine, biosurfactant, and biopolymer as alternative chemical agents for ASP flooding. Specifically, the ASP system composed of polyetheramine D230, biosurfactant sophorolipid (SL) and biopolymer welan gum (WLG) exhibited excellent potential in improving oil recovery. The interfacial tension measurements proved that D230 could react with organic acids in crude oil to generate surface-active soaps, which cooperated with SL to reduce the oil–water interfacial tension to 10−2 mN/m. The rheological measurements demonstrated that the addition of D230 could increase the viscosity of low concentration WLG solution, but this phenomenon gradually disappeared with the rise of WLG concentration. Even at higher WLG concentration, D230 only caused a slight decrease in system viscosity, which facilitated the improvement of sweep efficiency. Emulsification and contact angle measurements indicated that D230/SL blend had outstanding emulsifying ability and successfully altered the quartz surface from oil-wet to water-wet. Core flooding experiments and micromodel experiments showed that the D230/SL/WLG system significantly enhanced oil recovery by 22.66 %, which was attributed to the high viscosity, low interfacial tension, excellent wettability reversal and emulsifying abilities of the system. The economic benefit assessment indicated that this ASP system has the potential to be economic, rendering it profitable even during periods of low oil prices. Furthermore, the EC50 value of 52,600 mg/L for D230/SL/WLG demonstrated its environmental friendliness.

PREDICTION OF CRUDE OIL PRICES IN INDONESIA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND ARIMA METHOD

Crude oil is one of the non-renewable natural resources that is crucial for countries around the world in driving economic development. However, the availability of crude oil is decreasing over time. The high demand for crude oil results in scarcity which causes price fluctuations. Low oil prices can reduce state revenues, disrupt development programs, and even trigger budget deficits. On the other hand, an increase in crude oil prices can make a positive contribution to state revenues. Crude oil exports become more profitable, which can increase state revenue through royalties and taxes levied on the oil and gas sector. This additional revenue can be used to support infrastructure development, social programs, and investment in key sectors of the economy. High oil prices can also harm the economy. With the many impacts that can be caused by crude oil prices, the government must be able to anticipate and prepare for it. The data used in this study are data on crude oil prices in Indonesia for monthly periods from January 2018 to October 2023 sourced from the official website of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of the Republic of Indonesia. The researcher tried to compare two analysis methods, namely the Fourier series and the ARIMA estimator. The results of this study show that the best method in predicting crude oil prices in Indonesia is the Fourier series estimator with Cos-Sin function which produces RMSE and MAPE values of 7.93 and 8.4%. The prediction results can be used as a reference for the government to anticipate and make programs or policies that are more focused and targeted toward the impacts that can be caused by changes in crude oil prices.

Oil Prices and Expectations: A Quantile Structural VAR Approach

Using a quantile structural vector autoregressive (QSVAR) approach, this study examines oil price reactions to consumer and business expectations. Unlike mean-based structural VARs, QSVAR analyses the full response distribution after an expectational shock. Findings indicate that the impact of expectation innovations on oil prices varies by quantile and agent. Positive business expectations increase oil prices via commodity demand, while consumer optimism mainly affects low oil prices. These insights aid policymakers in grasping how different agent expectations shape oil price distribution.

Investigating the impact of the future carbon market on the profitability of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects; the case of oil fields in southern Iraq

Carbon capture utilization and storage for enhanced oil recovery (CCUS-EOR) is considered a promising solution to meet future global energy needs while significantly reducing carbon dioxide emissions. However, the future growth of CCUS-EOR is uncertain due to the global economic recession and low oil prices. This research analyzes the impact of uncertain oil and carbon market prices on the economic value of a CCUS-EOR project which contributes to appropriate investment and future policy decisions. To explore the potential trade-offs between available carbon dioxide (CO2) quantities for trading or injection for enhanced oil recovery, the market's trading mechanism is analyzed by predicting future oil and carbon prices. The forecasted market prices are then used in an optimization model to estimate the optimal cumulative cash flow from implementing a proposed CCUS-EOR project to capture CO2 from the Hartha power plant located in the southern Basra Province of Iraq, considering three different oil fields of Rumaila, Nassriya, and Noor. The results revealed that the profitability of the proposed CCUS-EOR project is affected by both oil and carbon market prices, and a higher carbon price is needed to compensate for the financial setbacks, resulting from reduced oil prices. The research also features the strategic decision-making of oil fields across different sizes in response to various price scenarios. The medium-sized fields consistently prioritize carbon injection for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) over market trading. In contrast, small and giant fields adapt their approach based on the prevailing market price dynamics.

A new progressive and efficient production sharing Contract for upstream oil and gas industry

After the pandemic, the structure of the upstream petroleum business changed. Exploration and production (E&P) companies no longer base their investment decisions on the geological prospectivity of the offered blocks but rather on how the fiscal systems adopted by host governments behave under such uncontrolled and unexpected events. Many E&P companies couldn't survive during the pandemic. This is because many governments adopt regressive and front-end-loaded systems that are not designed to accommodate such periods of low oil prices. This research, therefore, presents a new methodology to design the main fiscal elements of production sharing contracts (PSCs). These elements are: royalty, cost recovery limit, production sharing, and income tax. The performance of the proposed PSC model under different oil prices, production rates, and development costs is investigated using deterministic sensitivity analysis. Our results showed that the proposed PSC model is a progressive and win-win fiscal system. The performance of the proposed PSC model is compared with Ghana's fiscal system and the new Nigeria's Petroleum Industry Act (PIA 2021) under a wide range of oil prices, production rates, development, and operating costs. The comparative study proved that the proposed PSC model enhances the survival and sustainability of E&P companies during periods of falling oil prices. The comparative study proved that, unlike the proposed PSC model, Ghana's fiscal system and PIA 2021 are regressive. Furthermore, the contracting parties are not in a win-win situation.

Global oil price and stock markets in oil exporting and European countries: Evidence during the Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war

The relationship between oil price movements and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic and the geopolitical crisis like the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war is yet unexplored extensively. This study therefore examines the return-correlation effects of oil prices on stock markets and their spillover effects in oil-exporting and European countries using daily closing data. After estimating the GARCH process, we employ the static and dynamic Markov Switching model that allow the relationship between oil price and stock market to switch between two regimes coined the COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war periods. The static model shows stock price returns to respond positively and significantly to oil price returns in Italy, Germany and the US during the Covid-19 period while the response is significantly positive only for US in the Russia-Ukraine war period. As regards the volatility spillover, significant spillover is found from stock to oil market for Nigeria, vice versa for Saudi Arabia and bi-directional volatility spillover found for the US, Italy and Germany during the COVID-19 period. The policy implication is that Nigeria and Saudi Arabia should prioritize financial policy and energy policy respectively while US, Italy and Germany should adopt policy coordination to stabilize oil-stock market volatility during low oil price period like the COVID-19 period.

Financial Literacy and Retirement Readiness for Oil and Gas Indonesian Expatriates in Qatar

Expatriates are individuals who reside outside their country of origin. Their occupation is characterized as high-density, intricate, and more demanding than domestic work (Shin, 2007). In Qatar, expatriates have been employed in the oil and gas industry since 1940. However, in December 2015, Qatar Petroleum, like numerous other organizations in the oil and gas sector, encountered challenges during the period of 2015-2016 due to a sharp decline in global oil prices. The decline in oil prices during this period was primarily driven by a combination of factors, including oversupply in the global oil market, reduced demand, and geopolitical factors. These circumstances exerted significant financial pressure on many oil and gas companies worldwide, including Qatar Petroleum. To alleviate the financial impact of plummeting oil prices, many oil and gas companies had to implement cost-cutting measures, frequently involving layoffs and workforce reductions. These measures were taken to decrease operating expenses and maintain financial stability during low oil prices. In addition to this, Qatar 2008 introduced Vision 2030, which serves as a comprehensive and long-term development plan for the nation. This plan outlines Qatar's objectives and aspirations across various sectors, including economic, social, environmental, and cultural development, with a particular emphasis on sustainability and economic diversification. The leadership of Qatar presented this vision as a strategic roadmap for the country's progress over the next few decades, leading up to the year 2030. Considering these two initiatives, it is imperative for all expatriates, particularly Indonesian expatriates, to prepare for early retirement. According to the database of the Ikatan Ahli Teknik Perminyakan Indonesia (IATMI) commissariat in Qatar, there are currently over 1653 Indonesian expatriates employed in the oil industry. Research findings indicate that the financial literacy of expatriates, which refers to their knowledge, skills, and beliefs influencing decision-making and financial management to achieve prosperity, is relatively low at 46%. Furthermore, there is a weak correlation between financial literacy and preparedness for early retirement

Route Optimization of Grain Fleet Considering Bunker Cost

To minimize grain fleet operational costs, we employ a route optimization approach that considers bunker costs. A mixed-integer programming model is created, factoring in the unique features of bulk grain shipping and varying oil prices at bunker ports. The goal is to optimize the fleet’s transportation route, with decision variables encompassing bunker port selection, bunker volume, and ship navigation path. Using a dry bulk cargo company’s grain transport fleet as a case study, the Gurobi solver validates the model’s effectiveness. Results reveal that, excluding the loading port, the grain fleet can select low oil price ports along the route for bunkering. Optimal cost reduction is achieved by choosing multiple bunker ports and increasing bunker quantity. Additionally, the model harmonizes port charges with bunker costs, refining the grain fleet’s transportation route and effectively managing operational expenses.

Modelling the Impact of Crude Oil Prices and Stock Price Index on Indonesia’s Exchange Rates

Abstract This paper employs various GARCH-type models and the daily data from 3 July 2006 to 30 June 2021 to examine the effect of crude oil prices and stock price index on exchange rates for Indonesia, the largest oil producer in Southeast Asia. Since the share markets and oil prices are very volatile, testing the stability of the parameters or system is desirable. We achieve this by using the Nyblom’s fluctuations test and account for the structural break associated with the fluctuations. Findings reveal that lower oil price return leads the Indonesian currency per US dollar to depreciate. In addition, we find that stock return has negative and significant relation with exchange rates. This lends support to the portfolio balance effect in which a decrease in stock prices leads to a depreciation of Indonesian Rupiah against the US dollar. Evidence from EGARCH model shows that shocks to the volatility of exchange rate have a symmetrical effect. Our results suggest that as lower oil prices and stock prices contributes to depreciation of Indonesia rupiah against USD, an appropriate monetary policy may require adjustment of interest rates to resist the exchange rate fluctuations without being detrimental to the banking system.

The effect of crude oil price changes on civil conflict intensity in rentier states

While existing literature has considered the relationship between oil and conflict, most of the studies have failed to consider mechanisms that might mediate the effect of the fluctuating market price of oil on conflict. We theorize that the military capacity of the state is a key mediating mechanism for understanding the relationship between shifting oil market prices and conflict intensity. We argue that states which rely upon oil sales to fund a large portion of government spending will have a more difficult time maintaining conflict-reducing state capacity during times in which oil prices are below previously prevailing averages for extended lengths of time. Using country-year data in 67 conflict states from 1989–2019, we find that low average oil prices are associated with lower military spending which in turn is associated with higher rates of battle fatalities in existing civil conflicts.

Technology Focus: Offshore Drilling and Completion (October 2023)

Optimizing and continually increasing efficiencies at every stage of the drilling and completion process are central themes in the papers showcased in this feature. Innovating our way through difficult times is what the oil and gas industry excels at, especially during challenging periods. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the offshore energy industry faced immense struggles with high upfront capital investment and long lead times in uncertain circumstances with extremely low oil prices. The challenges brought about by the pandemic served as a backdrop to many of these innovations. Companies were compelled to discover creative solutions to maintain efficiency, reduce costs, and ensure safety during an era of unprecedented disruption. Innovation in advanced analytics and machine-learning algorithms is used to optimize drilling-center locations, leading to cost reduction. This development became even more critical during the pandemic as companies aimed to maximize efficiency and minimize expenses. The execution of large-scale projects such as the Johan Sverdrup development highlights innovation in project management, enabling timely and cost-effective operations in a challenging environment. The emphasis on digital solutions and fiber-optic technology in Guyana’s offshore operations illustrates the industry’s adaptation to the pandemic by enabling remote operations and real-time data collection while maintaining efficiency in a new discovery. Innovations in riserless light well intervention systems are particularly relevant during the pandemic. These systems improved efficiency and safety for offshore interventions, enabling the industry to operate with minimal personnel onboard. The focus on well-planning strategies to overcome challenges in deep depleted reservoirs includes approaches that optimize drilling in complex conditions, which is crucial when efficiency is paramount. Retrofitting autonomous inflow control devices proved an effective approach in implementing state-of-the-art technology to improve reservoir sweep and productivity. Moving forward, this innovative spirit in our industry as seen in these papers is a testament to our resilience during challenging times. In the coming years, this ability to sustainably increase recovery efficiencies to ensure energy security is crucial to shaping the future of energy production. Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. SPE 212499 4D Radar Imaging of Wellbore Geometry While Drilling by Lars Øy, Well ID, et al. OTC 30979 Guyana Operations and First Oil by Mike F. Ryan, ExxonMobil, et al. SPE 212915 Enhancing Riserless Light Well Intervention Operability From Operator Perspective by Michael Long Ge, BP, et al. SPE 214057 Challenges of Drilling Deep Wells in a Complex Overburden With Severe Depletion and Experiences From Caspian Sea by Anwar Juma Al Saadi, Dragon Oil, et al.

Improving Russia’s Tax Policy in the Oil Production Taxation Field amid the World Economic Development

The paper reviews pressing issues related to the corporate taxation in the oil industry amid the financial crisis, sanctions imposed against Russia, and low oil prices. Special attention is paid to the analysis of the first results of the tax reform, to the introduction of a profit-based tax. The purpose of the study is to find an effective tax mechanism for the taxation of the oil industry. The subject of the study is the current issues of oil taxation, in particular, the application of the taxation mechanism of the financial results of oil companies and the reform of the taxation system of export duties to the oil refining industry.

Status, disadvantages, and prospects of oil shale in China: An economic perspective

Oil shale, regarded as a significant future energy source, is attracting increasing attention due to rising oil prices. To explore its potential, this study first examines the current status of oil shale and discusses the major challenges faced in China, including adverse resource quality, technology bottlenecks, fluctuating oil prices, and unclear policy orientation. Subsequently, an economic perspective is provided through a comprehensive financial analysis that integrates these factors. To address the lack of key economic data, a novel approach named the Geological and Technological Factor-based Interval Classification Method is introduced, enabling the estimation of the economic data of 78 oil shale areas nationwide for the first time. The results show that oil price is the most significant influencing factor, followed by technological progress. Accordingly, with high oil prices and technological progress, 90.26% of total resources are profitable. However, despite exhibiting excellent prospects, it depends on oil prices and technological progress. Under low oil prices without technological advancement, the percentage sharply drops to 0.53%, indicating high uncertainties and risks. Fortunately, uncertainties and risks can be effectively mitigated through appropriate support policies, which would offer financial support and optimistic market expectations, attracting investment and promoting technological progress.

Does price of oil and inflation have an impact on the GDP of Africa's largest net oil importers? Evidence from a non‐linear heterogeneous panel ARDL

AbstractThe article explores the non‐linear relationship between oil prices, inflation, and GDP in eight African countries that import oil from other nations. The study uses various econometric techniques, including symmetric and asymmetric dynamic panel ARDL models, mean group, and pooled mean group approaches, to examine quarterly data from 1983 Q2 to 2020 Q4. The analysis looks at both short‐term and long‐term variations to measure the positive and negative effects of oil prices and inflation on GDP. The findings reveal that the variables are related, but there are significant non‐linearities in the long run. While both rising oil prices and inflation have a positive impact on GDP in most instances, lower oil prices and inflation might have a neutral or negative impact.

Macroeconomic determinants of stock market returns: Evidence from Oman

This paper aims to analyze the long- and short-term effects of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns in the Sultanate of Oman, particularly the effects of inflation (CPI), interest rates (IR), foreign exchange reserve (FER), money supply (M2), per capita gross domestic product (GDP), trading balance (TB), and oil prices (OP) on the returns of the main index of the Muscat Stock Exchange (MSX30). Additionally, the paper aims to examine whether the effects changed after the low oil price crisis at the end of 2014. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was employed to analyze quarterly data for the full sample period (2009 Q2–2022 Q4), and for the oil price crisis period (2014 Q4–2022 Q4). The findings indicate that FER and per capita GDP had positive long-term effects on the returns of the MSX30, while M2 had a negative effect. It was also found that FER and OP had a negative effect in the short run, and the short-term impact of IR and TB were positive. Moreover, the findings during the oil price crisis indicate that the M2 continued to have a negative long-term impact, while in the short run, FER had a positive impact and TB had a negative impact.

Hurdles Will Keep Deepwater Rig Fleet Size in Check

It has been a tumultuous few years for offshore rig contractors operating in deep water across the globe. Over the past half decade, deepwater specialists Valaris, Diamond Offshore, Noble Corp., and Seadrill have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, due in large part to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic that effectively shut down the market from 2020 until 2022. A few years before that, Ocean Rig filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy after lower oil prices prompted a series of contract cancellations for its drillship-heavy fleet, while rival Pacific Drilling suffered a similar fate that same year. Post-pandemic, Transocean now owns the Ocean Rig fleet, Noble scooped up Pacific, and oil prices have risen and stabilized to the point that demand for deepwater rigs has been climbing. It’s a refreshing shift after 36 months of cold stacking, selling, or flat-out retiring assets from the marketed fleet. Forty-nine floating units—37 semisubmersibles and 12 drillships, according to Westwood Global Energy Group—were expunged from the global floating rig fleet during the pandemic years. Most of these units were older and not likely to return to drilling service after any significant length on the sidelines. Units that weren’t retired or sold were idled to wait out the depressed market. Companies like Valaris are taking the renewed demand in deepwater rigs, especially drillships, and parlaying that into opportunities to reactivate and upgrade cold-stacked rigs. Earlier this year, drillship Valaris DS-17 departed the shipyard ahead of its contract with Equinor Offshore Brazil. It marked the company’s fifth floater reactivation in the past 18 months. Valaris DS-17 is one of the highest-specification drillships in the global fleet today and will be the first rig to deploy NOV’s Atom RTX Robotic System Offshore, reducing the need for personnel in the red zone. It also became only the second rig in the world after Valaris DS-12 to receive ABS’ Enhanced Electrical System Notation, EHS-E. The rig’s electrical system is designed to optimize power plant performance, enabling operations on fewer generators and reducing emissions. These targeted upgrades help to improve the safety and efficiency of the rig. “Active utilization for sixth- and seventh-generation drillships has, on average, exceeded 90% for more than 12 months,” Valaris Chief Executive Anton Dibowitz told investors in August. “Looking at forward demand, we expect leading-edge day rates to continue on an upward trajectory from the current levels in the mid- to high-400s ($400,000). Recent fixtures and tenders with increased durations, lead times. and day rates provide further evidence that we are in a strong and sustainable up cycle.” At the end of July, Valaris was able to secure a new contract that would result in another reactivation. The driller was awarded a 12-well contract offshore West Africa for cold-stacked drillship Valaris DS-7. The contract is expected to begin in the second quarter 2024 and has an estimated duration of 850 days. The total contract value is estimated to be $364 million, or a day rate just over $428,000. The contract requires minimal customer-specific upgrades to the rig and does not include the provision of any additional services. The number of drillships that can be reactivated is finite with around a dozen or so remaining following this latest fixture. A further eight newbuild drillships remain in South Korean shipyards, including the Valaris DS-13 and DS-14. However, Valaris plans to exercise its purchase options on these drillships.

Investor compensation for oil and gas phase out decisions: aligning valuation methods to decarbonization

ABSTRACT Decisions by states to cancel oil and gas licenses in the transition to net-zero emissions can trigger investment arbitration claims. Given the massive damages that arbitration tribunals can award to investors, investment arbitration is increasingly being criticized as an obstacle to climate change mitigation and the just energy transition. Under the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method, tribunals have based their valuation on the expected production volumes during the remaining lifetime of oilfields and forecasts of international oil prices, essentially requiring states to compensate companies at market conditions for all energy left underground. With an increasing number of carbon neutrality pledges at the global level and states’ due diligence obligation to reduce emissions, this article argues that tribunals can no longer ignore decarbonization considerations in the application of the DCF method. Damages decisions must instead account for the price, production cost and risk expectations under net-zero pathways. Significant downward adjustments to the estimated future income of hydrocarbon assets can be achieved by using the lower oil price forecasts in net-zero emissions scenarios, instead of current market conditions. Adjusting future cash flow projections and the discount rate to reflect carbon pricing and other climate policy risks can significantly lower the present value of hydrocarbon assets. As arbitration tribunals have so far ignored decarbonization in their oil damages calculations, legal reforms are needed to require the alignment of investor compensation to decarbonization and ensure a just energy transition.

Comments: Nuclear Energy Gains (Some) Favor

Support for nuclear energy in the US is at its highest level in a decade, with 55% of Americans supporting it as a source of electricity. A Gallup poll conducted in March found 25% strongly favor, 30% somewhat favor, while 22% each strongly or somewhat oppose its usage. The report noted that oil prices have generally affected Americans’ responses since the survey was begun in 1994: high oil prices trended with more openness to nuclear energy, low oil prices trended with less favor. As of May, there were 436 nuclear power reactors in operation (connected to the grid) worldwide, providing about 10% of the world’s electricity. The countries with the most reactors are the US (93), France (56), and China (55). The largest reactors under construction were in the UK (gross electricity generation capacity of 1,720 MW). The largest-capacity nuclear reactors under construction worldwide were in China, with a total capacity of almost 22 GW (Statistica, May 2023). Projections for the potential growth of nuclear power in the next decades increased for the second consecutive year in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s 2022 outlook to 2050. Its high case scenario forecast for world nuclear generating capacity more than doubled to 873 GW net electrical (GWe) by 2050, compared with current levels of around 390 GWe, an increase of 81 GWe forecast in 2021. In the low case scenario, generating capacity remains flat. “We are at a defining moment in the world’s transition to a more secure, stable, and affordable energy future,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said. “Driven by the impacts of climate change and the energy crisis, governments are reconsidering their portfolios in favor of nuclear power. But for the high case scenario to be achieved, a number of challenges need to be addressed, including regulatory and industrial harmonization and progress in high-level waste disposal.” The IAEA said the use of nuclear power has avoided about 70 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions over the past 50 years. Almost half of the CO2 emission reductions needed to reach net zero in 2050 will need to come from technologies that are currently under development but are not yet on the market. IAEA said accelerating the pace of innovation and demonstration of advanced nuclear reactors including small modular reactors (SMRs) is required if nuclear is to play a role in decarbonization beyond electricity by providing low-carbon heat or hydrogen to the industrial and transport sectors. Although the Biden administration has included nuclear energy as a key component in its clean energy plan, support for nuclear energy has historically been tenuous. In the evaluation of the risks vs. benefits of nuclear energy, the risks weigh heavily in the balance, partly because when nuclear power reactors failed, they failed dramatically. Fukushima, Chernobyl, Three Mile Island. While estimates of the number of directly related deaths or subsequent deaths resulting from radiation exposure via the accident or fallout are debated and vary widely, the association of fatalities with nuclear power reactor accidents/disasters is an immediately identified risk. Concerns about the risk of weapons proliferation, core meltdowns, and disposal of spent radioactive fuel are real and will need to be addressed transparently and convincingly by governments and regulators to gain wider public approval worldwide. Increasing nuclear generating capacity is not a quick fix. The complexity of the massive project, scale of investment, and long lead times are additional drawbacks. For comparison, a “typical” nuclear power plant requires 5 years (or more) to construct; natural gas-fired plants are frequently built in about 2 years. The United Nations (UN) estimates that the world’s population will grow from 7.8 billion in 2020 to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion by 2050. Urbanization, which currently adds a city the size of Shanghai to the world’s urban population about every 4 months, is expected to result in approximately two-thirds of the world’s people living in urban areas by 2050 (up from about 55% now). The number of people without access to electricity has fallen substantially and is now below 1 billion, according to the UN. However, 733 million people, just over 9% of the world’s population, live without access. The challenge of meeting the rapidly growing energy demand, while reducing emissions, is considerable and highlights the needs for an energy mix which includes hydrocarbon, renewable, nuclear, and emerging and developing energy sources such as hydrogen.