Hurdles Will Keep Deepwater Rig Fleet Size in Check

Abstract

It has been a tumultuous few years for offshore rig contractors operating in deep water across the globe. Over the past half decade, deepwater specialists Valaris, Diamond Offshore, Noble Corp., and Seadrill have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, due in large part to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic that effectively shut down the market from 2020 until 2022. A few years before that, Ocean Rig filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy after lower oil prices prompted a series of contract cancellations for its drillship-heavy fleet, while rival Pacific Drilling suffered a similar fate that same year. Post-pandemic, Transocean now owns the Ocean Rig fleet, Noble scooped up Pacific, and oil prices have risen and stabilized to the point that demand for deepwater rigs has been climbing. It’s a refreshing shift after 36 months of cold stacking, selling, or flat-out retiring assets from the marketed fleet. Forty-nine floating units—37 semisubmersibles and 12 drillships, according to Westwood Global Energy Group—were expunged from the global floating rig fleet during the pandemic years. Most of these units were older and not likely to return to drilling service after any significant length on the sidelines. Units that weren’t retired or sold were idled to wait out the depressed market. Companies like Valaris are taking the renewed demand in deepwater rigs, especially drillships, and parlaying that into opportunities to reactivate and upgrade cold-stacked rigs. Earlier this year, drillship Valaris DS-17 departed the shipyard ahead of its contract with Equinor Offshore Brazil. It marked the company’s fifth floater reactivation in the past 18 months. Valaris DS-17 is one of the highest-specification drillships in the global fleet today and will be the first rig to deploy NOV’s Atom RTX Robotic System Offshore, reducing the need for personnel in the red zone. It also became only the second rig in the world after Valaris DS-12 to receive ABS’ Enhanced Electrical System Notation, EHS-E. The rig’s electrical system is designed to optimize power plant performance, enabling operations on fewer generators and reducing emissions. These targeted upgrades help to improve the safety and efficiency of the rig. “Active utilization for sixth- and seventh-generation drillships has, on average, exceeded 90% for more than 12 months,” Valaris Chief Executive Anton Dibowitz told investors in August. “Looking at forward demand, we expect leading-edge day rates to continue on an upward trajectory from the current levels in the mid- to high-400s ($400,000). Recent fixtures and tenders with increased durations, lead times. and day rates provide further evidence that we are in a strong and sustainable up cycle.” At the end of July, Valaris was able to secure a new contract that would result in another reactivation. The driller was awarded a 12-well contract offshore West Africa for cold-stacked drillship Valaris DS-7. The contract is expected to begin in the second quarter 2024 and has an estimated duration of 850 days. The total contract value is estimated to be $364 million, or a day rate just over $428,000. The contract requires minimal customer-specific upgrades to the rig and does not include the provision of any additional services. The number of drillships that can be reactivated is finite with around a dozen or so remaining following this latest fixture. A further eight newbuild drillships remain in South Korean shipyards, including the Valaris DS-13 and DS-14. However, Valaris plans to exercise its purchase options on these drillships.