Status, disadvantages, and prospects of oil shale in China: An economic perspective

Abstract

Oil shale, regarded as a significant future energy source, is attracting increasing attention due to rising oil prices. To explore its potential, this study first examines the current status of oil shale and discusses the major challenges faced in China, including adverse resource quality, technology bottlenecks, fluctuating oil prices, and unclear policy orientation. Subsequently, an economic perspective is provided through a comprehensive financial analysis that integrates these factors. To address the lack of key economic data, a novel approach named the Geological and Technological Factor-based Interval Classification Method is introduced, enabling the estimation of the economic data of 78 oil shale areas nationwide for the first time. The results show that oil price is the most significant influencing factor, followed by technological progress. Accordingly, with high oil prices and technological progress, 90.26% of total resources are profitable. However, despite exhibiting excellent prospects, it depends on oil prices and technological progress. Under low oil prices without technological advancement, the percentage sharply drops to 0.53%, indicating high uncertainties and risks. Fortunately, uncertainties and risks can be effectively mitigated through appropriate support policies, which would offer financial support and optimistic market expectations, attracting investment and promoting technological progress.