Anomalous Low-level Anticyclone Research Articles

The joint effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation on tropical Indian Ocean heat flux during boreal winter

In this study, the joint effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on winter net surface heat flux (Qnet) anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) are investigated for the 1979/1980–2017/2018 period. The results show that, in multisource datasets, the Qnet pattern for El Niño plus positive AO cases is the most robust. The major feature of Qnet is dominated by a significant dipole pattern, with oceanic heat gain anomalies appearing over the southeastern TIO and oceanic heat loss near the western TIO. Analysis of the flux components shows that the Qnet anomalies are mainly contributed by changes in latent heat flux and shortwave radiation (QLHF and QSWR), which are tightly associated with the regional atmospheric and oceanic conditions. In association with positive AO, northerly wind anomalies on the eastern flanks of a low-level anomalous anticyclone in the Arabian Sea enhance the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the western TIO. Meanwhile, the El Niño-related SST warming occurs in the western TIO. Both enhanced ITCZ and anomalous SST warming favour in situ increased low and middle cloud cover and a reduced QSWR. Furthermore, under El Niño's effect, a low-level anomalous anticyclone located in the southeastern TIO leads to a positive QLHF through decreased near-surface wind speed and increased near-surface air humidity. As a result, a dipole Qnet pattern tends to be observed for the combination of El Niño and positive AO.

Future changes in South Asian summer monsoon circulation under global warming: role of the Tibetan Plateau latent heating

The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is a significant monsoon system that exerts a profound impact on climate and human livelihoods. According to 38 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, the SASM circulation is projected to weaken significantly under global warming as seen in the weakened low-level westerly wind over the northern tropical Indian Ocean; however, the associated climate dynamics is still under debate. Here, we identify that the weakened low-level westerly wind is closely related to the enhanced latent heating over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which corresponds with increased summer precipitation in the future. The intensified TP latent heating triggers an anomalous meridional circulation with ascending motions over the plateau and descending motions to the south, leading to an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the northern tropical Indian Ocean. This anticyclone greatly weakens the prevailing low-level westerlies of the SASM through easterly anomalies at the anticyclone’s southern flank. Moisture budget analysis further reveals that increased atmospheric water vapor, rather than the vertical dynamic component, makes the largest contribution to the increased precipitation over the TP. This result confirms that the enhanced TP latent heating is a driver of atmospheric circulation change and contributes to weakening the SASM circulation.

Comparison of two filter approaches for characterizing boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

Two commonly used filter approaches for boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) are investigated with the observations during 1979–2021. One is the real-time BSISO index and the other is based on 20–80-day Lanczos bandpass filter. Both two filter approaches are able to isolate spatial structure and life cycle of BSISO realistically in the Indo-NWP region. But the BSISO phase pattern match does not guarantee consistent propagation characteristics and phase occurrence frequency. The real-time monitoring methods such as real-time BSISO index does not use future information beyond the current date, so it is influenced by seasonal mean anomalies induced by El Niño on the interannual timescale over the Indo-NWP region. During post-El Niño summers, the real-time BSISO index shows a weaker northward propagation than bandpass filter approach. Phases 2–4 of BSISO show relatively higher occurrence frequency than other phases during post-El Niño summers in real-time BSISO index, resulting in the seasonal mean of active eight BSISO phases largely resembling the El Niño induced mean state anomaly pattern with depressed convection and low-level anomalous anticyclone in the tropical northwest Pacific region. Bandpass filter approach exhibits a more uniform phase occurrence frequency for both normal and post-El Niño summers, which is consistent with the random nature of BSISO as one of atmospheric internal variability. Bandpass filter approach is recommended for studies of BSISO northward propagation and its relationship with low-frequency variability such as ENSO.

Decadal changes in rapid intensification of western North Pacific tropical cyclones modulated by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation

This study investigates the modulation of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) on decadal timescales. There is a significant inverse relationship between basinwide RI numbers during July–November and the simultaneous NPGO index from 1970 to 2021. During the positive NPGO phase, suppressed RI occurs over almost the entire WNP, with a distinctly different spatial distribution compared to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation-driven pattern of RI modulation. RI occurrence is significantly reduced over the eastern Philippine Sea (10°–25°N, 140°–155°E). This is primarily caused by enhanced negative low-level vorticity, which can be linked to the horizontal extent of the anomalous low-level anticyclone. By comparison, over the western Philippine Sea (10°–25°N, 125°–140°E), there are only weak RI occurrence changes due to offsetting influences of increased mid-level humidity and decreased low-level vorticity.

Relationship between the South Asian High and Western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis

This study highlights a significant inter-decadal modulation of the South Asian high (SAH) on the meridional distribution of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF). There is an obvious inter-decadal change in the first leading SAH mode, with an abrupt weakening since the early 1990s. During 1979–1993, when there was a stronger SAH, TCs were suppressed over the northern WNP and enhanced over the southern WNP in response to inter-annual SAH changes. The northern WNP TCGF had a significant negative correlation with the SAH (r = −0.69), while the southern WNP TCGF had a significant positive correlation with the SAH (r = 0.78). This north-south seesaw pattern driven by the SAH weakened during 1994–2019.This inter-decadal modulation of the inter-annual SAH-WNP TC genesis relationship can be explained by changes in large-scale environmental parameters. There is anomalous ascending (descending) motion and negative (positive) vorticity centered at 850-hPa as well as less (more) moisture at 600-hPa in the northern WNP (southern WNP) during 1979–1993. The maintenance of a strong low-level anomalous anticyclone accompanied by the concurrent influence of the SAH and East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream decreases northern WNP TCGF. Linking to an El Niño-like SST pattern, the cyclonic circulation forced by a Gill-type forcing and enhanced by equatorial low-level westerly anomalies increases southern WNP TCGF. In contrast, we find a relatively weak inter-annual relationship of large-scale factors to the SAH since 1994. This weakening relationship is largely due to the inter-decadal weakening of the SAH and East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream. Inter-decadal changes of the East Asian summer monsoon and the phase shift of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation appear to be two important factors modulating the inter-annual relationship between the SAH and the meridional distribution of WNP TCGF.

Enhanced Predictability of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific Associated with Snow Depth Changes over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract This study finds an enhanced relationship in recent years between January–March eastern Tibetan Plateau snow depth (TPSD) and the frequency of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones (RITCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the following peak TC season (July–November). The correlation between TPSD and RITCs is significant during 2000–14 but was insignificant during 1979–99. During 2000–14, when TPSD increases, there is an enhanced low-level anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical eastern North Pacific mainly due to the combined effect of advection and dynamics of the climatological prevailing westerly jet. Northeasterly wind anomalies are observed on the flank of the anticyclonic circulation anomaly, favoring anomalously cool sea surface temperature (SST). These anomalies lead to an anomalous pattern similar to the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), via a wind–evaporation feedback and cold advection. A Gill-type Rossby response to the PMM-like negative phase results in an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the WNP, suppressing RITCs during 2000–14. A nearly opposite circulation anomaly occurred when TPSD was lower during 2000–14. There is a weak relationship between TPSD and RITCs, due to the lack of a link between TPSD and the PMM-like pattern from 1979 to 1999. Decadal changes in the relationship between TPSD and RITCs are mainly due to the meridional displacement of the prevailing westerly jet, which may be in response to decadal-to-multidecadal variability of SST anomalies. These changes then result in changes in the relationship between January–March TPSD and the PMM-like pattern. Significance Statement Forecasts of tropical cyclone rapid intensification, typically defined to be when a tropical cyclone intensifies by at least 30 knots (∼15 m s−1) in 24 h, remain extremely challenging. This study finds an enhanced relationship since the start of the twenty-first century between winter–spring Tibetan Plateau snow depth and western North Pacific rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones, while the relationship between snow depth and rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones was weak from 1979 to 1999. Decadal changes in the relationship between Tibetan Plateau snow depth and western North Pacific rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones is mainly due to the north–south displacement of the prevailing westerly jet, which may be in response to a transition in a midlatitude North Pacific climate mode. This study highlights the importance of the synergetic impact of the land, air, and sea on tropical cyclone climate and provides a potential predictor for seasonal-to-decadal prediction of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones.

Tropical Cyclone Activities Over the Western North Pacific in Summer 2020: Transition From Silence in July to Unusually Active in August

In the summer of 2020, tropical cyclone (TC) activities experienced a contrastive transition over the western North Pacific (WNP), from silence in July to unusually active in August. Furthermore, the generation location of TCs was further northwestward in August 2020, resulting in more typhoons landing, and three TCs successively moving northward, which is rare in history. Based on diagnoses with the total genesis potential index (GPI) in July and August 2020, it is suggested that the variation of mid-tropospheric relative humidity and upward convective motion is the major factor for the transition of TC genesis in summer 2020, while the changes of SST, low-level vorticity, and vertical wind shear anomalies played a secondary role. The exceptional variation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity from July to August 2020 contributed to the transition of the environmental conditions over WNP. In July 2020, MJO was restricted in the Indian Ocean, thus generating an anomalous low-level anticyclone over WNP that intensified the WNP subtropical high. While in early August, MJO propagated eastward to enhance convective activities over the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea, favorable to TC genesis. Thus, MJO activity is a potential predictability source for intraseasonal variation of TC genesis anomalies in WNP.

Oceanic drivers and empirical prediction of interannual rainfall variability in late summer over Northeast China

Northeast China (NEC) is located between the subtropical monsoon and temperate-frigid monsoon regions and exhibits two successive rainy seasons with different natures: the northeast cold vortex rainy season in early summer (May–June) and the monsoon rainy season in late summer (July–August). Summer rainfall over NEC (NECR) has a fundamental influence on society, yet its successful seasonal prediction remains a long-term scientific challenge to current dynamical models. The poor NECR prediction skill is partly attributed to the large NECR variability at both the interannual and interdecadal time scales. Here, we focus on the oceanic drivers of the late summer NECR variability and associated physical processes at interannual time scale. Then, we establish an empirical prediction model to predict the interannual variability of summer NECR at 1-month lead time (in June). The analysis of observations spanning 40 years (1963–2002) reveals three physically and synergistically influencing predictors of the late summer NECR interannual variability. Above-normal NECR is preceded in the previous spring by (a) warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical northern Indian Ocean, (b) a positive thermal contrast tendency in the tropical West–East Pacific SST, and (c) a positive tendency of the North Atlantic tripolar SST. These precursors enhance the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific and southerly anomalies over NEC in late summer, which are beneficial to enhancing NECR. An empirical prediction model built on these three predictors achieves a forecast temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill of 0.72 for 1961–2019, and a 17-year (2003–2019) independent forecast shows a significant TCC skill of 0.70. The skill is substantially higher than that of five state-of-the-art dynamical models and their ensemble mean for 1979–2019 (TCC = 0.24). These results suggest that the proposed empirical model is a meaningful approach for the prediction of NECR, although the dynamical prediction of NECR has considerable room for improvement.

Strengthening influence of El Niño on the following spring precipitation over the Indo-China Peninsula

AbstractEl Niño is a dominant source of interannual climate variability around the world. Based on the observed and reanalyzed datasets for the period of 1958-2019, this study explores the influence of El Niño on the spring precipitation over the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP). The results show that El Niño has a significant negative correlation with the following spring precipitation over the ICP. However, this climatic teleconnection of El Niño was unstable, with an obvious interdecadal strengthening since the early 1990s. During the decaying spring, the El Niño-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies would induce an abnormal downward motion along with an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific. Before the early 1990s, such El Niño-induced atmospheric circulation anomalies were located to the east of the ICP, exerting little influence on the spring ICP precipitation. In contrast, since the early 1990s, the abnormal downward motion and anomalous low-level anticyclone extended westwards covering the whole ICP, hampering local spring precipitation. This interdecadal change is owing to a relatively stronger intensity and longer duration of the El Niño-related warm SST anomalies over the tropical central Pacific in the epoch after the early 1990s (1992-2019) than in the previous decades (1958-1991). Our findings highlight a strengthening effect of El Niño on the following spring climate over the ICP since the early 1990s, which has great implications for the regional climate prediction.

Inter-annual variability of spring precipitation over the Indo-China Peninsula and its asymmetric relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Previous studies suggested that the dry–wet surface state over the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP), closely associated with the local spring precipitation, is an important seasonal predictor for the East Asian summer monsoon and extreme climate. Hence, this work investigates the inter-annual variability of spring precipitation over the ICP and its relationship with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during 1958–2019. The results show that the spring precipitation anomalies over the ICP are highly linked to the ENSO-induced atmospheric circulation anomalies. In particular, there are large asymmetries in the precipitation anomalies for the spring following ENSO. During the decaying spring of the El Nino events, the precipitation decrease mainly occurs over the Western ICP associated with an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific. In contrast, during the decaying spring of the La Nina events, a stronger precipitation increase broadly extends into the Southeastern ICP. This is owing to a nonlinear effect of ENSO on the atmospheric circulation. Compared to El Nino, the abnormal center of La Nina extends too far westwards, inducing a westward movement of the anomalous atmospheric circulation, which results in a stronger effect on the spring ICP precipitation. Our findings emphasize the nonlinear responses of the spring ICP precipitation to ENSO. This has important implications for the seasonal climate prediction over the ICP, especially for the Southeastern ICP countries/regions.

The Interdecadal Reverse of the Relationship and Feedback Mechanism between Sea Surface Temperature and Evaporation over the Indian Ocean during Boreal Autumn

AbstractThe linkage between sea surface temperature (SST) and evaporation (EVP) plays an important role in air–sea interactions. In this study, the interaction mechanism of SST and EVP during boreal autumn was studied using correlation analysis, composite analysis, the EVP decomposition method, and singular value decomposition. The results showed that the correlation between SST and EVP in the Indian Ocean was reversed from positive to negative in the late 1990s. The significant positive SST–EVP relationship was attributed to the Indian Ocean basin mode forcing upon EVP during 1980–90. The decrease in wind speed–induced EVP and SST warming led to a significant negative SST–EVP relationship during 2005–15. Moreover, the negative SST–EVP correlation occurred when the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and subtropical Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD) exhibited inverse phases. The low-level moisture–EVP–SST feedback dominated the negative SST–EVP correlation in the negative IOD and positive SIOD (nIOD–pSIOD) pattern, whereas the wind–EVP–SST feedback played the leading role in the positive IOD and negative SIOD (pIOD–nSIOD) pattern. The EVP anomalies induced by the low-level anomalous anticyclone and cyclone were the main causes of the SST anomalies with inverse phases of the IOD and SIOD. The correlation between the SST and EVP reversal from positive to negative implies that the effect of the atmosphere on the ocean is as important as the external forcing of the ocean on the atmosphere.

The role of internal variability in multi-decadal trends of summer rainfall over East Asia–Northwest Pacific

The impacts of internal variability on East Asia–Northwest Pacific (EA–NWP) summer rainfall trends on the multidecadal time scale are invested based on three large ensemble simulations, which have ensemble member of 30, 40 and 100. In all the three simulations, the summer rainfall trends during 1970–2005 are remarkably diverse across the individual ensemble members over the EA–NWP, and the signal-to-noise ratio is lower than 1 over the EA–NWP, suggesting a strong impact of internal variability on EA–NWP summer rainfall trends at this interval. Moreover, we found that the diversity of EA–NWP summer rainfall trends across individual members has a similar leading spatial pattern in all the three ensembles, featuring reverse trends between in Mei-yu region and in the tropical NWP. The leading pattern is likely caused by a gradient between the sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and in the tropical western Pacific (WP). When there is a warming trend in the NIO and a cooling trend in the tropical WP, a low-level anomalous anticyclone strengthens over the subtropical NWP, causing a dipole rainfall trend over the EA–NWP. The impact of the east–west SST gradient pattern is confirmed by numerical experiments. Our findings highlight that the internally-generated gradient of NIO–WP SST trends is an important source of the uncertainty in EA–NWP summer rainfall decadal changes in simulations.

Representation of the boreal summer tropical Atlantic–western North Pacific teleconnection in AGCMs: comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6

Previous studies have revealed that warm (cold) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) can enhance (weaken) the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP) during boreal summer. This study assesses the ability of current atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to simulate such an NTA–WNP connection by using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project experiments from 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and 35 CMIP6 climate models. It is shown that both the CMIP5 and CMIP6 multimodel ensemble (MME) averages and the majority of the individual AGCMs can reasonably reproduce the observed pattern of the NTA-related anomalous anticyclone over the WNP during boreal summer. Overall, the performance of the CMIP6 AGCMs in representing the NTA–WNP connection is similar to that of the CMIP5 AGCMs, except that the former tends to have a smaller spread than the latter among models. Additionally, both the CMIP5 and CMIP6 MME averages as well as the individual models can reasonably represent the mechanism responsible for the boreal summer NTA–WNP connection, which involves a zonally westward-extending overturning circulation over the Pacific–Atlantic Oceans. Furthermore, the intensity of the NTA-related WNP anomalous anticyclone is positively correlated with that of the WNP local climatological convection activity for both the CMIP5 and CMIP6 AGCMs, implying that better representation of the WNP climatological convection activity may be crucial for improving the skill of AGCMs to simulate the boreal summer NTA–WNP connection. However, model bias in the simulation of climatological convection activity over the WNP remains large for the current CMIP6 AGCMs, although the bias is reduced over most of the tropical and subtropical Pacific–Atlantic regions compared to that for the CMIP5 AGCMs during boreal summer.

Madden–Julian Oscillation–Induced Suppression of Northeast Pacific Convection Increases U.S. Tornadogenesis

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on U.S. tornadogenesis using atmospheric reanalysis and model experiments. Our analysis shows that the impact of MJO on U.S. tornadogenesis is most significant in May–July and during MJO phases 3–4 and 5–6 (P3456). These MJO phases are characterized by anomalous ascending motion over the Maritime Continent (MC) and anomalous subsidence over the northeast Pacific (EP), generating anomalous diabatic heating and cooling, respectively. These in turn generate large-scale atmospheric conditions conducive to tornadogenesis in the United States, enhancing the North American low-level jet (NALLJ) and thus increasing the influx of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to the United States and increasing the low-level wind shear and convective available potential energy along its path. Conversely, during MJO phases 1–2 and 7–8, the opposite patterns of atmospheric anomalies appear over the United States producing unfavorable environments for U.S. tornadogenesis. We further investigate the underlying mechanism for MJO-induced atmospheric circulations conducive to U.S. tornadogenesis using a linear baroclinic model (LBM). The LBM is forced by diabatic heating over the MC and cooling over the EP, which characterizes the P3456 MJO phase. The model experiment reproduces an anomalous ridge over the southern United States and associated anomalous low-level anticyclone that enhances the NALLJ and increases tornadic environmental parameters. Additional sensitivity experiments prescribing the diabatic heating over the MC and diabatic cooling over the EP independently demonstrate that diabatic cooling over the EP is the main driver for producing regional atmospheric conditions favorable for U.S. tornadogenesis.

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in 2018: A Season of Extremes

The 2018 tropical cyclone (TC) season over the western North Pacific (WNP) underwent two extreme situations: 18 TCs observed during June–August (JJA) and ranked the second most active summer in the satellite era; only 5 TCs that occurred during September–October (SO), making it the most inactive period since the late 1970s. Here we attribute the two extreme situations based on observational analyses and numerical experiments. The extremely active TC activity and northward shift of TC genesis during JJA of 2018 can be attributed to the WNP anomalous low-level cyclone, which is due primarily to El Niño Modoki and secondarily to the positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM). Overall, the extremely inactive TC activity during SO of 2018 is due to the absence of TC formation over the South China Sea and Philippine Sea, which can be attributed to the in-situ anomalous low-level anticyclone associated with the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, although the positive PMM phase and El Niño Modoki still hold.

Added value of the regionally coupled model ROM in the East Asian summer monsoon modeling

The performance of the regional atmosphere-ocean coupled model ROM (REMO-OASIS-MPIOM) is compared with its atmospheric component REMO in simulating the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the time period 1980–2012 with the following results being obtained. (1) The REMO model in the standalone configuration with the prescribed sea surface conditions produces stronger low-level westerlies associated with the South Asian summer monsoon, an eastward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and a wetter lower troposphere, which jointly lead to moisture pathways characterized by stronger westerlies with convergence eastward to the western North Pacific (WNP). As a consequence, the simulated precipitation in REMO is stronger over the ocean and weaker over the East Asian continent than in the observational datasets. (2) Compared with the REMO results, lower sea surface temperatures (SSTs) feature the ROM simulation with enhanced air-sea exchanges from the intensified low-level winds over the subtropical WNP, generating an anomalous low-level anticyclone and hence improving simulations of the low-level westerlies and WPSH. With lower SSTs, ROM produces less evaporation over the ocean, inducing a drier lower troposphere. As a result, the precipitation simulated by ROM is improved over the East Asian continent but with dry biases over the WNP. (3) Both models perform fairly well for the upper level circulation. In general, compared with the standalone REMO model, ROM improves simulations of the circulation associated with the moisture transport in the lower- to mid-troposphere and reproduces the observed EASM characteristics, demonstrating the advantages of the regionally coupled model ROM in regions where air-sea interactions are highly relevant for the East Asian climate.

Impacts of Central Pacific El Niño on Southern China Spring Precipitation Controlled by its Longitudinal Position

ABSTRACT Here we investigate the response of boreal spring precipitation over southern China (SPSC) to central Pacific (CP) El Niño based on observational datasets. While there is enhanced precipitation over southern China during the decaying boreal spring of eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, so far no clear precipitation response has been detected during the same decaying stage for CP El Niño composites. Here we show that around half of the CP El Niño events coincide with enhanced SPSC (wet CP El Niño), while the other half are accompanied by reduced SPSC (dry CP El Niño). These two types of CP El Niño events bear dramatically different evolution features in their respective tropical sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns. Wet CP El Niño events are characterized by an SSTA longitudinal position confined to the tropical central-eastern Pacific. In contrast, dry CP El Niño events exhibit a clear westward propagation of SSTAs during their evolution, with maximum SSTAs located to the west of the date line after their mature phase. These different longitudinal positions of positive SSTAs during their decaying phase result in distinct meridional structures of the tropical Pacific convection anomalies as well as the ENSO combination mode (C-mode) response. An anomalous low-level anticyclone is evident over the western North Pacific during wet CP El Niño events during their decaying phase, while an anomalous cyclonic circulation is found for dry CP El Niño events. We emphasize that the impacts of CP El Niño on the SPSC depend crucially on the simultaneous zonal location of warm SSTAs in the tropical Pacific.

Remote forcing of the northern tropical Atlantic SST anomalies on the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone

This study uses both observations and numerical modeling experiments to investigate the lead-lag relationship and the associated physical mechanism of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA). The results show that the WNPAC from late spring to the middle of autumn has a significant in-phase relationship with the NTA SST anomalies up to two seasons ahead. This relationship reaches a peak when the NTA SST leads by approximately 1–2 months and is nearly independent of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation variability. Diagnosis based on observations and numerical experiments using the Community Atmospheric Model version 5.3 reveals that the NTA warming favors intensified local convection activity during the spring–autumn seasons, causing enhanced low-level convergence and upper-level divergence (i.e., ascending motion) over the NTA and opposite flow anomalies over the central tropical Pacific. The enhanced subsidence over the central tropical Pacific, in turn, triggers an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific. Moreover, the intensity of the anomalous local convection activity that is associated with the NTA SST is closely related to the seasonal migration of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). As the Atlantic ITCZ migrates northward, the NTA SST-induced local convection activity extends northward from a narrow band near the equator during early spring to nearly the entire NTA region during the middle of summer, leading to the strongest remote effect of the NTA SST anomalies on the WNPAC during late summer and early autumn.

Roles of tropical SST patterns during two types of ENSO in modulating wintertime rainfall over southern China

The impacts of the eastern-Pacific (EP) and central-Pacific (CP) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the southern China wintertime rainfall (SCWR) have been investigated. Results show that wintertime rainfall over most stations in southern China is enhanced (suppressed) during the EP (CP) El Nino, which are attributed to different atmospheric responses in the western North Pacific (WNP) and South China Sea (SCS) during two types of ENSO. When EP El Nino occurs, an anomalous low-level anticyclone is present over WNP/the Philippines region, resulting in stronger-than-normal southwesterlies over SCS. Such a wind branch acts to suppress East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and enhance moisture supply, implying surplus SCWR. During CP El Nino, however, anomalous sinking and low-level anticyclonic flow are found to cover a broad region in SCS. These circulation features are associated with moisture divergence over the northern part of SCS and suppressed SCWR. General circulation model experiments have also been conducted to study influence of various tropical sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on the EAWM atmospheric circulation. For EP El Nino, formation of anomalous low-level WNP anticyclone is jointly attributed to positive/negative SST anomalies (SSTA) over the central-to-eastern/ western equatorial Pacific. However, both positive and negative CP Nino-related-SSTA, located respectively over the central Pacific and WNP/SCS, offset each other and contribute a weak but broad-scale anticyclone centered at SCS. These results suggest that, besides the vital role of SST warming, SST cooling over SCS/WNP during two types of El Nino should be considered carefully for understanding the El Nino-EAWM relationship.

Predictability of two types of El Niño and their climate impacts in boreal spring to summer in coupled models

The predictability of the two El Nino types and their different impacts on the East Asian climate from boreal spring to summer have been studied, based on coupled general circulation models (CGCM) simulations from the APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME) hindcast experiments. It was found that both the spatial pattern and temporal persistence of canonical (eastern Pacific type) El Nino sea surface temperature (SST) are much better simulated than those for El Nino Modoki (central Pacific type). In particular, most models tend to have El Nino Modoki events that decay too quickly, in comparison to those observed. The ability of these models in distinguishing between the two types of ENSO has also been assessed. Based on the MME average, the two ENSO types become less and less differentiated in the model environment as the forecast leadtime increases. Regarding the climate impact of ENSO, in spring during canonical El Nino, coupled models can reasonably capture the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western north Pacific (WNP)/Philippine Sea area, as well as rainfall over coastal East Asia. However, most models have difficulties in predicting the springtime dry signal over Indochina to South China Sea (SCS) when El Nino Modoki occurs. This is related to the location of the simulated anomalous anticyclone in this region, which is displaced eastward over SCS relative to the observed. In boreal summer, coupled models still exhibit some skills in predicting the East Asian rainfall during canonical El Nino, but not for El Nino Modoki. Overall, models’ performance in spring to summer precipitation forecasts is dictated by their ability in capturing the low-level anticyclonic feature over the WNP/SCS area. The latter in turn is likely to be affected by the realism of the time mean monsoon circulation in models.