Low-income Regions Research Articles

Association between Gross National Income per capita and COVID-19 vaccination coverage: a global ecological study

BackgroundCoronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has claimed over six million lives and infected more than 650 million people globally. Public health agencies have deployed several strategies, including rolling out vaccination campaigns to curb the pandemic, yet a significant proportion of the global population has not received the COVID-19 vaccine. We assessed differences in COVID-19 vaccination coverage by Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of WHO members (i.e., countries, areas, and territories, n = 192) and by WHO member regions (n = 6).MethodsUsing an ecological study design, we analyzed publicly available data from the WHO website merged with the World Bank’s GNI per capita data. We included a total of 192 WHO members and six WHO regions in the analysis. We utilized negative binomial regression to assess the associations between the GNI per capita and COVID-19 vaccination coverage (cumulative number of persons fully vaccinated and/or received at least one dose of the vaccine per 100 population), and ANOVA test to assess the differences in vaccination coverage per WHO regions.ResultsLow GNI per capita WHO members had significantly lower full vaccination coverage (aRR 0.30, 95% CI 0.22—0.40) compared to high GNI per capita WHO members. These members were also 66% less likely to receive at least one dose of the vaccine (aRR 0.34, 0.26—0.44) relative to high GNI per capita WHO members. Africa region had a significantly lower fully vaccination coverage (aRR 0.71, 95% CI 0.36—0.54) and received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine (aRR 0.78, 95% CI 0.62—0.99) than Europe region. Conversely, the Western Pacific region had significantly higher fully vaccination coverage (aRR 1.40 95% CI 1.12—1.74) and received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccines (aRR 1.40 95% CI 1.14—1.73) relative to European region.ConclusionWHO members with low GNI per capita and the African region reported significantly lower COVID-19 vaccination coverage than those with high GNI per capita or other regions. Efforts to strengthen and promote COVID-19 vaccination in low-income WHO countries and African region should be scaled up.

The uneven impacts of climate change on China's labor productivity and economy

Climate change is considered to increase economic costs by worsening heat-related labor productivity loss. While extensive global and national research has been conducted on this topic, few studies have analyzed subnational and individual economic impacts, potentially weakening local governments’ motivation to tackle climate change. Figuring out the most affected regions and labors could help climate policymakers to identify priority regions and sectors to allocate adaptation resources efficiently, and enhance stakeholder engagement. This study adopted a provincial Computable General Equilibrium model by distinguishing different labors and regions in modelling work to address the aforementioned gap. The study estimated economic costs at different level under three climate change scenarios (lower (SSP126), middle (SSP245), and higher (SSP585) warming scenario). Low-income regions located in southwest part of China (such as Guangxi and Guizhou), would experience the largest economic loss, 3.4–7.1 times higher than high-income in China by 2100 under SSP245 scenario. Additionally, wages for labors highly sensitive to heat in these regions are expected to rise, for example, by an 8.3% rise in Guangxi, driven by the rising demand for these labors. Conversely, others would experience a significant wage decrease, especially those with less sensitivity (e.g., managers). Therefore, we recommended that national financial supports be allocated more to these most affected regions and that government encourage managers provide assistance to workers vulnerable to heat.

Exploration of Microalgae-Activated Sludge Growth Performance in Lab-Scale Photobioreactors under Outdoor Environmental Conditions for Wastewater Biotreatment

Increasing the volume of untreated and inadequately treated municipal wastewater undermines the circular economy potential of wastewater resources, particularly in low-income regions. This present study focused on and evaluated the performance of native microalgae-activated sludge (MAS) growth for tertiary treatment of anaerobically digested wastewater from an up-flow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) in an outdoor lab-scale photobioreactor (2.2 L). Three conditions with distinct MAS inoculum concentrations alongside three controls were operated in batch mode for 5 days hydraulic retention time (HRT) at 11.5:12.5 photo-hours. The MAS inoculum concentration influenced the treatment outcome. The best performance was observed when the MAS concentration was 0.10/0.20 g L−1, and the cell density was 1.60 × 107 cells mL−1, total biomass productivity of 0.10 g TSS L−1 d−1, total phosphorus uptake of 85.1%, and total nitrogen uptake of 66.1%. Logarithmic removal (Log-Re) of bacterial pathogens (water quality indicators) showed Log-Re 3.4 for total coliforms (1.37 × 102 CFU 100 mL−1) and 4.7 for Escherichia coli (0.00 × 100 CFU 100 mL−1). The results revealed optimum remediation performance and nutrient recovery potential with appropriate inoculum concentration, in admiration to advancing the science of circular economy.

Development strategies for reducing infant mortality: A focus on healthcare infrastructure and policy in emerging Asian countries

The journey towards better healthcare sustainability in Asian nations demands a comprehensive investigation into the impact of urban governance, poverty, and female literacy on infant mortality rates. This study undertakes a rigorous exploration of these key factors to pave the way for evidence-based policy interventions, utilizing data from a panel of six selected Asian countries: Pakistan, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, spanning the years 2001 to 2020. The findings reveal that adequate sanitation facilities, higher female literacy rates, and sustained economic growth contribute to a reduction in infant mortality. Conversely, increased poverty levels and limited women’s autonomy exacerbate the infant mortality rates observed in these countries. The Granger causality analysis validates the reciprocal relationship between urban sanitation (and poverty) and infant mortality rates. Furthermore, the study establishes a causal relationship where female literacy rates Granger-cause infant mortality rates, and conversely, infant mortality rates Granger-cause women’s autonomy in these countries. The variance decomposition analysis indicates that sustained economic growth, improved female literacy rates, and enhanced women’s empowerment will likely impact infant mortality rates in the coming decade. Consequently, in low-income regions where numerous children face potentially hazardous circumstances, it is imperative to allocate resources towards establishing and maintaining accessible fundamental knowledge regarding sanitation services, as this will aid in reducing infant mortality rates.

Adapting to climate change: substitution effect of water on residential electricity consumption

PurposeAs climate change impacts residential life, people typically use heating or cooling appliances to deal with varying outside temperatures, bringing extra electricity demand and living costs. Water is more cost-effective than electricity and could provide the same body utility, which may be an alternative choice to smooth electricity consumption fluctuation and provide living cost incentives. Therefore, this study aims to identify the substitute effect of water on the relationship between climate change and residential electricity consumption.Design/methodology/approachThis study identifies the substitute effect of water and potential heterogeneity using panel data from 295 cities in China over the period 2004–2019. The quantile regression and the partially linear functional coefficient model in this study could reduce the risks of model misspecification and enable detailed identification of the substitution mechanism, which is in line with reality and precisely determines the heterogeneity at different consumption levels.FindingsThe results indicate that residential water consumption can weaken the impact of cooling demand on residential electricity consumption, especially in low-income regions. Moreover, residents exhibited adaptive asymmetric behaviors. As the electricity consumption level increased, the substitute effects gradually get strong. The substitute effects gradually strengthened when residential water consumption per capita exceeds 16.44 tons as the meeting of the basic life guarantee.Originality/valueThis study identifies the substitution role of water and heterogeneous behaviors in the residential sector in China. These findings augment the existing literature and could aid policymakers, investors and residents regarding climate issues, risk management and budget management.

Global birdwatching data reveal uneven consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic

Birdwatching is a global phenomenon involving many thousands of people. Citizen science generates data providing insights into global patterns of bird distribution across space and time, yet how the pandemic may have cast a longer shadow remains unassessed. Here, we explore whether pandemic restrictions influenced observations, and the species observed globally from 2020 to May 2021, considering also GDPc and tourism income. We analyzed 10,338 bird species (93 % of all bird species) and found that whilst high-income regions recovered to pre-pandemic assessment rates quickly, middle and low-income regions remained at low levels. Furthermore, protected areas saw huge losses in recorded richness. Whilst observer count increased overall, the number of bird species recorded dramatically decreased, especially in 2020. These trends are most marked in developing countries and regions, especially where tourism is important. Our results underline the importance of these biodiversity data, and the potential for their shortfalls in the face of a global pandemic.

Impact of urban spatial factors on NO2 concentration based on different socio-economic restriction scenarios in U.S. cities

The impact of socio-economic restriction measures in the United States showed a significant reduction in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions due to the changes in commuting patterns, travel restrictions, and reduced social and economic activities. The data from 60 observation stations across different states representing of different urban settings were used to assess the impacts of dynamic changes in human mobility and static emission sources on NO2 concentrations. Two predictive models, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous (SARIMAX) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), were used to forecast NO2 concentrations under a counterfactual scenario in the assumption of no lockdown was implemented. The predicted concentrations were then compared to the observed concentrations to evaluate the difference between the two scenarios, during lockdown and after lockdown by using the last five-years (2015–2019) average as baseline. Results showed that reduction in NO2 varied across stations due to a combination of factors such as human mobility, population density, income, local climate, and stationary sources of NO2 emissions in the neighbourhood. The stations located in high-income regions with higher population density experienced a greater reduction in mobility, resulting in a greater variation in NO2 levels during both periods. In contrast, stations in densely populated low-income regions experienced lower variation in mobility and NO2 levels during the lockdown period but showed recovery during the post-lockdown period. Stations located outside the city with very low population density experienced no significant reduction in NO2 emissions. The study highlights the disparities in NO2 reduction and income inequality exposed by the pandemic, which may have scientific impacts on air quality and health disparities.

Social policy in Africa: Risks, protection, and dynamics

The ideas, practicalities, and challenges of establishing effective social protection in Africa are steadily, if somewhat slowly, gaining notice in both policy-making forums and mainstream social policy analysis. The world’s second largest and populous continent, Africa is also its poorest region, with chronic poverty, vulnerabilities, and preventable hardship. Despite some significant developments in social welfare interventions and outcomes since the turn of the century, the policy agenda and dynamics in most countries remain complex and tenuous, arguably more so than other lower and middle income (LMIC) regions. This special edition contributes to a critical analysis of the challenges and opportunities facing social protection systems in Africa. It also seeks to examine the extent to which the staple explanatory concepts of welfare dynamics in the northern and western hemispheres – the role of actors, ideas, and institutions – need to be modified or adapted when analysing welfare dynamics in Africa. The focus is on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) rather than the more diverse and heterogeneous Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. While, it is important to acknowledge that SSA nations are also distinct and varied; nevertheless, they share important characteristics in terms of historical contexts, average incomes, development outcomes, and most relevant for the purpose of this analysis, social policy strategies, and challenges.

Time lag effect on malaria transmission dynamics in an Amazonian Colombian municipality and importance for early warning systems

Malaria remains a significant public health problem worldwide, particularly in low-income regions with limited access to healthcare. Despite the use of antimalarial drugs, transmission remains an issue in Colombia, especially among indigenous populations in remote areas. In this study, we used an SIR Ross MacDonald model that considered land use change, temperature, and precipitation to analyze eco epidemiological parameters and the impact of time lags on malaria transmission in La Pedrera—Amazonas municipality. We found changes in land use between 2007 and 2020, with increases in forested areas, urban infrastructure and water edges resulting in a constant increase in mosquito carrying capacity. Temperature and precipitation variables exhibited a fluctuating pattern that corresponded to rainy and dry seasons, respectively and a marked influence of the El Niño climatic phenomenon. Our findings suggest that elevated precipitation and temperature increase malaria infection risk in the following 2 months. The risk is influenced by the secondary vegetation and urban infrastructure near primary forest formation or water body edges. These results may help public health officials and policymakers develop effective malaria control strategies by monitoring precipitation, temperature, and land use variables to flag high-risk areas and critical periods, considering the time lag effect.

Combined effect of ozone and household air pollution on COPD in people aged less than 50 years old

ObjectivesAir pollution has been suggested as an important risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); however, evidence of interactive effects on COPD between different factors was sparse, especially for...

Characteristics of distance education interventions and related outcomes in primary school children during COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review.

The COVID-19 pandemic containment measures such as school closures remarkably disrupt the educational system, from in-person learning to remote or distance education with different interventions. This study aimed to identify the characteristics of interventions in remote or distance education during the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluate the outcomes of each intervention. A systematic review was conducted between October 2021 and May 2022 using four databases. Finally, 22 studies met the eligibility criteria and were included for data analysis. Most of the interventions were synchronous student-centered approaches followed by asynchronous student-centered approaches and mixed-learning through online channels such as desktop- and web-based modality. Remote or distance education is effective in academic development in any learning approach while having mixed effects in student attitudes and perceptions. Academic-related behaviors were most engaged by students in synchronous student-centered approaches. Finally, difficulties or burdens, and mental health or social interaction were similar for all learning approaches in technological problems and support systems from families and teachers. Synchronous student-centered approaches should be the main method of education, but other approaches can be used to complement based on the students' needs. Finally, educational infrastructure and support from teachers and parents are also necessary in remote or distance education. Further studies are needed to focus on primary school students, especially in low-income regions, and apply a randomized study design.

Immunological factors linked to geographical variation in vaccine responses.

Vaccination is one of medicine's greatest achievements; however, its full potential is hampered by considerable variation in efficacy across populations and geographical regions. For example, attenuated malaria vaccines in high-income countries confer almost 100% protection, whereas in low-income regions these same vaccines achieve only 20-50% protection. This trend is also observed for other vaccines, such as bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), rotavirus and yellow fever vaccines, in terms of either immunogenicity or efficacy. Multiple environmental factors affect vaccine responses, including pathogen exposure, microbiota composition and dietary nutrients. However, there has been variable success with interventions that target these individual factors, highlighting the need for a better understanding of their downstream immunological mechanisms to develop new ways of modulating vaccine responses. Here, we review the immunological factors that underlie geographical variation in vaccine responses. Through the identification of causal pathways that link environmental influences to vaccine responsiveness, it might become possible to devise modulatory compounds that can complement vaccines for better outcomes in regions where they are needed most.

Renewable energy, agriculture, and carbon dioxide emissions nexus: implications for sustainable development in sub-Saharan African countries

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced a high economic growth rate over the last two decades, which has been accompanied by concerns about increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study aims to find out whether renewable energy and agriculture can help reduce CO2 emissions for selected SSA countries. A balanced dataset incorporating CO2 emissions, renewable energy consumption, agricultural land per capita, GDP per capita, urbanization level and energy intensity of 38 SSA countries covering the period 2000–2019 is utilized. The differentiated-generalized method of moments (GMM) is employed as a benchmark estimation method to estimate the effects of renewable energy and agriculture on CO2. The regional heterogeneity analysis of countries at different income levels is then carried out. The moderating role of government governance in the energy-agriculture-environment nexus is also investigated. The following conclusions are highlighted: (1) the consumption of renewable energy can reduce CO2 emissions, while agriculture increases them; (2) the mitigating effect of renewable energy on CO2 emissions is relatively larger in countries at a low income level countries than in high-income countries, while agriculture aggravates CO2 emissions in lower middle-income and low-income regions, but mitigates emissions in upper middle-income regions; and (3) governance quality turns the mitigating role of renewable energy use on CO2 emissions into an increasing one, and exaggerates the polluting effect of agriculture. Finally, the study proposes policy implications for improving renewable energy use and green agricultural growth to achieve sustainable development in SSA.

Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis for Discovering Nature-Based Solutions Location for Urban Flood Mitigation in Accra

In recent years, Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) have become instrumental in restoring ecosystems and reducing the negative effects of hard surface developments. Existing studies have shown the potential of NBS in mitigating urban floods and reducing overall hydrogeological risks, especially in high-income areas. However, there is limited knowledge on area-specific NBS implementation and the locational suitability of areas to support different NBS for urban flood mitigation in medium to low-income regions. A methodology based on Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis (SMCA) has the potential to spatially combine and synthesize information to elicit spatially-specific opportunities for NBS implementation. However, an SMCA tool to determine suitable locations for different NBS measures for urban flood mitigation does not yet exist. In order to address this research gap, this study developed an SMCA methodology to identify different target areas where specific urban flood-related NBS measures can be implemented to minimize urban flood occurrence in Accra, Ghana. The study revealed different locations where urban flood-related NBS measures could be applied. It also demonstrated how specific NBS measures could be tailored to the characteristics of different areas in Accra to ensure effective urban flood mitigation. The suggested methodological approach provides a spatial knowledge base for flood management institutions to integrate NBS into flood management schemes. The approach has application potential for other geographic contexts facing urban flood risks. Future research could focus on possible ways of integrating NBS into the spatial development of cities.

Climate change emergence over people’s lifetimes

The emergence of climate change from background variability is a useful metric for identifying changes in local climate which may affect people and ecosystems. Studies have found that equatorial regions, which are typically poorer, experience clearer climate change emergence over the observational record and in model projections. Here, we perform the first analysis of people’s experienced climate change relative to background variability, and we examine where people have already lived through an emergence of local warming. We calculate signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and combine these with demographic data to compute local emergence of warming over human lifetimes. Younger people have typically experienced less clear emergence of a climate change signal over their lifetimes to date. Over a given time period, tropical, lower-income areas have experienced higher S/N than extratropical and typically higher-income areas. However, this is counter-balanced by the younger populations of these areas such that the median experienced S/N ratio is similar between the wealthiest and poorest parts of the world. Given projected ageing of low-income regions, it is imperative that substantial climate action is taken to avoid local climates becoming unrecognizable within human lifetimes.

Earthquake early warning in Central America: The societal perspective

Central America has an elevated seismic risk, resulting from the vulnerability of the building stock and steady population growth. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) aims to provide warning in advance of imminent shaking, allowing recipients to take action and reduce casualties during damaging motions. The Swiss Seismological Service (SED) has been collaborating with local seismic agencies to develop national EEW systems across Central America, which can potentially benefit nearly 47 million inhabitants. We conducted a public survey to comprehend the desire for EEW, the preferences for EEW attributes, and the current behaviour of people during earthquakes and the driving factors behind it. We recruited participants from Nicaragua (N = 513), Costa Rica (N = 1350), Guatemala (N = 559), and El Salvador (N = 491). In all four countries, participants consider it necessary to have an EEW system, are tolerant of false alerts, and are likely to react promptly to alerts. The desirable alert threshold is for low felt intensities, ranging between MMI III to IV. We found that a significant number of respondents already take protective action when earthquakes strike, and appropriate reactions are expected to increase when EEW is available. Our survey is unique in providing insights into the social dimension of EEW systems in low-income regions with high earthquake risk and where no operational EEW system yet exists.

A QGIS -plugin for gully erosion modeling

Gully erosion affects the landscape and human life in many ways, including the destruction of agricultural land and infrastructures, altering the hydraulic potential of soils, as well as water availability. Due to climate change, more areas are expected to be affected by gully erosion in the future, threatening especially low-income agricultural regions. In the past decades, quantitative methods have been proposed to simulate and predict gully erosion at different scales. However, gully erosion is still underrepresented in modern GIS-based modeling and simulation approaches. Therefore, this study aims to develop a QGIS plugin using Python to assess gully erosion dynamics. We explain the preparation of the input data, the modeling procedure based on Sidorchuk’s (Sidorchuk A (1999) Dynamic and static models of gully erosion. CATENA 37:401–414.) gully simulation model, and perform a detailed sensitivity analysis of model parameters. The plugin uses topographical data, soil characteristics and discharge information as gully model input. The plugin was tested on a gully network in KwaThunzi, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The results and sensitivity analyses confirm Sidorchuck’s earlier observations that the critical runoff velocity is a main controlling parameter in gully erosion evolution, alongside with the slope stability threshold and the soil erodibility coefficient. The implemented QGIS plugin simplifies the gully model setup, the input parameter preparation as well as the post-processing and visualization of modelling results. The results are provided in different data formats to be visualized with different 3D visualization software tools. This enables a comprehensive gully assessment and the derivation of respective coping and mitigation strategies.

Estimating disparities in breast cancer screening programs towards mortality, case fatality, and DALYs across BRICS-plus

BackgroundNumerous studies over the past four decades have revealed that breast cancer screening (BCS) significantly reduces breast cancer (BC) mortality. However, in BRICS-plus countries, the association between BCS and BC case fatality and disability are unknown. This study examines the association of different BCS approaches with age-standardized mortality, case-fatality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, as well as with other biological and sociodemographic risk variables, across BRICS-plus from a national and economic perspective.MethodsIn this ecological study applying mixed-effect multilevel regression models, a country-specific dataset was analyzed by combining data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 on female age-standardized BC mortality, incidence, and DALYs rates with information on national/regional BCS availability (against no such program or only a pilot program) and BCS type (only self-breast examination (SBE) and/or clinical breast examination (CBE) [SBE/CBE] versus SBE/CBE with mammographic screening availability [MM and/or SBE/CBE] versus SBE/CBE/mammographic with digital mammography and/or ultrasound (US) [DMM/US and/or previous tests] in BRICS-plus countries.ResultsCompared to self/clinical breast examinations (SBE/CBE) across BRICS-plus, more complex BCS program availability was the most significant predictor of decreased mortality [MM and/or SBE/CBE: − 2.64, p < 0.001; DMM/US and/or previous tests: − 1.40, p < 0.001]. In the BRICS-plus, CVD presence, high BMI, second-hand smoke, and active smoking all contributed to an increase in BC mortality and DALY rate. High-income and middle-income regions in BRICS-plus had significantly lower age-standardized BC mortality, case-fatality, and DALYs rates than low-income regions when nationwide BC screening programs were implemented.ConclusionsThe availability of mammography (digital or traditional) and BCS is associated with breast cancer burden in BRICS-plus countries, with regional variations. In light of high-quality evidence from previous causal studies, these findings further support the preventive role of mammography screening for BCS at the national level. Intervening on BCS related risk factors may further reduce the disease burden associated with BC.

Heterogeneity of Mortgage Refinancing Channel in Russian Regions

During the period of monetary policy easing in Russia, mortgage refinancing became popular, which involves the issuance of a new mortgage housing loan to repay an earlier loan on more favorable terms. There is a regionally heterogeneous refinancing of mortgages at lower mortgage rates. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the impact of monetary easing on mortgage refinancing and household consumption for groups of Russian regions. Econometric methods (vector autoregression models on panel data, estimated by Bayesian methods) and multivariate clustering (hierarchical analysis, k-means method) were used in the paper. Based on the impulse response functions, it is shown that during the period of monetary policy easing, the greatest effect of lowering mortgage interest rates on refinancing is typical for groups of regions with high- and middle-income levels, a liquid housing market, and a developed mortgage market. It is proven that refinancing is involved in the transfer of the effects of monetary policy to consumer spending and consumer lending, and this transfer is heterogeneously. Refinancing in low-income regions stimulates consumption and consumer borrowing. In regions with an average and high level of per capita cash income, after refinancing, consumer spending and consumer loans are temporarily reduced. The obtained results can be explained by the different types of financial behavior of borrowers in the use of top-up mortgage refinancing, depending on the level of their cash income. Based on the results of the study, the hypothesis about the heterogeneity of the refinancing channel in the Russian regions was confirmed. The scientific novelty of the study consists in the development of a methodological approach to the study of the refinancing channel and its approbation on Russian regional data.

Correlation between Social Media Utilization and the Young Generation’s Online Shopping Behavior in Eastern Indonesia

Online shopping is popular among generations Y and Z in Indonesia. This research study evaluated consumer online shopping behavior in Eastern Indonesia, a lower income and lower internet penetration region than western Indonesia. Online study questionnaires were distributed to the region's main cities or provincial capitals to collect profile data on the internet and social media use in the Indonesian society. A total of 613 respondents completed the questionnaires. Correspondence analysis was used to assess the relationship between two categorical variables. Instagram was the most popular social media followed by Facebook, Youtube, Twitter, and TikTok. Most of the respondents used more than one platform. Almost all respondents had shopped online (95.76%) after a product review from mainly consumer reviews and rarely from promotions by influencers. However, online shoppers were still wary of products that did not match their online description.