Low Flow Years Research Articles

Assessing interannual variability in nitrogen sourcing and retention through hybrid Bayesian watershed modeling

Abstract. Excessive nutrient loading is a major cause of water quality problems worldwide, often leading to harmful algal blooms and hypoxia in lakes and coastal systems. Efficient nutrient management requires that loading sources are accurately quantified. However, loading rates from various urban and rural non-point sources remain highly uncertain especially with respect to climatological variation. Furthermore, loading models calibrated using statistical techniques (i.e., hybrid models) often have limited capacity to differentiate export rates among various source types, given the noisiness and paucity of observational data common to many locations. To address these issues, we leverage data for two North Carolina Piedmont river basins collected over three decades (1982–2017) using a mechanistically parsimonious watershed loading and transport model calibrated within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. We explore temporal drivers of loading by incorporating annual changes in precipitation, land use, livestock, and point sources within the model formulation. Also, different representations of urban development are compared based on how they constrain model uncertainties. Results show that urban lands built before 1980 are the largest source of nutrients, exporting over twice as much nitrogen per hectare than agricultural and post-1980 urban lands. In addition, pre-1980 urban lands are the most hydrologically constant source of nutrients, while agricultural lands show the most variation among high- and low-flow years. Finally, undeveloped lands export an order of magnitude (∼7–13×) less nitrogen than built environments.

Relationship between Water Surface Area of Qingtu Lake and Ecological Water Delivery: A Case Study in Northwest China

Qingtu Lake is located between Tengger Desert and Badain Jilin Desert, Gansu Province, Northwest China. It is the terminal lake of Shiyang River. In recent years, Qingtu lake has maintained a certain area of water surface and vegetation by artificial water conveyance. It is of great significance in preventing the convergence of the two deserts and restraining the trend of ecological deterioration of Shiyang River Basin. The relationship between the water surface area and the ecological water conveyance have not been thoroughly investigated. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of water surface area of Qingtu Lake and surrounding reeds by interpreting remote sensing data; the change of water surface area under the influence of meteorological factors and water conveyance by linear regression; the water conveyance to maintain current water surface area by water balance method, as well as the reasonable ecological water delivery in high flow year, normal flow year and low flow year by the means of analyzing the upstream inflow and water consumption in Minqin Basin. The results showed that there is a significant correlation between the water surface area of Qingtu Lake, evaporation and ecological water conveyance, and the minimum and maximum water surface areas generally appear before and after water delivery, indicating that the ecological water delivery and evaporation are the two main factors affecting the water surface area change of Qingtu Lake. The result calculated by linear regression indicated that the ecological water delivery volume to maintain current water surface area of Qingtu Lake is 3.146 × 107 m3/yr, while the value was 3.136 × 107 m3/yr calculated by water balance method. These two results are similar and can be verified with each other. Reasonable ecological water conveyance of Qingtu Lake in high flow year, normal flow year and low flow years were 4 × 107 m3/yr, 3.2 × 107 m3/yr and 2.3 × 107 m3/yr, respectively.

Microhabitat use by pre‐spawning Pacific lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus in a large, regulated river differs by year, river segment, and availability

Decreasing river flows and increasing water temperatures during the summer have been associated with holding behavior by pre-spawning Pacific lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus in the mainstem Willamette River (Oregon, USA). However, it is unclear if microhabitat use (≤ 2 m) by these lamprey is associated with particular habitat structure(s) or thermal refuge. We implanted radio tags into lamprey (n = 425) and conducted boat surveys to track individuals and document their microhabitat use in the mainstem Willamette River. 58 % of the lamprey were detected, representing 460 detections of 247 individuals across two years (2009 and 2010). Lamprey distributed significantly further upstream, and more were found in the main channel during a high flow year (2010) in comparison with a low flow year (2009). More lamprey held in the main channel across all river segments in 2010 than in 2009. Main channel habitats were significantly deeper than other microhabitats. Lamprey migrating into the upper river segment tended to use microhabitats other than the main channel. These other microhabitats included rock revetments and boulders/bedrock. Rock revetments were more prevalent in the middle – upper river segments, and a greater percentage of lamprey were associated with this microhabitat in these segments. The further upstream the lamprey migrated, the cooler, shallower, and faster water they encountered. One lamprey was associated with coolwater refuge (15.5 oC) in an alcove to the mainstem river (18.1 oC). We conclude that microhabitat use by pre-spawning Pacific lamprey differs by year (river flow), river segment, and availability in a large, regulated river.

Cumulative Effects of Uncertainty on Simulated Streamflow in a Hydrologic Modeling Environment

It is common in the literature to not consider all sources of uncertainty simultaneously: input, structural, parameter, and observed calibration data uncertainty, particularly in data-sparse environments due to data limitations and the complexities that arise from data limitations when propagating uncertainty downstream in a modelling chain. This paper presents results for the propagation of multiple sources of uncertainty towards the estimation of streamflow uncertainty in a data-sparse environment. Uncertainty sources are separated to ensure low likelihood uncertainty distribution tails are not rejected to examine the interaction of sources of uncertainty. Three daily resolution hydrologic models (HYPE, WATFLOOD, and HEC-HMS), forced with three precipitation ensemble realizations, generated from five gridded climate datasets, for the 1981–2010 period were used to examine the effects of cumulative propagation of uncertainty in the Lower Nelson River Basin as part of the BaySys project. Selected behavioral models produced an average range of Kling-Gupta Efficiency scores of 0.79–0.68. Two alternative methods for behavioral model selection were also considered that ingest streamflow uncertainty. Structural and parameter uncertainty was found to be insufficient, individually, by producing some uncertainty envelopes narrower than observed streamflow uncertainty. Combined structural and parameter uncertainty, propagated to simulated streamflow, often enveloped nearly 100% of observed streamflow values, however, high and low flow years were generally a source for lower reliabilities in simulated results. Including all sources of uncertainty generated simulated uncertainty bounds that enveloped most of the observed flow uncertainty bounds including improvement for high and low flow years across all gauges although the uncertainty bounds generated were of low likelihood. Overall, accounting for each source of uncertainty added value to the simulated uncertainty bounds when compared to hydrometric uncertainty; the inclusion of hydrometric uncertainty was key for identifying the improvements to simulated ensembles.

The Enhanced Management of Water Resources Improves Ecosystem Services in a Typical Arid Basin

Ecosystem services (ES) are essential for human well-being. However, few studies have investigated the optimization of the management of water resources based on trade-offs of ES in arid areas. In order to solve this problem, four important ES that affect the carbon cycle and water cycle were selected from the regulating ecosystem services (carbon storage (CAS), evapotranspiration (ET)), the supporting ecosystem services (soil drought index (TVDI)) and the provisioning ecosystem services (groundwater depth (GWD)) in arid areas. The spatiotemporal distribution of these four ES were quantitatively analyzed—using related models—in the Tarim River, situated in a typical arid inland basin, in 2000, 2010, and 2018, in order to determine the fundamental driving factors of change in ES. The results showed that CAS was mainly affected by changes in land use, while ET, TVDI, and GWD were mainly affected by changes in water volume. The unified management of water resources improved the regulating ecosystem services (an initial increase in CAS, followed by a decrease; ET continued to grow from 2000 to 2018), the supporting ecosystem services (TVDI was maintained at 0.69–0.74), and the provisioning ecosystem services (GWD rose 5.77% in 2000–2010, and stabilized at 3.05 m in 2018). The trade-off/synergy relationships of the four ES were further analyzed at different geographical scales through correlation analysis and the trade-off index (RMSD). In different river sections, the ES that affect carbon and water cycles were highly dependent on each other. In areas with high CAS, the groundwater depth was low, and the soil moisture and ET were high. With different land use types, there was a synergistic relationship between CAS and GWD in woodland and grassland areas, and between ET and GWD in farmland areas. This showed that there was still strong competition between natural vegetation and groundwater, represented by woodland and grassland, and the ineffective loss of water resources such as ET through expansion of farmland. Finally, this study innovatively incorporated the results of trade-offs of ES into water resource management. In order to reduce the trade-offs between ES, and to improve ES, to achieve the ecological protection and restoration of desert riparian forests, and to optimize the water resource management in arid areas, different ecological water regulation and control measures were proposed in the high-flow years and the low-flow years of arid areas. This study can provide important scientific references for the improvement of ES and the optimization of the management of water resources in other similar river basins in arid areas.

Forage Fish Larvae Distribution and Habitat Use During Contrasting Years of Low and High Freshwater Flow in the San Francisco Estuary

Recruitment of estuarine organisms can vary dramatically from year to year with abiotic and biotic conditions. The San Francisco Estuary (California, USA) supports a dynamic ecosystem that receives freshwater flow from numerous tributaries that drain one of the largest watersheds in western North America. In this study, we examined distribution and habitat use of two forage fish larvae of management interest, Longfin Smelt Spirinchus thaleichthys and Pacific Herring Clupea pallasii, during a low-flow and a high-flow year to better understand how their rearing locations (region and habitat) may affect their annual recruitment variability. During the low-flow year, larval and post-larval Longfin Smelt were distributed landward, where suitable salinity overlapped with spawning habitats. During the high-flow year, larval Longfin Smelt were distributed seaward, with many collected in smaller tributaries and shallow habitats of San Francisco Bay. Local spawning and advection from seaward habitats were speculated to be the primary mechanisms that underlie larval Longfin Smelt distribution during the high-flow year. Larval Pacific Herring were more abundant seaward in both years, but a modest number of larvae were also found landward during the low-flow year. Larval Pacific Herring abundance was lower overall in the high-flow year, suggesting advection out of the area or poor recruitment. Future monitoring and conservation efforts for Longfin Smelt and Pacific Herring should recognize that potential mechanisms underlying their recruitment can vary broadly across the San Francisco Estuary in any given year, which suggests that monitoring and research of these two species expand accordingly with hydrologic conditions that are likely to affect their spawning and larval rearing distributions.

An Interval Fuzzy, Double-Sided, Chance-Constrained Stochastic Programming Model for Planning the Ecological Service Value of Interconnected River Systems

The western region of Jilin Province is an ecologically fragile area with scarce water resources. The effective allocation of the limited water resources in order to obtain a higher ecological service value is an urgent requirement. In this paper, an interval fuzzy, double-sided chance-constrained, stochastic programming (IFDCP) model was used based on the interconnected river system network project in the western Jilin Province. With the objective of maximizing the value of regional ecological services, the water diversion and supplement schemes were optimized and adjusted. The model results showed that the restored water surface area of all lakes and ponds in the western region of Jilin Province was higher than the initially planned scheme in the high flow year. The water surface area fulfilled the minimum constraints, but did not fulfill the initial scheme in the normal flow year. In the low flow year, the lower limit of some of the regions had to be decreased in order to meet the allocation of the limited water resources. The proportion of floodwater resource utilization gradually increased with an increase in the flood amount. The ecological service value produced in the normal and high flow years was found to be higher than the initial scheme. The marsh wetland can produce higher ecological service value. Therefore, the core of the model optimization was introducing more water to the marsh wetland after fulfilling the basic consumption of ponds and the reed wetland. In addition, the IFDCP model was more flexible in water diversion and supplement as compared to other models that had been developed previously.

Suitable Scale of an Oasis in Different Scenarios in an Arid Region of China: A Case Study of the Ejina Oasis

The main objective of this work is to calculate the suitable scale of the Ejina Oasis in different scenarios (high-, normal-, and low-flow years), assess the stability of the Ejina Oasis, and, finally, accurately determine if an artificial oasis area and total oasis area need to be reduced or increased. Using the water balance method, we calculated the suitable scale of the artificial Ejina Oasis as 767.80, 624.00, and 451.33 km2 in high-, normal-, and low-flow years, respectively. By utilizing the water-heat balance method combined with an assessment of the present stability of the Ejina Oasis, the results showed that in high-flow years, the suitable scale of the Ejina Oasis is 1174–1762 km2, and the stability index of the current oasis is 0.55. In normal-flow years, the suitable scale of the Ejina Oasis is found to be 915–1373 km2, and the stability index of the current oasis is 0.43. In low-flow years, the suitable scale of the Ejina Oasis is 590–885 km2, and the stability index of the current oasis decreases to 0.27. In order to further improve the stability of oases, it remains necessary to control the scale of oases to cope with water resource shortages that result from water resource instability under climate change. The present study’s findings will enable optimal water-use planning decisions that take social, economic, and ecological issues into account, and provide the foundation for optimal decision-making for regional administrative departments to effectively coordinate regional economic development, farmland protection, environmental protection, and water resource protection.

SWAT Model Simulation of Non-Point Source Pollution in the Miyun Reservoir Watershed

Non-point source pollution is becoming an important factor affecting water environment in China. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, the most powerful tool in measuring NPS, has played a significant role in NPS research across China. The suitability and calibration of the SWAT model is of primary importance. This study evaluated the effectiveness and applicability of SWAT model in runoff and nutrient load in Miyun Reservoir watershed. The SWAT model was also calibrated and validated using parameter sensitivity analysis, which showed that ALPHA_BF, SOL_AWC, CN2, NPERCO, PHOSKD and PPERCO were the most sensitive parameters, resulting in large variations in hydrological and nutrient loads. SWAT calibration and verification suggested it is a reliable method of measuring the NPS pollution in Miyun Reservoir watershed. This study estimated and analyzed spatial and temporal variations in NPS pollution loads in Miyun Reservoir watershed from 2005 and 2010. Significant variations in NPS pollution loads were found in different simulation periods. There were noticeable differences and an uneven distribution between high- and low-flow years. Nutrient loss occurred most frequently during high-flow years and wet seasons, the crucial period for pollution prevention. The results show that the total nitrogen loads is much higher than the total phosphorus loads. The pollution loads resulting from various land use types showed significant spatial differences: agricultural land had the most TN and TP load per unit area, followed by grassland. Forest land had the least pollution load per unit area. NPS load has a remarkable association with the spatial distribution of precipitation across the entire watershed.

Tidally resolved observations of organic carbon exchange through Eastern Long Island Sound

Long Island Sound (LIS), is an urban estuary on the US east coast that undergoes seasonal hypoxia in its western and central regions. Approximately 90% of the water exchange between LIS and the adjacent continental shelf, the Mid Atlantic Bight, occurs through its eastern boundary. Recent estimates of organic carbon (OC) export from LIS have shown that this value varies appreciably, both seasonally and inter-annually. In this study, the spatial, tidal, and seasonal variability were resolved by measuring dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC) concentrations and currents at a cross-section in eastern LIS near the estuary mouth. Fluxes were extrapolated from these high-resolution observations collected in May, August, and November 2016, and August 2017. In August of 2016 (a low flow year), an OC flux of 41 × 106 kg C month−1 resulted from a net import of DOC and an export of POC. In August of 2017 (an average flow year), there was an OC flux of 30 × 106 kg C month −1 due to both DOC and POC export, indicating significant seasonal and inter-annual variability. The seasonally weighted-average total OC flux for 2016 was −41 × 106 ± 9 kg C yr−1 (net import). Results show that spot sampling in tidal estuaries can lead to spatial and tidal bias in concentrations of DOC (6–15%) and POC (31–18%) under high and low river flow conditions, respectively. This uncertainty is recommended for spot sampling in future OC studies and flux estimates in LIS.

Camo-maps: An efficient method to assess and project riparian vegetation colonization after a major river flood

Major river floods provide powerful physical disturbances that create and expand gravel bars and islands. Their barren surfaces are suitable for seedling colonization by plants including poplars (cottonwoods) and willows that grow to contribute rich wildlife habitats and other ecosystem services. Conversely, in locations such as through bridges, riparian woodlands would impede future flows, elevating flood stages and increasing damage. It is consequently useful to understand where opportunity versus hazard locations occur and this encourages monitoring and predictive modeling of vegetation colonization. Colonization is related to the river inundation patterns but hydrodynamic modeling is difficult for complex channels and irregular features. Here we present an alternative empirical approach based on mapping of actual inundation patterns from a sequence of aerial photographs at different river flows. Based on field inventory of seedling distributions of different plants, we estimated inundation thresholds for six progressively lower riparian cover types: woodland, shrubland, perennial herbaceous, ruderal annuals, transition and barren. These were coordinated with the inundation patterns, enabling predictive mapping of the different vegetation classes to produce ‘camo-maps’. These resemble camouflage with the irregular shapes and classification colors matching the vegetation types. The derived camo-maps were then compared with a lidar-based mapping of topography and vegetation structure. As an illustrative case study, we present the method for a large and complex gravel bar upstream from a bridge sequence and an expanded island below another bridge in Calgary Canada, where a hundred-year flood in June 2013 caused severe damage. The camo-maps reasonably represented the actual colonization patterns, although low flow years enabled some vegetation survival at lower positions than predicted. We present this as an effective and efficient empirical method to provide an alternative or complement to riparian vegetation projections based on hydrodynamic modeling.

Risk assessment of floodwater resources utilization in water transfer projects based on an improved cloud model

Abstract The utilization of floodwater resources will produce benefits, but it will also pose risks; therefore, it is necessary to strengthen knowledge regarding risk assessment to minimize negative effects. In the present study, the risk factors for the utilization of floodwater resources in water diversion projects were identified, the index system was constructed, and the fuzziness and randomness of the risk were considered. Assessment was performed with respect to the following three projects: water storage, water conveyance, and water pumping. The specific methods to improve the cloud model are as follows: analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to calculate subjective weights, entropy weight method and projection pursuit method are used to calculate objective weights, X-conditional cloud is used to calculate index membership degree, and finally combination weight and membership degree are combined to obtain the risk level of flood resource utilization. The above methodology was applied to the risk assessment of floodwater resources utilization in the Jiangsu Province of the East Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The risk of floodwater resources utilization in high-flow, normal-flow, and low-flow years was evaluated, and the validity and applicability of the assessment method were verified.

Multi-Objective Optimal Scheduling of Wangwu Reservoir Based on NSGA-II

Wangwu Reservoir is a multi-purpose reservoir that integrates urban water supply, irrigation, industrial water and landscape ecological water supply, and a multi-objective optimal scheduling model is established to explore the relationship between water supply loss and landscape loss caused by water shortage in Wangwu Reservoir. Based on the GANetXL program, the NSGA-II algorithm is applied to the optimal scheduling model of Wangwu Reservoir, and the Pareto optimal solution sets are obtained in the three different incoming water conditions of high flow year, normal flow year and low flow year. These optimal solution sets provide decision-making basis and specific program references for the optimal scheduling method of Wangwu Reservoir.

Tree-Ring Reconstructions of Streamflow for the Tennessee Valley

This study reports the preliminary results from a statistical screening of tree-ring width records from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB), to evaluate the strength of the hydrological signal, in dendrochronological records from the Tennessee Valley. We used United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data from 11 gages, within the Tennessee Valley, and regional tree-ring chronologies, to analyze the dendroclimatic potential of the region, and create seasonal flow reconstructions. Prescreening methods included correlation, date, and temporal stability analysis of predictors to ensure practical and reliable reconstructions. Seasonal correlation analysis revealed that large numbers of regional tree-ring chronologies were significantly correlated (p ≤ 0.05) with the May–June–July streamflow. Stepwise linear regression was used to create the May–June–July streamflow reconstructions. Ten of the 12 streamflow stations were considered statistically skillful (R2 ≥ 0.40). Skillful reconstructions ranged from 208 to 301 years in length, and were statistically validated using leave-one-out cross validation, the sign test, and a comparison of the distribution of low flow years. The long-term streamflow variability was analyzed for the Nolichucky, Nantahala, Emory, and South Fork (SF) Holston stations. The reconstructions revealed that while most of the Western United States (U.S.). was experiencing some of its highest flow years during the early 1900s, the Tennessee Valley region was experiencing a very low flow. Results revealed the potential benefit of using tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct hydrological variables in the Southeastern U.S., by demonstrating the ability of proxy-based reconstructions to provide useful data beyond the instrumental record.

The river runs through it: The Athabasca River delivers mercury to aquatic birds breeding far downstream.

This study examined factors contributing to temporal variability (2009–2017) in total mercury (THg) concentrations in aquatic bird eggs collected in the Peace-Athabasca Delta and Lake Athabasca in northern Alberta. Factors examined included year of egg collection, site of collection, bird species, bird diets, annual surface-mineable oil sands production, forest fires, and flow of the Athabasca River. Surface mining activities associated with Alberta’s Athabasca oil sands are situated north of Fort McMurray, Alberta, adjacent to the northward-flowing Athabasca River. Previous studies have found that oil sands industrial operations release mercury into the local (within ~50 km) environment. An information-theoretic approach revealed that the best model for explaining egg THg levels included Athabasca River flow, bird food source, and bird species. Variability in egg THg levels was partly a reflection of differences in food sources, e.g. proportions of aquatic versus terrestrial food in bird diets. Annual fluctuations in maximal flow of the Athabasca River were also important with eggs collected following years of high maximal flow exhibiting higher THg concentrations. Furthermore, eggs collected in years of high versus low flow differed in their stable Hg isotope composition with less mass-independent fraction of 199Hg and 201Hg in years of high flow. Riverine processes associated with suspended sediment were likely critical in regulating Hg availability to nesting birds. This study highlights the importance of the Athabasca River as a conduit for Hg transport to ecologically-sensitive downstream ecosystems such as the Peace-Athabasca Delta and Wood Buffalo National Park (a UNESCO World Heritage Site). Human activities that increase atmospheric Hg deposition to the Athabasca River watershed, or that enhance Hg releases to the river through erosion of Hg-bearing soils, will likely increase the availability of Hg to organisms inhabiting downstream areas.

Linking beaver dam affected flow dynamics to upstream passage of Arctic grayling.

Beaver reintroductions and beaver dam structures are an increasingly utilized ecological tool for rehabilitating degraded streams, yet beaver dams can potentially impact upstream fish migrations. We collected two years of data on Arctic grayling movement through a series of beaver dams in a low gradient mountain stream, utilizing radio‐telemetry techniques, to determine how hydrology, dam characteristics, and fish attributes impeded passage and movement rates of spawning grayling. We compared fish movement between a “normal” flow year and a “low” flow year, determined grayling passage probabilities over dams in relation to a suite of factors, and predicted daily movement rates in relation to the number of dams each fish passed and distance between dams during upstream migration to spawning areas. We found that the average passage probability over unbreached beaver dams was 88%, though we found that it fell below 50% at specific dams. Upstream passage of grayling was affected by three main characteristics: (a) temperature, (b) breach status, and (c) hydrologic linkages that connect sections of stream above and below the dam. Other variables influence passage, but to a lesser degree. Cumulative passage varied with distance upstream and total number of dams passed in low versus normal flow years, while movement rates upstream slowed as fish swam closer to dams. Our findings demonstrate that upstream passage of fish over beaver dams is strongly correlated with hydrologic conditions with moderate controls by dam‐ and fish‐level characteristics. Our results provide a framework that can be applied to reduce barrier effects when and where beaver dams pose a significant threat to the upstream migration of fish populations while maintaining the diverse ecological benefits of beaver activity when dams are not a threat to fish passage.

Rainfall and runoff characteristics in a karstic basin of China

AbstractThis paper examines the rainfall and runoff characteristics in a karstic basin of China. The results indicated that the inner-annual distributions of rainfall and runoff were uneven and slightly different, as the concentration period of rainfall (from April to October) was earlier; there was a delay of about a month before the runoff (from May to September), and the concentrated volume accounted for 87% of annual precipitation or annual streamflow. Interannually, rainfall changed more significantly than runoff, the wet years lasted longer than the dry years (rainfall), while the high and low flow years were equal for runoff. In addition, judging from the value of the Mann-Kendall test, the average annual change of rainfall (−2.36) was more significant than that of runoff (−2.05), and the seasonal pattern of runoff maintained an opposite tendency in autumn and winter before 1990. The changes in runoff were mainly associated with rainfall and the formation conditions in the karstic area, and the reservoir in this basin should be operated with different flood limiting water levels, and the vegetation coverage should be improved.

Evaluation of ocean-atmospheric indices as predictors for summer streamflow of the Yangtze River based on ROC analysis

Antecedent anomalies of sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation are important signals for making long-term streamflow forecasts. In this study, four groups of ocean-atmospheric indices, i.e, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation (SAC), and the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean SST (WPI), are evaluated for forecasting summer streamflow of the Yangtze River. The gradient boosting regression tree (GBRT) is used to forecast streamflow based on each group of indices. The score based on receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves, i.e., area under the ROC curve (AUC), is used to evaluate skills of models for identifying the high category and the low category of summer streamflow. It is found that the ENSO group and the SAC group show higher AUC values. Furthermore, both AUC values of GBRT models and individual indices show that the low flow years are easier to be identified than the high flow years. The result of this study highlights the skill from the Southern Hemisphere circulation systems for forecasting summer streamflow of the Yangtze River. Results of relative influences of predictors in GBRT models and AUC of individual indices indicate some key ocean-atmospheric indices, such as the Multivariate ENSO Index and the 500-hPa height of the east of Australia.

Spatial and temporal patterns of microbial mats and associated invertebrates along an Antarctic stream

Microbial biofilms are biological hotspots in many alpine and polar ecosystems, but the controls on and functional significance of their fauna are little known. We studied cyanobacterial mats and the underlying sediment in a glacial meltwater stream in the McMurdo Dry valleys, Antarctica. We investigated mat biomass (total and phototrophic), diatoms, and micro-meiofauna (nematodes, rotifers, and tardigrades) at nine sites along a 1670 m stream reach in a cold, low-flow growing season, and in a warmer growing season in which peak flows (above 100 L s−1) scoured the mats. Diatom and invertebrate communities were not related, but mat biomass in the low-flow year was negatively related to nematode abundance, including that of the omnivore Eudorylaimus. In the high flow year that followed, invertebrate abundance was reduced in the mats, diatom community structure was altered, and mat biomass was higher. The difference in invertebrate abundance between years was greater in mats in upstream reaches, where the greatest increases in flow velocity may have occurred, and was negligible in mats in downstream reaches as well as in the sediment beneath the mats. Integrating our results with previous findings, we generate two predictive hypotheses to be tested in glacial meltwater streams: (1) under peak flows invertebrates decline in the microbial mats, while (2) the sediment beneath the mats is a refuge from the flow disturbance. Our results also suggest that, under stable flow conditions, microinvertebrate grazers could exert top-down control on microbial mat biomass.

FLUCTUATION OF RIVER NETWORK WATER ENVIRONMENTAL CARRYING CAPACITY IN A COMPLICATED RIVER-LAKE SYSTEM

Aiming at river network in a complicated river-lake system, a new water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) calculation method was presented based on multi-objectives including water quality objectives for rivers, water quality objectives for control sections, pollution zones length at the sewage outlets and pollution zones area at the external lake inlets. The river network to the northwest of Lake Taihu was selected as the study area. Based on this new method, the WECC fluctuation was analyzed by 1-2D coupled numerical model which had been validated against the field data. Results showed that WECC changes obviously among different hydrological years, and the WECC for COD is 68938.8 metric tons in high flow year, which is 15.4% and 35.0% higher than that in normal flow year and low flow year. The WECC variation with time in different hydrological years is basically similar that the WECC in flood (May-October) season is markedly larger than that in dry season. While the fluctuation range of the WECC varies with hydrological conditions, which is higher in high flow year than that in normal flow year and low flow year.