Low-carbon Pathways Research Articles

Investigation of Diverse Urban Carbon Emission Reduction Pathways in China: Based on the Technology–Organization–Environment Framework for Promoting Socio-Environmental Sustainability

In the context of global carbon emissions and climate change, identifying context-specific low-carbon pathways for urban areas is critical for achieving socio-environmental sustainability. This study applies the technology–organization–environment (TOE) framework to examine the driving mechanisms and the diversity in carbon reduction pathways across 81 cities in China. Utilizing partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and necessary condition analysis (NCA), this research assesses the roles of technological, organizational, and environmental drivers in urban carbon reduction. Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) is employed to uncover distinct carbon reduction pathways and causal asymmetries between cities. The findings reveal that technological, organizational, and environmental factors significantly drive carbon reduction, with technological and organizational factors playing the central roles. Environmental factors exert primarily indirect effects, interacting with technological and organizational drivers. This study categorizes cities into three distinct carbon reduction models: cities with high carbon-neutral potential primarily leverage technological innovation and energy efficiency optimization; cities with moderate potential integrate technology and policy, emphasizing green landscape planning to achieve balanced development; and cities with lower carbon reduction potential are mainly policy-driven, constrained by technological and resource limitations. This study underscores the role of computational modeling in providing valuable insights for the development of context-tailored carbon reduction strategies. It highlights the synergetic interactions among technological, organizational, and environmental factors, offering essential guidance for advancing sustainable development planning and facilitating the low-carbon transition of cities and communities.

Energy and climate policy implications on the deployment of low-carbon ammonia technologies

The economic feasibility of low-carbon ammonia production pathways, such as steam methane reforming with carbon capture and storage, biomass gasification, and electrolysis, is assessed under various policy frameworks, including subsidies, carbon pricing, and renewable hydrogen regulations. Here, we show that employing a stochastic techno-economic analysis at the plant level and a net present value approach under the US Inflation Reduction Act reveals that carbon capture and biomass pathways demonstrate strong economic potential due to cost-effectiveness and minimal public support needs. Conversely, the electrolytic pathway faces significant economic challenges due to higher costs and lower efficiency. We conclude that efficient decarbonization of ammonia production requires adapting the Haber-Bosch process for variable bioenergy quality, ensuring safe CO2 transport and storage, advancing research to lower costs and improve efficiency in renewable energy and storage technologies, as well as creating a technologically neutral policy framework.

Decarbonization pathways promote improvements in cement quality and reduce the environmental impact of China’s cement industry

The cement industry plays a key role in emission reduction efforts, but cement quality is rarely considered in low-carbon development analyses. Here we design three cement quality transformation routes in response to China’s cement quality improvement program and analyse the corresponding low-carbon development pathways via a bottom-up integrated assessment model. Results show that cement quality improvements trigger a 14.6% increase in energy consumption and emissions in business-as-usual scenarios in 2060. Compared with the base year, raising the environmental taxes to 46.8 Chinese Yuan per equivalent unit saves up to 75.1% of carbon dioxide emissions and 25.0% of fuel consumption from the high-quality-cement scenario by 2060. Carbon capture and storage contributes up to 77% of the emission reduction. The reduction in cement demand conserves 17.3% more energy than the high-cement-demand scenario does in 2060. Collaborative waste treatment is expected to replace 22.4% of fuel consumption in the cement industry in 2060.

Optimum low-carbon transformation pathways of China’s iron and steel industry towards carbon neutrality based on a dynamic CGE model

Low-carbon transformation pathways of the iron and steel industry play a significant role towards achieving the carbon neutrality target by 2060. This study explores the low-carbon transformation pathways of China’s iron and steel industry in 2060 under different emission reduction policy scenarios by adopting a modified dynamic computable general equilibrium model. We found that: (1) China’s crude steel production will peak in 2024–2026, with a value of approximately 10.49 × 102–11.11 × 102 Mt. (2) Four integrated policy scenarios (C1T1E2: carbon trading policy, carbon tax, and renewable energy policy; C1T6E2; C6T1E2; and C6T6E2) have the most potential to achieve the carbon neutrality target by 2060; their remaining CO2 emissions are 2.52 × 102, 1.99 × 102, 1.21 × 102 and 0.69 × 102 in 2060, respectively. (3) The projected CO2 emissions per ton steel from 2020 to 2060, of which the impact degree in the carbon trading market policy scenario shows the most difference, fluctuated from 0.81 t CO2/t under the C1 scenario to 0.42 t CO2/t under the C6 scenario in 2060. (4) The reduction degree of energy consumption per ton steel performed the best in the integrated policy scenarios, of which the integrated C6T6E2 scenario (82 kgce/t in 2060) had the most effect on energy consumption per ton steel, followed by C6T1E2 (101 kgce/t) and C1T6E2 (125 kgce/t).

Is net zero net positive? – Opportunities and challenges for pursuing a socio-economically sensitive net-zero transition for India

ABSTRACT At COP26 in Glasgow, India announced a long-term ambition to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070. Existing emissions-economy modelling studies highlight that India’s emissions show no sign of peaking before mid-century and will not reach net zero by 2070 in a business-as-usual scenario with current policies. Using a mixed methodology of expert elicitation and system dynamics modelling, this article examines the policy gap that needs to be bridged for India to realize its net zero by 2070 commitment. The study discusses a socio-economically sensitive policy mix that could set India on a trajectory to peak its emissions in a decade and zero out its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by mid-century, leaving about one gigaton of other greenhouse gases to be decarbonized by 2070 to meet India’s net-zero goal. The policy mix realizes this goal while maintaining the government’s fiscal stability, and increasing employment and GDP beyond business-as-usual. The trajectory reported here is one of many possible low-carbon development pathways that could potentially be a net socio-economic positive for India. However, barriers such as the country’s lack of clean energy innovation and industrial policies, the gap between its domestic manufacturing capacity and deployment requirements, individual sector readiness for decarbonization, and the distributional implications of government revenue shifts through the energy transition remain significant challenges that need to be addressed to realize these potential socio-economic benefits of decarbonization.

Feasible low-carbon technological pathway: Sustainable development strategies in the vanadium titanium steel industry

Steel is an important raw material for human development, and steel emissions are the world's largest source of industrial carbon emissions. Therefore, it is urgent to control carbon emissions in this field and formulate a low-carbon development pathway. However, most of the existing studies focus on the macro level of the steel industry, and there are few studies on industry segmentation. The vanadium titanium steel (VTS) sub-sector is a key area for low-carbon development of steel industry. Achieving carbon neutrality in this sector is crucial for meeting international climate goals. This research takes a leading VTS enterprise as the research object, using carbon accounting and life cycle assessment (LCA) to map emissions across the four sub-units and each smelting stage of the enterprise. The study introduces the LC2MVTS/FP-FB (Low carbon concept model of vanadium titanium steel/four pillars and five beams) framework, which integrates energy, resources, information, and carbon sequestration technology to advance towards carbon neutrality. Based on the conceptual model framework, a feasible low-carbon technology pathway for VTS industry is proposed. Additionally, the research evaluates the LC2MVTS/FP-FB model's reliability and accuracy through the carbon neutrality technology analytic hierarchy process and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, offering valuable insights for the VTS industry's sustainable transformation globally.

Analysis of Technological Pathways and Development Suggestions for Blast Furnace Low-Carbon Ironmaking

Under the global dual-carbon background, heightened public awareness of climate change and strengthened carbon taxation policies are increasing pressure on the steel industry to transition. Given the urgent need for carbon reduction, the exploration of low-carbon pathways in a blast furnace (BF) metallurgy emerges as crucial. Evaluating both asset retention and technological maturity, the development of low-carbon technologies for BFs represents the most direct and effective technical approach. This article introduces global advancements in low-carbon metallurgical technologies for BFs, showcasing international progress encompassing hydrogen enrichment, oxygen enrichment, carbon cycling technologies, biomass utilization, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies. Hydrogen enrichment is identified as the primary technological upgrade currently, although its carbon emission reduction potential is limited to 10% to 30%, insufficient to fundamentally address high carbon emissions from BFs. Therefore, this article innovatively proposes a comprehensive low-carbon metallurgical process concept with the substitution of carbon-neutral biomass fuels at the source stage—intensification of hydrogen enrichment in the process stage—fixation of CCUS at the end stage (SS-IP-FE). This process integrates the cleanliness of biomass, the high-efficiency of hydrogen enrichment, and the thoroughness of carbon fixation through CCUS, synergistically enhancing overall effectiveness. This integrated strategy holds promise for achieving a 50% reduction in carbon emissions from BFs in the long processes. Critical elements of these core technologies are analyzed, assessing their cost-effectiveness and emission reduction potential, underscoring comprehensive low-carbon metallurgy as a pivotal direction for future steel industry development with high technological feasibility and emission reduction efficacy. The article also proposes a series of targeted recommendations, suggesting short-term focus on technological optimization, the medium-term enhancement of technology research and application, and the long-term establishment of a comprehensive low-carbon metallurgical system.

Optimization of regional power low-carbon transition pathways in China under differentiated tradable green certificates trading models

In line with China's carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the widespread adoption of renewable energy has become a key global and national trend. Tradable Green Certificates (TGC), used as a policy tool to implement the Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) system, stimulate the supply and demand for renewable energy. China's current TGC trading model comprises Electricity Certificate Combination (ECC) and Electricity Certificate Separation (ECS). These models lead to varying low-carbon transition pathways in the regional power sector. This study investigates the development trends of low-carbon power under different TGC models, aiming to identify the optimal transition path. By formulating policy parameters from a global optimization perspective, this study considers factors such as power balance, natural resource allocation, technological constraints, and carbon reduction policies. Using a bottom-up optimization model for energy expansion, the study analyzes the impacts of different market models and carbon emission reduction pressures on China's low-carbon power transition from 2023 to 2050. The recommendation is first to use the ECC model to promote renewable energy development by 2030, then transition to the ECS model to optimize TGC benefits, achieving a balanced approach to carbon reduction, economic costs, and social costs for the sustainable development of electricity.

Analysis of Low-Carbon Contribution Pathways for Resource-Based Cities under the Dual Carbon Goals: The Case of Tangshan, China

China is still the biggest carbon emission entity at present, which is mostly produced by resource-based cities. It means that actions to control carbon emissions in order to mitigate the greenhouse effect are urgently needed. The purpose of this study is to examine resource-based cities' low-carbon development strategies after the dual carbon regulations were put into place. Using a literature review as the research technique, this paper uses Tangshan as an example to explore the current condition, difficulties that exist, and Policy recommendations for resource-based cities looking to improve in a low-carbon manner. The result shows that there are now some clear issues with resource-based cities' low-carbon growth routes: high reliance on high-emission industries, the incomplete top-level design, and “the intensifying competitive pressure from surrounding cities. The following optimization suggestions have been proposed for the above-mentioned issues. The optimization direction of resource-based areas should be to clarify the top-level design, increase competitiveness, and continue to increase industrial carbon emission reduction. In other words, this kind of cities should reduce the dependence of urban development on high-polluting industries and attract talent to cope with external competitive pressures requires the government to coordinate and cooperate across departments, so that under the dual carbon goals they can achieve carbon reduction in resource-based cities which are under the dual carbon goals.

A Green Economy Model for India: Technical Summary of Methods and Data Used

The green economy model for India is a system dynamics model that has been customized to the national context in the structure of the model and input data. It also takes into account the key priorities for the country, incorporating primary and allied sectors affecting climate change at the national level. The model has been developed jointly by World Resources Institute India and KnowlEdge Srl (Switzerland); it is based on a Green Economy Model (GEM) published by Andrea M. Bassi (Bassi 2015). The GEM has also been used in other countries to explore low-carbon development pathways; the model is customized to the context in which it is applied. The model is intended to provide tools for making informed policy decisions that would take India to a low-carbon development pathway. This technical note focuses on the structure of the model, the motivation behind developing it, and the data and assumptions accompanying it.

A systematic review of decarbonization pathway and modeling conception in iron and steel industry at micro-, meso-, and macro-levels.

To meet the carbon-neutral goal in 2050, an accelerated transition of decarbonization is needed in the iron and steel industry. Lots of decarbonization path models are recently being used to analyze the technology pathways, industrial structure adjustments, and short- or long-term policies for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Thus, systematic insight is required for better making sense of the status quo and differences in low-carbon transition pathways at different levels. This paper reviews the carbon emission reduction of steel production routes and summarizes the decarbonization models from micro-, meso-, and macro-level perspectives, respectively. First, we systematically analyze the capacity and potential of both available and emerging technologies in the iron and steel production process. Additionally, we conduct a theoretical analysis of the bottom-up models currently used as effective tools to assess decarbonization technology pathways. Subsequently, pathways and models in terms of industrial synergy are elaborated. Policy guidance and market support are explored to overcome the challenges of collaborative carbon reduction faced by global steel producers. The characteristics of top-down models for supporting carbon reduction are also discussed. Finally, gaps in the literature and future research agendas are identified. Advancing this research could enrich discussions on steel industry decarbonization and provide clearer assessments of modeling approaches. The results indicate that existing energy-saving technologies in the iron and steel industry have limited carbon reduction capacity. Significant reduction requires coordinated efforts with upstream and downstream industries, particularly in hydrogen and power sectors, along with financial support and favorable policies.

A cost-effectiveness comparison of renewable energy pathways for decarbonizing heavy-duty vehicles in China

Decarbonizing heavy-duty vehicles is becoming increasingly important, yet multiple renewable-based decarbonization pathways have not been compared systematically. To fill this gap, this study develops a techno-economic and environmental model that integrates the fuel cycle and vehicle cycle to assess these pathways for China. The model includes two energy storage technologies: batteries and hydrogen, three energy transmission options, and two vehicle types: fuel cell electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles. Five distinct low-carbon pathways are evaluated on a ton-kilometer basis, including cost, greenhouse gas emissions, and abatement cost relative to conventional diesel trucks. Results indicate that the most cost-effective battery electric vehicle pathway offers a 7 % lower ton-km cost than diesel trucks for a 49-ton gross vehicle weight. Battery electric vehicle charging combined with hydrogen for power generation is more cost-effective than direct use of hydrogen in fuel cell electric vehicles. All studied pathways can achieve over 80 % emission reduction compared to diesel trucks, with fuel cell electric vehicle pathways having the highest abatement costs of 103–117 USD/tonCO2. Analysis of the impact of gross vehicle weight and vehicle range indicates that battery electric vehicle pathways outperform fuel cell electric vehicle pathways across most dimensions. Costs of battery electric vehicle pathways do increase sharply for vehicle ranges beyond about 700 km, and fuel cell electric vehicles become more cost-effective relative to battery electric vehicles for ranges above approximately 1100 km, although all pathways are much more costly than diesel trucks at long ranges. The sensitivity analysis highlights the importance of powertrain efficiency and cost projections show that fuel cell electric heavy-duty vehicles can achieve cost-parity before 2030. These results highlight the desirability of promoting the adoption of heavier battery electric vehicles and providing more targeted subsidies for long-range fuel cell electric vehicles.

Pathways for decarbonizing China's iron and steel industry using cost-effective mitigation technologies: An integrated analysis with top-down and bottom-up models

The iron and steel industry (ISI), the second largest carbon emitter, produces 16 % of China's CO2 emissions, and its decarbonization will therefore play an important role in achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. This study identifies underlying low-carbon transition pathways of the ISI towards 2050, through investigating macro-level mitigation policies and technological advances. An integrated assessment model that integrates a top-down CGE method and a bottom-up objective planning method was constructed. The results show that the combination of mitigation policies and technological measures would substantially reduce CO2 emissions in the ISI, with the remaining 140 Mt to 520 Mt by 2050. Carbon mitigation in ISI in the short term mainly benefits from the technology retrofitting, the reduction of steel demand, which accounts for 17.8 % and 32.1 %, respectively. Breakthrough technologies of scrap-based electric arc furnace (EAF), hydrogen-based direct reduction (HDR-EAF) and carbon capture and storge (CCS), would play a fundamental role in reducing the CO2 emissions especially after 2030, contributing to 32.1 %, 16.0 % and 13.8 % of emission reduction, respectively. Of the 41-technologies assessed, 8-key technologies jointly mitigate over 55 % of CO2 emissions. The cost-effectiveness and mitigation potential of technologies would provide reference to policymaker for the mitigation in China's ISI.

Life cycle carbon emission assessment and carbon payback period analysis for the regeneration of old residential areas in cold regions: Case study in Qingdao, China

Communities urgently need to explore green and low-carbon transformation pathways due to high energy consumption and carbon emissions. However, existing studies lack a comprehensive assessment of carbon emissions and analysis regarding carbon reduction during renovation of old residential areas in cold regions. Therefore, this study employs a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and the payback period method to evaluate carbon emissions throughout the life cycle comprehensively. It constructs a carbon-emission calculation model based on LCA, specifically tailored to the retrofitting of old residential areas in cold cities. Additionally, it investigates the effectiveness of three typical retrofit measures undertaken in Qingdao, a region located in the cold A zone, focusing on whole-life-cycle energy savings and carbon reduction. The findings reveal that the average annual carbon emission intensity per unit area for Cases 1, 2, and 3 is 12.59 kg-CO2 e/(m2·a), 27.05 kg-CO2 e/(m2·a), and 23.39 kg-CO2 e/(m2·a), respectively. Their corresponding carbon payback periods were 6.06, 7.23, and 16.00 years, respectively, which could be further shortened through material recycling. The environmental impact assessment of typical retrofitting measures contributes to the promotion of sustainable development. Furthermore, this study offers guidance for establishing an effective assessment system that supports the design of energy-saving retrofits.

Aluminum demand and low carbon development scenarios for major countries by 2050

Aluminum is a widely used energy-intensive material and the second largest source of carbon emissions from metal after steel. Global demand for aluminum has grown rapidly since 1970 and has shown a high correlation with population and economic growth. These factors have posed challenges to carbon reduction of aluminum industry. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate global aluminum demand and emissions to develop low carbon pathways. However, few studies have conducted a comprehensive analysis of the global aluminum industry. We develop different scenarios of joint abatement measures to explore pathways for the aluminum industry to significantly reduce carbon emissions by 2050. Three scenarios are considered, namely, moderate mitigation scenario (MMS), enhanced mitigation scenario (EMS), and deep mitigation scenario (DMS). The results show that: 1) Aluminum industry has a high potential for carbon emission reduction. The emissions in the three scenarios will be reduced by 33%, 77% and 85% by 2050 compared to 2020, respectively. 2) The carbon emission reduction effect of energy structure optimization and low carbon technology application is significant, with the use of clean energy playing a decisive role. 3) There is an inverse U-shaped curve relationship between per capita primary aluminum demand and per capita GDP. The aluminum demand in China and India is still growing at a high rate, and carbon emissions are always at the top. This study will effectively support the development of a low-carbon transition path for the global aluminum industry.

Navigating total-factor carbon emission efficiency in the digital era: A case study from industry structure, environmental regulations, and trade spillover

Digital technology innovation has become essential to China's sustainable, low-carbon social development strategy. However, its spatial impact on carbon reduction and efficiency is unclear. This study innovatively utilizes patent search to define digital technology innovation and spatial econometric modeling to assess its association with total-factor carbon emission efficiency (TCEE) in 286 Chinese cities. There are some exciting research findings: (1) Digital technology innovation effectively accelerates local TCEE and contributes to TCEE in surrounding cities through spatial spillover effects. (2) The heterogeneous results show that digital technology innovation increases the local TCEE in the western region, inhibits the local TCEE in the eastern and northeastern areas, and shows apparent positive spillover effects in both the eastern and western areas; the positive effects of digital technology innovation on TCEE in non-resource cities and small cities are all-encompassing. (3) Both industrial structure upgrading and optimization can enhance the spatial spillover effect of digital technology innovation on TCEE; both formal and informal environmental regulations (ER) can effectively accelerate the TCEE enhancement effect of digital technology innovation on local and surrounding cities. (4) Digital technology innovation affects the TCEE of trading partners through domestic bilateral trade. This manuscript provides an actionable reference for measuring digital technology innovation and China's path to achieving an efficient low-carbon pathway.

Carbon Abatement Effect of Low-Carbon City Pilot Policy: Insights from a Time-Varying DID Model

The low-carbon city pilot (LCCP) policy constitutes a crucial element in China’s endeavors to attain its carbon peak target. Thoroughly analyzing the carbon abatement effects and mechanisms of the LCCP policy is essential for supporting China’s goals of achieving low-carbon sustainability. We use panel data from 1997 to 2019, covering 249 Chinese cities, for a quasi-natural experiment. This study assesses the effect of the LCCP project on urban carbon emission intensity (CEI) using a difference-in-difference (DID) model. Furthermore, the article conducts analyses on policy coordination effects, impact mechanisms, and spatial spillover effects. Our research findings indicate that the LCCP policy substantially decreases urban CEI, a result that withstands a battery of robustness tests. The carbon abatement effect of LCCP policies is dynamic and typically endures for three years. Subsequent investigations unveil a cooperative impact between the LCCP policy and the carbon trading pilot policy. The decrease of urban CEI under the LCCP policy is primarily attributed to command and market tools, although the efficacy of voluntary tools remains unrealized. From the standpoint of adjacent nonpilot cities, our conclusions do not endorse the presence of spatial spillover effect for the LCCP project. The insights derived from our findings offer crucial guidance for policymakers exploring low-carbon models and pathways.

Tandem Integration of Biological and Electrochemical Catalysis for Efficient Polyester Upcycling under Ambient Conditions.

Excessive production of waste polyethylene terephthalate (PET) poses an ecological challenge, which necessitates developing technologies to extract the values from end-of-life PET. Upcycling has proven effective in addressing the low profitability of current recycling strategies, yet existing upcycling technologies operate under energy-intensive conditions. Here we report a cascade strategy to steer the transformation of PET waste into glycolate in an overall yield of 92.6% under ambient conditions. The cascade approach involves setting up a robust hydrolase with 95.6% PET depolymerization into ethylene glycol (EG) monomer within 12 h, followed by an electrochemical process initiated by a CO-tolerant Pd/Ni(OH)2 catalyst to convert the EG intermediate into glycolate with high Faradaic efficiency of 97.5%. Techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment indicate that, compared with the widely adopted electrochemical technology that heavily relies on alkaline pretreatment for PET depolymerization, our designed enzymatic-electrochemical approach offers a cost-effective and low-carbon pathway to upgrade PET.

Estimating terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage change in the YREB caused by land-use change under SSP-RCPs scenarios

Terrestrial ecosystems, as an essential carbon sink of atmospheric CO2, play an important role in balancing the global carbon cycle. Land-use and land-cover changes (LUCCs) are the major factors in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) change. However, they are not yet sure how future LUCCs would affect the TECS in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) to meet China's carbon-neutral goal. We simulated eight land-use change scenarios and used these to estimate the YREB's TECS and its 2020–2060 variation by coupling the spatially explicit projections of LUCCs under the latest IPCC, combining shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with datasets on terrestrial ecosystem carbon density dataset. Results show that: 1) the total TECS of the YREB in 2020 is ∼28.07 Gt. Spatially, TECS in the YREB focused on Sichuan and Yunnan (∼13.35 Gt), which plays a crucial role in balancing the regional carbon cycle; its losses are in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Hunan provinces; Yunnan is the potential region with future carbon sink enhancement in the YREB. 2) Compared to the TECS change under eight land-use scenarios, the low-carbon and sustainable development pathways are the priority chosen by humans. 3) The replacement of vast forest land with cropland and urban expansion are the key factor of TECS change in the YREB. 4) Land management policies (i.e., Cultivated land requisition-compensation balance) should balance the conflicts between food self-sufficiency and the carbon sink rather than only the dynamic balance in quantity. Our study aims to provide data support for the government in planning future development pathways and refining carbon emission reduction strategies to assist in carbon trading and compensation and achieve the YREB's dual-carbon goal.

Potential of hydrogen and thermal storage in the long-term transition of the power sector: A case study of China

Hydrogen and thermal storage can reduce cost of long-term and large-scale energy storage with high efficiency and low or even zero carbon emissions. Their potential in the low-carbon transition pathway of an energy system with rapid growth of energy demand, large shifting of energy supply structure and limited investment budget remains unclear. A long-term power generation planning model is proposed in this paper, featuring detailed technical and economic characteristics of hydrogen and thermal storage. The power supply system of China is selected as a case study, due to its urgent need for low-carbon transition and complex spatial characteristics. Results show that the application of hydrogen and thermal storage can benefit the development of volatile renewable power generation technologies, facilitate the transition towards zero or even negative carbon emissions while simultaneously reducing power supply costs. Hydrogen is expected to be mainly produced in spring and consumed in summer while heat is expected to be primarily generated in autumn and consumed in winter. Shifting from thermal storage to hydrogen storage might happen around 2050 in accordance to the low-carbon transition progress.